Welcome to The Profits form guide for Moonee Valley on 24 October 2014. Last Saturday at Caulfield certainly didn’t go to plan, but thankfully the Quaddie paid well and made up for some just ‘okay’ results. The Best Bet was money back with the saver in the race, next best should have been scratched at barriers while UTL running 2nd was a good place price at least. We also had Admire Ratki the CC winner in our 5 key chances in the race and advised we would be betting into all of these, so it was a good day overall for us playing the right races, even if we didn’t pick a winner for the day (not hiding from this fact, a lot of seconds and we honestly had no luck go our way). Moonee Valley looks a very standard card tonight. Two key bets I want to place down as per the best bets and confidence while the Manikato is the widest i’ve seen in a long time. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Melbourne Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 3 Distant Dreams
The ghostly grey, you won’t be able to miss our runner today… in the greys race. Will be pushing forward to lead and with questionable speed mapped in the race outside of Distant Dreams, could get a dream run again out the front like last start at course. Had them off the bit behind at the 300m while jockey didn’t even touch DD. Was given a reminder whip or two in the final 100m but won with ease by 3.5L and was a very very very impressive win. Even if things don’t go to plan and we get pressured today, I still believe at the weights that Distant Dreams is the best horse in this race on that run and we are getting huge value today being able to back the horse E/W in this 8 horse field.
Melbourne Next Bet
Moonee Valley Race 8 Pheidon
Similar confidence to our best bet today, I came into doing my form expecting to not be on Pheidon at the end of the day, but the horse ticks every single box possible in a race with four clear chances on paper. I’m very keen on the price we are being offered today and will be investing in the race. Should be the best backed of the day and I would take down to around $2.35.
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 5, 7, 9
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 6, 12
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 7, 12
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 6, 7
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Scapolo: Won very well on heavy first up in NZ and two runs since shown nada on dryer tracks. I think he finds his best on the wet and i’ll look away today off this weight.
Fast ‘N’ Rocking: Very good win first up and then last start was also a very good run on a track that just wasn’t playing to suit. Respect the class, only issue is barrier 1 today for mine. Might have to go around the whole field to win the issue.
Free of Doubt: Very strong win two back at Flemington and then the last start was poor and went for spell. Never won at track and better later into runs. May be outclassed by these.
Spirits Dance: Ran Girl Guide to 1L two runs back at Caufield from start to finish. Last start took a sit and wasn’t suited over further at Flemington. Step back to 1200m is IDEAL today and maps to push forward and could get the rails.
Coronation Shallan: Decent enough run first up but never a threat. Harder company today on paper but not so sure on class really. Has to improve again to have a chance. Maps well.
Magnus Reign: Didn’t find as much as expected first up for the new yard. Best runs have been over less distance but obviously still runs well at this distance and loves the track. Hard to ignore the class shown last prep early in it.
Inspector: Bm-64 winner on slow. Every chance last start and couldn’t win. Not here at these weights.
Who You Know: Maps to push forward from wide barrier. Happy Trails colours but certainly not that good. No thanks.
Comments: Expecting Spirits Dance to get the rail and be very hard to get past with a lack of tempo in the race.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Spirits Dance to win.
Moonee Valley Race 2
Lady Cumquat: Well backed last start at Caulfield and loomed up to win but just missed. Up to 2000m today and won over this distance really well last start. Needs a bit of pace on in the race.
No Excuses Bec: Looped the field and beat home a very classy mare in Quayside last start. Looks suited by the distance again today and this is a step up.. but not much.
Spinderbella: Had her chances last start at Cranbourne but just beaten home by a few. Step up in distance again today.
Terai: Down from Sydney. Two good runs in this prep and looks to be wanting the extra distance. Maps well enough.
Count Pastoral: Expected to lead last start but was dead last instead. Shown nothing all 3 runs in aus but forgive last start. Not sure what to make of her.
In Masquerade: First two runs this prep didn’t show much at all. Last prep looked very good but nothing similar to those runs this prep yet. Hard to have.
