Welcome to The Profits form for Randwick and Caulfield! The heavy rain last week made it almost impossible to pick a winner early at Randwick so hopefully this week with less rain it is a little easier. There isn’t a lot of chances at big odds from what I can see this week up in Sydney with no Best Value, but the shorties do look nice ‘value’ in terms of the word all the same. As always, we hope our form matches up with yours! Good luck and happy punting.
*As you can tell with my write-ups, I like to look at ever factor possible, so it is only fair that I disclose that I came down with a bit of the ‘Man Flu’ today and had a bit of trouble focusing (took me an hour extra to do form). I don’t think it has made me miss anything, but I like to disclose anything like this.’
Promotions
Betfair are giving you $4 on either All Too Hard or More Joyous today up to $25 on their Tote Extra product. They are also offering the normal Three Times A Charm promotion. Find out more about the great promotions on offer here.
Best Bet Sydney
Multibet of Randwick R1 Toydini & R4 It’s a Dundeel at $2.10 (probably can shop around for $0.05 better).
Best Bet Melbourne
Caulfield Race 2 Coins
Next Best Sydney
Randwick Race 2 Driefontein
Next Best Melbourne
Caulfield Race 8 Tariana
Best Value Sydney
NONE
Best Value Melbourne
Caulfield Race 6 The New Boy
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Caulfield Race 1
Friday Hussy: Big win last start at the Valley. Won’t get the same advantage out front today at Caulfield. 3kg worse off against Blue Ribbon today. Can win but needs to find another gear.
Blue Ribbon: Too far back last start compared to previous run. From barrier 2 should sit closer and be very hard to beat at the weights.
Rock Robster: Blocked for runs last start and just didn’t get there. Either tell us that she should be winning this or that race wasn’t up to this. Probably the latter.
Spelldancer: Didn’t measure up last start when had everything in her favour at weights. Worse off at weights today can’t see a win.
Little Miss Amur: Hard to see a win here.
Twin Soul: Decent enough two back and then last start ran ok also. Others look better.
Averau: Big win in a VERY decent time last start in country class. Couldn’t rule out here but hard to back on two back fail.
Mumbeilly: Hard to have today but may be better suited at Caulfield than MV.
Tricky Maid: Not up to this.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Blue Ribbon is value at the price on weights. Start small today if having a go.
Caulfield Race 2
Benenden: Average at best first up but if finds best form from last prep could be the one to beat.. Is 1/1 2nd up and 3 wins from 4 goes at distance.
Coins: Huge win last start from midfield in a time that will be hard to beat. Up 4kg but should handle it. Big chance.
Big Chill: Not good enough on last two starts.
Misscatelli: hard to see the progression for this.
Tyanna: Doesn’t seem to be able to measure up here.
Mybenz: Run on very well last start but can she overturn 3.3L for 3kg difference? If sits further forward today has a chance.
Nautical: Ran on well enough last start but the 3.3L does look hard to overturn. Will have to come from the back it seems.
Catered: Up 2kg today. Hard to see the win at weights.
Explosive Cross: Maiden winner.
Cool Attraction: Maiden winner.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Hard to find fault with the run of Coins last start. Looks to be very progressive and can handle the weight today.
Caulfield Race 3
Churchill Dancer: Ran well two back just missing and then last start won very well in good time. Equally weighted and CAN win today.
Boer: First up snowden runner who looks to have potential.
Carillo: Won an average maiden. Has progression but not sure good enough.
Sid The Sloth: Couldn’t win a 4 person maiden.
Tonyboy: Down 1kg but hard to see the turn around on Churchill Dancer.
Register: Probably can forgive first up but hard to see the turn around.
The Huntress: Ran a decent time last start on dead and down 3kg. Could go well.
Write The Cheque: Won a maiden in ok time.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Churchill Dancer looks the one to beat.
Caulfield Race 4
Flamberge: Good win last start breaking through. Down 0.5kg today after claim. Barrier 12 an issue but should run well.
Lankan Rupee: Up 0.5kg today compared to Flamberge down 0.5kg after 0.4L loss. Probably better suited if going forward at Caulfield and can go close. Barrier a concern.
