Welcome to The Profits form guide for Rosehill and Sandown on 22 March 2014. Welcome! The Best Bet last night in Platelet got home at nice odds while the Best Value Suavito just got nosed out of it. We finished the night with a BANG in the last hitting the winner at $7s after a confidence increase on twitter due to the play of the track and also landed the Quaddie. Tough cards today, no joke. A fair bit of value around but overall tough cards at both venues. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!
Sydney Best Bet
Rosehill Race 8 Fiorente
Fiorente just keeps getting put up as overs and we keep saying thank you very much. Twitter was advised to take the $2.8 available on Wednesday and it’s now just slightly shorter. There are a few value chances that can knock him off today… but does he win more than the odds suggest? You can your arse he does! PalmerBet is money back up to $100 if Fiorente runs 2nd or 3rd in this race as well! Betfair is $50 money back if runs 2nd. Check promos area below. Huge advantage that one.
Melbourne Best Bet
Sandown Race 4 Late Charge
Tough bloody card in Melbourne and it’s rare our best is only an 80% confidence… but we are still keen on him. He gets into a winable race and I have loved his two runs this prep even with over-working. If he settles, he wins, that simple. If he doesn’t, he still has a fighting chance!
Sydney Best Each-Way All Day
Rosehill Race 7 Bonaria
This horse is flying right now and should be 3/3 undefeated all prep. Is generally ridden to need a bit of luck but is weighted to win today. The price is juicy and overs and I will be having a significant stake on her!
Melbourne Best Each-Way All Day
Sandown Race 5 Bulbula
Just simply looks over the correct odds today. I have him closer to $10 on my book and we are getting triple this. Competitive race but if he runs up to what he has shown us this prep and improves onwards like yard has suggested he has, he goes close.
Value runners on the card today
Rosehill Race 3 Eqdaam
Rosehill Race 6 Monton
Sandown Race 7 Bishops Castle
Runners who based on statistics are over their correct odds today and should give us a good run for our money.
Sandown Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 7, 18
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4
Quaddie Leg Three: 6, 7, 10, 14, 15, 16
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 9, 11, 16
Rosehill Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 8, 11
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 8, 10
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 9
Promotions
Sportsbet
Money back if your horse runs 2nd in the Coolmore Classic – Race 7 at Rosehill (Max $100 – first bet only)
Sportingbet
Money back in the Coolmore Classic if your horse finishes within a length of the winner (maximum refund $100 – 1st bet only)
Ladbrokes
Run 2nd or 3rd in the Todman Stakes or Coolmore Classic? Free bet matched 100% up to $50.
It’s a Dundeel at $4 to win the Ranvet Stakes – $50 max bet.
Bookmaker
It’s a Dundeel at $4 to win the Ranvet Stakes – $50 max bet.
Betfair – Power of Five Promotion
You can Opt into Two of the Five promotions.
1. Ranvet Stakes Refund – Money back if your horse runs second in the Ranvet Stakes (Max Stake $50 – First Best of Five bet only)
2. Catkins Cash Back – Money back if Catkins misses the top three in the Coolmore Classic (Max Stake $25 – First Best of Five bet only)
3. Rosehill Quaddie – 25% Quaddie Boost (Max boost $200)
Unibet
Run 2nd or 3rd in the Coolmore Classic? Money back up to $100!
PalmerBet
Money back for 2nd or 3rd in all Sydney Group Ones this Autumn Carnival (max back up to $100) – *Must be 8 starters in race, only applies to your first Fixed Odds bet in race*
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Sandown Race 1
Felarof: Jumped awkwardly and did a fair bit wrong first up. Maiden only winner but will be coming from the back today. Others do appeal more.
The Spitfire: Hayes is keen on this bloke going forward. Ran very well last start at Flemington and if peaks today, will be going close.
Lassitude: Blocked for runs twice first up when $11. Showed enough to suggest he is good.
Armani Prince: May settle further forward today but this is a much harder race. Should compete.
Top Sight: 3.3L 4th to Earthquake and then 2.8L 4th down the straight last start. Up to 1500m is a query, but if measures up, the form is solid.
Singularity: Lost a plate last start down the straight at Flemington. Ran well but is his best down a straight and over less ground?