St Issey: Blocked for runs at critical stages last start at Cranbourne. Loves this distance and good barrier today. Goes well at track.
Melaleuca: Won a fairly average race last start in Adelaide. Has to find much more again.
Abaleen: Led for most the race last start at Cranbourne as a huge priced runner. Looks the leader here. Hard to still have though.
Comments: Very tough race. Lady Cumquat is the top and obvious pick but there is no pace in the race so I can see the runners who decide to be positive having all the favours in the running.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Lady Cumquat to win
Moonee Valley Race 3
Outlandish Lad: Shown nothing all runs this prep. Been a good month and a half though between runs and Oliver jumps on… hasn’t won sicne 2012 but has won once and placed 3 times from 5 starts at track.
Freshwater Storm: Back in the winners circle last start at Caufleild. 60kg today again. 1 place from 6 starts at track a issue and Caulfield where he won last start is his best track for sure.
Black Jet: Much harder race here today than he has been racing in up in QLD. Ran well enough first up but has to obviously improve again.
Aliyana: Since her win four back she has been beaten fairly. Best shown over longer straights. Happy to take her on here even though she maps well from barrier 2.
Distant Dreams: Had to do a fair bit of work early last start to get on over to lead from a wide barrier but still absolutely streeted them by 3.5 lengths. Had them off the bit going around the turn and wasn’t even touched getting a 3-4 length lead around the turn. Whip only pulled in final 100m and wasn’t even tested. Had the run of the race, but looks a good horse off that effort.
Secret Toy Bizness: Shown nothing all prep and hard to see any improvement here.
Slate on Edge: Maps to sit forward again todayf rom barrier. Ran well enough last start at Caulfield but beaten fairly by Freshwater Storm. Meets 1kg better today.
Chosen Moment: Good run from the back last start at Cranbourne. Up in class again here but has improvement to come up in distance. Goes well at track.
Comments: The price being bet on Distant Dreams is simply wrong today. Should get the lead and I actually can’t suggest any other horse will be fighting for it. Slate on Edge would probably be happy to take a sit as well. Very keen and we get the E/W odds also!
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Distant Dreams E/W
Moonee Valley Race 4
London Lolly: Well bred horse. Had every chance even though she laid in, in the straight. Has won at track previously leading all the way but that was as a 2YO. Runs this prep haven’t been near that quality.
Tawteen: Ran very well going head to head with Earthquake last start at Caufleid and was simply found out by a better horse on the day.. but she wasn’t disgraced one bit. Maps to lead and shouldn’t be running this as fast as last start. Could get a charmed run out front uncontested and be very hard to pass.
More Radiant: Did a bit wrong again last start at Caulfield but certainly ran well. Barrier hurts her chances today as i’d now expect her to sit at the rear. Giving 0.5kg to Tawteen for 0.1L defeat last start. Will hoping the lesser hopes pressure the fav.
Sebring Lane: Ridden upside down last start at MV but ran well. Need to find a lot more to measure up to thsi today though. Could push forward.. to pressure for a More Radiant win?
Saint Hugo: Ran well enough in BM-64 great last start… but looks way outclassed here.
Madam Delponte: Rates poorly off last prep and first up run as well. Needs to find 4 lengths.
Arizona Skies: Not disgraced last start at Donald.. but was no where near a win. Outclassed again here.
Liberty Flame: The unknown of the race. Was a pretty decent win in maiden class first up. Don’t dismiss.
Comments: I’ll be very interested in seeing if Sebring Lane is ridden to pester Tawteen out the front or not which could set it up for the stable mate More Radiant. Tawteen is my top pick but I wouldn’t be betting pre-race… i’d be happy to take a shorter price if the horse gets a easy lead 200m into the race.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Tawteen to win.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Our Nkwazi: Big win at course over 1000m five runs back and then shown nothing since. Hard to trust and weight is bad.
Diamond Oasis: Very good win last start ridden to lead at Warwick Farm. The time run was very good with 60kg as well. Wouldn’t expect him to lead today but from barrier 6 can be positive. The obvious chance.