Awesome Bro: Won first up last prep and has won at distance. Found best over 1400m. May want further.
Planet Voyage: Up 2kg today. Poorly weighted.
Genteel: Down 2kg today and from barrier 1 will most likely sit closer to the front. Could be better suited today.
Such Hope: Won 3 in a row and was lucky last start with upheld result. Can go close again today.
Vital: Very big win last start in a solid time. Barrier 3 and could go very close.
Falcent: Progressive type who won well lat start at course and similar distance. Needs to show more today from barrier 13.
Cool God: Not sure he is good enough for this.
If I Could: Average first up. Hard to see the improvement.
Sistine Demon: Maiden winner.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Tough race with many chances. Vital E/W if anything at big odds.
Caulfield Race 5
Motivado: Very good horse on previous form but is surely suited to further? Has won at distance and well backed. Hard to tell.
Great Player: Not in any form to win this. Needs heavy.
Clanga’s Glory: Very strong run last start almost winning at Flemington. Could be value.
Rugged Cross: Good win last start and down 0.5kg again today. Looks value.
Dowager Queen: Showing nothing this prep.
Oriental Ruby: Keeps putting in solid runs this prep and can win from the back today.
Warator: Much harder class today. Hard to see the win.
Harry Trimbole: Weighted well today but hard to see how he will go. May be happy for a non-slow track?
Milensnake: Country horse up in the big smoke. Hard to see.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie leg one: 2, 4, 6, 9
Strategy: Four to five in this race. Hard to tell how Motivado will go. Rugged Cross on top but can’t touch this race.
Caulfield Race 6
De Fine Lago: Never placed firs tup. Looking for further.
New York: Down 0.5kg today for a good run from the back. May position further forward today. Has a chance.
ScaredyMac: Hard to see the win today on last start.
The New Boy: Big win last start after freshing up and has the ability to do it again today.
Solsay: Ran well enough last start but would have thought could win off the pace ran out front.
Reparations: Can be forgiven for first up run where overraced and missed start. Could be value.
Dane The Rave; Hard to see improvement. Needs a spell.
Tigerland: Progressive type who keep srunning well but will be pressured today. Happy to work around.
Aashiq: Good win three back. Injured two back and then last start either didnt handle slow or something went wrong. Has a chance.
Absalon: Good win in Adelaide but this looks much harder.
Little Bro: Poorly weighted today.
Aribaa: First up French runner for Kav who won at 1800m in 3YO class. Win wouldn’t shock.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg two: 4, 7, 11, 13
Strategy: The New Boy was huge last start and should be better suited today at Caulfield. Will be pushing forward and you can expect him to go right to the wire again. Suggest as normal you hedge your stake at like $2.20 and ride our the rest.
Caulfield Race 7
Alpha Proxima: Solid horse when fresh but hard to see him carrying 62kg to victory.
Bocuse: Not ran for a fair while. Looks outclassed at weights.
Eight Bills: Down in class but heavily up in weight which looks harsh. Won’t get the best run today.
Royal Bender: Won first up previously and goes well at distance. This looks to be winable grade and is weighted very well today. Big chance from barrier 2.
Queen Delight: Going forward today with only 52.5kg on board. Looks progressive but this is a step up.
Halle Rocks: Won 3 from 3 first up. Weighted nicely again today but barrier 13 hurts and may get further back than they want today. Has the skills to go close.
Delegance: Big win last start and should position far enough forward. Weighted poorly.
Umgeton: Down 4kg vs Delegance today! Big chance if can hold that weight.
Counter Sign: Can’t see the win here.
Day Procedure: Weighted to win today off 51kg. Down in class and weight and will position far enough forward. Would prefer he leads today!
Rifleman: Weighted well today and is progressive. Back to a winable race it looks like.
Thebarwonprince: Going ok but still needs to find a few more lengths.
Confidence: 80%
Quaddie leg three: 5, 9, 12, 13
Strategy: Day Procedure looks suited at the price and weight today while Royal Bender can win with a bit of luck.
Caulfield Race 8
Serene Star: Won 2 from 2 first up and loves this distance. Weighted fairly average today but the pace will be on and she will have every chance.
