Welcome to The Profits form guide for Moonee Valley on 6 September 2014. Last week was a disaster and hopefully we can make up for it with a full card today at Money Valley. An interesting card on offer and there are a few runners i’m very interested in. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Melbourne Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 2 Text’n Hurley & Reckless Assassin
Two horse play. Backing Text’n Hurley 2 units and Reckless Assassin 1.5 units. Reckless Assassin has saluted for us as best bets the last two attempts and I see no reason why we can’t take some cash again today, The main threat today is Text’N Hurley who simply wasn’t given any chance last start with the ride given. Only run at this track was massive and expecting much better today. Very keen on this two horse play today.
Melbourne Next Bet
Moonee Valley Race 8 St Jean
I have a big opinion of this horse and the first up run was massive. Expect the horse to sit MUCH closer to the speed today if not right on it and to be able to finish over the top of all the other horses. Very good price in this field today and look for St Jean to make some claims for Cup races.
Melbourne Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 9 Club Command
Very well backed last start and expect to see the money come again today. Getting double figure odds which is just crazy considering the very good run on a leader bias track last start. Rates to win and the price is very good value today.
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 5, 6, 7, 8, 10
Quaddie Leg Two: 4, 5, 6, 9
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 7, 10
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 5, 6, 9, 11, 13
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Hippopus: Had every chance the last two runs and just not going well enough. Can place, not win.
Unchain My Heart: Finished off nicely last start at Caulfield behind Bagman and Lord Durante who are both winning form lines. Getting up to the correct distance this girl wants and should find her best. Only issue is if they are making up ground today and i’m not sold on it.
Crafty Cruiser: Wide the whole trip last start no cover yet still just got there on the line. Very brave win. Loves the track and will run well again, but may find a few too good for mine.
De Fine Lago: Fair run last start at course and distance. Weighted well again today but has to find a good 2 lengths to win this and not sure he is at his best just yet.
Mulaqen: Ran well the last two starts at course and distance but was never a winning chance. Has to find a good 1.5-2 lengths on last run and i’m not sold on that.
Count Encosta: Ran very well two back at Flemington behind Kenjorwood and then got the win last start at course over 2040m. Up in distance only query today for mine and slightly harder class.
Mr Andre: Continues to run well but this is a massive step up in class. Can’t see measuring up and beating all of them home here.
Compound: Trialled very well at the bool. All 3 runs this prep very average. The unknown in the race.
Comments: A tough race to open the day. Count Encosta is up in class here today but proved to be in great form with the win last start. Unchain My Heart looks to be the main danger and will also be hitting the line late.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Count Encosta to win. Smaller bet Unchain My Heart.
Moonee Valley Race 2
Text’N Hurley: Never given a chance with the ride given last start. Back in class here today and up 200m is suitable. Only run at track was a big win at this distance range. Weighted nicely with the claim here.
Reckless Assassin: Last two runs were both solid for good wins. Back to 1600m today but will be ridden out the front again today. Looks to be no pace on and should lead. Undefeated at track, weighted well with claim… very hard to pass.
Acapela: Two back run was solid enough at course behind Jessy Belle. Last start was very average though. Boss goes on and sit out the back.
Aliyana: Good win first up and then just missed start start. Down in the weights here but harder class. Price looks wrong to me.
Rememba Howe: I rememba you Howe and you are a good horse but just keep finding a few too good, especially those in this race. Good weight but not good enough.
Resumethegame: Huge step up in class. Can’t see this!
Spirited Will: Good horse who ran on well last start to return to form. Boss off tells you something. Still has to find lengths.
Averau: Disappointing first up. Will find best over 2000m+
Comments: Very keen to take on Aliyana here.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Two horse play. Sticking strong with Text’N Hurley for 2 units. 1.5 Units Reckless Assassin.
Moonee Valley Race 3
Lotion: Maps to lead from barrier. Very unlucky to miss last start at Sandown by a small head and run two back behind Crafty has a lot of merit. Continues to run well and a key hope here.
Caveka: Did a lot wrong last start at course when very well backed. Barrier is key today and maps nicely. Based on maiden win, have to consider top hope.
