Welcome to The Profits form guide for Sandown on 15 November 2014. The horror run has continued and we have been copping some very bad variance. It’s bound to change so we are keeping at it with the same formulas and hopefully today is the day. Keep a special eye on how the track is playing early and also that rain radar. Tips subject to change throughout the day with unpredictable rain fall. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Sandown Race 2 Pornichet
Next Best
Sandown Race 3 Dual Star
Best E/W
Sandown Race 5 Green Moon
Best Value
Sandown Race 8 Sweet As Bro
Sandown MAIN Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 8
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 7
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 5, 9, 11
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 6, 10, 12
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Sandown Race 1
Lots of no form runners here. Saw enough of Thurlow first up down the Flemington straight to know this is a classy filly. Looks the one to beat from what we have seen.
Comments: Thurlow to win if betting.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Thurlow to win.
Sandown Race 2
Speediness: Shown very very little the last two runs.. Back to 1500m today.. not sure I can trust on last two runs.
Pornichet: Big run last start, should have won. Hucklebuck franked the form winning Emirates as well. Suited by long straight and maps much better today.
Spacecraft: Tough horse who stays for days. Hard tough race this one and can’t see overturning the others in this.
Another Prelate: Old bloke continues to run well. Can run a strong race but struggle to suggest anything better than a place.
Vibrant Rouge: Had her chances last start at Flemington when ran 3rd. Step up in class again here.
Red Bomber: Very strong win last start at Mornington… very strong. Continues to improve.. shown best on wet surfaces.
Lady Lakshmi: Good win two back. Last start no match up in class but wasn’t in the ideal spot either. Will run much better today but has to find much more than two back.
General Groove: Strong win last start at Flemington over the carnival. Up in class here but rates well off that run.
Refer: Ran well in much easier class at Flemington. Can’t see winning on previous three runs here though.
Comments: Pornichet stands out from the pack here.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Pornichet to win.
Sandown Race 3
Wine Tales: Horrible ride last start. New jockey goes on. Very strong form lines coming into last start run as well. Have to respect this runner today and barrier means shouldn’t get blocked for runs.
Muscovado: Very average run last start. Back in distance today looks better suited but still in a class that may just be above her?
More Radiant: Continues to run well without winning. Well beaten last start by Tawteen. Can’t see them pushing forward today and b e ridden with cover. has to improve.
Dual Star: Very strong run last start at Flemington down the straight. Looked to be doing her best work late and comes into this race very well based on that run. Form lines to follow.
Fitocracy: 1.8L 2nd to Lord Aspen two back good form but last start at Flemington didn’t show much at all. Hard to rate.
Wawail: Undefeated horse who looks to have a lot of upside. Beat home Devon Princess last start just at Moonee Valley. Form lines are strong but has to find much more here.
Wroclaw: Good run last start at Flemington. Found her way to the line well but was still a few lengths off them. Place chance.
Feels Like Home: Only fair to the line last start at Flemington. Others preferred on form.
The French House: Kilmore maiden winner. Can’t see winning here on form.. but is Weir stable.
Blackjack Bella: Very average run last start. Had every chance it seemed. No thanks.
She’s All That: Not the worst maiden run last start… but can’t see winning off that.
Comments: Finding it hard to bet around Dual Star at the price.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Dual Star to win.
Sandown Race 4
Shoreham: Very disappointing last few runs. Hard to have today based on everything we have seen. Stupid tactics in the Lexus to try lead.
Like A Carousel: Very disappointing run in the Lexus and was worse than he had shown. Suited by further distance.
Massiyn: Continues to improve each run this prep and up in distance has to suit based on how strong he was last start. Query if it was a gut buster though as Order of the Sun was horrible the next start.
Unchain my Heart: Proven in this grade, but was shown up to not be a TRUE stayer off a strong tempo in the Melb Cup. Can’t have on runs this prep.
Zanbagh: Had a few issues last start at Flemington but was still an okay wrong. Yard think she is a chance today.
Ancient King: Every chance last start at Bendigo. Can’t see going close on form this prep unless it’s a slow track.
Renew: Very strong run over 2800m last start at Flemington with a strong push to line late. Bred to get this distance and would appreciate a little rain to get it dead.
Distillation: Every chance last start. Ran well but well beaten by Renew.
Waltzing to Win: Decent run behind Renew and Distillation last start. Not good enough to win here though.
Aggregator: Disappointing run on potential. Not showing best this prep.
Haylaman: Well beaten in Hamilton Cup. Not this grade on previous runs but distance could suit?
Weekend Winner: Not this weekend…
Comments: Tough race on paper. What form lines do you rate the highest? Renew was very good behind Grand Marshall and they gapped the rest. Massiyn continues to run well without winning. Shoreham was better than the run suggests last start and Like a Carousels run was worse than it looked. Zanbagh has the improvement to come and was actually a good run in the Queen Eliz really.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Renew to win. Smaller bet Zanbagh.