Veuvelicious: Had every chance last start and isn’t for mine today.
Comments: Tough way to open the meeting but Top Sight backing up today after a good run last start from a good barrier looks the one to back here.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Top Sight, but I probably won’t play without getting $3.50+
Sandown Race 2
Miss Outshine: Good horse on her day. Won 3 from 6 last prep but showed best over further distances. Others appeal more.
Whitten’s Delight: Went around short priced last start in Adelaide and failed with no real reasons. Back in class here today but I think this is much hader. Down 1kg helps.
Jacinta: Just forgive for being too far back last start at Canberra from a poor barrier. I liked the way she finished off the race and back in class here today she will go very close at the weights. Maps well from 6.
Catered: Total forgive run last start at Flemington when still only 2L off the win. WAYYYY back in class today. Last start rider dropped whip and the horse lost a plate. Previous run win was impressive and can go close today.
Royal Scandal: Good horse last prep but only going fairly this prep in my opinion. Last two runs have been her worst for a while. Back up in class today and off 53.5kg… weighted well enough.
Spending: No excuses the last few runs. Up 1.5kg today as well. Just not good enough for mine.
Lady Lakshmi: Ran home well but didn’t show enough to impress me 2nd up. Up to 1400m will suit and weighted well for this grade.
First print: Much further back last start at Flemington. Up 2kg today and not the best weighted today. Has claims.
La Amistad: Has run well at this distance previously but best over 2000m+.
Roxanne of Sydney: Solid runs last prep. Best seen over further than this today. Don’t dismiss.
Misscatelli: Ran home well in similar grade last start at MV. Need to find an extra length or two today to win.
Comments: I keep coming back to Jacinta and Catered here.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Catered to win. Lesser bet Jacinta.
Sandown Race 3
Only A Pleasure: Huge overs today. Shown his best over 3000m not 2100m, but has a 3L 7th in WFA-G2 company over in France… a 1L 3rd in 3YO-LR company to Verema over 3000m and seems to be best on a good track. Deserves every bit of the 60kg. Hasn’t raced in 6 months and Waller should have this bloke rock hard fit ready to win.
Surpass: Two best runs this prep were over 2400m the last two starts. Claim today is significant taking him back to 56.5kg and his last win was over a similar distance in similar company. Looks to be peaking.
Angola: Very good win at Flemington two runs back and then went close last start at Mornington. Back to 2000m a massive concern for me, but off 55.5kg and could find himself out the front or taking a sit… rates well.
Captain Fancypantz: Poorly weighted today up 2.5kg and Moor takes the ride. I think he will find a few too good here.
Pentometer: Win two back was very solid up at Randwick and last start lost a plate and was an ignore run on slow. Favourite for a reason.
Hot Power: First up run was a little bit of a surprise win, but the time run was very solid. Showed his best last prep over a similar distance to today and first up run should see a lot of improvement today. Don’t dismiss!
Justthewayyouare: Every chance last start just couldn’t get the win. Kah takes the ride again today. Good horse but probably finds a few too good here.
Keep The Cash: 0.5L 3rd to Gee Gees Blackflash four run sback is solid form. Rider lost whip last start but wasn’t close to them. Others appeal more even at weights.
Nisos: Good solid win last start at Flemington finally breaking through this prep after some solid enough runs. Can continue it on today.
Albonetti: 51kg today certainly appeals. Always runs a good race and will be flashing home from the back.. but even with this weight, not sure she has the required sprint.
Beliveau: Very strong run last start at Bendigo when blocked twice after jumping poorly. Similar excuses previous run at Moonee Valley! Can win.
Kaptain Kempinsky: Big step up in class. Not for mine.
Comments: 6 runners stand out here – Only A Pleasure is certainly the class… is this far enough and is he fit enough? Surpass is running well and goes well also at this distance. Easiest race he has been in for a long time… weighted well. Angola has never won at this distance but his last two runs have been almost career best.. flying.. 1 month off though freshen up… worked last start. Pentometer continues to run well this prep and there are no knocks.. but still yet to be proven in this rating of race in open grade. Hot Power is an unknown but first up was impressive. BeliveAu is the forgiven one for this race.. last two runs sensational and if gets a run today will be coming hard late.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Medium sized bet on Beliveau. Smaller bets on Angola and Surpass.
