Welcome to The Profits form guide for Sandown on 27 September 2014, AFL Grand Final Day. Mooney (MONEY) Valley last night went like a dream. While Lankan Rupee and Commanding Jewel went down, The Cleaner got a huge win and is Cox Plate bound AND CAN WIN IT. Solsay our Best Bet was given an absolute gem of a ride by Jackie Beriman (best apprentice going around on that track) to win with ease while Eloping who was a big drifter also got us the cash at 80% confidence. Moonovermanhattan was very unlucky to run only second as our best value of the day, but the place paid nice enough as well. Another Prelate capped off the night in style and the Quaddie as well. Confidence levels are much lower today at Sandown in what is a much harder and lower quality card than we are used to. Just remember, we have a full card of races tomorrow also, so don’t bet too much today. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Melbourne Best Bet
Sandown Race 7 Refer
Competing in 3F-GP1 last prep at Randwick and then ran a very good 3rd to Arabian Gold at Caulfield in 3F-LR class, returned with a very solid 4.5 length win first up over 1300m and looks to be flying. Is wanting much further than the 1300m but still showed a very solid rating performance and in this class today is not only a big chance but a big price and goes up our best of the day.
Sydney Best Bet
Rosehill Race 2 Travolta
I find it impossible to not have money on this bloke today. Maps as the only speed in the race and track conditions will suit today. Just ignore last start or rate the run highly considering he pulled up lame post race. He will have every chance today to control the tempo out the front and get home before the rest of them. Rosehill so expecting a red-hot rail as well. Love the price!
Melbourne Next Bet
Sandown Race 8 Charmed Harmony
I’m not sure the charmer will get a run today, but if he does, he is a best bet. He will only run on a dead or worse track and currently we sit at Dead 4. Overnight cold and dew should help the cause, but i’m just not sure if we can keep it a Dead track all meeting. If we do, Charmed Harmony rates to win. I have it in a race of 3 and Hazard is a good length or two off the ratings of Beauty’s Beast and Charmed Harmony. If Charmed Harmony is scratched, I’m actually very happy to simply swap out CH and put in Beauty’s Beast as the best with a saver bet on Hazard.
Sandown Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 4, 8, 12, 13, 14
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 9
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 8, 10
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 7, 10, 14
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Sandown Race 1
Source Code: Strange way to open a Saturday race meet with a Bm-70. Source Code showed nothing last start and previous run was average. Hard to see at the weights.
Prince Rahy: Slowly going through the grades but this is a step up again. Weighted ok but on times i’m not sure.
Sorisam: Maps well enough but times are too poor to be winning this even at the weights this prep for mine.
It’s A Shame Billy: Shown best runs on slow or heavy and this is a step up in class that he won’t make on dry.
Bawcatme: Hasn’t won this prep but last two starts have put the writing on the wall. Back in class again today and weighted nicely. Rates to win. Barrier only issue.
Quick Siesta: Best shown last prep on slow or heavy surfaces. Hard to measure this one up here.
Harquila: Two runs two wins in city. Step up again here today but obviously give a very good chance in this grade.
Mr Walker: Good maiden win first up and then just got the win second up. Another big step up here.
Kakanui: Times were ok last start off the 60kg on the slow track. Back to dry and looks suited. Short enough in markets though.
Bella Mollie: Goes well at track. Weighted nicely today with the claim on last two runs but this is a massive step back in distance which is a concern.
Sebring Lane: Hype horse at 2. Went around as favourite all 4 starts and won just 1 at $1.60. Very green last run. Be surprised if they have worked it all out yet. Barrier hurts and will do alot of work.
Kochamma: 51kg. First up run was solid enough but has to improve again today to place.
Comments: Two key runners for me in Bawcatme and Harquila. Very happy to have a small play on both.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Bawcatme win bet. Similar stake win bet Harquila.
Sandown Race 2
Stringy: Finished last prep nicely with two wins in a row at similar distances and class. Top weight a little harsh first up… won 1 of 5 first up (not placed last 3 preps first up).
De Little Engine: Love this guy! He had a great last prep improving after every run. No disgrace 2nd or 5th in either run to finish it either. Should actually be suited by distance here today as well. Looks a chance but probably does need the run.
Eye The World: Too far back last start and probably has to be forgiven. Hard to know what to make of the form transferring over to this surface as well. Should run well if repeats current form. Maps well.
Magic Consol: Won first two to start the prep and then found out a bit up in grade. Last start was a good run 4th in similar grade and weighted fairly today.