Tariana: Claim today is huge. Down to 56.5kg and last prep ran a 1:09.9 3.3L win here off 57kg. Has won 3 from 5 first up and if produces best, will be very hard to beat here.
Bonnie Mac: Running well but has to find a length or two more today.
Miss Bindi: Not good enough this prep.
You Can Dance: Good win at Cranbourne last start but this is much harder. Can run well.
Vain Attraction: Weighted to win off 52kg but needs to have found an extra length today.
Vibrant Rouge: 2/2 first up and 4 from 6 at distance. Never placed from 2 starts at track though. May get trapped too far back near rail from gate.
Our Emily Mia: Good star to finish run at Caulfield and off 51kg today again can go close. Only issue is that the run last start was a slow pace and it will be on out front today.
Dashing Shadow: Not good enough for this class.
Quicksilver Lass: Hard to see a win here but has won 2/2 second up.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie leg four: 1, 4, 13, 14
Strategy: Tariana the best in the race at weights while Serene Star has to be savered.
Randwick Race 1
Toydini: Meets some runners 2.5kg better off at weights today amazingly. Will enjoy the 2000m and only threat is Kingdoms.
Honorius: Can’t see the progression.
Kingdoms: Good runs behind It’s a Dundeel but previous form looks average. Not as good as Sacred Falls.
Hawkspur: Weighted poorly.
Laser Flash: Ran well enough last start but this is MUCH harder.
Sir Denzel: Hard to see the extra progression.
Usainity: Interesting runner over from NZ… but NZ runners firs tup here have poor records. Could run well either way.
Cameo: Can you forgive last start and look to defeat of Royal Descent which looks goo dofrm now? Probably not.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Toydini looks to be one of the most progressive going around and they are picking and choosing the races carefully. Current odds of $1.60 look very reasonable!
Randwick Race 2
Driefontein: Ignore last start when not suited by slow track or distance. Back to 1400m and if finds best, goes very close today.
Catkins: Just keeps on winning. Speedmaps well.
Meidung: Ran on well enough last start but needs to find a lot more in this class today.
Diamond Earth: Good last start but not suited by extra distance.
Silk Pins: Not good enough on recent form.
Gullible: Last run was very poor. Needs to improve.
Ciao: Hard to see here.
Secret Delight: hard to see the win today.
Medusa’s Miss: Can forgive last start but still needs to find a few lengths in this class.
Amarachi: Good horse but needs to improve.
Five Rocks: Outclassed last start and pooly weighted today.
Rosalie: Not progressive enough.
Kim Dynasty: Only won a maiden.
Missy Cummings: Time was good last start but has to show much more than that.
Sherbet Bomb: Not good enough.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Quite a few chances here but Driefontein looks the value.
Randwick Race 3
Say No More: Didn’t show much first up in Group 3 class.. but goes better at this distance. Is 3 wins from 3 at distance. Can’t dismiss but needs to show much more.
Xanadu: Another New Zealand runner who goes well at this distance. Ran 2nd in a Group 1 and WFA-G1. In this.
Skyerush: Brave Group 3 win three runs back and then last start good win at Randwick. Down 1.5kg today down in grade.Looks suited.
Raspberries: Awfully weighted today.
Shannara: Not running good enough this prep to snatch the win.
Floria: Doesn’t look as good as the other New Zealand runners.
Cathay Lady: Very strong 4th behind Arinosa two back and then lead which was just stupid last start. Hopefully takes a sit today but don’t hold your breath.
Scorpio Queen: Not up to this on last start run.
Sharmadani: Good run two back but last start poor. Weighted ok but has to improve.
Plucky Belle: Good win down in Melbourne from the back.
Cannery Row: Needs to improve.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Too many chances here for mine.
Randwick Race 4
Manighar: I thought his run last start was VERY solid behind Pierro on a surface that doesn’t suit. Will be better suited today and run well.
Reliable Man: Good run first up on a distance too short. Look to previous runs including 4th to So You Think over 2000m in GB and you think has a good chance of running well.
Glass Harmonium: Missed start and never a chance last start. Could run well if jumps.
