Welcome to The Profits form guide for Moonee Valley. Last week at Flemington nothing went right. Our bankroll and profit for the year took a fair whack but thankfully are still well in profit. Moonee Valley is seen as our home track and is our more profitable track of the past few years so hopefully we can turn results around. Confidence levels are actually much higher today than they were for Saturday, but i won’t be playing in races if I don’t get the right odds. How amazing would it be for racing if The Cleaner could put in a big win today of at least 2 lengths and show all the haters that he should be considered a serious cox plate chance. I’ll be there with my mop cheering him home at the top of my lungs. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 3 Solsay
This is a horse i’ve been following for a long time and while it has never featured in our bets for a while now, I was really impressed the past two runs and feel the form lines are the way to play in this race. Trust In A Gust, Atlante and Under The Louvre form are all extremely solid in a race like this and will be the benchmark. Weighted so well with the Beriman claim and the barrier is IDEAL. Rates to win.
Next Bet
Moonee Valley Race 2 Commanding Jewel
1kg better off against Dear Demi today and is heading towards a Cox Plate so you would expect improvement here. I’m not so sure we saw the best in her off such a weak tempo and it should be more solid today which will be to her liking. Also gains 0.5kg on Solicit which is important for mine. Will handle the track and condition today.
Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 7 MoonOverManhattan
Went up at $26 and is into $21 now. Clearly the value of the race and the value of the day, the horse just stuck on from just off the leaders back last start at Flemington and almost seemed to get to the front and then get lost if i’m to be honest. As long as Newitt gets the horse going a little before the start of the turn I think you we will be in a winning position coming into the straight and a realistic winning chance. Maps to win.
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 5, 8, 13
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 6, 7, 9, 12
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Deiheros: Continues to run well and always runs a solid race. Last start run had every chance but very disappointing. Back to 1200m the key to his chances here.. but only win this prep was a crawl out front. Not for me.
Easy Drama: Very good 2YO win at Flemington and then continued on and ran well enough. Looks the classiest horse here and price looks overs.
Geromayo: First up run couldn’t win a maiden and while in 2013 did run 2nd to Unencumbered, I can’t see the tools to win this.
Nicoscene: Surprise winner in class to finish last prep. Could be anything.
Tudor: Two back win was largely influenced by a slow tempo. Last start didn’t measure up is a concern.
Belflyer: Won quite well last start with the 60kg in much easier company at Geelong off a hot tempo. Looks a good type and does need to improve to measure up.
Kizz’s Munro: Lazy 4 length win first up as a $1.3 fav. Have to respect
White Hunter: 3Y-MDN 2nd by 0.1L last start. Hard to see him winning
Comments: Happy to go with the value.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Easy Drama E/W
Moonee Valley Race 2
Dear Demi: Ran very well last start behind Commanding Jewel and just missed. 1kg worse off at the weights than CJ is and never run at the track a concern. Best runs found on Good.
Commanding Jewel: Meets Dear Demi 1kg better off at the weights today and up in distance heading towards the Cox Plate. Won previously at the track and handles any condition of track. Maps a little awkwardly but you do expect her to get the correct position in running.
Epingle: Never won first up and never won at track. Isn’t the worst seen at this distance but certainly needs further to find best.
Rememba Howe: Surprise start to finish winner last start. Way up in grade here and poorly weighted.
Espirit Rossa: Doesn’t handle a Good track. Best found on Dead or worse. Rain should help. This is much harder than she has found her best runs in.
Solicit: Won both runs second up the last two preps. Best runs shown on wetter surfaces imo. Distance today should be suitable and as long as they ride her correctly today, expect her to be a big improver out the front.
Comments: The odds are correct in this race in suggesting there are only three hopes. Commanding Jewel is so well weighted that it is ridiculous. The $1.55 put up by the bookies today was a joke and unders. The $1.75 being bet at the time of writing this article is the correct price required to play here, but that has disappeared since I wrote this and got on myself. I think you will probably be able to get these odds tomorrow on Betfair or similar. $1.70 is a sit and watch.. that is how fine the line is.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Commanding Jewel to win.
Moonee Valley Race 3
Vatican: Showed absolutely nothing last prep. Goes well first up but has to find LENGTHS at the weight today on last prep runs.
Canali: Disappointed last prep and is getting older now. Won’t be finding his best today and needs to to measure up first up for mine. Slight chance.
Angels Beach: Sat in the perfect position and just missed first up. How strong is the form? Angelic Light improves significantly 2nd up so i’m not sure how well that will frank this form. Iconic was VERY poor last weekend over in Adelaide getting well beaten as well. At the price, I’m happy to saver at best.