Sandown Race 4
Late Charge: Massive overs today. If he settles in his run and finds no trouble, he should be winning today. Not giving up an overly large amount of weight today to others well in at the market and his two runs this prep have been senational considering the work done.
Epic Saga: First two runs average at best. Poorly weighted today to be honest but should at least be improving on those first two runs.
Saralago: Showed nothing last start in similar company at Flemington. Would need to have improved sigmificantly to win this.
Rich River: Good enough win last start but based on previous runs very hard to give him a chance here.
Pinstripe Lane: Rate on 3 back run 1.8L 4th to Polanski over 1800m and you have to give him a chance first up.
Written: Good enough start to finish win two back and then just not good enough and ran down fairly easily last start. Barrier 16 hurts but will push over to get a run outside the leader today. Price looks unders.
Arctic Song: Continues to run well without winning. I think he is badly in at the weights here even with the claim.
Aragonese: Last two runs have been good without going close to winning. Average weight today, not for me.
Collins Street: I get the feeling we just have to ignore his first up run and rate on last run of last prep where he suggested he was above average. Will run better over this distance and maps well.
Megamind: Maiden only winner. I couldn’t have in this class of race!
More Rewarding: Impressive Geelong maiden winner but didn’t beat anything. I couldn’t have here.
Our Valdivia: Couldn’t win a BM-65 over in NZ at last run. Not for me.
Stellarized: Good enough win last start of last prep in maiden company. 4 months off and should have improved. Probably over the true odds.
Devil Woman: Wide barrier today removes quite a bit of hope today. Average class of race win last start and previous run couldn’t get close to Written. Not for me.
Cardiac: Three back run at FLemington had merit and should rate her on that run.
Comments: Really keen on Late Charge here even at the weights.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Late Charge to win.
Sandown Race 5
Bulbula: Huge overs today. Showed enough first up when blocked for runs. Last start just not a wet tracker. 58.5kg looks acceptable for me today and suits. Only issue is the barrier but I think Nisbet can give her a good ride and get the required position.
Politeness: Average riden given first up. 58kg today looks suitable but has to make up ground on Tango’s Daughter who was also impressive. Will be further back than I’d like today.
Tango’s Daughter: I think she maps further forward than mapping suggests today and that suits. Will be in a key position when it matters and Kah should be able to get her out and push for home when required. Big chance.
Choose: On the way up. This filly has shown promise with her two starts to date. This does look a bit too far of a step for mine though especially with the barrier! Should try contest the lead.
Godiva Rock: Took forever to get her win but she finally got it last start. Much harder grade today obviously.. did once go around as a $3.3 favourite beaten by Solicit! Going well enough but 59kg? Ouch.
Duble Barrel Daisy: Strong win in maiden company two back and then made the step up last start at the valley when blocked twice for a run. Down 0.5kg only today is an issue. Progressive type.
Quest For Peace: SHowed promise last prep and then first up run this prep was strong in weaker company. Can improve today… but needs a dead track IMO.
Berdini: Showed nothing last start which is a concern. Back to 1300m today and down 2kg… but hard to have. Needs it dead?
Leia: Two back run pace was on at Bendigo and suited. Last start didn’t have it. 55kg… but is she really good enough?
Young Tigers Jeuny: Two runs back at Caulfield in equal class a 2L 3rd to So Hasty. Up 1kg today from what run and first up… not so sure.
Melaleuca: Shown best over further and on much wetter. Can’t have on dry track.
Choice Princess: Average maiden win first up.. can’t have.
Van Welbilt: Snuck a maiden win then found out in similar grade last start… tough race to try and advance through.
Griante: Controlled the pace first up for an easy win. Won’t get that today.
Native Land: Not sure how to rate. Ignore last start last prep on heavy and rade on previous, but no form really for me to rate.. no thanks?
Hot Mama: Luckless first up this prep. Probably over the correct odds on that run.
Bella Mollie: Fairly easy win in maiden company first up start to finish in a 6 horse race. Have to take her on today.. but do think she is one at odds.
It’s A Thrilla: Average maiden win no thanks.
