Welcome to The Profits Wednesday form. We are blessed with a fairly strong line-up this week and I think there are quite a few strong bets today! As always, we hope your form matches up with yours. Good luck and happy punting!
Betfair are running Promotions for Sandown today so if you are looking to bet with their Tote Extra product, you can win the ‘Three Times a Charm’ promotion again today, get a refund on Quaddie that loses first leg but wins the other three and most importantly, get refunded on any horse that runs 2nd by less than 0.5L.
Best Bet
Sandown Race 6 Glenmaura
Best Value
Sandown Race 5 Gogonski
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Sandown Race 4
5 of these 7 runners have a chance so I am not putting my money in any corner. I do think Graceland is overs at the price though with form around Sari that has held up.
Strategy: Avoid
Sandown Race 5
Gogonski: A huge price here today. Down 3kg after last start going against his own pattern. Up to a distance that is more suitable and in this big time. Beat Durnford here two back in a 14 horse field in equal class and up 0.5kg today. More than double the price and these runners are not as good as Durnford.
Van Rossum: Quality horse who is going great guns this prep. Ran strong enough here last start and equal weight today. Every chance today.
Tilla Bell Rings: Looks to be unders even though he is a very good horse. Up in class today and equal weight. Has every chance and should measure up, but will he get the perfect run? Big questions on that.
Escado: Huge run first up and down in class today off equal weights. Big issue is getting stuck back the rail from barrier 2.
Backstedt: Big win in MUCH easier company, but has claims off the weight.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: The price for Gogonski is all wrong. I am of the belief that he should be $6 or shorter here and will be going 3 units to place to 1.5 units to win.
Sandown Race 6
Glenmaura: Huge run last start behind Oamaru Princess and they gapped the rest by 1.5L or more. Only up 0.5kg today and speed maps to lead up instead of taking a sit. On previous form, can do this and win.
Mama’s Choice: Hayes runner returning today after months off. 57.5kg seems fair for this race but would need to have improved a lot.
Euphorbia: Ran very well last prep. First up today for a while and up 5kg on last start (down in class). Can run well.
Spot On Maggie: Poor first up but did have to run on from very far back. Down in class again today and up to 60kg. Looks harshly treated at weights but wouldn’t shock to win today.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Very keen on Glenmaura after first up run and as long as Beriman gives a good ride out front, will be winning. Only concern is the distance. I would rather go E/W here instead of 3 place 1 to win type of ratio due to be ing a front runner today and rather put a stake hedge at around $2s.
Sandown Race 7
Three horses stand out here.
Festina Lente: Won 4 from 8 at distance, won 3 from 3 first up. Worst record is with 59+kg with only 1 win and 0 other places from 3 starts. This seems to be a much easier race than he should be ready to win. Big chance.
Rugged Cross: Waller runner first up. Was scratched when meant to run last week. Weighted to win off 55kg when you consider was running in much harder races than this in England. The one to beat.
Cross of Gold: First up this prep went close behind Supreme Warrior and then 0.5L 2nd at Flemington behind Lampedusa who would probably be a favourite here. After that seems to have gone a little bit backwards up in weights and up in class, but back in correct class today and off 52.5kg after claim, is rated to go close.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Hard to split the top two here in Rugged Cross and Festina Lente but I am leaning towards Rugged Cross to win this with a smaller bet on Festina Lente who I have rated 2nd. The markets also have it this way so it works out well.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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