Welcome to The Profits form guide for Moonee Valley. The carnival is almost over, but the Friday night meetings at Moonee Valley will continue for the next few months. We saw a speed bias last time we were at the track and the rail is in the same position. Watch early to see how it plays and adjust tips accordingly! As always, I hope your form matches up with mine and are prepared for a killer day at Caulfield tomorrow! Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 3 Catch That Cat
Next Best
Moonee Valley Race 7 Use The Lot
Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 8 Cross of Gold
Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 5, 8, 9
Leg Two: 5, 6, 9, 11
Leg Three: 1, 3, 6, 11
Leg Four: 1, 5, 9, 10
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Clevadude: Won 3 from 4 at this distance and 2 from 4 at track. Last start at this distance missed start and ended up out the back which doesn’t suit the horse. Heavily back in class in this race and from barrier 1 off 57kg after claims will have no excuses. Handles any type of track condition. The one to beat. *WARNING* Missed 2 of last 5 starts. If backing, Suggest taking 20% worse odds in-play to get on when he jumps well. If you dislike the horse, it may be worth laying pre race in the hope he jumps badly!
Calcatta: First two runs this prep were terrible compared to two year old form. Down in class and off 5.5kg from a very favourable barrier, she can sit further forward. Still, hard to have high confidence on last two runs.
Cat Tales: Maps to sit out the back today. Kav yard not going that well but certainly watch to see if he is in the yard. Always a sign he rates a horse when he is on track here! Won well enough over in Adelaide. Watch if the money comes.
Tankster: Won well in fairly easy class first up on Heavy. Hard to see how the horse will go here.
French Hussler: First up win in very easy company was solid enough. Will push forward and sit outside Clevadude.
Magnaro: Ran 2nd twice first and second up last prep. Back in class and down 4kg off those runs. Maps to sit 1 out 1 back and could get the dream run. How good is he?
Mish Mosh: Hard to see her measuring up here.
Gold Hoffa: Doesn’t look good enough on recent runs to win this even at weights.
Comments: Tough race to open the day. Hard to measure some of these up. Watch to see if Kav is in the yard and if money comes.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Magnaro on top from Clevadude
Moonee Valley Race 2
Smart of Moonee Valley to make this race R2 not R1. People will actually turn up for the first and just drink themselves stupid to get through this race. Watch for market movers if playing but there is much better races to get involved with all this weekend.
Confidence 0%
Moonee Valley Race 3
Freezy: Won at distance last prep in similar grade. First up run was solid enough but last start was lame after race.
Godspiel: Won ‘well enough’ last start in the country. Up 0.5kg today which looks a little harsh. Is a nice enough horse.
Catch That Cat: Meow. Last start run was eye-catching. Had no right to win but won well. Equal class today and only up 0.5kg. Weighted to win and barrier suits. Should be suited by up in distance if last start was to go by.
Noble Star: Good win two back at Cranny and then last start blocked for runs at Bendigo went well again. Down in class and down in weight from a good barrier, Maps well.
Princess Rock: Disappointing last start when pulling most the way… but the time out front was very slow and had every chance. Ditto previous start! Oliver gets the ride which does appeal and barrier 4… but looks to be more speed in this race and up to a distance she has never won over.
Noble Twostep: Ran on ‘ok’ last start at course and similar distance. Heavily back in class today and weighted ‘ok’. Awkward barrier but should run well.
Baluch: Two runs back solid 3rd to Pin Your Hopes and then last start ran on ‘ok’ behind Catkins at course. Up to a distance previously not ventured to. Could improve but barrier hurts and will be far back.
Heyday: Big run last start on Heavy. Back in class and back to a less wet track. Can run well from barrier and weighted very well. Should sit forward.
Royal Chassis: Last run was fairly poor at Sale but previous run was decent enough. Hard to see measuring up though.
Chosen Mia: Up in class after 4th at distance last start. Barrier 2 does certainly help. Needs luck.
Comments: *WARNING* If in-play trading, two horses with the name NOBLE in the race. Two stand out runners in Catch That Cat and[notice][/notice] Heyday.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Catch That Cat E/W.
Moonee Valley Race 4
Canonized: Last two runs have been VERY solid. Went close last start just missing when ridden for luck at distance and same class. Then went to Flemington ridden further forward and was 2.5L off a strong winner. Barrier 3 today means he could position slightly further forward. Will need some luck but is good enough.
Harvey’s True Heart: Over-raced last start but wasn’t good enough. Actually 3kg worse off in this race. Maps much better today though. Could go close.
Providential: Had every chance on last start run but was very poor. Up 3kg today and hard to see reversing the form on that run.
London Stripe: All runs this prep not good enough to be winning this, even though down in class.
Tycoon Rob: Went close two runs back at course and distance. Weighted 2kg better off than HTH and Providential today as well. Barrier 1, will certainly go forward and could pinch it if there was a speed lane. Big chance again.
Bellissimo: $3 favourite in Open Class last start when defeated 2 lengths. Maps poorly from barrier 11 but don’t write off at all.
Bringenbrong: Won two back from start to finish in much easier company. Last start went back and was very poor. Weighted much better today but hard to see getting the position required.
Milensnake: Maps to win today. Last start went close in country last start. Down to 52kg today and weighted to go close.
Tucanchoo: Poor barrier today but last start was a very solid win in a good time. Down 1kg today and Dunn in great form takes the ride. Rates to win.
