Welcome to The Profits form guide for Oaks Day at Flemington on 6 November 2014. A tough card as always for Oaks Day and i’m really looking forward to one of the most open Oaks in a while. We are hoping to start the day with a bit of money in our pockets from Eloping in the 3rd race and continue on from there. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
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Melbourne Best Bet
Flemington Race 3 Eloping
Forgive her last start run on Saturday, it was much better than it looked. The wind gave all the leaders that day no chance and she held on to beat off Rich Enuff and any other front runner in the race including Rubick and Earthquake. Back in class today and a quieter wind, she will have every chance the price being bet is well overs against this lot.
Melbourne Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 6 Shamal Wind
This is a tough race and Shamal Wind is a brave horse who just hasn’t been able to finish them off this prep. Her best runs have always come at Flemington down the straight, as she always gets her chance. Her key is that she has a brilliant 300m sprint on her and the straight allows her to be sat on with cover until the chance to get out and hit the line is given. The speed will be on with Bounding setting it up out front today and i’m sure she will have the required tempo to have every chance.
Melbourne Best Place Bet
Flemington Race 9 Red Inca
Ran very well in the Sale Cup behind Sysmo and Sonntag. Sysmo backed up this form during the week and the majority of chances in this race all come off similar formlines. I’m very willing to trust these different form lines that have been proven in a race where Red Inca maps well enough off a tempo that will suit. Currently being bet at $8/$2.5 and well over the correct odds.
Two place bets
Flemington Race 7 Fab Fevola
Flemington Race 4 Consoling Amy
Flemington MAIN Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 4, 5, 15, 16
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 10, 15, 16
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 5, 6, 9, 11
Quaddie Leg Four: 4, 5, 7, 8
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1
There is a lot of subjective form in this race that I can’t give you a runner-by-runner review.
Refer has shown enough to measure up while Tear Gas is a horse I have a lot of time for also. Miss Maggiebeel measured up last prep but first two runs have been below average.
I honestly can’t give you with any confidence a tip here (although i will), but it wouldn’t shock me to see something improve beyond them all here.
Comments: Sit this one out.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Miss Maggiebeel E/W.
Flemington Race 2
Pyrrolic: Continues to run really well without winning. Up to 1800m today and is this the distance he wants? Harder class again is the massive issue at the weights. Will run well but tough barrier.
Saigon Tea: Ran very well 2nd up last start over 2000m behind Grand Marshal who came out and won on Tuesday in very good fashion. Weighted nicely in this class today and if reproduces that run from last start, expect her to be hard to beat going forward again today.
Evangelist: Import who hasn’t exactly measured up to this quality of race just yet. Was good last start ridden off the pace but with no mapped speed, may try lead today and crawl it?
Quick Snitzel: Good enough wins three and four back in lesser class but last two starts been well covered. Back to a good surface helps but has to find much more.
Jesse Belle: Is she going as good this prep? I’m not sold she is as good as last prep. Back in class today though and at Flemington, she seems suited. Issue with step to 1800m for me as well though.
Magnapal: Good horse on his day. Progresses well into prep and should be better for the runs this prep. Has to improve again though.
What’s In A Name: Won well off a hot tempo four back, but last three runs were not up to this.
By The Grace: All runs this prep have been pretty good without winning or looking the winner. Last start was the closest in similar company. Last win was at this track over 1600m so is well suited and Oliver takes the ride. Barrier the issue today.
Honey Steel’s Gold: First up run in much easier company over 1400m was fairly average if i’m honest. Did make up ground but based on that run you would want to see much more improvement. Not good enough for these.
Smashing Doubt: Won two in a row in much easier company. Oliver jumps off the horse today is telling. Hard to see him measuring up to these from barrier.
Time to Test: First two runs this prep went around short priced at Randwick and couldn’t place. I he this good? I think wants it wetter.
You Rock: Every chance last few runs but just not up to this standard. Barrier doesn’t help.
Present Arms: 2L off the last 5 runs and not up to this grade of race even if been unlucky.
Harare: Last two runs had merit but in same grade and not in this grade
Comments: Pyrrolic is over the odds today and will be going close again. Saigon tea is hard to argue against especially the way Grand Marshal won on tuesday and there is a lack of pace which will see her in the right spot. By The Grace has an awkward barrier which may prove too difficult.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Saigon Tea E/W.