Cadel Triomphe: First up run was average. Back in class here but still has to find much more to measure up. Wants further.
King’s Dance: Start to finish strong win at Seymour second up. Flying right now and expect him to go out the front again today. Repeat of that run wins this.
You Rock: Disappointing last start at Mornington but probably too far back. Two back run solid enough. Has to find lengths.
Glow Torch: Better effort last start in realistic grade and down 3kg here today. Brings him into this at the weights.
Vetwrap: Ignore last start when failed due to track being too firm. Two back run was very solid when blocked for runs as well. Going much better than form suggests. Weighted to win. Probably be the market mover.
Present Arms: Never won first up and takes a few runs to get into it. Better over further.
Kincaple Chief: Should improve today back on firmer ground but needs the run it seems.
Pont Royale: Very average time maiden winner last start. Not for me.
Arkansas: Maiden win was only fair at best and poor last start at Bendigo. Struggle to see the measuring up here.
Benall: Green first up but even I couldn’t see a win here.
Comments: King’s Dance the standout while Vetwrap looks the value.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: King’s Dance to win. Smaller bet Vetwrap
Sandown Race 3
Orvieto: Good win first up and in similar grade of race today. Claimer goes on as expected and down to 57.5kg looks suited second up. Hard to ignore.
Khutulun: Showed best form over further than this but has won previously at similar distances. Likes this track having won here before and shown best runs on any track condition. Weight looks an issue. Maps well.
Capalbio: Surprise winner first up and then didn’t place after that but did still run quite well. Hard to ignore totally first up in this class.
Miss Softhands: First prep showed a lot of promise but then last prep didn’t produce the goods. If returns at best beats these.
Spirit of Soul: First up run had every chance out the front and just not good enough. Very happy to avoid this horse here on that run.
Uraine: Just have to forgive first up run and rate on previous prep runs. Better suited on a Good ground as well.
Elle Excite: Good enough 2nd to Quayside last start at course and similar distance which looks good form going forward. Does have to improve.
Forgeress: Continues to run well and either win or go close. 56kg looks very suitable here and only issue is Good surface.
Navajo Run: Measured up in 3YO and 3YO-Group company last prep over much further. Just here for the run most likely. Needs further.
Paddy’s Gem: Ignore the fact she went around last prep and rate on two and three back runs which are very solid. Back to good track condition today and always runs well here. Barrier 3 is ideal. Big chance and nice price.
Cocklebiddy: Showed nothing last start or previous start but three runs previous in much easier company were good. Hard to have.
Stylish Miss: Strong enough run last start at Seymour and weighted ok today from barrier but has to finish a good 2 to 3 lengths on my ratings.
Avanti: Big run first up 2nd to Afleet Espirit and then last start a little disappointing but still ran well. Way back in class here and looks suited. Only issue is barrier.
Must be Mink: Need to find lengths today to over-come a few runners here who have beaten her. Looks decent enough.
Emira: Hard to see this effort first up based on last prep but anything can happen.
Bian Divine: Not going well enough on last three runs to be getting the win today.
Carashan Girl: Hard to see Maiden to this.
Comments: Paddy’s Gem rates and maps to win this while Avanti has to be given massive respect back in this class on the first up run.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Paddy’s Gem to win. Smaller bet Avanti.
Sandown Race 4
Appoint: Continues to run cracking races this prep. Last win was at course and similar distance on a slow track. Never won on Good a massive concern but last two runs were close 4th to Digitalism and then 0.2L defeat by Devonshire Duke. Back in class again today here and rates well off 58kg.
Marwood: Continues to run well without winning. Back in class again today and flew home behind Late Charge last start at Caulfield. Will appreciate the extra distance and weighted to win this today. Big chance and loves the track Good.
Arctic Song: Big improver in easier race last start at Cranbourne. Can go on with it today but barrier hurts chances alot.
Bel Seal: Strong win on Heavy last start to finish prep. Goes well first up and weighted nicely enough. Has to have improved to win.
General Groove: Showed so much potential in the younger years but hasn’t shown much more than potential. First up run over an unsuitable 1100m had a lot of merit. Can improve and win from the back.
Solomon’s Song: Close 2nd two back at Caulfield and then up in class last start showed nothing. Hard to trust.
Red Spyder: Measured up last prep in 3YO-LR company when went close on slow. Seems to be wanting it wet. First up form is good.
Topkapi: Decent horse. 2 from 2 first up and rates well here if comes back at best.
