Welcome to The Profits form guide for Sandown on 6 December 2014. The rail is out 4 today from the true position last meeting. I’m expecting leaders to have a good go of it today while you will be able to win from every position. There is a lot of strong tempo mapped races today so expect some over-reaction in the betting after certain races. A strong card on offer and we have put up one of our most confident bets of the last few months. There looks to be a ton of value on offer and i’m very happy to take on quite a few of the favourites today. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Sandown Race 5 De Little Engine
Next Best Bet
Sandown Race 3 Rough Justice
Best Each-Way Bet
Sandown Race 6 Danger Close
Best Value
Sandown Race 4 Leveraction
Sandown Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 6
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 6, 7, 9
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 5, 6, 8, 12
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 8, 14, 16
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Sandown Race 1
Sneak A Peek: Haven’t seen him for 8 months since last prep when didn’t show anything. Previous prep 3rd in a Group 1 over 2400m. Better seen over further but Moody should have him ready. Weighted nicely on ratings of a Group 2 winner and Group 1 placed horse. Probably finds best on Heavy, but good record on Good also.
Zabisco: 3L behind Atacama at Flemington was a strong enough run two back and then a good run last start at Sandown beat Pheidon who has some nice form lines. Up 3kg here is the issue.
Jacquniot Bay: Continues to run well and improve. From barrier 5 today, he will be much clsoer than the last two starts which has seen him just too far back. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the improvement back to the 1600m here.
Eximus: Doesn’t seem to win out of turn. Well beaten by Zuma Roc last start but beat the rest. Not exactly the best weighted here today but barrier 2 will mean he gets every chance. Rate the form around Eclair Big Bang two back as well. Prefer on a soft track.
Backstedt: Had every chance last start leading with an only average tempo if you check the times. Weighted okay today but has to improve from that last start run.
Sweet As Bro: Very very disappointing run first up… but from WFA-G3 back to Open Class and up to 1600m.. down to 54.5kg from 59kg as well. Barrier 1, maps much better today.
De Fine Lago: Best seen over much further. Didn’t show enough last prep either.
Fulgur: First up run didn’t impress. Never won second up either but generally improves. Still has to improve more here especially at weights. Needs the run.
Comments: Sweet As Bro is undefeated second up and back in class here today up to 1600m on a suitable track from a good barrier, close enough to the speed, weighted well… i’m willing to risk the form here today.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Backing Sweet As Bro to win.
Sandown Race 2
A tough race on paper with a lack of matching form. Boundary deserves to be favourite and if i was betting here, that is where my money would go considering the huge run last start.
Comments: Sitting this one out.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Boundary to win.
Sandown Race 3
Boomwaa: Measured up in Group company. Always found a few too good after beating Lockroy in 2013. Best runs have been over the 1000m and on a track with a bit of give in it.
Rough Justice: Found one too good the last two starts. Genuine horse who runs solid races and from barrier 5 today will get the 1/1 position and have every chance if ridden correctly.
Bullpit: Poorly weighted today giving Rough Justice 3kg today, poor barrier… i can’t have.
Our Kaboom: Won very well on wet tracks last prep but well beaten on dryer in classy races. Looks a good type but best over further and wetter.
Sparsholt: Blocked for runs but still got the win last start. Been off for nearly 2 months so long time between runs and change of stable also… Has ability.
Ms Mazetti: Good 2YO runs. Returned nicely enough at Flemington when just slow away which cost a good spot. Will have improved from that run… best seen on tracks with sting out the issue.
Good Offa: Ran well enough last start at MV but has to find a length or two at very least here. Don’t ignore.
Liminal: Strong time over the 1000m at Cranbourne in maiden. Got it easy but not so easy from a good barrier which meant he got a nice run into the race. Only had to be ridden out for 300m and whipped final 200m… this is much harder.. 51.5kg today… weighted to win.. but wide barrier will he have to do too much?
Lock And Load: Did a lot wrong last start. Happy to take on in this class but could find a place.
Sang Choi Bao: Decent enough win last start at Mornington. Has to find much more here though. Love the naming of this horse out of Flowerdrum!