Flemington Race 3
Eloping: I rate this horse as a very top talent in the sprinting division. Sat out the front last start and was a shot duck.. but how well did she run anyway? The top 3 who kicked clear all sat off the pace in 7th, 14th and 11th during the run. Eloping was the first home of the punch who sat on the speed which included Rich Enuff, Rubick and Time For War. Armada who sat off his back the whole race only beat him by 0.2L and horses like Earthquake and Scissor Kick finished behind. Don’t let the 5.5L defeat fool you, it was a very good run and the horse stuck on to the line strongly beating off key rivals. She will be in the best part of the track from the good barrier and will be the one to chase down.
Tawteen: Easy win last start at Moonee Valley when allowed to control tempo and just sprint away from them. Barrier has her in the poor side of the track today. Has to improve again to win this for mine.
Sultry Feeling: Every chance last start at Caulfield and probably suggest three previous runs this prep. Shown best on wetter tracks.
Unequivocal: Beat home Delectation last start before spell and ran 3L 3rd to Peggy Jean. Resume rates her with a big chance today if she is as good as she was last prep. Barrier 19 so can sit right off Eloping. Ability to win.
Dual Star: 0.2L 2nd to Mossfun last prep as a 2YO and both other runs were only fair. First up horrible on heavy.. respect but couldn’t back.
Aerobar: Only ever raced on wet surfaces. 3L behind Wandjina.. 1L behind Alpha Miss.. finally got the win last start in maiden class on heavy. No clue how it will race on good.
Snip Spur: Couldn’t win in BM-60 class last start off similar weight. Has ability but struggle to set the peak here.
Onemorezeta: Strong enough times both runs this prep. Step up in class again here and up 4kg the key for mine. Will be out front.
I Am Gypsy: This is a horse that has a lot of issues. Last start maiden win didn’t have to beat much in reality. Has ability.
Top Dolly: This horse just keeps eating our money. Can’t suggest she steps up again at this grade and wins.
Puzzle: Puzzled a few last prep after a good win on slow in maiden company didn’t come on. Doesn’t look good enough on last prep.
Chiavari: Slow time maiden winner from out the front at Cranbourne. Happy to avoid here.
Fantasy Eight: Won very well first up at Cranbourne in a maiden. Impressive almost 4 length win… but didn’t beat much at all.. 3rd and 4th raced since and run poorly. Hard to judge as winning here.
Inferential: Hasn’t measured up either run this prep and only maiden winner last prep. Not up to this.
White House Lady: Good win on heavy first up, this isn’t heavy today. No thanks.
Snake Charmer: Average maiden win. Hard to see making the jump.
Appalachian Annie: Ran decently first up and this is a big step up in class. Times appeal more than other first starters.
Comments: I’ve justified in the comments why we want to be with Eloping again today and also why Unequivocal first up is worth a bet also.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Eloping to win. Smaller bet Unequivocal
Flemington Race 4
Lady Echelon: Just ignore last start and rate on first up run at Doomben. Time was very solid and she toughed it out. Previous prep also she was quite good in similar class if not harder. Have to respect here.
Beauty’s Beast: Had every chance last start at Caulfield and was well beaten by Freshwater Storm. Previous run to Hosting was also a little disappointing. They bet him as favourite again.. Oliver jumps off! Telling IMO.
Time to Plunder: QLD raider who hasn’t won all prep. Up in class again and first run at 1400m for prep. Times are ok but has to improve for this.
Slate on Edge: snuck home from the front to win last start at MV and previous run close 2nd to Freshwater Storm.. also beat Beauty’s Beast that day but meets poorly at the weights. Has to improve.
Specter: Good horse but very hard one to judge. Only ever won on a dead track in life but runs well on good. First up run was poor and needs to improve significantly on that.
Secret Toy Bizness: Surprise 2nd last start at MV in the greys race. Weighted ok today but has to improve again.
Dasilva: Very good win two back at MV but that was a peak run and went well backwards last start. Not saying she can’t win, but she has to reproduce her best and she is very inconsistent.
Emboldened: Been running fairly in much easier company but this is a huge step up in class and i’m comfortable saying he can’t win on this form lines.
Smoken Cash:Decent horse who doesn’t win out of turn. Very strong start to finish 2nd in easier company, but looks to be back to his best and can run a nice race.
