Welcome to The Profits form guide for Moonee Valley on 5 December 2014. It was good being back at Moonee Valley last Saturday and Kaiser Sun got us into the profit for the weekend. Overall the form worked out well and we hope we can identify a few this evening. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Luck’s A Fortune is obviously the best confidence bet of the night, but i’m not putting a $1.60 favourite up as my best bet. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 8 Holy Heart
Next Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 6 Duble Barrel Daisy
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Are There Any: Had every chance last start at Sandown and was a good run but Magnapal had it won a long way out. Back in class slightly today and up 3.5kg, but looks much better weighted than a few runners. Maps to lead but I can see Holly Holy pressuring out the front.
Khutulun: Maps to get the run of the race on the rail. Will be cuddled and hitting the line strongly. Respect.
Silk and Diamonds: Had her chance last start but was close to 3L off them. Harder class today but still rates well. Can win.
Holly Holy: Decent run last start and only just beaten by Silk And Diamonds. Prefer others.
Capalbio: Showed nothing last start at course and distance. Will obviously be alot closer today to have more chance… but never placed at distance or class. Needs a dead track.
Falamonte: Went around 2nd fav last start in easier company. Three runs this prep showed enough but hard to rate on what we know. Maiden only winner.
Love The Rock: 3L off in 3F-Gp1 but shown very little first two runs this prep imo. Will be peaking today but needs to find a lot more than shown.
Comments: Happy to be on Khutulun here mapping well in a winable race.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Khutulun to win.
Moonee Valley Race 2
FM-Maiden. No thanks
Strategy: Beers
Moonee Valley Race 3
Very low rating race.
Empress O’Reilly is no doubt the best horse in this race, but I really feel the horse to find it’s best, and a win, wants a dead (soft?) track. Maps very well but I couldn’t take lower than $4 today.
Wild Rain the improver back at home here worth watching.
Strategy: Happy to sit this out, but would back Empress O’Reilly (not confidently) at $4.
Moonee Valley Race 4
Very happy and very confident to be backing Luck’s A Fortune here. Yes, gets an apprentice on today, but has 10 lengths to play with here and even with a bad ride should win by 3 lengths against the same horses
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Luck’s A Fortune to win. Add as the banker for the meeting into any bets.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Kuaima: Peak run last prep was strong enough to win here. Beat The Thief on that day at Sandown. I think he is best ridden slightly off the speed but can push forward if needed. First up run was solid enough to be winning this while last start is just an ignore. Bounces back 3rd up.
Classy Jack: Best runs were last prep. Going okay this prep but I couldn’t recommend on current form in this class. Avoid.
Paaratte Pat: Decent horse but first up run was only fair and I need to see another couple of runs before confident backing him.
The Bowler: Never placed from two starts at track but don’t be fooled, he is classier than this lot on form. Went close last prep to winning some good 3YO races. Concern whether the 955m will be too short, but first up I don’t think that will be the case. Ridden out front or midfield, both suit.
Hotel Sierra: Very disappointing run last start when weighted well 2nd up considering how close she went to Sweet Emily the previous race. Even so, have to respect the two runs this prep and her class. Consistent and from barrier 3 will have every chance.
Number One Gun: Hasn’t won since 2012 for a reason. Struggle to see placing here and never won first up.
Sinhala: Best seen over further. No thanks first up here.
Neat Feat: Controlled the race second up and destroyed them. Have to ignore the first up run and rate on last start. Has the ability and has the runs on the board.
Testanova: Had her chances first up at course over 1000m but not strong enough. Will have trained on and be much fitter today, but is she going well enough to beat all these home?
Beach Front: Two preps back she was going well enough that I would back her here at close to $5s. Never won in this class from 6 attempts but goes well at track. Respect but can’t back in this today. Best seen over further.
Pretty Possum: Didn’t impress me first up. Last prep ran some nice races but best seen on wetter tracks.
Comments: I think Hotel Sierra is the one to beat today, but Neat Feat represents the value of the race.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Hotel Sierra to win. Smaller bet Neat Feat.
Moonee Valley Race 6
Five key runners here I want to look at.
Start with Inishowen. Last prep measured up in 3YOF company at Caulfield and then in lesser company similar to this. Best seen over further but win wouldn’t shock.
Baremin is a large price today. Just ignore last start and rate on two back… but best seen on wetter.
Dasilva is the key value of the race. The run three back at course over 1000m was huge and can’t be ignored. Back to that class today and back to 1200m, the horse is very hit and miss.
Nicamorae back in class last start improved significantly and just missed. Three back ran 1.5L 4th to Dasilva but probably should have finished closer. Meets 0.5kg better today from a better barrier.
Duble Barrel Daisy is the horse to beat here. Won two from three this prep and has been well placed. Found one too good last start but still ran well. Maps well here and weighted nicely.
Comments: Hard to pass up Duble Barrel Daisy at the price while Dasilva is way overs if puts it all together today.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Duble Barrel Daisy to win. Smaller bet Dasilva.
Moonee Valley Race 7
Not a massive fan of this race today. Seul Spirit is the horse that stands out on form behind Tashbeeh and the run was solid. Not confident up to this distance though.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Sitting this out, but if betting Seul Spirit E/W
Moonee Valley Race 8
This is a wide open race to finish the day, but the best value on the card stands out here for mine.
Holy Heart has been peaking the last three runs we have seen him going around and that should continue today. Two back close 2nd to General Groove proved to be solid form while going back last start which was unexpected, he was able to overcome the whole field. Oozes class this runner and i’m very happy to be backing him today. Would be down to $5.50/$2.10 ($8.50/$3.25 currently).
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Holy Heart E/W
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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