Welcome to The Profits form guide for Sandown on 3 September 2014. Well last Wednesday went with ease as our best bet of the year Charmed Harmony won here with ease. Hopefully Il Cavallo lines up here today and does the same for us. Saturday didn’t go to plan with Vain Queen being given a very questionable ride and being also unlucky in the straight, that is racing, I feel our money was very well placed there. The rest of the day didn’t go to plan either, that’s racing and we end the month still well up, but not where we were hoping to end. Three plays today stand out with one best bet at Sandown.
Melbourne Best Bet
Sandown Race 1 Il Cavallo
Very talented horse whose last start win at Flemington shouted class. Has been trialing very well and comes here today only having to beat really two other horses in the race. The price looks heavily over what I expected to see and as long as they decide to run tomorrow (they could run Saturday instead), then my money will be on!
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Sandown Race 1
I’m not a massive fan of taking the shorties first up, but it’s hard to ignore Il Cavallo. Has been trialing like a gun and the $1.80+ on offer in this race looks value over the 1000m. It was hard not to be impressed with the 3YO win by 4.3L to finish last prep on a dead track at Flemington. Just A Bullet looks the main danger today off 52kg and i’m happy to take these odds on offer for Il Cavallo.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Il Cavallo to win.
Sandown Race 5
Looks to be a bit of value in this race. There looks to be a lot of speed on paper and you can bet this relates to a fastly run race.
Danestroem was very poor first up and up in the weights i’m very happy to take her on here today.
Flying Hostess is a back-marker who runs very well first up. She loves a dead track and while her best runs have been over slightly further, she has measured up every time at this distance range and level. This is a very winable race and 56kg looks very suitable.
Beach Front is a horse with massive ability. I think her best runs have been seen on a dead track in the past. 52kg so no weight on her back and from barrier 3, she will get put in a very good position during the run. The price looks simply value and she has the ability from what i’ve seen this prep to win here.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: 1 unit Flying Hostesss. 1 unit Beach Front.
Sandown Race 8
St Mark is a horse who has been racing around in similar grade this prep. The last win was in slightly better class. Yes, his runs this prep have all been on slow or heavy tracks, but he hasn’t been below 59.5kg and most of these runs, all very strong, were at 61kg. Kenjorwood and Tristram’s Sun are very good form lines to be coming out of and off 53.5kg today, from barrier 4, he will be positioned to have every chance in the run and looks value in this grade.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: St Mark E/W
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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