Fantome Gris: Looked to be a really good type last prep but just had a few things go wrong at the end of prep. First up slowly away and over unsuitable distance. D Oliver takes the ride for a reason. Looks suited here on progression.
Consoling Amy: Ran home very well last start at Caulfield. That run was first up and expect improvement today. She looks a massive price here.
Waitaha Prophecy: Didn’t measure up last start at Caulfield or three back either. Two back run wouldn’t measure up here.
Creamery Lane: Since maiden win first up hasn’t exactly measured up in top class. Very happy to take on here.
Wilscot: Couldn’t win last start in a R-58 race. Explains it all really.
Comments: Beauty’s Beast is probably the best horse in this race but hasn’t been running like it recently. I can’t pass up Consoling Amy on that last run at Caulfield, it was huge and she will take improvement from that. Looks massive overs.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Consoling Amy E/W
Flemington Race 5
Easy Drama: Ran a strong 5th last start at Caulfield with top weight. Returns today up to 1800m which looks to suit and from a more positive barrier can position slightly further forward and be a bit shot to win.
Petrology: Hasn’t been within 3L of a win this prep. Up to 1800m looks a bit of a throw at the stumps. Hard to see the progression but this is a race lacking in class so can’t write off.
Tashbeeh: Seemed to have every chance the last two starts to put them away and just wasn’t good enough. Up to 1800m a bit of a distance increase as they went 1550 back to 1400m. Not for me here.
Beau’s My Boy: Ran better than expected last start over in Adelaide from the front. Times meant he should have though and hard to see such an easy run today.
Hero I Am: Went around a short price at Randwick last start and was rather disappointing up to 1600m again. I can’t see the jump in grade at this distance on what i’ve seen so far.
Proactive: Couldn’t win a maiden last start at Newcastle and has gone around as $1.4, $1.8 and $2.4 favourite and lost all 3 runs this prep. Did run 2nd to Delectation last prep is the main reason for that. Surely has to improve to win here.
Chill Party: Won fairly well last start in bm-64 grade. Looks to be progressing nicely but has to find much more here.
San Carlos: Maiden winner in fairly average time from out the front. Have to improve a good 2 lengths on that run to win here.
Kodinhi: Very strong win last start at Bendigo in maiden class from out the front. Will he get it that easy today? Not so sure, but did measure up last prep 2.5L off Merion. Have to respect.
Upham: Ran well enough last start at Mornington showing improvement to win a maiden. Has been well backed and stable have big opinion.
Spur on Gold: Didn’t stay the 2200m last start at Geelong. Back to this distance today but maiden form wasn’t well enough to suggest a win here.
Singularity: Ran home well without impressing last start at Moonee Valley. Have to improve on that but surely we respect the run.
Comments: Tough race. Lots of progression to come from horses and very hard to match up form lines. Happy to sit this one out.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Easy Drama E/W
Flemington Race 6
Miracles of Life: Good win last start at Caulfield but had all the favours in running. Hard to see her measuring up with a strong tempo set out front off these weights.
Gregers: Every chance last start but fell in a hole with the tempo at Caulfield. Not easier today.
Rebel Bride: WFA winner over in Tasmania at 1200m. Decent horse but beaten by Road Trippin is a key to how good the horse is. Happy to bet around.
Shamal Wind: What can we make of her? Her best win was course and distance over 1000m over a very strong time. She will be in the right side of the track and be sitting off them. Just needs luck to get a run at the right time and she can win.
Bounding: Better on pace than taking a sit has proven last start when last but still only 2.5L off them. Not sure what to make of her here… but either way she will have to set a strong tempo.
Spirits Dance: Almost held on rated very well out the front last start at Moonee Valley. Has won previously at track and has been running well from out the front. Have to improve again though.
Lilliburlero: Back to 1100m first up. Goes well first up on last two preps form and rates well enough in this class. Have to respect but first time down straight a massive concern at distance.
Minaj: Hasn’t been the same horse this prep. Hard to see the required improvement here today.
Brilliant Bisc: Two runs this prep after two wins have been solid but both times outclassed. Expect similar today.
Cradle Me: She is a good horse and continues to run well. Unlucky to come here last start against a horse going really well in The Messina Nymph. Will be suited to Flemington today.
Kristy Lee: Meow! Her only run down the straight was ok, but didn’t run behind much. Can’t have here.