Let’s Rock’N’Roll: Goes well enough first up. Won last two runs before spell. Only run at course and distance two preps back was 1L 3rd to Go The Knuckle and Zedi Knight. Rates well enough but has to be fit enough to be winning against these.
Solsay: Ran well enough first up.. 2nd up was 0.2L behind Trust in a Gust and 0.1L infront of Under The Louvre and then last start up in class poorly weighted 1.5L 4th to Atlante and Trust in a Gust. THIS is the form I want to be following in this race. Weighted so well with the Beriman claim and the barrier is IDEAL. Rates to win.
General Jackson: First two runs this prep have been horrible. Won at course and distance last prep. Oliver not on though Roddy on. Not sure.
Comments: Very keen on Solsay here. Will need a good ride from Beriman from the barrier and need a bit of luck to get the run at the right time, but if all goes to plan, Solsay will be winning this. I have to saver Angels Beach who looks the main threat.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Solsay to win. Saver bet Angels Beach
Moonee Valley Race 4
Buffering: 4 runs last prep on all surfaces for 0 wins. Got close but not good enough and found best late in prep. I think the best days of the Buff are behind him and i’m willing to take him on here. I’d prefer the Dane.
Lankan Rupee: Every right to lose first up and always is most exposed early in preps. Should be harder and fitter today… less tempo in this race to compete with, will get the rail, 1200m suits. Hard to beat.
Rebel Dane: Had his chance first up behind Sweet Idea which has proven to be a decent form line. I can’t fault his chances and looks value in the race. I feel like i’m being sucked in again today if I back him after not winning in 7 runs.
Unpretentious: Average enough run first up. Has the ability to run a nice race but this grade? Can’t see it off first up run.
Angelic Light: The horse loved how last start Eloping set the pace out front and exposed Lankan Rupee. I think she has to improve onwards again to win. Will have her chance.
Comments: Can’t bet on anything but Lankan Rupee. Can bet $1.60 but nothing shorter, just like with Commanding Jewel, this was available and is now gone.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Lankan Rupee to win.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Eloping: Loved the run first up. Stuck to the line fine. Weighted to win today and looks a step up from this group.
Silversands: Ran just okay first up but didn’t exactly impress. Only win at track was a win at 2. Has the ability.
Tawteen: Led a slowly run race on a day when there was a leader bias, skipped clear and won well. Don’t discount that run though. Has the ability to win.
Sunset Rock: Two runs this prep and shown nothing. Couldn’t touch here.
Pienkna: Didn’t show the sprint required first run down here on the straight track. Could just be wanting a corner though and the times run over the 1000m three runs back were fairly good. Has ability.. barrier sucks.
Loved Up: Run well enough first up in an average race from the back. Need luck to place here.
Top Dolly: Ridden upside down first up and that looked a very average ride tactically. Has to be considered a chance today and will be ridden further back today.
Tahni Dancer: Maiden winner last start and ran well two back behind Afleet Spirit without impressing alot. Can improve and be competitive.
Cristalina Lago: BM-70 2nd first up behind Zeletto and beat home Rough Justice who came out and won last week in city. Ran well enough. Can run well.
Royal Trieste: Showed nothing first up on a nothing ride. Looked a decent horse first prep.
Comments: There are a few runners who could improve onwards today but it’s hard to ignore Eloping who ran a huge Group 2 third behind Angelic Light and Lankan Rupee.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3
Strategy: Eloping to win.
Moonee Valley Race 6
The Cleaner: HE’S GOING TO THE COX PLATE! What a brave win last start. Sensational! Up to the 2040 trip is the test today. I think his perfect distance has been proven to be 1600 to 1800 and the 2040 will be the stretch. He is certainly proven at the distance, but can he measure up in group company here at the distance at the weights provided? It all comes down to the ride provided. There won’t be a battle for the speed today i’d expect and he should have no issues crossing them. For mine, it comes down to how bad a run key threats like Mourinho get. The barriers the key threats are drawn seem to give them runs that are a length or so below their previous runs and at the weights, The Cleaner needs these advantages. Expect another brave, huge run, he will be there at the finish.
Precedence: His first up run which was simply to get a bit of fitness into the legs was actually very average. His second up record is decent but his best runs generally come later into preps.. He will certainly be suited by the pace of the race.
Sangster: Hasn’t won since 2013 over 3200m, but that was a Group 1. Did run a 1.8L 6th to Fiorente over 1600m last prep. Two runs this prep though were very much rubbish and a concern.. Wants further.
Mr O’Ceirin: You know i’m biased. I love him, but he won’t really be suited by the tempo and pace today at the weights. Also may be too dry? Others preferred.
Mourinho: Flying at the moment. Down 2.5kg and is weighted to go very close… but barrier 12 today is a massive concern. Lots of early speed inside of him and I can see him getting shuffled a little further back than he wants to be. Certain quaddie inclusion.