Comments: Liminal could be anything and off 51.5kg is hard to ignore. I had to watch the replay a few times and due to barrier and speed in the race, i’m willing to take the horse on here in this class. Barrier 3-4 and I would have been on at the price. Rough Justice or Ms Mazetti are the two I want to be around here today. I think Rough Justice has the most upside on a firm track today from the positive barrier.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Rough Justice to win.
Sandown Race 4
Orientaped: Ran very well last start as favouriter in country cup but couldn’t get the win. Weighted well enough here to be a chance. Best seen on wetter tracks.
Generous Beau: Back in class here and weighted nicely with claim. Up to positive distance but never won at it.. but placed around this 4 from 5. Needs to improve still, but barrier helps.
Taiyoo: A little startled by the price being bet for Taiyoo today. Yes, he has improved each run in this start, but $3 favourite? I understand this isn’t a very classy race, but I can make claims for others that are over the odds. Does like the track. Barrier a concern.
Leveraction: Won a Open class race three back at Moonee Valley and then ran very well over the Flemington carnival for third at Flemington in a fast time.. not disgraced last start either at Donald. Won at track, loves it Good… looks value back in class here.
Practiced: Two runs back from more than a year and a half off. Shown nothing. No thanks.
Aurum Spirit: Blocked for runs last start. Two back run beat home Leveraction at Flemington. Maps out the back today again and need luck and to get a solid run. Respect.
Honey Steel’s Gold: Ran home well enough first up over the 1400m. Last start showed nothing at Flemington. Weighted well enough here today and at best can go close.
Red Inca: Impossible horse to figure out. Had his chance last two runs and shown nothing. Looking for wetter track it looks like now. Pass.
Duplicity Jones: I like this horse as a racehorse, but certainly doesn’t win out of turn. Firs tup ran well off the 60kg out the front, but was flattered by the bias. Last start couldn’t make up enough ground but ran well. Improve again today but has to sit midfield to have a chance. Can do from barrier. Price is unders for mine though.
Comments: At the prices, I’m willing to take on Taiyoo and Duplicity Jones here today. Leveraction is the horse I want to be on here. Rates very well off all last 3 runs and place price represents sensational value.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Leveraction 2 units to place 1 unit to win.
Sandown Race 5
Aggregator: Very good horse at his best over this distance but has been a long way from that recently. Last start very poor and same with previous start. Can’t back on last two runs even back in this class.
Elusive King: Given no chance with ride last start but wa snever really in it anyway. Outclassed here on current form.
Great Lane: Strong 3rd to Mujadale at Ararat two back has to be respected. Last start ran well enough but furhter forward than wanted. Probably ignore and rate on previous runs. Looks a chance at good odds.
De Little Engine: What did he actually beat last start is a massive question for mine. Up to 2400m and this track suits. Making his way back through the grades and this isn’t much more difficult than last start.
Martinvast: Good run last start 2nd to Averau who has won two in a row but previous start wasn’t good enough to win this even if got unlucky. Poor barrier today and I don’t trust the Averau form against other runners here.
Rodway: God an easy win in much easier grade last start. Weighted okay but this looks a step beyond him this prep.
Murphy’s Delight: Every chance last start behind De Little Engine and well beaten. Poorly weighted.
She’s Pretentious: Got a decent win last start at Sandown over 2100m in much easier class. Wasn’t a bad run previously at Flemington for 6th in mares grade and looks suited up in distance again. Looks a strong place prospect.
Melaleuca: Continues to run well this prep but only 1 win from last 4 runs. DIstance increase iffy for mine if i’m honest.. will be there or there abouts.
Comments: When the dust has settled, I keep coming back to De Little Engine as having at least a length on the rest of the field. Great Lane looks the blowout danger but the horse really wants a bit of rain to find his best. It won’t cost a lot to do so I will be savering Great Lane as his last two runs on Good were strong enough to figure.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: De Little Engine to win. Saver Great Lane.
Sandown Race 6
Lord of the Sky: First up last prep 0.1L 2nd to Danger Close… up 8.5kg today while Danger Close stays at 54kg! Did have breathing issues that day.. but the time was blistering so i’m not sure that was exactly it? Next start and run after were very very good. Shown best on a wetter surface than this though IMO and 60kg today, very happy to be against him here first up with a long straight.