Hawking: Maiden only winne rwho ran a nice 2.3L 6th at Flemington last start. U p in class again today but seems to have ability.
Heavy: Snuck the win in a maiden last start at Sandown in fair times but didn’t exactly light it up. Has to improve.
Illustrious Lad: Failed to place in all three runs this prep and up in class here today. Has to find another gear i don’t see.
Breath Of Life: Maiden win was solid in a good time at Seymour last start. Should appreciate the dry track and from barrier 1 is one to watch.
Flamin’ Mogul: Broke the maiden finally last start on a slow track from the back. Maps better today but hard to see measuring up in this grade for mine on a good surface.
The Spitfire: Proved to be a decent 2Yo and seemed to have improved nicely coming into 3YO racing. Got the maiden painlessly first up and has to improve again today to be a chance.
War Point: Slowly away last start and that cost him the race I suspect. Respect him in the market. Maps well enough.
Second Base: Hasn’t even got to first base… still a maiden. Both runs were fine, nothing to get heated over though.
Sophie’s Finale: Poorly weighted today against The Spitfire. Can’t have.
The Mighty Jrod: Finally placed in a maiden last start but not in this grade.
Comments: Caveka, Flamin’ Mogul and Lotion are the three that stick out. Lotion is the value in the race.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Back Caveka to win. Smaller bet Lotion.
Moonee Valley Race 4
Vizhaka: Good win last start at Sandown by a distance. Goes well at track and Rates well in this class.
Post D’France: Not going well enough this prep.
Midnight Glory: Not in this race today. Hasn’t turned it around.
Wrotham Heath: Blocked blocked and blocked for runs last start. Very unlucky should have won by 4 lengths. Down in grade today and weighted nicely again. Barrier 8 should ensure an outside run. Rates to win.
Rowland: Not wet enough.
Vintage Lad: Last two starts runs were very brave. Havne’t been on him either time but suggest he is one of the horses to beat today. In well at the weights after claims, also maps well.
Anudjawun: Won’t be winning at this distance. Needs another 1000m.
Master’s Degree: Very good horse and should be leading today. Showed his best over 2000-2400m deep into last prpe and needs the run today.. but weighted well and J Beriman onboard. Don’t dismiss fully. Better on dead track than good.
Like A Carousel: Better over 2500m with a good win at course and distance over some very average runners. Did run 4th in Group 2 over 3200m last prep. Hard to have today though.
Purple Tiger: Hard to rate the purple tiger on the one run and win. Even previous run was too far off this grade.
Clear Direction: Won 3 in a row so can’t really dismiss her again. Beat home To Be Honest who is a decent horse. Has to find much more today though but every chaance.
Warwarick: Continues to run well without winning. Best with the sting out of the ground. Will run well from the back on the fence.
Relentless: Poorly weighted today up to 54kg. Won’t get it as easy out the front today from barrier 5. Has to improve again.
Comments: Comes clearly back to Wrotham Heath and Vintage Lad on ratings. Hard to pass up Wrotham Heath ridden correctly today.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Wrotham Heath to win.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Lankan Rupee: Trialled well. Last prep beat everything thrown at him. Did fail second up at course over 955m last prep as his only fail. Obviously the one to beat.
It Is Written: Very good win fresh three runs back at course over 1200m to win voer Le Bonsir. Good horse but not this class.
Unpretentious: Very inconsistent and hard to catch. Hard to talk down the 1200m course run 0.3L 3rd to Spirit of Boom. Can run well.
Our Nkwazi: Surprise win two back at course and distance. Ignore last start. Not sure.
Academy Jack: Won’t be winning this one and will struggle to place.
Cauthen: The X Factor… beat Shamus Award and Long John at course over 1200m last prep by 1.5L before then getting injured the next run. Only concern about this talented horse is if the 1000m is just a tad too sharp.
Angelic Light: Ran very well first up after a long time off with injury. Has the ability to improve again today and looks a blowout chance. Did threaten to be really good.
Orujo: Good first up win but then last start ran on well but didn’t find too much off the fast pace. Similar expected today. Not for me.