Sandown Race 5
Green Moon: Only beaten 2.65L in the Caulfield Cup.. was a decent run all things considered really. Won a handy race called the MELBOURNE CUP… Maps to have every chance also close to the speed and will lead if they can… rates to win.. but issue is never won with 59kg in past.
Sea Moon: Riding quieter today. Suited by distance and if peaking has to be a chance to win today.
Rialya: Shown nothing this prep. No thanks.
Prince of Penzance: Last two runs have been peaks. Continues to run well. Suited today but this looks as hard or even harder over the 3200m. Hasn’t gone over this distance all year a concern.
Au Revoir: Fell out of it fairly quickly last start at Flemington in the Melbourne Cup but did run 8th. Two back at MV was 1.75L off Prince of Penzance and Le Roi. Have to respect.
Spillway: Could be the one to watch of the race. Ran a very strong 4th in the Mackinnon behind some very good horses. Won’t be that far back today from barrier 1, expected to sit midfield at worst. Respect.
Rawnaq: Found nothing last start, very flat. Have to bring his best to measure up to these at these weights. No thanks.
Count of Limonade: Continues to improve. Good Moe cup win. Best seen on wet. If the rain comes have to consider. Query if best is over this distance.
Epingle: Safely held last start at MV Cup. Needs to find much more at weights here to place.
Comments: Very strong race and one i’m keen to bet into.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Medium sized bet Green Moon. Saver Spillway.
Sandown Race 6
Sonntag: Very strong win last start in Sale Cup. Aimed at a two run prep and should be peaking today. Form lines in that race haven’t exactly proved to be the BEST around.. but up to a suitable distance today… only question is if the handicapper has ahold of him. Maps very well from barrier.
Rhythm To Spare: Very disappointing in the Emirates.. but did pull up lame as the excuse. Two back run in the Toorak was an eye-catcher.. but so was Speediness and Desert Jeuney who haven’t worked out form wise. Hard to suggest the step up. Bet around.
Pheidon: Continues to run well without winning. Huge run at Flemington to stick on for 3rd in a photo considering it was almost impossible to lead and win at Flemington throughout the carnival. Rates very well.
Jacquinot Bay: Very very disappointing run last start at Flemington after a very good run at Caulfield previously. Hard to have on that.
Bel Thor: Strong win in Seymour cup but outclassed last start from the back. Closer today from barrier but hard to see the massive improvement here.
Escado: Ran home nicely with low weight in the Emirates. Has to improve again here though.
Extra Zero: Had every chance in Kyneton Cup but Tristram’s Sun was huge. Hard to see him turning around the form on Pheidon or T Sun today even at weights.
Tristam’s Sun: Not exactly weighted well today but loves this track having won 3 from 4. This really is the horses home track and only loss was to Charmed Harmony who is a star in the making. Looks suite dup to this distance today and is peaking again it seems. Have to respect.
Zabisco: Cup winner last prep but this prep could only manage 2.65L and 2.9L off a win. Has to find MUCH more to place here i’d say.
Correggio: Strong run in Benalla Cup but last start very poor. Off and on.. hot and cold. Hard to rate.
The Inventor: Struggle to rate this horse to place here.
By The Grace: Had every chance last start at Flemington. This is much harder but weighted ok.
Comments: No idea what the track will be like at this stage in the day. Pheidon is top pick on a Good track but never won on dead a concern. On the other side of it Sonntag is proven on either surface and so is Tristram’s Sun. These are the clear three top picks.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 8
Strategy: Sonntag top pick on Dead or Good. If Good track, will be at very least savering Pheidon.
Sandown Race 7
Zululand: Didn’t stay the 2040m from out the front. Had every chance really with the pace. Best ridden cold but ridden that way not find his best this prep. Hard to suggest without alot of rain.
Stratum Star: Unlucky 2nd in Carbine Club last start at Flemington. Found the front too early. Rates very well today and maps well also. One to beat.
Petrology: Strong win in much easier company last start at Flemington. Didn’t beat much though and well off Stratum Star two and three back. Hard to rate up in class.
Lord Aspen: Sat just off them and got to the front at the right time, kicked clear and just held on. A few unlucky runners behind him suggesting needs to improve again today.
Careless: Every chance last few runs but very disappointing in the Carbine Club. Questioning if the horse is suited to distance or more a sprinter.
Seenaan: Improved run up in class last start but well beaten. Hard to see the extra improvement today.
Ducal Castle: Unlucky and blocked for runs last start behind Lord Aspen. Hit line strongly and will sit needing luck again on rails. Have to respect that run.
Chill Party: Close 2nd to Petrology last start at Flemington. hard to see the improvement to go up in class again but has ability.