General Jackson: Blocked for runs last start at Cranbourne but wasn’t going to beat the fav there. Back to 950m and ran well two back behind Solsay here.. but solsay hasn’t won since and up to 60kg so have to question if it’s the best formlines. Barrier 11 hurts chances.
State of Wealth: Beat Diamond Oasis three runs back at Doomben and is up 2kg from that run while Diamond Oasis is up 6.5kg.. but DA was unlucky on the day. Two runs sinc ebeen very average.
Fab Fevola: Loves the valley and loves a 955m race and also loves a track that is GOOD. Didn’t get that last start. Also didn’t lead. Has to lead and has to be a good track to win. Price is getting out to stupid odds again.
Out Snippy: Never won first up. Progressed nicely last prep. Best runs were on wetter tracks than we will see today. Barrier helps and will be pushing forward.
Consorting: Good win at course and distance last start. Up 4kg today but Beriman takes the ride again and I really rate her on this track. Will probably have to go around the whole field though.
Cult of Isis: First up today after a very good prep in easier company. Won at track but was over 1200m distances. weighted nicely enough but never won first up and barrier are concerns.
The Bounty Queen: Consistent runner who runs best at this track and distance. Did beat Girl Guide last prep as well. Respect could have gone to the next level on the runs i’ve seen this prep.
Tintagel Rocker: Much harder class race today and hasn’t been winning in easier. I can’t rate the horse in this class today.
Oh George: Ran well enough last start behind Consorting. Needs to find lengths though today.
Comments: I couldn’t take the price on offer for Diamond Oasis or Consorting today. They both look under the correct odds even though they are correctly the top 2 chances in the race. Fab Fevola represents value again if the track is Good at the time of racing while The Bounty Queen has shown all the signs of making the steps up to this grade of class.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 5, 7, 9
Strategy: Small bets Fab Fevola and The Bounty Queen.
Moonee Valley Race 6
Hurdy Gurdy Man: Had every chance last start at course over a similar distance. Looking for much further than this on previous form but does seem to click 2nd up. Never placed from 3 runs at track and 5.5kg above the rest of the field.
Flyingconi: Good Mildura cup win three back. Two back was 4th to Trust in a Gust and not disgraced one bit. Last start Bairnsdale Cup just too far back and still arn well. Barrier hurts but will be hitting line hard.
Cantonese: Looking for further based on last start and ran horribly. Needs another run?
Tristram’s Sun: Just ignore the run in Group 1 last start. It was a stupid aim and placed more suitably here. Form around Hosting and Charmed Harmony will hold up very well. Barrier the only tricky component.
Captain Fancypantz: Love this guy but not sure he is going well at all this prep. Had his chances the last two runs and found nothing. Have to avoid him today.
Smarty Mac: Sent up to Darwin and got a win and ran well in the cup. Have to respect today and suited by distance. Barrier aweful though.
Gridhian: Good win at Mronington three back, disappointed at Caulfield but made up for it then at Morphetville. Much harder again today and finds a few too good i’d say.
Final Jest: Not up to this based on all three runs this prep.
Beliveau: Keep this simple. Wanting further. No thanks.
Leveraction: Been running in picnic type grade recently and still couldn’t get a win there. To be fair thought he form is okay. Has to find lengths today though i’d say.
Riviera Riches: Very strong win two back in much easier class on a Good track which seems to be a key with the horse. Can run well but barrier hurts chances.
Arctic Song: Very good run last start at Caulfield but just beaten by a very game London Stripe. Going very well this prep and continues to improve. Maps from barrier 3 to be the obvious leader… another step up in class… price looks short enough though.
Comments: Have to take on the favourite at these poison odds. Much harder class today. Flyingconi form is very sound while Tristram’s Sun has also been racing very well.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 6, 12
Strategy: Backing Tristram’s Sun and FlyingConi
Moonee Valley Race 7
Buffering: Runs well at the track having won 4 from 8 and place another 2. Very good win first up and good barrier today. Hard to ignore.