Eloping: Weighted to win. Can lead this today and if the track is playing to suit, I can really see her stealing this if Lankan is even slightly exposed first up and the rail is golden.
Comments: I couldn’t touch Lankan Rupee at the price, if anything lay is the option. Eloping is the one horse in the race I’d have confidence in winning this at the weights due to mapping from the barrier. Not confident enough to bet.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Lankan Rupee is the on top tip. Can’t go past it. If betting. Consider Eloping to place or Eloping/Lankan Quinella.
Moonee Valley Race 6
London Lolly: Very disappointing first up. Fell out of it quickly and couldn’t have today off that run! Avoid.
Tawteen: Just won first up. Previous prep 900m win was huge.
Lady Trickster: Good win at 2YO then failed to finish prep. Hard to rate first up.
Feels Like Home: Merion a live Derby/Guineas chance and ran to 1.3L of Merion last start. Also ran Go Indy Go to 3.5L. Brings her well in at the weights and should only improve as a MTR filly at 3YO. hard to dismiss.
Kalabek: Good win over Mossbeat first up. Galloped on 2nd up. No excuse first up though apart from too far back? Has ability.
Berimbau: Big maiden win last prep and ran well but didn’t go close behind Sports edition. Darley held onto her so must have some ability. Berry riding.
Pickin’ Time: Been a good go for this girl. Both runs last prep very solid. Big hype.
Not A Happy Camper: Close but just missed in 2YO-G3 class last prep. First up will run well.
Fortiche: Maiden winner in average time first up. Has to improve.
Pittsburgh Flyer: Decent enough maiden win. Has to improve.
Comments: Toughest race of the day. Pickin’ Time has been well backed… Feels Like Home looks the value
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg One: 5, 6, 7, 8, 10
Strategy: Small E/W Feels Like Home
Moonee Valley Race 7
Foreteller: Very short in betting today. Did run home well first up behind Star Rolling but was never a winning chance. Will be as far if not further back today and you don’t want to be there in a race with The Cleaner. I think the price being bet is way unders.
The Offer: Only won once before previously first up and best runs have always been seen at much further than this distance and on the wet. No thanks.
Crackerjack King: Poor in his action first up so just forgive. Measured up over in Europe over the 1800-2000m distances and expect a MUCH better run today.
The Cleaner: Big win last start at course and distance. Previous run unlucky not to win and the run previous to that was as good as you will see also. Every run this prep has been a win or a very close 2nd and he continues to measure up. Once again, expect him to set a hot early tempo, push them along and be there at the finish. Rail may get him home. Cox Plate chance.
Mourinho: Very good win first up on the pace sitting just off the leaders. Looks to have turned a corner and can run very well again today.
Pakal: Frustrating horse to back. At his best, he can win this… but last prep we didn’t see his best with a 3rd and 2nd. Couldn’t have him here even though I remember his Cranbourne Cup win and it was brilliant. Sounds like he needs the run.
Lidari: Will settle forward today like last start but have to find a good 2 lengths on the first up performance. Only run at track was very solid 0.3L 3rd to Fiorente over distance.
Hvasstan: Saved ground on rails last start and ran on very well. Have to improve again in this field today but barrier helps alot.
Star Rolling: Beat Spillway first up who has since come out and won well in easier grade. Controlled pace to suit but won’t have that occur today. Can sit and sprint but prefer out the front. Best runs have been on slower tempos from what i’ve seen.
Gris Caro: Hard to rate this runner in this class.
Foundry: Very poor first up. Have to forgive but can’t have here.
Comments: It all points back to The Cleaner here. You know what you will get and you know how he will run. I think he grades low in-play this time even if he loses, he will be there at the finish and the in-play traders respect him now.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 4, 5, 6, 9
Strategy: The Cleaner to win. Set a lay in the low $1.20-$1.40 range to hedge out.
Moonee Valley Race 8
Our Voodoo Prince: Very very very poor run first up. Either simply didn’t handle the heavy or was just really flat that day over the 1200m.. Certainly isn’t a sprinter.. is a stayer. Did win well enough first up last prep over 1600m but this is a massive step up and weighted poorly for mine.
