Welcome to The Profits form guide for Moonee Valley on 3 October 2014. Moonee Valley and last weekend went very much to plan. If only Dissident hadn’t layed in when he had the race won and shot to pieces, but that is racing and you can’t get all the luck! Two nicely priced Best Bets got up last weekend and we want to continue that trend tonight. I won’t be as active as normal on twitter due to a birthday commitment, but you certainly know I will still be around and watching. Stay tuned for tomorrow as we may have one of our most confident large odds bets all year. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 8 Son Senoras
Won first up with ease and the margin doesn’t actually measure how good the win actually was with the horse not being ridden out the final 100m. Repeat of that run wins this race by at least a length today. Huge opinion of horse.
Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 7 Let’s Be A Star
Huge overs today and I have the horse rated on top in the race to win. The pace will be on and we will be getting back in the run, but finishing off strong. Key form lines of beating Spinderbella who won next start very well at Caulfield is worth following and i’m happy at the prices offered.
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 6, 8
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 4, 5, 9, 14
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 5, 9
Quaddie Leg Four: 4, 6, 8
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 4
No buggering around in this race today. Angelology is a city winner who has been trained on this prep for the extra distance he gets today 59.5kg in this class looks very appropriate and he hasn’t missed a place either attempt over a similar distance. Has the fitness and class edge.
Comments: Very happy to be on Angelology to place here.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Angelology to place.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Magnus Reign: Super horse who measured up in Listed company last prep but been off a long time, 58kg but goes well first up. Surely goes back not forward.
Fav Fevola: Good track looks to be onboard for him today. Loves this distance and this distance saw his last win off a similar weight. Have to be at his best (two back run) to win from barrier. Can win.
Signal Fire: Darwin form hardly ever measures up back in class in Melbourne. Weighted off 5.5kg today is nice, but I couldn’t touch here.
Tackleberry: Last prep form is impossible to argue against. Over 1200m ran 2nd x3 to Solsay, Mandla and Mandla before lame at course at favourite. 57kg but never won first up and best runs seen on dead… has the ability and will struggle to find right spot in run today.. also too short?
Your Excellency: First two runs this prep were average at best. 54.5kg today is nice but alot of speed and won’t get an easy spot in running.
Consorting: Will be back in running today but speed should be on and will have his chance to come over the top of them. 53kg looks a nice weight but has to find much more compared to first up run… which he can.
Lateva: Not the best first up form. Goes well over this distance and looks a decent type of horse. Never won on Good track.
The Bounty Queen: Beat Girl Guide last run of last prep which has to be considered very strong form. Simply ran it too fast out front last start at Wang and is off 53kg today… has to be considered a huge chance from the barrier.
Oh George: Showed the ability to be a decent horse last prep. First up and huge step up in class… happy to take on first up from barrier.
Sassy Tycoon: A very close second last start in BM-64 grade over 1000m. Has been running well but this surely too hard a task.
Harare: Maiden winner first up and not by much. Not for me.
Inspector: Won well enough on slow first up in Bm64 grade… but this is way out of his league.
Comments: Tough race. Lots of chances. Going with the value in race.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 6, 8
Strategy: Fab Fevola on top. Consorting smaller bet.
Moonee Valley Race 6
Aggregator: Needs much further than this but off 57kg and on a track he enjoys, he is a sneaky chance to run all of these runners down at his best.
Red Bomber: Won two in a row and won them well. Step up in class no doubt back to city but has the ability.
By The Grace: Disappointing last start run and has to improve 2 lengths today. Has the ability to do so up in distance.
Metaphorical: Fairly average run first up. Back in class and down to 55kg after claims, from barrier 4 she maps to have every chance today and looks a top pick here.
Oltre Finito: Runs behind Tristrams Sun are all good form lines. Has to be respected but has to find 2 lengths. Been off a month.
Comments: Red Bomber deserves to be a slight favourite here but not this short. Metaphorical is the value runner in the race and worth a bit of backing.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 4, 5, 9, 14
Strategy: Metaphorical to win.
Moonee Valley Race 7
Let’s Be A Star: Beat Spinderbella and the rest of the field last start at Mornington. Spinderbella won very well last start at Caulfield in harder company than this as well so the form is stacking up. Goes very well at this distance and from 57kg with Beriman onboard, it’s hard to ignore her at the price here.
Court Patroal: Import who showed nothing first prep. Second prep starts now and have to respect previous formlines. Goes well on Good and just have to respect here and price looks overs.
Amarachi: Poor run first up in much harder company. Hasn’t won since mid 2013 in easier company than this and has been running well in similar previous prep but i think the price is way unders today.
In Masquerade: 0.2L 2nd in 3F-LR, 1L 2nd in 3F-GP3 and 1.3L 5th in 3F-GP1 last prep. Firs tup run was very average but will have trained on. Looks to need the run again for mine to find best.
Tully Costa: Another horse in this way over the correct odds. Finished last prep with a very good run 5th in harder company oer distance. Maps well also and won in Bm-70 over distance. Goes well first up also.
Distant Dreams: Had every chance last start at Mornington and got ran home. Never won on Good tracks. Weighted nicely today but barrier hurts to get a strong spot in run.
Lonhtime: Every chance last two starts but found a few too good. 52kg so has to be respected on class.
Melaleuca: Had race run to suit last start when won fairly well. Weighted poorly here.
Prie Dieu running well all prep and finally got the win. Much harder today and weighted poorly.
Comments: Open race on paper with 5 key chances. Can’t pass up Let’s Be A Star here at the price.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 5, 9
Strategy: Let’s Be A Star to win.
Moonee Valley Race 8
Chelsea Hotel: Shown best over slightly further. On form goes well enough first up but in this class off this weight has to find much more and barrier will be hard to get a good enough run to win on previous times.
Valrouz: Like this horse and it always enjoys this track. Has won 2 and placed 2 from 5 runs. Never won first up an issue and shown best runs over further distances than this. Needs to have improved to win this first up.
What a Snitz: Likes this distance unlike a few in the race. Will push for the front and won’t have an easy time about it. 60kg looks hard to carry around here and may be her reason for losing.
A Littlebitofclass: Very classy runner. 4.3L and 3.3L wins to start last prep and times were sound. Found a few too good the next two starts. Shown her best runs fresh previously and expect to see the same today. Big chance.
Nicamorae: Very good win down the straight at Flemington second up last start and then failed next two runs. Must have trained on to win this or refind her best form. Has the ability to do so.
Simply Ming: Good enough win last start at Geelong but this will be far too classy a field today at MV.
Son Senoras: Measured up first up and won VERY well. Wasn’t even pushed out and the win was better than times suggest. Huge chance and barrier 1 key.
Dasilva: Won first up run of last prep. Continued to improve throughout prep but didn’t get to this level of race. Weight a little too high for mine here.
Not a Llama: Favourite and done over last two runs of last prep. Didn’t measure up tot his grade but has to be respected.
Settlers Road: Every chance first up and poor. No thanks.
Sebring Lane: Very green last prep in 2Yo class. Only won a maiden but has to be respected on class.
Comments: Son Senoras the bet of the day.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Four: 4, 6, 8
Strategy: Son Senoras to win.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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