Comments: Unlucky race. Hard to split the top 3 in the market. Bulbula is massive overs today. Tanog’s Daughter gets the run required today.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 7, 18
Strategy: Bulbula to win. Tango’s Daughter smaller win bet.
Sandown Race 6
Ready To Rip: 6 months between runs today.. last start was a 0.8L 3rd to Spirit of Boom which looks good form when you look to last night.. goes well first up… at 1200m… but only 1 win on Good is a massive concern for me.
Pago Rock: Super disappointing last start at Flemington but Unpretentious did as well and look how close she went last night. Two back run behind Adamantium was super and meets him 1.5kg better off today and up to 1200m. Barrier 1 a massive issue.
Adamantium: One of my favourite horses ever. He goes hard and goes out the front.. grinds them down and holds on. He is better than this grade of race and last start showed he is a serious horse. Can continue that form here today especially helped by the long straight. Looks the winner.
Go The Knuckle: The main threat today, He is jumping out of the ground this prep. Had no right to finish so close last start and was a black booker that day. Weighted to win here down 3kg. Fast speed will be on to suit.
Happy Galaxy: Very disappointing last start. Weighted much better here but hard to see such a form turn around.
Stratcombe: Hasn’t shown us anything really since 2012. Last run was more than a year ago and failed to run on. Not for me.
Zedi Knight: Brave run two back and then last start was just not up to it. better over shorter distances for mine and straight too far today.
Mister Milton: Hard to have on first up run.
Planet Voyage: Hard to have on any runs this prep.
Office Bearer: Ran home well last start behind Adamantium but is very poorly weighted today against others.
Counted: Last two runs have been very poor. Better than this. Good track prboably not what she wants today?
Comments: Top four seem the ones to beat here.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4
Strategy: Adamantium to win. Smaller bet on Go The Knuckle
Sandown Race 7
Trade Commissioner: One of three Waller imports in this race. Top weight no claimer. Won 2 races over in UK at 1600m but were much easier than this. Goes well on Good or Dead.
Supremacy: Ignore last start when heavy track and rate on previous runs last prep. Probably still a fair way off these and better over further.
Wells: Jumper who isn’t looking to win today.
Vizhaka: Two runs this prep horrible. No for me.
Our Voodoo Prince: Waller import. One win over this distance in the past. Runs well on Good or Slow.. looking for further than this though.
Magic Me: Ran home very well 3rd to Minnie Downs in the Echuca Cup. Weighted ok here today.. don’t dismiss!
Rugged Cross: Got this guy first up in Aus and am happy to believe he is better than this class today. Concern he was off nearly a year though.. should probably be undefeated in Australia. Weighted so well today. Only issue is barrier but from 13 Still maps well.
Tax Evader: Down 3kg today which helps alot. Just too far back last start but rattled home well enough. Not the worst here.
Cry In Awe: Firs tup showed nothing. Looking for further form would suggest or wetter… just couldn’t have here regardless on first up run.
Wales: Resumed with a very big win at course over 1400m. Up to 1600m and down 0.5kg today suits. Map suggests he will be a long way back today, but has the progressiveness.
Our Sketta: Poorly weighted today against a few in the race and hard to have.
Green Roller: Looking for further than this today compared to David Hayes but has been working well, is fit, but will take something out of the run today. Can’t have from barrier.
Bel Rhythm: Had no luck last start at Moonee Valley in a slightly less classy race. 51kg today and just sit off the pace, looks a blow away chance.
Tooleybuc Kid: Hard to ignore the last start win of this close and then down 7.5kg today. Needs a run from barrier though.
Bishops Castle: From WFA-LR class down to this. A serious horse who is so well in at the weights. Big chance from barrier.
Salisbury: Not going close in this off last prep.
Comments: Tough race on paper with quite a few chances. Got it down to 3 at prices I like. Rugged Cross is a horse I have to be on here. Measured up in UK and two runs here in harder company were super. Deserves to be half the price. Tooleybuc Kid was massive last start and weighted to win today while Bishops Castle is so far down in grade today and has to be respected and is over the odds.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 6, 7, 10, 14, 15, 16
Strategy: Tooleybuc Kid to win. Smaller bets on Bishops Castle and Rugged Cross.
