Welcome to The Profits form guide for Mornington and Newcastle for 17 September 2014. Two races stick out for me and two runners I am keen to continue following. Griante is a HUGE price with one book tomorrow and goes in as a Best Bet while Mr Chard at the $4.60 put up was also a play at the price. How awesome was last Saturday? Just 0.1L more and it would have been 3 from 3 best bets. Merion was a good return and was a nice futures bet for the Guineas if you also saw the value here while Rich Enuff continues to show us why someone offered $1,000,000 for the horse! As always I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Mornington Race 1 Griante
Next Best
Newcastle Race 7 Mr Chard
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Mornington Race 1
Expecting the rail to be red hot today and Griante maps to lead and win here. Will be suited by the track condition and is weighted very well back in this class today over 1200m. Most importantly, $4.20 is being bet right now with Bet365 which is more than $1 above any other book!
Double Dee is the main threat and a saver.
Comments: Best Betting Griante here!
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Griante to win. Saver Double Dee.
Newcastle Race 7
Slow Pace: Showed a huge amount of talent firs prep in Aus after measuring up in Group class over in Europe. First up was very unlucky at Newcastle in Group 3 company over a similar distance on a Good track to run 3rd. Could have won that day. Then measured up from the back in Group 3 at Radnwick behind SPillway which looks good form now! Highest rating is far above all of these in the race and deserves the weight. Big chance and huge odds. May look the winner at the 100m.
Hooked: Ran a blinder first up but then was very disappointing last start falling out of it very easy at Randwick in Group 2 class. Easier class today, but they didn’t accept for the Caulfield Cup with her and that tells me alot about where they think she is at.
Mr Chard: Ran a blinder all three starts this prep and continues to impress. Won very well last start at course and maps to have a charmed run again. Weighted to win here. Maps best.
Vilanova: Very short price offered up today off the first up run. Did enough to the line by was still 3 lengths off them in 6th. I would disagree with anyone suggesting the horse doesn’t handle heavy, it does from what i’ve seen both starts. Should improve back on a better surface today but is best seen over much further.
Danchai: Disappointed firs tup on ground that should have suited. Showed best last prep over further. Not this distance for me.
Mighty Lucky: 2nd up run this prep was the peak run. Got every chance off a very average run timed race and just missed out. Last start had to do much more and fell out of it fast. Won’t get it so easy today. Not for me.
Rugged Cross: Good win last start at Rosehill on Heavy. Won’t get that ground today. Looks unders in this class to me on this ground against these runners.
Billy Aucash: Couldn’t get a win in this class up in Queensland. Kept running well but couldn’t win. Can’t see measuring up to these!
Spy Decoder: Surprised to see him so short in the markets today. Ran home well last start on Heavy was no match for Supreme Warrior. Not sure this is Group class form at all. Can’t have.
Comments: Very confident to focus on two runners. Mr Chard is weighted and maps to win today while Slow Pace has the rating and ability to blow the field away and is a huge price.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Mr Chard to win (3 units). Slow Pace to win (1 unit).
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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