Happy Trails: Poor last start. Hard to see the improvement today but will enjoy less rain.
Silent Achiever: Injured during race when just missed getting there at the line. Huge chance today.
Secret Admirer: Not good enough here it seems.
Zurella: Super poor last start and will struggle.
It’s A Dundeel: Huge progression this prep. Hard to see a loss.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: It’s a Dundeel should be winning this. Can make a case to back Manighar, Reliable Man and Silent Achiever all to place.
Randwick Race 5
Riocetto: Massive unexpected win last start on Heavy. Ate up the ground and may go close again today.
Criterion: Should jump better today and run close to winning this.
Fast ‘N’ Rocking: Can run well enough today but hard to know if suited by 1600m.
Fuerza: hard to see the win after last start.
Charlie Boy: Not good enough.
Champollion: Average last start.
Havana: Not good enough on last start.
Equator: Running well enough but needs to record better times.
Drago: Not up to this.
Star Wars: Not good enough.
Guelph: Big win last start and suited from barrier 6 today. Big chance.
Scandiva: Main threat it seems. Put in a strong run and can win.
Shahad: Didn’t show enough.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg one: 1, 11, 12
Strategy: Back Guelph and saver Scandiva. Looks a winning long term play.
Randwick Race 6
Mourayan: Average run last start. Never won at distance and top weight.
Niwot: Not going good enough for this.
Julienas: Ignore last start when something just went wrong. Better suited today and will go close.
Kelinni: Big big big win with weight last start on Heavy. Down 3kg today and keeps running well. Suited by distance.
Maluckyday: Over Rated is the word. Keeps ‘running well’ but not winning. Better weighted today but needs to find 2 lengths.
Blood Brotha: Ran well first up but hard to see the win here.
Norsqui: Very big win at distance two back but this looks harder.
Aliyana Tilde: Will go well once again today but up in class.
Coliseo: Hard to have on recent form.
Macedonian: Can’t win on previous runs.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie leg two: 3, 4
Strategy: Hard to back this race. Julienas looks overs while Kelinni 4th in Melbourne Cup makes the horse hard to oppose.
Randwick Race 7
Rangirangdoo: Not sure Rangi measures up here and best form probably behind him. Still, good runs last prep. Can go nicely today.
Fiorente: Never run this distance. better suited to further.
Rain Affair: Fairly average early sectionals last start cost a good run. Can improve but not good enough here it seems.
Rolling Pin:: Not good enough.
Smokin’ Joey: not good enough on recent runs.
More Joyous: According to most a ‘moral beaten’ last start but a camp would have won when got just a big of clear room. Can win but needs more luck.
All Too Hard: Huge last two starts and weighted to win again today.
Epaulette: Massive run behind black cav last start but needs to improve again.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg three: 6, 7, 8
Strategy: Happy to take All Too hard at the $4 quote on Betfair Tote Promotion. Most likely saver More Joyous.
Randwick Race 8
Fat Al: Ignore last two runs and look to previous runs. Has won first up and should be fit.
Manawanui: Bled during last start so simply forgive. 3 wins 2 places from 6 at distance and has won first up previously. Probably better at further but still good.
Decision Time: Galloped on last start so forgive. Two previous runs very strong behind Snitzerland and Bel Sprinter. Every chance here.
Firebolt: Great form last prep but better suited to further. Still a big chance.
Master Harry: Hard to have on previous form lines.
Skytrain: Big win on heavy two back. Not sure will be suited here but no bad runs this prep.
Title: Poor last three runs.
Rareied: Good run two back and then last start poor. Go forward and has a chance.
See The World: Too far back last start and better suited today. Can go ok.
Bold Glance: Decent firs tup record but may want further.
Somepin Anypin: Back at races today after a fair time off. Good form over 1200m and could be value.
Instinction: Not good enough this prep.
Soft Sand: Didn’t show enough. No thanks.
Stratana: Good enough behind Shamus but not winning form here.
Renewed Vitality: No thanks on first up record and previous form.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie leg four: 1, 2, 4, 8, 13
Strategy: See how the day is going. Probably too open to have a play.
Please Note:
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