Sandown Race 8
Dany The Fox: Back in class here today and equal distance today. Has to improve 2nd up but did still run fairly well first up. Up to 57.5kg seems fair. Maps perfectly for a sit.
Escado: Showed nothing first up. Needs further.
Flying Hussler: Very poor first up. Needs further than this it seems or a wetter track.
Spacecraft: Never won first up but goes well at this distance. Expected to try lead and weighted ok.
Out of Cobber: Showed me nothing first up. I can’t see the improvement here 2nd up.
Ranked: Showed nothing last prep which was disappointing. Can he really have trained on this much? Needs further.
Minnie Downs: Good cup win last start and weighted even better today than Kitten. Need luck from barrier.
Kitten On The Run: Improving this prep with each run and looks to run well today from positive barrier.
Visiyani: Very interesting form lines. Loves a good track is the key for mine. Goes well over 1400-1600m on France and US form and I think measures up really well here if trained well.
Cavallo Nero : I dunno what to say. He was weighted to win last start but didn’t. Down to 51kg and up in class. Will run another good race.
Picture Editor: Better over further.
Muirfield: Never placed first up. Better over further.
Pro Tour: Progressive type who progresed through the grade slast prep. Never run on Good.
Comments: Not overly confident to play here, but if Visiyani looks well and fit in the yard then that is enough for me to have a play.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 9, 11, 16
Strategy: Visiyani E/W.
Rosehill Race 1
Title: 1.3L 2nd to Rebel Dane last prep and first up this prep off 3kg more… speed will be on which should suit.
Flemberge: Last two runs have been solid without threatening in Group 1 class. Previous run was a very good win in Group 3. Weighted nicely today but will need luck to get a run from the rail.
That’s A Good Idea: Showed us enough last prep to tell us he is a good horse. Last two runs have been very solid, but will he get the front today? A fair bit of speed around him… should go close but change of jockey hurts for me!
Va Pensiero: Beat Dissident last prep over 1200m from out the front… ran a close 4th to Lion of Belfort and looks to be the right grade to measure up to these. Yes be careful jumping up in grade today but the form lines are strong enough for the price we get today.
Kencella: Will be pushing for the front. Last few runs have all been very solidly run races and good speeds run. Weighted ok but others do appeal at weights for me. May struggle to get the right run from barrier.
Senta De Noche: I think this guy has a long way to go through the grades.. his times are solid. Weighted nicely first up but been off a long time! May set it up for a few behind him.
Diamond Oasis: Blunder at the 1000m cost him a fair bit IMO last start, but wasn’t good enough. Similar class today and not really weighted much better. Not for me today but could place.
Shivarchi: Ran home very well last four runs but no chocolates. Just finds a few too Good. Newitt a very good booking for luck.
Comments: Going a bit wide here.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Va Pensiero to win. Smaller bet Shivarchi.
Rosehill Race 2
Not playing in this race and not doing the form either. Casino Swoop looks the most progressive of the bunch.
Confidence 0%
Strategy: NO.
Rosehill Race 3
Unencumbered: Injurd during win two back and then ‘failed due to track condition’ last start… but I did hear rumours pre race that he wasn’t fully over the injury.. every bookie was taking the horse on remember! Barrier 2 very poor draw today IMO. Normal rider sick in hospital overseas well hurts… so much against today for mine. Rates to win but gee…
Jabali: Two peak runs this prep and had a month between runs now which should have him ready to win. Can’t fault either run this prep both were very solid Maps very well from barrier 7 today.
Cornrow: Ran home well for 3rd from the back in the BD. Barrier 1 hurts significantly. Cassidy takes ride also. Not for me.
Risen From Doubt: Found out first up this prep in slow track… but was that all that was to blame? Not sure. Certainly a good horse but I can’t have at prices.
Awesome Rock: Did a lot wrong last start at Flemington but found himself in a winning position and couldn’t win. Others preferred.
Scratch me Lucky: Good win last start in much easier company on slow. Not for me.
Wandjina: Did a lot wrong last start when green, blundering at start and getting injured in race. Back today already after only 2 weeks off a bit strange, but is one of the best here for sure.
Lockroy: Failed due to track last start. Probably a forgive run but hard to have on form alone.