Rekindled Power: Bendigo winner by a long margin in maiden class. Decent form two back but lengths off these it seems. Still, respect.
Berisha: Maiden winner just last start. No thanks..
Motel Memories: Winner in maiden class last start, wasn’t very good really.
Ungrateful Ellen: Showed nothing last start. Hard to rate.
Comments: Three key hopes here in Stratum Star, Lord Aspen and Ducal Castle. All three runners are proven to handle good and dead tracks. Stratum Star and Ducal Castle position to be around 3-4 sets back while Lord Aspen is expected to lead, but could simply just be ridden with a sit as well. Weights are against Ducal Castle here today. Have to side with Stratum Star just due to $3.10 available on writing this (wouldn’t take below $2.90) and savering Lord Aspen at the $5.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 7
Strategy: Stratum Star to win. Saver Lord Aspen.
Sandown Race 8
Fast ‘N’ Rocking: Hit the line well last start at Flemington for 3rd. Coming off a win and two previously decent runs before that. Will be far back.
We’re Gonna Rock: Showed nothing at all last start at Flemington down the straight. Hard to have today based on first up run.
Flamberge: Found the line strongly without impressing at Flemington last start. Would love a bit of rain. Should get it by this stage in day. Respect.
Generalife: Ran home very well behind Hucklebuck last start and previous to that behind Lucky Hussler. Has the right form lines and in a class of race that is suitable. Find himself well back in race but will hit line strongly. Appreciate any rain that comes.
Charlie Boy: Continues to run well without winning. Strong 4th behind Deep Field last start. Two back behind Aomen and Monton was decent also. Have to improve here.
Nearest To Pin: Well beaten last start. Hard to have on that run but is a classy runner so don’t exactly dismiss on first up run.
Don’t Get Excited: Showed nothing last start. Hard to have today on what we have seen this prep.
Office Bearer: Very strong run 2nd at Flemington last start from dead last. Was suited that day to wind but is a good horse. Back to best?
Big Buddie: Ran a strong 6th at Kyneton last start. Arnold takes ride a concern for me and weighted poorly here.
Sweet As Bro: Just ignore first up run. Better suited today by corner track and 1300m.
Jazz Song: Showed nothing last start. Hard to rate on that last run. Flat?
Comments: Sweet As Bro looks a huge price today considering the ability we know the horse has. Fast ‘N’ Rocking has done nothing wrong all prep and is much better weighted today as well. Generallife also has done nothing wrong all prep while Office Bearer on last start run goes close.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 5, 9, 11
Strategy: Fast ‘N’ Rocking to win. Smaller bet Sweet As Bro.
Sandown Race 9
She’s Clean: Disappointing run last start at Flemington but never had any cover so wasn’t winning from there. Have to forgive that run. Maps better today.
Estonian Princess: Tough improved run last start at Flemington when came from well back. Previous run in G3 at Randwick was leading! Probably push forward from outside barrier today to be handy with so many runners. Have to consider.
Politeness: Had every chance last start but not good enough on dry ground. Surely the rain will have come by the time she is ready to roll. Will be a long way back only query but if wet enough she is good enough.
Koe: Not good enough last three starts in much easier. No thanks. Poorly weighted.
Secret Toy Bizness: Snuck along the rail and got the win last start at Flemington. Very decent win but this is much harder. Last two runs been solid so can’t dismiss.
Rose of Choice: Got the lead at the 250m last start but got there too soon. Two good runs this prep and well in this.
Ava’s Delight: Misses starts and will be way too far back today. No thanks. .
Minnie Downs: One of those types you expect can run a race when you have no cash on her. Maps ok from barrier. Not running well enough.
Spitfire Lady: Showed nothing last start when jumped poorly. Couldn’t have on that run or previous runs.
Nautical: Good horse, probably just ignore last start run when was further back than expected and didn’t finish off as well as expected. Respect.
Nadeem Lass: Poor run last start at Flemington when 7th. Had her chances. Hard to see beating all these home now today.
Belle De Coeur: Eye-catcher last start at Flemington. Very good horse on her day and one to watch.
Double Dee: Not good enough on previous form. Gone backwards.
Kiss Me Ketut: Decent horse and ran a nice 2nd last start. Previous runs were poor. Needs to improve but has the ability.
Lonhruge: Not on last two runs no thanks.
Judical Rock: Couldn’t win much easier than this in country grade. No thanks.
Shadow of the Mist: BM-70 winner in okay grade. Has to improve though.
Refer: Went back last start and ran home nicely. has ability but this grade? Struggle to see her beating all these.
Comments: Tough way to finish the day with many chances.
Confidence 70% on Good. 75% on Dead or worse.
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 6, 10, 12
Strategy: On a GOOD surface, Belle De Coeur to win. On a Dead or Slow or Heavy surface, Politeness to win and saver Belle De Coeur.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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