Welcome to The Profits form guide for Sandown on 27 August 2014. No mucking around today, one race, two bets and our first Best Bet mid-week for a fair while. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Melbourne Best Bet
Sandown Race 3 Charmed Harmony
Charmed Harmony is back to the scene of the crime where he destroyed his rivals by 8 lengths three runs back. Similar class to last start defeat at Caulfield by 0.1L, he finds himself much better weighted against the winner. The only danger in the race is a very smart runner in Tristram’s Sun and we are taking the safe approach of savering. He looked a million $$$ as per the photo above when at Caulfield for his last run and it is worth mentioning that he sweated up on his way to the track for that run and wasn’t ridden to instructions as the rider couldn’t get him balanced.
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Sandown Race 3
Under The Eiffel: Shown nothing all prep and off 60kg here hard to see a turn around in form. Not for mine.
Morant: Continues to plod along well and up to 58kg today which isn’t where he has been winning his races at. Ran very well over this distance on a long straight three runs back. Need to have improved on last two ratings though. Also never won on dead a massive issue.
LuckyI’MBareFoot: Average run last start and previous two as well. Looking for it wetter than this today to find best.
Infinite Energy: Won two in a row. Up 2kg today and giving Charmed Harmony 1.5kg. Similar barrier today and maps to get back once again. Have to find another gear today to make up that ground again if Charmed Harmony is ridden correctly from the top of the straight.
Mister Impatience: Very interesting runner who ran some strong races over in UK. Hasn’t been seen since 2013 and best sinces much further than this. Best runs on slow or worse.
Snow Cover: Hasn’t wonm since the start of 2013 and hasn’t placed since then. Hard to see the reversal of form. Only ever won on Good tracks.
Tristram’s Sun: Huge win at course and distance and even lost a plate! Down to 53kg today and even though he has a poor barrier again, that shouldn’t stop him getting a good run. Should be even better with the sting out and looks the main danger.
Charmed Harmony: Last start was painful for all of us with Charmed Harmony just not getting there at the line. Katie Mallyon said he was unbalanced on the turn and she couldn’t let him go when wanted. Re-watching the ride, she didn’t let him go until the 300m and this is a horse you let go at the 500m. Back to the scene of the crime where he won by 8L hard-held the final 200m. Maps to be the only leader in the race off 53kg, he is a super price at $3 today and i’m as bullish, or even more so than last start. Maximum bet.
Rowland: Strange placement. Not wet enough for him and not far enough. Just here for a run between targets I’d suggest. Could be used to push the pace with team tactics.
Schockemohle: NZ runner first up in Aus. Measured up in Open class over further distances than this and best runs were seen on wetter tracks. Hard to see in this.
Let’s Be a Star: Not a star just yet. First up run was average. Not for me here.
Glow Torch: Not on form this prep! Couldn’t even suggest a place.
Comments: Two horse race on my ratings with Charmed Harmony the stand out. Tristram’s Sun could win today so we have to saver and the mapping for the horse is tricky with no other horses wanting to go forward on mapping, they may opt to do that today.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Charmed Harmony to win. Saver bet on Tristam’s Sun.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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