Vain Queen: D Oliver takes the ride today… but last three runs this prep have all been 2.5L or less off them. Won 3 from 4 down the straight and just enjoys it… but can we really suggest she improves onwards again. Best runs on dead or wetter though.
Vain Attraction: Never placed down the straight. Two back win was impressive. Different jockey today hurts.
Counted: Never won at track previously. Las twin was at start of year in similar class but needs to have found another gear.
Comments: The pace will suit Shamal Wind today and I think it is finally her day to get that win on the board. She is absolutely flying.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Shamal Wind to win.
Flemington Race 7
Flamberge: Got a win first up at Caulfield in much easier company and then shown nothing since. Back to 1000m at Flemington where he has been best rated in the past, but I can’t see it at the weights.
We’re Gonna Rock: Ran 1.3L 2nd to Black Caviar in 2012. Then won Group3 beating Spirit of Boom over 1200m here, 1.5L 2nd to Moment of Change in Group 1 over 1400m and then 2.5L 3rd to Sea Siren in WFA-G1 class after that from the back. He proved to be a serious horse but hasn’t been seen for more than 2 years! Have to assume they have him ready for today after all that time and if he returns at close to best, he is a chance here to win it all.
Straight Gold: Didn’t get a good shot at them last start. Hard to see him making up the 3 lengths required of him from two back run. Has ability at this distance though and should be suited to the straight on those Group runs.
It is Written: He keeps running well but he isn’t winning. Down the straight he hasn’t measured up in the past and i’ll take him on here.
Pago Rock: Up down up down. This guy is very hard to catch. Has won once here before and put in some good runs also.. happy to be with others.
Canali: Decent horse, but not going well enough this prep to place here.
Belfast Boy: What has he been beating this prep? Has won a huge amount and also at this track 3 times previous.. but this is a higher class than he is up to at his old age on recent form.
Fab Fevola: They are betting huge odds on him again. Diamond Oasis would be going around at what, $8 here at maximum today? He tested him all the way and was closing the final 50m. I think he will get the 1000m today and he is a huge place price at very least.
Esprit De Bullet: Hasn’t been his best either run this prep. Is age catching up with him? Has won here in past but in much easier company (beat fab fevola by a nose).
Pocket Rockets: Not the best first up record. Last prep ran some okay races including down the straight. Has won 2 from 4 down straight but couldn’t get a win last prep. Have to have improved in off-season.
Mr Make Believe: Last prep was disappointing 3 of 4 runs. Did run 0.4L 4th at course and distance 2nd up last prep.. change of yards I believe? Can’t ignore but can’t exactly be confident either.
Rocky King: Have to just forgive last start run at MV. That wasn’t him. Trust on best form.
Atmospherical: Surprised to see her well supported in the market. Was a good win last start but on that and previous form isn’t rated in top 3 for mine. Have to improve and get a gem of a ride.
Angels Beach: Huge win last start at Cranbourne and returned to best. Last run at track over 1100m won very well, will handle it.
Rifleman: Continues to run well without winning. Failed at track all 3 runs. No thanks.
Consorting: Fab Fevola was a better run than him last start! This is much harder company for him and I can’t see it happening
Comments: We’re Gonna Rock, Fab Fevola, Angels Beach and Kaiser Sun are the four that stick out for mine here.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Angels Beach to win. Small win bets on We’re Gonna Rock & Fab Fevola ($41/$51 currently).
Flemington Race 8
Fontein Ruby: Very disappointing run at track over 2000m on Saturday. Was never winning though with such a speed on into the wind. Just forgive that run but remember that she has to produce again up to 2500m and will have company. Fell out of it more than yesterjoy the massive issue.
Go Indy Go: Continues to run strong races without winning. The key is that she has a explosive turn of foot for about 400m and you have to make the most of it by having her in the right position when using it. There is no doubt in my mind that she has the fastest 200m of any horse in this prep, but can she stay the 2500m and produce the sectionals required? Jury is out.
Crafty: Hype horse who has proven to be a good filly, but just beaten last two runs this prep. Doesn’t have a ‘turn of foot’ like some of the others.. top gear is not as fast as others here, but has the ability to stay and keep producing solid sectionals. Last start at Caulfield over 2000m final 4 sectional splits were 12.11, 12.18, 12.01 and 12.35. Compare this to Thunder Lady who put in a 11.67 400-200m and you have different horses all together. Due to the way the race was run on Saturday in the Wakeful, they really only sprinted from the 600m to the finish and i’m not convinced it will race that way. If they let go early out front, Crafty is the one to grind them down.