Alarmist: Massive step up coming over from Tassy. Not for mine on form.
Lord Sherwood: Hard to see the improvement to beat Arctic Song here on last start alone.
Vee Force: Three runs all had merit this prep and continues to improve. Weighted slightly poorly on my ratings here today. Barrier helps to get slightly further forward in running.
Docking: Just ignore that he went around last start. Good win two back beating Arctic Song but finds himself poorly weighted. Need luck.
Bon Rocket: Very disappointing run in a Group 3 last start. Not sure why they went there. Back in class here and has run okay races without winning. No cheque here for mine.
Leadfoot: Good run 3rd to Running Bull first up and Oliver stays on. Best run and win over 1600m last prep was good. Improvement to come. Barrier sucks.
Famechon: Maiden winner finally. Measured up over the 1700m+ two preps back. Needs further.
Just Wonderful: Poor maiden winner but good yard. Had time to train on.
Comments: Marwood was huge last two runs and I can’t drop off now. Rates to win and maps well. General Groove was big first up and up to 1300m will help. Weighted nicely also.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Marwood to win. Smaller bet General Groove.
Sandown Race 5
Great Lane: Missed start but didn’t run into ti at all last start at Flemington. Back to Sandown and acceptable grade off 60kg… have to find a lot from the back to go close today but has the ability.
Dubosc: Fairly easy win last start a the Bool but what did he actually beat? Weighted nicely here today back in BM-78 grade. Best seen on dead ground and back in the correct distance races today. can run well.
Get Out of Town: Finished last prep with a good win in harder grade. Never placed from 8 attempts first up a issue and needs the run.
Luck’s A Fortune: Showed nothing either run this prep. No thanks. Needs 3000+ metres.
Gridhian: Interesting runner. Livery, Quick Snitz form seems solid enough to rate in this race today. Maps well even from barrier today and weighted well enough. Can win.
Bunchloch: Beaten easy last start behind Dubosc. Not here on weights.
Caillebotte: Frenchy. Best suited to 2000m+. Up to 1800m today but will that do the trick? Not shown anything yet.
Fledged: First up import. Won maiden over 2400m and needed further after that. Looks good enough to still run well here. Price very short though….
He’s A Steal: Can’t fault his form this prep. Improved all three runs this prep. Up in class here but down to 52kg. Can run well.
Don Doremo: Stupid nomination last start. Back to more winnable grade but rather see him on rain affected ground.
Matron: Have to ignore sharply back on the good ground today to take this one out!
Comments: Tough race. I can’t be betting here unless it’s on He’s A Steal E/W at the huge odds off the 52kg.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 4, 8, 12, 13, 14
Strategy: He’s A Steal on the E/W
Sandown Race 6
Masked Marvel: Fell out of it very quickly second up over the 2000m. Very disappointing run if you ask me and even at the weights today I prefer a few others here based on that run. Should have found much more.
Caravan Rolls On: Just there for the run first up at MV and now up to 2400m is the testing material. Goes very well at these distances and goes well second up also. Will be pushing into this at the right time. Fitness will be telling..
Mulaqen: Bit of a surprise winner last start at Moonee Valley… but had been running ok. Waller believes will be hard to beat again today and on form it’s hard to suggest why he wouldn’t be. Key is a Good surface. Not much other early speed in the race so should get the right spot.
Unchain My Heart: Very disappointing last start when 3L 4th. Maps to be far back again today and I can’t see where the improvement from that last start run comes from here today.
Bachelor Royal: Ran a blinder last start further back in running. Will appreciate extra distance today and should actually measure up to be fighting at least for a place.
De Fine Lago: Continues to slowly improve but just not going well enough this prep. Spell.
Kindergarden Kid: Nothing shown all four starts. Dudd. Throw him back.
Like A Carousel: Ran very well first up missing the start. Did run a brave 4th in Group 2 over 3200m last prep and should be measuring up here today over the distance with the run under his belt. Never won first or second up an issue but placed 2 from 3 2nd up.
Martian: Making way through the grades but still no win. Import ex-GB horse. Up in distance should suit on form but unsure for mine.
Miss Matty: Running well without winning the last two starts now defeated both times by Now and Zen. Worse off at weights today.
Now and Zen: Back in the winners stall last two runs. Loves this distance but this is a grade above what he is nused to.
Surpass: Measured up last prep in Open class so expect with this many runs in he could potentially also off the weights.
