Welcome to The Profits form guide for Moonee Valle on 29 November 2014. Christmas is just around the corner and that means the fields should be starting to get a little less classy which should give us a bit of an edge, but it may be another week or two to fully get these trends back around. Last weekend was just okay with Holy Cow getting us slightly ahead on Friday night and Tashbeeh saving our Saturday and getting the Best Bets into profit (only just) for the day with Beauty’s Beast photoed out of 3rd as the best E/W of the day. No mid-week form was produced this week due to no real confidence apart from one play that was posted on twitter with a close 2nd at $34/$7. It won’t be recorded as a play on our records. A tough card all things considered on offer today at MV and I wouldn’t be betting into more than 4 of the races on the card today. Get the feeling the Quaddie will pay a decent divvy today also. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 5 Calming Influence
The best horses can handle holding this type of weight against other runners and based on form and times, Calming Influence is the best horse in this race today. Stable seem very confident with this returning run today and best of all, jockey will get the front on the horse and be able to rate the run to suit the horse which is a racing style you can’t put a price on at MV. Wouldn’t be betting a cent less than $2.50 here.
Next Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 7 Kaiser Sun
A horse who captured our attention last prep and went around with our money a fair few successful runs. Came back last start at MV over the 955m off a injury break. They bet close to $2.50 and that was simply too short for the distance with so many questions. With fitness on our side today, the price, closer to $4.80 today, represents value for a runner of this quality. Would be willing to bet down to $3.60. Also be having some money on The Thief in the race and consider any price down to $7.5 value for the runner.
Best Each-Way Bet
Moonee Valley Race 9 Clang and Bang
Save the best for last? The form lines around this form match up very well compared to the weight allocated if you look at the form around a few runners in this race matched with a few who have gone against Clang and Bang this prep. Maps very well and goes well at course and distance also.
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 7, 9
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 5, 9, 10
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 10
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 6, 7, 10, 11
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Artie’s Party: Unplaced in a trial and wasn’t very impressive. Need to see a run.
Bantam: Led them up down the Flemington straight first up when very well backed and weakened out of it. Not suited by wind and should show much more today.
Cheetah Ridge: Market is only guide. Not been well backed.
Palace Tycoon: Very strong trial winner and has been very well backed. Market is the guide and will go close.
Miss Gidget: Very strong run 2nd to Thurlow at Sandown from start to finish. Will jump and push forward and be very hard to run down based on times.
Miss Idyllic: Very good horse who has put in two strong runs without winning last two races. Has to improve again but has the ability.
Andy Jay: Not been backed at all and market only guide.
Tiffany Cash Man: Not liked at all in the early markets, keep an eye out for a late go.
Zaaresque: I know the stable has an opinion of the horse and won a trial soundly. Rick never sends horses to race unless he thinks they are ready and from barrier 1 should be suited by the tight track. Could be value because markets never respect yards horses.
Comments: Rail in the true, expect to want to be on speed here. Miss Gidget showed me she had everything needed to win today and I like Williams onboard from this barrier if they do push forward. Bantam has to be respected and so does Miss Idyllic. Zaaresque is the value.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Miss Gidget to win.
Moonee Valley Race 2
Eclair Choice: Strong form lines continuing to run well without winning. Has a 2nd to Lord Aspen on record. Will lob 1/1 from barrier 3 if possible. Will have every chance if good enough.
Durendal: Interesting runner in first prep still. Won well maiden three back and then two back run showed nothing at Flemington. Much better in much easier company when led and run down late.. has to improve again though on times.
Written Dash: Just won her maiden two back and then last start at Sandown won very well off a slow tempo. Has to improve again but looks better than birds of tokyo.
Birds of Tokyo: Well beaten last start when had every chance at Sandown off a slow tempo. Down to 51kg but has to improve.
Hell on Earth: Poor barrier trial. Hard to rate.
Comments: Eclair Choice the logical pick here on form and prices available.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Eclair Choice to win.
Moonee Valley Race 3
Feels Like Home: Hasn’t run within 3.5L all prep, but can be ridden cold like last start and stable obviously expecting her to hit form by persisting with racing.
Karratha Coast: Didn’t beat much in maiden at Kilmore last start and went around kav tells you enough. Led and won.. time wasn’t very impressive.
Singularity: Strong run 2nd in maiden company first up and then form has dipped since. Couldn’t be overly confident backing her, but Oliver takes the ride again for a reason?
Inferential: Last three runs in similar grades hasn’t been able to run a place or even close. Very hard to rate at the weight.