Lumosty: Back to her best last start at Moonee Valley when won with ease from start to finish… but didn’t really beat much that day. Going to be out the front again today but massive query, especially for a Fastnet Rock over the 2500m. Enough wind to put her off also.
Thunder Lady: Huge win last start at Flemington running them all down. Was ridden perfectly in the race and was solid over the final 200m. Looks to be wanting the extra distance today and with a similar run will be right in the finish.
Abduction: Good runs up in Sydney and stepping up in distance ran very well 2nd to Thunder Lady on Saturday. Found best on Good tracks from my ratings and will get that today. Had the run of the race last start at Flemington but still got run down thanks to final sectional of 12.82 compared to winners 12.46. Winner came off her back. Wasn’t much in it though, but I would say that the winner had her covered with the sectionals telling the story. Has to improve over the extra distance and I have questions on that.
Golconda: Had every chance two back and was poor home, but last start was a good final 200m at Flemington. Should stay no troubles and has to be respected. Probably just too far back and doesn’t have the solid sectionals required.
Set Square: Won two in a row and on the up. Had a few weeks off in prep for this. On times, Thunder Lady sit more work yesterday into the wind yet was a faster final 1000m than Set Square was in the win at Caulfield on a firmer surface. Didn’t beat much that day.
Game of Fame: Had her chance at Geelong and couldn’t close on them. Looks a decent type and a place chance if improves. Will stay.
Imperial Lass: Had every chance in this class the last few runs but just not good enough. Hard to have as a chance.
Yesterjoy: Ignore two back run and rate her on last start at Flemington when was on-pace and not suited by the wind. Stuck on better than Fontein Ruby is the key for mine. Outsider chance.
Hipster Girl: Every chance all runs this prep and is a non-winner. Can’t see the win in her here.
Comments: This is a tough race on paper. I get the feeling it will be run and won by a grinder, not a tactical sit and sprint ride, it’s going to be a horse who is finding all the way down the straight and Crafty suits this field. Yesterjoy also looks to be this type of horse who will be sitting on pace and can improve onwards and is the value.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Crafty to win. Smaller bet Yesterjoy.
Flemington Race 9
Orientaped: Didn’t have to beat much last start to win. Previous few runs have all been decent but just off the class. Has ability but not weight here looks poorly treated from barrier.
Full Hand: Never wins out of turn. 3 runs at track for 0 places. Hard to measure him up here off the seymour cup run.
Leveraction: Start to finish winner at Moonee Valley last start thanks to a leader bias and poor ride on Arctic Song to hand up the rail. Giving Arctic Song 2kg, very hard to see him winning today.
Floatmyboat: Close but no win last two starts. Every chance two back at Cranbourne out the front and chased home Lady Lakshmi well but Lady failed here this week. Have to respect consistent type and runs solid races, but is he this class?
Arctic Song: The class of the race, he has been running some solid races all prep but keeps finding a way to lose. Race looks suited to him today at the weights and also with mapping.
Gridhian: Ran home well enough for 3rd last start. Will be better suited by this track, but has to improve again to be a chance.
Red Inca: Sysmo backed up the form of the Sale Cup this week and Red Inca flew home and was a eye-catcher. Back to his best it seems and will be hoping for a bit of sting to find best. Weighted nicely in this class.
Bel Seal: Form links in with Floatmyboat exactly. Did actually beat Arctic Song three runs back as well and meets 0.5kg worse off at weights. Maps well from mate.
Sadaqa: Every chance both runs this prep in easier company. Weight seems ok enough.. did run 3L 2nd to The Cleaner last prep but that was deep into prep.
Aurum Spirit: Got the win from the back last start at Geelong. Up inc lass again but will appreciate being down in the weights. Rates well enough off that last run.
Millie’s Mann: In easier class last start ran a close 3rd. Previous runs this prep has won in country class and ran well behind Running Bull at Geelong. Continues to run well but has to improve to get a place or even win here.
Alarmist: Not in this race on form this prep. No thanks.
Comments: Leveraction, Floatmyboat, Arctic Song and Bel Seal all have the same form lines and have been trading races. Red Inca comes in with the different form lines and one that rates to win.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Red Inca E/W
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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