Comments: I have to go with the proven class here in Caravan Rolls on and Like a Carousel.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 9
Strategy: Caravan Rolls On to win. Smaller win bet on Like a Carousel.
Sandown Race 7
To Be Honest: Running well without winning this prep. Claim gets her down to 58kg which helps here and maps well from barrier. Doesn’t have to improve much to be in the finish here.
Vicario: Weighted much better today. Have to find a few more lengths to still measure up though on previous 3 runs.
Rayhan: Just simply not going well enough this prep to consider her a winning chance. I think she could place but at the weights others preferred.
Centauraine: Ran home well enough behind Quayside last start and the Donald win was ok without being impressive. Needs to find more.
Arena Rock: Running well this prep without winning. Up in class here and needs to improve again to be matching these. Best seen on dead.
Moon and the Stars: QLD runner who has run well both runs first and second up. Times are ok and weighted ok. Has to find more here though.
Rowdy Belle: Turned the corner this prep it seems. Good win two back at Seymour and then last start a little unlucky in Adelaide. Has to improve to win but has the ability.
Refer: The one to follow in the race. Competing in 3F-GP1 last prep at Randwick and then ran a very good 3rd to Arabian Gold at Caulfield in 3F-LR class. Very solid win first up as well over 1300m and looks to be flying. Big chance.
Hawaiian Princess: Unlucky run first up. Have to improve onwards again today to measure up in this.
No Excuses Bec: Certainly had no excuses last start. Down in weight but harder class of race. Best run this prep was on slow.
She’s Pretentious: Peaks on Good tracks and gets that today. Best runs over similar distances also. Need to improve big time though to win this.
Allelu: Big win two back at Wodonga in R-58 class so kinda expected but didn’t measure up to BM-64. Weighted ok.
Fleurissime: Finished last prep with a very averagely rated maiden win. Not for me on form.
Abaleen: Two back run was solid enough on the slow but last start on dry was average. Not this class of race.
Comments: Refer looks the one and only horse I want to be on in this. Has the ability and has to be respected. Big price on offer IMO compared to rated price.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 8, 10
Strategy: Refer to win.
Sandown Race 8
Club Command: Alarming drift last start for NO reason.. someone knew. Down in class but high weight today as a result. Maps ok with no speed on his inside. Best runs seen on wetter.
Bel Thor: Never won first up and weight looks harsh. Needs the run.
Beauty’s Beast: Hard to suggest he isn’t a serious horse. Finished last prep with a solid 2L win in 3YO-LR in the Autumn at Randwick on slow. Won on Good and Dead in similar grade over in NZ also. Barrier 17 will mean he has to do a lot of work early and will Charmed Harmony really give up the lead? Doubt it. Big chance either way.
Hazard: Looks under-rated here in the market prices. Ran Gregers to 3.3L last start and is way back in class and only up 1kg. Up in distance will suit today and maps well from barrier to just be off the pace. The real deal this horse and has to be respected.
Morant: Going well but not well enough to match it with these just at the moment.
You’re So Good: Showed only fair form last two runs. Has to find much more in todays effort.
Charmed Harmony: Huge win last start at course and similar distance. Previous runs all had a lot of merit also. Simply put won’t be running if it’s a good track and therefore will be scratched. If dead, will run and win off the 55kg.
Felidea: Back to 1300m a strange move but did run well two back at course and similar distance. Better runs on slower paces and dryer tracks.
London Stripe: Finished last prep with a 3rd in a Group 3. Continued to improve as went into prep and first up looks vulnerable.
Tristram’s Sun: Good run once again last start but couldn’t beat home Charmed Harmony. Weighted poorly today can’t see it.
Laohu: Just not the same horse this prep. Running well but not winning.
Hosting: Interesting runner. Weighted to run well and goes well first up. Nothing went right last prep. Probably going to avoid from barrier first up.
Magnapal: Best was seen over further last prep. Weighted ok but has to find much more. Just here for the run.
Comments: I’m very keen on two runners here at the prices. Charmed Harmony and Beauty’s Beast are the two standouts. Charmed won’t run on a Good track and Beauty won’t beat Charmed on a Dead track so whatever occurs, I’m Best Betting one of them. Hazard looks really the only main danger for mine and will be a play if Charmed Harmony is scratched.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 7, 10, 14
Strategy: Charmed Harmony to win. Saver Beauty’s Beast. IF Charmed Harmony scratched. Beauty’s Beast moves to 80% confidence Best Bet also with a smaller bet on Hazard.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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