Ghibellines: Continues to run good races but last start found 1-2 too good at Canberra. This looks much harder.
Eqdaam: Looks absolutely over the odds today. Price wouldn’t bring him up here just for the run. Think Jazz Song.
Comments: Not wanting to get heavily involved in this race. I think Jabali is the 2nd best horse here and the best, Unencumbered has many questions to answer. Wandjina looks the 3rd best but back from injury this soon? I can’t resist having a small go at Eqdaam at the price though. Spec bet it.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Jabali on top. Wandjina 2nd best. Eqdaam is a spec bet and probably all i bet here.
Rosehill Race 4
Earthquake: She delivered for us in spades during last month. Exactly a month between runs after two peak performances in a row, I think there is a lot of questions to be answered here. Expect they are winding her up for the Slipper distance and not this today. By far the best runner in the race at this distance… but the price doesn’t represent her chances here today IMO. Should be closer to $3s.
Mossfun: Beaten everything that has been thrown at her to date. I suspect last start on a very slow track can be put down to track and not the horses potential though? Up 1kg today and no longer getting that type of track, I think you have to take her on today.
Alpha Miss: Well beaten firs tup but ran home well 2nd up. Looks a good horse but back to dryer track today questions to be answered.
Lucky Raquie: Slowish tempo all things considered out the front last start. Was super hitting the line very well. Can run well.
Memorial: Unlucky to not get the win last start. Form lines check out and barrier 1 should get an ok position.
Clifton Red: Not sure what to exactly make of the first up run down the Flemington straight. It was good and the horse out front hit $1.01 in running. Long way back today.
Twirl: Continues to run well. MUCH harder today than last start and couldn’t win at Randwick when had every chance.
More Radiant: Well supported first up but couldn’t get the win. Much harder here but times are sound.
Sheezalady: Couldn’t win a maiden first up and had every chance on times run.
Comments: Finding it hard to bet around Earthquake today… jockey change is huge today though… stable giving ride to McEvoy and taking him off Mmeorial tells you what they think should be winning. I probably don’t play here.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Earthquake to win. Memorial the E/W pick if you want a good price.
Rosehill Race 5
Not going into much detail here. Diametric and Let’s Make Adeal are the two I want here. Both Group horses and both proven at distance.
Confidence 75
Strategy: Back Diametric to win. Smaller bet Let’s Makeadeal.
Rosehill Race 6
Mouro: Big run to win at Flemington first up. Barrier 1 today a concern needing to get a run but should be able to find it. Can continue good form.
Monton: Not good enough in WFA-G1 last start but previous run showed he has the speed to compete in similar class. Red Excitement form has held up also from three back run. Maps VERY well.
Riva De Lago: Not the same horse this prep from what we have seen. No thanks.
Malvaio: Ran home well enough first up but needs to significantly improve to be competitive here. Needs to find at least 2 lengths and I can’t see it happening.
Messene: Continues to run well and first up win just got there over Reparations. Reparations last Wednesday ran a huge race 6th to Mecir but was the eye-catching run for mine. Mecir was beaten by Messene in that race last start also. Down in weight today is another advantage.
Less Is More: First up run poor from back. Much further forward today from barrier 5. Still has to find lengths.
Ecuador: Looks under the odds today. Good runs all of last prep and this prep but this looks a classy bunch. Weighted well off 53kg, I agree, but others appeal more for me.
Dnachai: Another waller import. Never won at distance. Best shown over 2000m+.
Rhythm To Spare: Very disappointing firs tup. Hard to have today based alone on that run.
Weary: Poorly weighted against Ecuador today, but last prep did run 4th to Moonlight Cloud! The key today is back to a dryer ground for mine.
Comments: I thought that I really wanted to get involved here when I saw the markets and took the overs on Mouro, but the more I look into it, the harder it is! I think Messene is the real deal… Monton is very well weighted today and will run a cracker while Mouro ridden for luck is a huge threat.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 8, 11
Strategy: Messene to win. Lesser bet Monton.
Rosehill Race 7
Catkins: Handles any condition and has been super all prep. Big win last start also. Up to 1500m suits even more. Wide barrier the only issue today.
Royal Descent: Only running fairly this prep on first up run. Needs to find MUCH more.