Mumbai Rock: Quick backup from an average at best run at Sandown. Shown nothing so hard to rate here.
Propelled: Two runs and couldn’t get within 2.5L of them. Magnus filly and has a bit of maturing to do still. Every chance last start. No thanks.
Very Scary: Didn’t show a lot in maiden class last start. Up in distance suitable for breeding though so don’t dismiss.
Comments: This really is a rubbish race which is described by the fact that Feels Like Home is the favourite. I couldn’t bet with any confidence here unless betting for value which is the least liked runner in the race Very Scary.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Very Scary E/W
Moonee Valley Race 4
London Stripe: Good surprise winner three back at Caulfield. Last two runs have been respectable without impressing. Similar weight at Arctic Song the last time they met. Need a lot of luck from position expected in running.
Taiyoo: Did run wide during the race last start but was still poor… much better than two back run but still didn’t show much. Happy to avoid here at weight.
Kingdom of Dreams: Two runs for tow wins this prep and ran some very solid races last prep with a good 2nd at course and distance in 3YO class to finish it all off. Has the ability to improve again today and the start to finish win last start at Bendigo was impressive on the time run. Should run better with a sit as well. Barrier only issue.
Arctic Song: Maps to go forward today from barrier 10 today. Continues to find one horse too good it seems but never disgraced that’s for sure. Signs of coming to end of prep last start at Flemington or just better suited to shorter straights on two and three back runs? Respect.
Darbadar: French 3YO winner over 2400m and 0.5L 4th over 3000m in GP2 class. Is 1600m too short?? I think so. Happy to bet around.
New York: Not been the worst runs this prep and up to 1600m today suits.. but long time between drinks. Not for mine and especially on a good surface.
Tommy Two: Never won from 16 starts on Good track and massive step up in class. No thanks needs further.
Moscow Pearl: Rates and weighted very well today to win. Two and three back runs behind form horses and last start went very close. Barrier the issue.
Mightiest: Hasn’t shown any signs of form since March. First up run had merit but not enough to suggest a win here and new jockey suggests that.
Kinesthetic: Very strong run last start at Kyneton when beating home Godspiel who backed up that form during the week with a close 2nd at Bendigo. Weighted well here and respect from barrier 3 getting every chance up to 1600m.
Appoint: Every chance last start and not good enough. Has to improve on what we have seen this prep but did handle the track on only run here is a positive. Needs to regain form or have a spell. 51kg.
Kerthos: Looked a progressive horse but fell away last prep. Went around $2.80 fav first up and poor from the back. 51kg but really on that run can we trust?
Comments: Respect the ability of London Stripe and Arctic Song but taking them both on today.. the same with Taiyoo. Also taking on Darbadar today at the distance. Kingdom of Dreams looks very progressive and the time run last start at Bendigo was impressive and hard to ignore. Moscow Pearl and Kinesthetic look the two worse following going forward as the value of the race.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Kingdom of Dreams to win. Smaller bet on Kinesthetic
Moonee Valley Race 5
Calming Influence: Waller runner who showed some very impressive sectionals from out the front on Good tracks up in Sydney. Failed during the Autumn carnival but may be due to not coming up and also the wet tracks. Have to forgive back in this class today that looks very winable even with the 60kg if back to her best.
Counted: Improved significantly last start in similar grade back on a dead surface which for mine is the key. Horse loves the sting out more than a very firm track like we saw at Flemington. Race 5, I don’t expect to see anything but a hard track and i’m happy to bet around at the price from racing style.
Klishina: Continued to run well and progress last prep. Won 3 of last 5 races including a sprint at this track (slowish time). 53kg and runs well first up, best seen with sting out though.
Lonhruge: Never placed on anything but slow or heavy is a massive concern and wanting further.
Resumethegame: Country runner who is massively up in class here and poorly weighted. No for mine.
Sensational Report: Surprise run 2nd last start at course and distance on a good surface. Handles a good surface but never won on it for an obvious reason.. best shown on dead. Best also shown off a medium tempo and won’t get that here.
Catch that Cat: Fair win first up. Has won in the past at this track off a low weight. Symons keeps the ride and maps to sit just off the favourite. Has the ability and has to be respected.
Cobblestones: Every chance last start at Bendigo when run down late by The Travelling Man. Down 6.5kg today though up in class and meets Moparee 1kg better off for a 0.3L win two back. Shown best on sting out of ground.
Moparee: Proved ot be a good horse last prep with strong 3YO runs. First up was a decent run and unlucky last start when blocked for runs. Respect.