Ancient King: Didn’t show his best last prep until got well up in the distances. Golden Mile run was ok and so was the next start but i can’t see a winning hope here off those runs.
Mobaco: Given a fairly average run first up but the run was very poor. Couldn’t have.
Henwood: Weighted to win last start at Caulfield, he finally delivered after going around as favourite in two of his previous four runs. Had the race run to suit and did win well. Nicely weighted again today but up in class here has to improve up to the 1600m which he has never won at.
Zanbagh: Certainly looking for further than this. Did run on ok late first up but everything we saw was pointing to not fully wound up just yet.
Caravan Rolls On: Very good horse and won the Sandown Cup last prep very well. Shown his best runs at distances much further than this… but does have a good first up record.
Kapour: Trial looked ok enough. Best shown was over 2000m+ over in Europe.
Fulgur: Very poor last start and I couldn’t explain it. Finding it hard to justify him here.
Under The Eiffel: Not the same UTE that we saw in previous preps.
St Jean: Ran home VERY well first up last start and the extra distance today should suit. Won’t be ridden as far back from a more suitable barrier today and expect to see St Jean show us the cup contender we know exists.
First Course: Will make sure there is a hot enough tempo set today. Can’t see the win if the track is anything but Dead or worse. Even then not sure.
Pyrrolic: Well backed last start into favourite in much easier grade. Did run well but even off 52kg after claims I can’t have in this grade.
Comments: Very keen on St Jean today after the impressive first up run.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 7, 10
Strategy: St Jean to win.
Moonee Valley Race 9
Le Bonsir: Only ever won on Good tracks. Goes close on dead or slow but needs it Good. Doesn’t seem to be any rain so should get a Good 3 at very least. Loves this track and will measure up. Weight may be the only thing but they still seem to all be close enough at the weights to give him every chance.
Zamorar: On pace last start was beaten by better horses but still ran well. Back in this class today and will measure up. May find one too good though.
Atlante: Hype horse who came over from NZ and nearly won on wet surface before putting in three average runs to finish the prep. May simply be better fresh? Looks too short a distance for mine.
Kencella: Very disappointing first up. A good 3 lengths disappointing from what we were expecting on last prep form. Same track conditions and not much better suited today.
Club Command: Was very well backed last start at Caulfield and ran well. Weighted fairly today and from barrier 9 may find a little trouble getting a spot is the only concern. Big chance.
Lucky Hussler: Group 3 winner who showed absolutely nothing since. Weir stable now… HMMMM.
Electric Fusion: Very disappointing return first up. Needs further.
Golden Penny: WFA-LR winner… she isn’t the best first up horse and needs to improve to measure up here again. Weighted ok though.
Lion of Belfort: Huge first prep then failed to measure up last prep with two very average runs. Expect to see his best today but worth noting peak runs were all on dead tracks, not good.
Solsay: One of the braviest horses you will come across. Always runs a ripper and always there at the finish. Beriman off is a huge disadvantage today, but Berry is a patient rider who may extract his best. Weighted nicely and should measure up.
Spirit’s Dance: Won four in a row last prep starting with 3F-70 and working all the way up to a 3F-GP2.. improving every start. Find it difficult to suggest that she will come back at peak fitness based on last prep and may need the run to beat these lot next start.
Trust A Gust: Did alot wrong last start but still found a way to win, just. Big step up in class and maps horribly from the wide barrier. Not for mine here even though horse has a lot of scope for improvement.
Members Joy: Hasn’t won since 2012. First up run was fair but always flashes late like last start and flashes next start not winning. Maps too far back.
Bloomingdale Miss: Stole the win two back and then last start actually impressed me enough to have to consider her chances. Get the feeling a few more progressive at the weights.
Big Buddie: Wasn’t the worst run last start but the Big Boy is out of his class range again here today.
Danish Whiskey: Never touching her ever again. Very poor the last few runs.
Comments: Happy to take on Trust in a Gust from the barrier here today. Club Command impressed me enough last start to have some money on today at the double figure odds on offer.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 5, 6, 9, 11, 13
Strategy: Club Command Each-Way.
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