Lankan Rupee: Jumped at $2 or less three times at this track and lost all of them. Only win was over those odds and back out to that today. Had every chance last start at course and distance and just couldn’t get past the buff. Maps to push forward again today but may take a sit if possible? Have to respect. Type of horse that continues to improve into runs.
Temple of Boom: Every chance the last two runs and just not good enough. Never placed at track. Hard to see.
Moment of Change: Never won at track previously. Best form recently shown over 1400m and last start run disappointed with issues. Barrier poor.
Rebel Dane: Looked the winner last start at MV and just missed when unlucky blocked for runs. Expected to be much further back today from barrier 3 which may find the horse out.
Famous Seamus: Wants the pace on. Settle mid to rear of field and flashed home well behind Terravista two back before winning last start. Has to improve.
Terravista: Group 3 win, Group 2 win both by 2 lengths. This is a BIG step up in class though today compared to those horses he beat recently. Maps perfectly from barrier.
Iconic: Finished off nicely enough last start at Caulfield and looks big odds today from barrier. Need luck but can run well.
Not Listenin’tome: Not sure what to make of firs tup. Much better suited over this distance.. has to improve significantly though.
Platelet: Never far off a win. 2nd the last four runs including group company. Was a eye-catcher first up but barrier hurts chances.
Bounding: Every chance last start down the straight but not tough enough. Not improve back to leading or sitting outside leader today around a cornered track again. Have to respect the class at very least.
Angelic Light: The value in the race. Sat off them and while you may feel she had every chance, her best work was late to the line. Will be fitter again for the run most importantly and Oliver takes the ride. Barrier is the key.
Comments: I’m sticking with the form I know and like and also sticking with those who map well here. I’m taking on Terravista here.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 7, 12
Strategy: Lankan Rupee to win. Smaller bet Angelic Light
Moonee Valley Race 8
Slow Pace: Not disgraced either run this prep with a strong 5th in Group 3 over 1500m and then last start 2L 4th behind Moriarty and Rising Roamnce. Top weight today for a reason. Tough barrier to be positive with though… found best on wetter.
Commanding Time: Every chance in Group 3 company last start and not good enough as expected. Back in class here really and will have much more of a chance. Have to respect the Benella Cup win. Extra Zero much better weighted against him though from three runs back form.
At First Sight: Shown nothing at all two runs this prep. Needs a miracle.
Massiyn: Just like At First Sight, needs a miracle to turn the form around after showing absolutely nothing this prep.
Hvasstan: Just ignore last start run in Moe Cup. Breathing issues and horse is better on a dead track than slow. Good track today could do the horse in but did run very well first up on good.
Pheidon: Very good run in Group 1 company last start leading for a large majority of the race at Randwick over 1600m in a time that broke the clock. Up 3.5kg today but way back in class and looks well suited. Showed best runs at this distance and has won 3 from 5 on a good surface. Also won a track previously. Maps as the leader in race also… ticking all the bloody boxes hey?
Extra Zero: Maps very well from barrier 1 today to sit just off the leader. Very good run last start and Hayes is convinced this bloke has never been running better for him. Weighted better than Commanding Time today also… main danger to the fav?
Shenzhou Steeds: First up run was rubbish. Up in distance straight away but generally takes time to get into preps. Never placed at track…. backed on 1.3L 4th to Marksmanship last prep and 0.8L to Wrotham heath have to give chance of course at weight.
Kim Command: Can’t dismiss this bloke. In career best form and keeps running very well. Up in class and up in weight a massive concern though, not to mention the jockey! Yikes!
Rowland: How good was it when we backed him to win at Caulfield and he won by 4.3L? That seem an eternity ago. Needs it wet. Won’t get it.
Schockemohle: Heavily outclassed here today based on previous runs.
Comments: Pheidon just simply ticks every single box in this race while Extra Zero, Commanding Time and Slow Pace looks the main chances to upset the horse. I’m taking Hvasstan on due to the ground I’m expecting.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 6, 7
Strategy: Pheidon to win.
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