Ancient King: Very poor first up run didn’t make much ground at all. Being set for Much further.
Marksmanship: Got found out in a much better grade and dryer track last two starts. Happy to avoid here.
Big Memory: 0.1L 2nd to Brambles last start over an unsuitable distance. The 2040m will suit much more today, but i’m uncertain whether he will be suited by the extra tempo here.. this is a tough tempo to keep up with. He will be in the right spot.
Hvasstan: Didn’t appreciate the tempo clearly last start at MV on a good track. Will have to battle similar today. Not for mine.
Lord Durante: Found out in much harder class again last start but Rugged Cross and Bagman have won since who are from previous races. Not for me here today with the tempo but win wouldn’t exactly shock.
Signoff: Ran well enough first up but was rather disappointing if i’m honest. Distance increase and weight suit but needs to find much more.
Ominous: Very disappointing last two runs. Wanting much further and a few more runs.
Comments: Two key chances for me here. The Cleaner will be there at the finish and is my top pick again here. I can’t be against him, he will wear them down. Big Memory is the chance to run over the top of him toda for mine. Weighted so well and a tough horse who ran very well first up, im happy to play around these two.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 5, 8, 13
Strategy: The Cleaner to win. Saver Big Memory.
Moonee Valley Race 7
Almalad: Showed his best runs over the 1600m in 2Y-GP1 company at Eagle Farm when winning on a Good track. Maps to be on the speed today and also maps to go very close. Has the ability and the last run was good enough to go close here. Looks a nice price.
Zululand: Fell out of it very poorly when too far forward. Will go further back today and Williams chucked off for Oliver. Can produce more but hard to have.
Chivalry: Ran very well last start at Flemington off a hot tempo and just missed. Barrier 1 and backmarker… poison to be backing him today from the barrier with Bossy onboard for mine at these odds!
Kumaon: Very disappointing run last start in the rose. Looking for it wetter?
Moonovermanhattan: The value in the race. Ran a cracker at Flemington sitting just off the leaders and never given a rest. Maps to sit just off the pace and will be in the winning position at the 100m.
Zebulon: Too far back last start when missing the start. Could be much further forward today and that would see him being hard to beat. Barrier is bad unless he goes right back IMO.
Caveka: Good enough win last start in much easier company. Has to improve and this is MUCH harder.
Silent Whisper: Ran on well enough last start at Flemington. Could threaten for a place but doesn’t look top class to me.
Mihany: Just here for the run and may increase the tempo out front for Zululand. Team tactics? Never!
Comments: I think Moonovermanhattan can take the extra step tonight and maps a good 2 lengths infront of the swoopers.. i can’t see a load of speed and I think he gets his chance as long as Newitt starts him going at about the 400m as he took a long time to get going at Flemington in that straight. Almalad maps to win on times for me also. Taking on the favs out the back.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6
Strategy: Moonovermanhattan E/W. Saver win bet Almalad.
Moonee Valley Race 8
Fat Al: Welcome back Fatty. Don’t dismiss this bloke he loves any type of track and loves any distance especially around this distance. 2nd up last prep won very well in a Listed race. Only thing against is the weight.
Havana Rey: Speaking of welcome back, we haven’t seen our old favourite Havana Rey in forever. New stable. Last win was in a Group 2 over this distance on this track rating. If there is any leader bias, and he returns with any form, he can run well. Don’t fully dismiss.
Hurdy Gurdy Man: Never won first up. Better over much further. Good horse but wait for a few runs and more distance.
At First Sight: Hasn’t been seen since 2011 10th in Melb Cup. 2nd in Group 3 that prep to December Draw, 6th in WFA-G2 over 1600m.. Obviously goes fine this distance but never won on Good. Happy to avoid.
Lightinthenite: Last run 2nd in Darwin Cup (was 3rd but we know what happened with the cheating in this race with the winner). Went backwards last prep and I couldn’t have him here.
Eximius: You can’t fault this horse. In form, weighted well enough but another step up in class is the massive issue today. Will run well.
Desert Jeuney: He ran well without threatening last start at Flemington. Barrier means he will be very far back again and never won on Good.
Gottino: Goes really well first up on form and goes well enough at this distance. Was up a LONG time last prep and found best at much further than this. Not sure he measures up at distance and class first up.
Another Prelate: You know I love this 10YO. He is due a win and he is actually weighted to go very close here. Barrier helps alot also. Big chance on last start run.
Lord Wimble: Impossible to catch. Goes better 2nd up but probably wants wetter and further.
Stratigraphy: Surprised us all last start with that win. Not sure where that came from. Have to respect.
Comments: Very tough way to finish the night. Couldn’t bet here.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 6, 7, 9, 12
Strategy: Another Prelate
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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