Comments: Taking on Counted at the price and same with Moparee. I think the form around Cobblestones isn’t good enough to beat all these either without improvement. Catch The Cat looks the value runner in the race on the first up run while Calming Influence looks to have group potential compared to the rest of these in the race… weight is the issue but maps to get the rail, lead at whatever pace winks wants to set and have every chance to win.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Calming Influence to win.
Moonee Valley Race 6
She’s Clean: Top weight of 59kg after claim which was required today with good apprentice onboard. Her last two runs weren’t as bad as they appear on paper and well back in class today. Expect her to get further back today which is where she settles better and that will be the key to victory today. Looks over the odds based on potential.
Stella Lante: Won well second up not beating much at Adelaide. Probably see her best over this distance today rather than closer to the 2000m. Maps well from barrier and never missed a place at track from 4 attempts… won twice in class previously.
Coronation Shallan: Had her chance last start at Ararat and let a number past her. Previous two runs were also solid but not good enough. Up to 1500m could do the trick… has won previously at track… will get a cuddle from barrier 1.
Koe: Ignore last start and rate on two previous runs behind Mannopoly who measured up after those runs in city class. Respect at weights.
Chiquada: Maps very well today to have every chance. Best ridden with a lead IMO and with 51kg today they will have every chance to lead it all the way from barrier 2. Ran Sweet Idea to 2.8L last start at Caulfield.
Special Miss: Looked a good type when winning at Kilmore 2nd up last prep but then didn’t produce much after that. Best seen on Good tracks and weighted nicely, but i’d want to see the run today.
SpellRocker: Not shown her best for a long time now. Showed nothing last prep and first up run didn’t produce much. Not for mine.
Eruption: False favourite today on my ratings. Decent horse but has gone from maidens to lose two BM-64s and then progress to win some just okay FMB-64 and 70r aces. 54kg today isn’t exactly weighted well. Trainer influence that is all.
Shake It Shakira: Won two in a row but back to dry tracks and much harder.
Blue Ash: Couldn’t win R-58s last three runs.
Comments: Chiquada could be very hard to pass with 51kg today. She’s Clean is the value of the race, price is well overs.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg 1: 1, 2, 5, 7, 9
Strategy: Two horse play here. Equal bets on Chiquada and She’s Clean.
Moonee Valley Race 7
Ready to Rip: Very good horse but not won since March 2013. Top weight even with claim a little harsh first up here. Happy to bet around.
It Is Written: Continues to frustrate by running well without winning. Down to 56.5kg today but has to find much more today to win. Price probably where he should be.
Let’s Rock’N’Roll: Finally got a win last start at track over the 955m distance. Loves a good track and just beat a bunch of tryers not at their best. This is much harder today back to the 1000m where he hasn’t been able to finish them off recently. Happy to bet around here at the price being bet.
Mr Make Believe: Last prep showed only glimpse of form on a dead track and nothing since. Not suited by track condition IMO but Oliver takes ride an interesting move?
The Thief: The most interesting runner of the race. Horse has huge potential and 53kg today after claims from barrier 1. Maps to sit about midfield. Very good wins last start at Flemington and then a strong 2nd to Vain Queen down the straight. Has raw ability that a lot of these lack.
Pocket Rockets: Way down in weight from the Gundagui run first up. Best seen on wetter tracks and not shown best for over a year.
Canali: Not shown us anything close to winning form this prep. Happy to avoid. .
Consorting: Continues to run well in this grade or similar without getting the chocolates. Has the ability to run well again but probably find another too good again.
General Jackson: Every chance to win last three runs at track and similar distances but just not good enough. Not exactly well weighted either today to get over it.
Kaiser Sun: Coming off an injury I thought the first up run was solid all things considered. Up to 1000m will suit more today as well but should have a lot more fitness on his side. His best has been seen on wetter tracks in the past though IMO.
Straturbo: Only one win last prep and it was only fair at best. Much harder here. Hard to have at weights.
Falcent: Looked a very good horse at 3YO including a Flemington straight win. Been off a long time but 51kg… market guides you.
Comments: Taking on Let’s Rock’N’Roll at the price today and same with Consorting. Kaiser Sun 2nd up represents value at the price while The Thief is the value of the race on potential.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 5, 9, 10
Strategy: Kaiser Sun to win. Smaller bet The Thief.
Moonee Valley Race 8
Tried and Tired: Hard horse to catch. Does best work later into preps than first up and over further… although does go okay at distance. Barrier helps and best shown on wetter ground imo though. Needs the run at weights.
