Welcome to The Profits form guide for Sandown and Newcastle on 19 March 2014. Well, last Saturday didn’t work out as planned. Opinion certainly let us down, and so did the trackwalkers at Randwick declaring a Dead 5 downgraded to Dead 4 when there was clearly Good group 5-6 metres out. Something has to change with the ratings we give out and more constant updates of different sections throughout the meetings. Bull Point was well backed late from $9 into $6 but failed after hitting his shoulder in the barriers, being passed fit to jump, but obviously being affected by that issue in the barriers. At least some of the value runners got us out with a $17 place with our top value. The tips down in Melbourne (our fortress) were also solid with the best in Laohu winning! Onwards and upwards (I even took a belting on the flight back with those massive storms… horrible). As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! On to the card today, some solid value around and some very wide bets being put up. Two shorties at good prices I like and the Newcastle top pick looks big value. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Sandown Race 4 Trustam
Next Best
Sandown Race 7 Taiyoo
Best Value
Newcastle Race 7 Pinwheel
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Newcastle Race 7
Pinwheel: Maps to sit midfield today from a positive barrier. Last three runs have all been stand outs with a 2.5L 3rd to Appearance, 1L to Moment of Change and 2L to Terravista/ElRoca all bloody good form lines. If he runs a similar race today to those three runs, he goes close and should definately be placing.. if he improves only slightly, he is the top chance in the race. Looks tremedous overs.
Slow Pace: The unknown of the race. Hasn’t been seen for 7 months since a 0.4L 3rd to Tres Blue over in WFA-G2 over in France… but his best form has been over the 2400m trip. Does have a win over 1600m but expect this will be too sharp today, especially if we have a good track. Weighted well though.
Rain Drum: A good horse who returned last year from an injury in style. First up this prep was a very solid run 2L 6th to Apperance. Down 3kg today while Pinwheel is up 0.5kg. Even though these were difference races, weights do play a part.
Strawberry Boy: First up run was pretty poor compared to what we have seen from him in the past. Sure, he probably went a little hard out the front, but we have seen him do that over and over and still stay on until the final 50m where he falls out of it. He was gone a long way out last start. He is better suited to a shorter straight than what Flemington gave us and that showed. Newcastle does have a longer straight than he wants IMO and I think we have to take him on today.
Centennial Park: 2 back run behind Terravista was ok, last start ran home well but back to this class today he is outclassed and a poor barrier.
Maluckyday: Not the same since 2010. Bes tover much further even though showed something first up last prep. The only massive positive today is that he is at the lowest weight he has had for a LONG time at 54.5kg.
Reparations: Done nothing wrong this prep and keeps running well, 2kg worse off today against Centennial park is the issue. Maps to be out the back.
High Esteem: First up run was horrible. Last prep couldn’t get within 4L of Rain Drum but 5kg better off today. First up run showed me all I needed to see really.
Cameo: Went around at a huge price first up last start and wasn’t given much of a run either. Neede the first up run (never placed first up ever) but goes very well 2nd up. Will be much further forward today and at odds is a big chance today for mine.
Wistful: Just ignore last start when 3-4 wide the whole race and didn’t settle at all in the run. I think we know which one of Snowden’s runners he thinks is the best chance today with the rider, and I agree, but this mare showed us some serious form last prep and if returns today at her best, can compete with these.
Almighty Charge: Never run a bad race this prep. Will be out the front from a wide barrier pushing the tempo with Strawberry Boy. Won’t get the rail which hampers his chances for mine but weighted nicely. Sectionals are solid but this is a big step up in class.
Kaypers: Had every chance the last two runs but just wasn’t good enough. Best shown over slow. Not for me today.
Mecir: Two wins this prep in much easier company. Last two runs in Open class have been solid when blocked at times for runs… but probably wouldn’t have won either way. Barrier hurts today for mine. Certainly a chance, but others appeal more.
Double Halo: Hard to have him off his two runs this prep. Doesn’t look good enough for this!
Comments: What a contest we have today. We have the old battlers who stand out while there are also some clear progressive types trying to stake their claim in a higher level race today. Who stands out for me in this race? Pinwheel is the clear top pick. He has impressed each run this prep and I reckon he meets the least competitive race all prep. He has only been up a little more than a month and in reality would have been set to peak closer to The Championships than first up. Rain Drum is the race favourite and at the weights comes into this well. There should be an advantage to being on-pace with the rail in the true position today, but is he really this ‘grade’? Almighty Charge is the 2nd favourite and continues to run well. He and Mecir are the two progressive types staking their claims today. He will struggle to get the lead from Strawberry Boy and they may just run this one TOO hard as a result. There are three at odds I think are tremedous chances. The first is Wistful. Measured up in Mares grade last prep winning VERY well at Flemington before 3-wide the whole trip running a close 1L 3rd to Floria in M-GP3 grade. The sectionals run that day suggest she is this grade today at these weights and we should ignore first up. Gets a good barrier today and will have every chance. Cameo last prep ran 1L 2nd to Catkins last prep which is certainly solid enough form to suggest she has the potential to measure up here. Last win was over Royal Descent in a fast 1:35.1 over 1600m and she has a good record at this track. Don’t choke on your coffee when I suggest the 3rd value runner… Maluckyday! Yup. Been against him since he has run from 2011 onwards, but at the weights he is absolutely in with a chance. His run first up last prep was very very very solid flashing home to within 1.5L at Randwick. The 405m straight today will give him every chance. The pace will be on out the front as well and I have a feeling Ford, with just 54.5kg, may give Maluckyday a Linton style run for luck along the rails and could pinch this!