It Is Written: Very strong run last start at MV and probably should have been in the finish if not blocked for runs. Up 2.5kg today is an issue but should appreciate the track and longer straight to have every chance. Not my top pick though.
Go The Knuckle: Consistent horse who found best at Moonee Valley and Caulfield while the longer straights have been nice runs but not his best. Key is a good track for this bloke and he gets it today. Runs well first up. Respect his class… loves it short as well and speed on. At weight though not sure he outsprints danger close?
Eight Bills: Going very well this prep all things considered. Can improve onwards agian today and suited by step back to 1000m. Will be running home well… place chance for mine.
Mr Make Believe: He was actually an improved run on first up run last start. Do they push forward today? Has the ability to lead… but there has to be no way they push forward and test their own horse. Run well enough though.
Danger Close: Should have won first up at the valley over 950m. Up to 1000m today and back to Sandown where he has won 2 of his 3 races… also won at Flemington last prep as well… loves a long straight and runs very well 2nd up. Newitt onboard and barrier 1, will have last shot at them.. weighted to win.
The Monstar: Very long first prep that went from country to city. Seemed to measure up well enough in 3YO class in city but didn’t get the wins. Looks a good type but want to see a few runs into prep.
Tansy: Ran well enough last start at Bendigo but this is a big step up in class. Not well weighted today.
Crooner: Looking for a Good track and gets it here. Respected in betting. Could pressure for the lead.
Comments: Very much willing to take on Lord of the Sky today and expecting a strong tempo that will set the race up for Danger Close.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg 1: 1, 2, 3, 6
Strategy: Danger Close E/W
Sandown Race 7
Bec Said No Credit: Goes well first up. Goes well at these distances… goes well on good or slow or any type of surface. 60kg looks a little bit of a tall order though even from barrier 3.
Danestroem: Very strong run two back at Flemington… last start at Ballarat hard to control but looked to be beaten a long awy out even if she boxed on. Up to 1300m suitable i’d say.. but really needs a rail that is holding up for front runners to be considered a chance today. Never runs a bad race.
Kristy Lee: I thought her last start run was much improved compared to previous runs this prep. Weighted okay today and barrier 6 is positive. Improvement required still.
Athenian Girl: Strong form lines last prep progressing through the lower grades. Goes well first up but this is a massive step up in class. No thanks.
Every Faith: Best sene last prep over further distances than this. Just here for the run? Decent type.
Judical Rock: Start to finish strong run and just missed holding on last start with Politeness coming over the top of her. Back to 1300m suits here today and is massively advantaged today with 52.5kg. Barrier only issue but shouldn’t matter. Respect.
Petite Diablesse: Very strong win first up over 1200m but was a 6 horse race. 2nd horse did run another 2nd since over in Adelaide. Promising type.
Paddy’s Gem: Finally got her win this prep last start. This is MUCH harder. Happy to take on.
Cheeky Rozay: Very very very good win at course over 1200m last prep. Couldn’t repeat the effort the runs after that though. 51kg today looks suited and will appreciate the ground today. If fit enough looks a massive chance at huge odds.
Tycoon Tara: Couldn’t win a BM-64 last start but did run well. Won 1300m maiden last prep in solid time by 6L but only 5 runners in race. Happy to take on.
Romantic Spirit: Decent horse but this is a massive step up in class again. Pass.
Comments: After being on Danestroem last start, i’m happy to take the horse on here today. I think Judical Rock is weighted much better today and will appreciate the tempo to be able to run on when required. Cheeky Rozay has the blow-away ability in this race and is the huge value.. just an unknown how fit she will come back.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 6, 7, 9
Strategy: Judical Rock to win. Smaller bet Cheeky Rozay.
Sandown Race 8
Tallat: Strong start to finish win last start at Geelong beating a fairly average group of runners. I don’t exactly rate him here and expect a strong tempo to be set.
Heza Bargain: Good run last start to just beat Audino. Have to improve again today at weights to win but from barrier 4 maps very well.
Oerter: Progressed through the grades last prep…. but that was over 2000+. Needs further and the run.