Solsay: I think he is a good chance today but am concerned he will be left with 61kg with no jockey booking and every apprentice already at the meeting engaged here. Barrier 2 maps well but without Beriman who knows the horse so well, any other jock won’t get the best out of him. Found a place 7 of 8 runs at track (other run was 4th in listed grade). Back to 1200m ideal though here.
Don’t Get Excited: Eye-catching run last start at Sandown doing his best work late in wfa-G3 class. 58.5kg today back to BM-90 and back to 1200m… looks very much suited here and weighted very well. Maps well also.
Thermal Current: Just too far back last start at Flemington and an obvious ignore job… didn’t handle the straight, no surprise. Two back run out the front in Group 3 company ran a close 5th to Miracles of Life and Bel Sprinter. Weighted nicely here but has to improve i’d suggest.
Goldstone: Strong enough second up run and improved run really. Last prep ran 1.3L 3rd to terravista which isn’t the worst form line to consider. Loves a Good track and finds it hard to miss a place on them. Trainer is keen.
Grane: Up in class again last start and found a few too good. Weighted nicely up in class again today but a bit too far a step for mine.
Magnus Reign: Runs well at this track but since stable change hasn’t shown expected turn of foot imo. No thanks.
Stereosonic: Just snuck home in much easier class for a win last start. Step up again but has ability.
Zlatan: Just here for the run. Main game is longer distances.
Bishops Castle: Good horse who was sent up to Darwin and got two solid wins. First up run was very good 0.2L 3rd to Holy Heart when led all the way with 60.5kg. Down to the minimum 51kg today and from barrier 3 will be pushing for the lead again. If the rail is super, could be very very very hard to get past.
Daybreak: Beriman jumps off Solsay to ride Daybreak. Won 3 from 5 first up but horrible record on good surfaces. I’d rather be on Solsay but good to make a point about getting kicked off for senior riders who don’t know a horse as well as you do.
Lonrockstar: Form around beating Risen From Doubt first up decent but had every chance last start and not good enough behind Steosonic. Was beaten last prep by Big Buddie if that tells you the level this guy is.
Comments: Bishop’s Castle shouldn’t have too much trouble getting the lead today and is a massive chance t lead start to finish at the weights. Don’t Get Excited is the X factor horse here.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 10
Strategy: Don’t Get Excited to win. Smaller bet Bishops Castle.
Moonee Valley Race 9
Tanby: Love the bloke but his best is past him. Williams sold him at the right time.
Commanding Time: Good horse but best kept to country grade cups to find his right grading. Been found out in similar class races recently. Massiyn has his number.
Massiyn: Barrier 1 today and will have every chance here. Wasn’t run during the carnival after the Bendigo run and kept fresh for this it seems or a similar race. Continues to improve and based on last start run should run well in this grade. Best runs on record seen on good tracks.
Mobaco: Shown nothing all prep. Can’t have here.
Alcohol: Very impressive late burst at Flemington to run 3rd over 1600m. Up to 2040m may see a bit of that dash go? Looks short enough for a horse who will be very far back at a course that doesn’t allow anything but the best to win from there.
Extra Zero: He continues to impress and run well without winning. Poorly weighted against Massiyn though for three back run is a massive issue.
Tango’s Daughter: Been winding up all prep and they continue to ride her forward. May just get the lead or sit just off it today and based on the Flemington run is showing enough to suggest she can win. Looks value in the race.
The Inventor: Ran home well enough last start but not good enough on my ratings to win this on two runs this prep in Vic.
Clang and Bang: Eye-catching run at Flemington last start when held up at a critical stage and still running on for 2nd. Down to 53.5kg today suitable and has won 2 from 4 at track. Need to improve again but loves track and distance.
Spinderbella: Scratched last Saturday from the cup and she wouldn’t have been winning it either way the way it was run. Barrier 16 a horrid draw. Happy to take her on personally from the gate at this track against all these.
Constant Force: Not good enough on either run this prep or last prep.
Magnapal: Impressive win last start at Sandown… big improvement from two back run at Flemington. Needs ot improve again though in this grade.
Shenzhou Steeds: Poorly weighted against Clang and Bang today on last start run… but weighted okay on two back run against Massiyn and others. Always runs solidly.
Schocklemohle: Best run all prep was course and distance 2nd to Pheidon. Last start had merit but still not anywhere near as good. Happy to bet against today.
Comments: Clang and Bang is weighted to win today as long as Coffey gets him in a good spot. Tango’s Daughter looks the main danger if runs up to form.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 6, 7, 10, 11
Strategy: Backing Clang and Bang E/W. Smaller bet Tango’s Daughter to win.
Please Note:
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