Confidence 80%
Strategy: 3 units Pinwheel to win. 0.75 units Wistful. 0.75 Units Maluckyday. 0.5 Units Cameo.
Sandown Race 4
This one looks to be between six runners unless something else improves 2-3 lengths today.
Near the bottom of the weights, The Bronx put down a strong enough time last prep and sectionals off 60kg to suggest he can run well today down 4kg.
Even lower at the weights, The Weir runner is claiming 3kg today in Trustam to be off 52.5kg from barrier 3 and be expected to be out the front. The time run on the dead track was eye-catching and she looks to have turned a corner. Maps to win today.
Corstons Beau has the form off this weight today to go close, but I’m not sure I would want to be out the front today.
Prince Stratum let us down big time end of last prep…. but he is certainly much better than this class today on his runs last prep and times… probably saw his best on a slow track though and to find best does he want a little more sting out?
Tricky Glen ran well last start behind Danger CLose and was blocked for runs. Much better at the weights today also
Danger Close won last start, up 2kg today but good barrier and track should suit.
Comments: The sectionals and weight of Trustam make me believe she is the best of the day and going to progress to listed company this prep and the $5.50 available looks sensational. Tricky Glen is wanting a dead track. I can’t not saver Prince Stratum today with the potential he has.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Trustam to win. Saver Prince Stratum.
Sandown Race 5
Excuse my language, but the only appropriate word for this race is an absolute clusterfuck.
I note 7 horses all with legitamate claims to be in with a winning chance today. Let’s go through them.
Final Jest just has to be ignored for the two back run and rated on the 4 previous runs. Off 55.5kg from barrier 5, he is certainly one of the horses to beat. Maps well and is always game ot the line. Expecting a stronger tempo than his last few runs is the only issue though, testing material.
Big Buddie‘s Two back run has to be ignored. Rate on last start and three back. Last start ran wide the whole race and was still game to the line. Lowest class race today, similar to three back run… I think he is suited here today ridden on the rail, he can’t go wide. Looks to be wanting 1400m to me as well.
Longeron has gone up as favourite and if you ignore last start, the three previous runs this prep are reasons why he is favourite. He won’t lead today and will take a nice sit from barrier 3. Back to 1400m suited also. Loves a long straight as shown by runs at FLemington previously as well. Never won on Good is the only issue.
Correggio surprised finishing off last prep to almost steal one in similar company at Flemington. Down 1kg today resuming and has never missed a place from 3 runs first up. Will be coming hard from the back.
Edgewood is an absolute cat, but 1L off Laohu and 0.5L off Wales last start from barrier 4, expect they will sit SLIGHTLY further forward today and he is finding his best on Good tracks.
Union Gap was just beat by Laohu two back, last start just beaten by Minnie Downs and three back close behind SIno Eagle. Form matches up well here and barrier suits.
Kerthos looks to be the pace in the race and will be very hard to run down if the rail is on, but with where it is out so far, I doubt it. The last two runs have been impressive… I reckon they may even try and take a sit today.. which he is good from. Weighted well today.. good in-play bet if they do not lead.
Comments: So how do you bet here? You have to take the value. Longeron looks clearly unders in the market, but I also do find it hard to oppose him. Kerthos looks an in-play back if takes a sit, while in-play lay if leads, especially if the track isn’t suiting leaders in previous races. I’m happy to bet with the value in this race. Edgewood, Big Buddie and Final Jest are the overs.
Confidence: 70%
Strategy: Small bets on Edgewood, Big Buddie and Final Jest so that you win equal stake no matter which one wins.
Sandown Race 7
Auld Burns: Can he turn it around today? The weights have him 2kg better off against Taiyoo… but Taiyoo beat him convincingly last start so I don’t think so. Doesn’t look to be a leaders day either.
Taiyoo has all the form lines you want to follow. An impressive 2nd to Sweet As Bro from way too far back three runs back at MV.. then 3rd to Cadillac Mountain who went super in the last 2 weeks in much harder company… and then with those form lines, it’s no surprise he won so well last start. He is absolutely flying and Weir yard no surprise. Tricky barrier today is the only concern from 11, but there isn’t that much speed inside of him so expect him to jump well and take a position just off the pace. The one to beat, clearly.
Godspiel has impressed me her last two starts. Ran home super here tow back when SInhala got away with murder out front. Meets Sinhala 1kg better off today also. Will be far back, but the track should suit today.
Sinhala surprised us last start by showing such a strong run over the 1600m. Weighted well again today and will be out the front again… and there doesn’t seem to be many who can test her for the speed, so she may just get away with it out the front? Don’t dismiss
Alright Already has won 3 from 3 this prep, back in distance today is a concern but off the weight and off the previous three runs, you have to respect him.
Azzaden won well first up over 1700m. Well bred horse and low weight.. but this is a big step up from a maiden!
Comments: This race all comes down to what prices you are getting for runners and the tempo of the race. Taiyoo looks over the odds at close to $4 this evening. I’m not expecting an overly strong clip out the front which sets it up for him compared to Godspiel who will be a long way back from that barrier. Sinhala is probably slightly over the odds at the $10s and should start about $6s if the rail is working out ok. Alright Already at $13s is certainly over the odds on the last few runs and can lead or take a sit. I have to take on the maiden winner Azzaden at the $6.5. The key winning long-term play here for mine is backing Taiyoo.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Back Taiyoo to win.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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