Dear Demi: No real form on slow so firs tup run was great. Aimed at further runs over further though but 2.5kg better off today against Catkins is huge.
Steps In Time: Maps to lead and has a good record here. Distance looks the only query for mine but firs tup run convinced me she will run well.
Arinosa: First two runs shown nothing. Can’t have.
Fire Up Fifi: Only fair last start and has to find 3 lengths today. Could find them but not for me.
Hana’s Goal: Group class horse from Japan. Aim is further races though… goes well at distance.
Sharnee Rose: 2.5kg better off against Catkins today and is a blowout chance. WIll be better back on this ground today and extra 100m. Barrier sucks though.
Sweet Idea: Been going around in 3F-GP2 grade. This is a big step up. Not sure she is exactly weighted well enough today.
Bonaria: The blow-out chance here for mine. Her three runs this prep have been magic. Text’N Hurley and Hazard have come out next starts and won very classy races as well. By far the best weighted horse in the race. Maps well.
A Time for Julia: Continues to win. Outclassed Lili last start. Up in weight today and from barrier 3 maps nicely, but I have to take her on again today in this class.
Longport: Good horse, didn’t handle slow? May have just fluked the win last prep.
Real Surreal: Big step up in class and hasn’t been winning in own age group.
Gypsy Diamond: Continues to run home well but can’t win own age group so what chacne to claim one here?
Lucia Valentina: Solid first up run. Step up inc lass again and a no thanks for me.
Scorpio Queen: Weighted mucj better today than last start but still won’t get close.
Comments: I couldn’t put you off backing Catkins today and I’m sure you will find a deal or two giving you money back for 2nd or 3rd. A few at value I want to be all over.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 8, 10
Strategy: Bonaria E/W. Sharnee Rose lesser size bet.
Rosehill Race 8
Fiorente: Flying right now. Barrier 4 means he gets a great run once again and only a leader bias could do him in today. Best on the card.
It’s A Dundeel: Go listen to Murray Bakers interview with Shane Anderson on RSN yesterday and you will have been talked outta him. I can’t have.
Foreteller: Ready to win today and looks to be the one who can test Fiorente today. If swoopers out WIDE are getting favours, you want to have something on him.
Hawkspur: Ran nicely last start and returning to best. Up to his bet distance now and should be hitting the line hard. Barrier hurts to get a great run though.
Moriarty: Continues to improve and up to 2000m today should be suited. Probably finds a few too good though.
Carlton House: Better last start! Down 2kg today and back to a track that probably suits more today? Can’t ignore this runner.
Sertorius: What do we make of last start? was very poor. Up to 2000m where suited but is there this much improvement? Probably.
Silent Achiever: Two easy wins over in NZ but this is a whole new level. Weighted ok as always.
Gondokoro: Showed nothing and can’t win.
Comments: Fiorente to win. May saver Foreteller on the day.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7
Strategy: Fiorente to win.
Rosehill Race 9
Equator: Runs well first up. Last prep 2nd and 3rd to very good horses at Flem and Caulfield to finish the prep. Never did get a win but went close. Can go one better today.
Woodbine: Good 1.8L 4th to Dissident last start… which proves to be a good form race with his win last start. Barrier hurts but Oliver engaged.
Best Case: Form last prep solid. Firs tup run win was good enough. Don’t dismiss but not top picks.
Liberty’s Choice: Resumed well firs tup at Canberra but claimed late. On best form can run well.
Traitor: Very solid win last start at Randwick. Down 0.5kg today and up in class… but times don’t lie!
Malice: Two runs this prep not in this class. Not for me.
High tec: NZ runner maiden winner who won a CL2.. no thanks.
Guelph: Given an average ride at best last start when 2.3L 9th. Should be at her best today at least. Can win.
Chateau Lafaite: Can’t win on first up run. Can’t have.
All Cerise: Last two runs been solid around Forever Loved. Run a cheeky race.
Marmelo: Showed NADA firs tup and prices reflected that. Can’t see here.
Define: Doesn’t look this class on paper.
Comments: Traitor and Woodbine are the two that stand out on form.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 9
Strategy: Medium sized bet Traitor. Smaller bet Woodbine.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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