Scelto: Very good stayer. Needs further than this.
Bel Rhythm: Very good run last start at Bendigo to beat home Godspiel. This form will stack up going forward and he maps very well today to swoop off the strong tempo that is expected with 55.5kg today.
Crime Fighter: Saw merit in the first up run with 61.5kg. Down to 57.5kg and up in distance slightly. Looking for further than this and wetter track to find best.
Heez Notorious: Showed absolutely nothing first up. Needs the run today.
Kincaple Chief: Eye-catching run last start behind Magnapal and Are There Any who won last night at MV to backup the form. Barrier 1 today maps to get a better run.. but never won on a good track a massive concern.
Audino: Didn’t have to really beat much last start at Cranbourne but it was a very good win with a biased fence. Not exactly well weighted here though really back in distance also. Tougher race.
Rose of Texas: Loves to lead and just not win. Last win over 2000m at Geelong. Will run well and just fade late.
Suite Success: Every chance last start at Ballarat but not good enough in much harder class. Back at same weight today looks positive.. up to 1500m a big jump. Others preferred.
Siegestor: Strong win first up over 1200m. Up to 1500m today which suits and even though up in class, weighted nicely based on that strong win.. Respect this runner.
Too Deadly: Much harder race today and has run ‘okay’ this prep without impressing massively. Back to dryer track at least suits.
Young Nicola: Ran well enough behind Holy Cow last start when missing start to suggest can improve here… can run a strong race.
Cee Cee ‘N’ Dry: Country BM-65 win last start.. not very impressive. Hard to rate here really.
Comments: No easy lead in this race. Expect the tempo to be strong with two leaders from the outside pushing forward and two from the inside wanting the lead also. Bel Rhythm the stand-out here for mine. Rates very well off the last start run. Maps well and weighted even better.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 5, 6, 8, 12
Strategy: Bel Rhythm E/W
Sandown Race 9
Cooldini: 66kg! Wow.. down to 63kg . Just here for a run.
Aeratus: Very strong last prep with five wins from 6 runs. Goes well at this distance but best found over further later into preps. Did win first up last prep and progressed to win very well in Open grade at Flemington. Barrier 2 maps very well.
Chile Express: Rate on two back run.. but even so, last start he ran so poorly and lost to petrify three back and even aeratus last prep who he meets worse at weights.
Onpicalo: Best runs have been over 1600m distance. Will push forward from wide barrier today and weighted okay in this grade, but others preferred at prices.
Morant: Well back in distance today and well back in class. Weighted very well back to this grade all things considered. Loves a Good surface and is suited by this distance. Don’t dismiss.
Petrify: Much better weighted today than previous start compared to others. Barrier 18 horrible though. Can’t back from this barrier.
Lonrockstar: Well backed last start at MV and almost got the cash. Beaten by the best run in the race. Back in class and strong rider on today in Hall. Always runs well at this track. Need speed on.
The New Boy: First up, he ran the best race i’ve seen from him in three preps. He ran on very well and apprecaited the run. Up in distance today suits and he could be ridden further forward today which would be ideal. Don’t dismiss the old boy!
Final Jest: Been winning in country grade. Weighted okay all things considered but will be a long way back and back in distance hurts.
Floatmyboat: Ran well enough last start at Flemington without exactly impressing. Has the ability and barrier 6 today will mean every chance.
Murcielaga: Has won first up previously. Best runs seen on wetter tracks. Pass today.
Kievann: Ran very well first up and is a horse who improves loads second up. 3YO winner. Never won on Good track is a massive issue.
Cross of Gold: Disappointing last start and no reason for it. Two back run was solid at Flemington down the straight. Up in class… 11 runs for 2 places at this class says it all.
Remagen Birdge: Won two in a row now and up in class again down 5kg. Has the ability to progress through the grades.
Live for Today: Best shown on wetter tracks over further. No thanks.
Beneficiary: Didn’t impress to win a BM-64 last start. Must find lengths.
Comments: If the real Aeratus turns up today, he blows them all away at these weights. For that reason, betting to win, no place betting.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 8, 14, 16
Strategy: Aeratus to win.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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