Curragh King: Down 6kg today off a close 0.2L 3rd at Bendigo. Maps to get a similar run today and at weights comes into it with every chance.
Prakticality: Good enough hores but first up was too poor to win today.
Comments: A very tough race on paper. About six horses who could win. Very hard to find a clear winner.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Curragh King on the E/W. For the record, Tucanchoo on top but the price is way too short.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Johannapine: Last win was from start to finish at Caulfield. Goes well first up and rates well enough to win. Only run at track went very close. Goes very well at this type of distance and if returns at best will win.
Prettyhappyaboutit: Ran very poorly first up this prep. Down to 54kg and if back to best can go close.. but off first up run I couldn’t have.
Oamaru Princess: Didn’t measure up the last two runs to win. Weighted poorly today. Can run ‘close. but from barrier, I can’t see winning.
Thiamandi: Showed much improvement last start at course and distance and is 2kg better weighted today. Maps to lead.
Purrealy Solved: Won two of last three so hard to dismiss. Just not so sure she will measure up in this class.
Bawcatme: Ran well over in WA. Even won at Ascot so is a city class winner. Won 3 over 1000m so suggestion is she can measure up.
Peninsula Dane: Continues to run well with two 2nds the last two runs. Down to 52kg today which gives her a chance.
Balaclava Lady: Super disappointing this prep. Hard to see the improvement when dropping back to this distance.
Unique Storm: Big win on heavy last prep at the Bool. Ran a close 2nd at track over 1000m also off similar weight. Rates to go well.
Easy To Look At: Last few runs disappointing and weighted only fairly. Not for mine.
Carvalho: Doesn’t rate well enough today.
Comments: Another tough race. Lamingtons looks the value in the race while Thiamandi deserves to be favourite.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 5, 8, 9
Strategy: Thiamandi on top
Moonee Valley Race 6
Emboldened: Goes well enough first up and runs well in this class. Never placed at track is a massive issue. Weighted poorly I’d suggest but you never know with this tpe of horse.
The Minister: Went close in a much harder race last start at course and distance. Barrier certainly hurts today and off 60kg makes it hard.
Far Horizons: Ran on well enough last start at course over the 950m. Barrier 1 today and hopefully kicks up a little further. Weigthted better today as well off 56kg. Last win was in 2011 but was good enough first up to suggest can run a better race today.
Staralan: Disappointing runs first up but down 4kg today after claims. Badly mapped and will have to fight for a lead.
Paaratte Pat: Disappointing last star twhen just got too far back. Barrier 3 means he can sit further forward today and could go close if repeats two back run.
Schumacher: Classy horse who was very progressive last prep. Maps to go forward and times last prep were seriously good. If gets a good ride will be hard to beat.
Lohengrin: Not the best horse first up. Hasn’t won since 2012 but was a progressive type back then. Not sure measures up.
Prussian Power: Up 3.5kg from last start. Never won a place here previously but has improved this prep. A chance.
Hard Romp: Missed start and had to do a lot of work early to get a decent position over the 950m. Down 1kg today and down in class plus barrier 5. Rates well.
Observer: Good start to finish win at Pakenham last start and down in weight. Need to have improved though.
Gold Rory: Short price favourite who won first up last prep very well and then ran well 2nd up. Been off 412 days but is a good horse. Will try and lead and be hard to run down.
Tabasco Force: Very disappointing first up but did win here two preps back. I just couldn’t have though on first up run.
Danlight Dancer: Not in this class.
Comments: Gold Rory could be good enough to blow these away, but you know I want to bet around the horse first up after so long off.
Confidence 65%
Quaddle Leg Two: 5, 6, 9, 11
Strategy: Schumacher to win. Saver Gold Rory.
Moonee Valley Race 7
North Lodge: Very disappointing ride here two back. Should have led. Last start at Flemington ran ok but was no match. Back in class and back to 2500m off 57kg. Comes into this with chances. Needs to challenge for the lead IMO.
Rock Musician: Not going well enough this prep for me. Needs it to be slow or heavy. Weighted ok though.
Tanah Lot: Ran a close 5th at Caulfield two back behind Mujadale which is strong form. Last start instead of taking sit, they decided to lead. Huge mistake. Goes well at the track. Weight the only issue.
Gotta Dream: Not good enough to win this on last start run.
Anudjawun: Ran very wide last start. Don’t discount fully. Going ok.
Use The Lot: Should have won last start. Very poor ride. Won’t happen again here. Rates to win from out the front.
Ambers Kingdom: Not sure can go close enough on first up run.
Rilelilmag: Hard to see the win on last 3 runs at similar distances.
Yuka Joy: Start to finish win two back in much easier comapny. Last start ridden out front but was poor. Placed 4 from 5 at track but never won.
Smoke Burner: Progressive type coming over from Adelaide. Runs well at distances and weighted very well today. Don’t dismiss.
Ayushman: Can’t see going close.
Handsome: Not good enough for this on recent runs.
Jileks Spur: Going ‘ok’. Not the best but wouldn’t full discount on recent runs.
Comments: Use The Lot is the best horse in this race and should be winning, but the Quaddie numbers do have potential.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 6, 11
Strategy: Use The Lot to win. Smaller bet on Tanah Lot.
Moonee Valley Race 8
Holy Heart: Maps to lead. On best run last prep could run well at the weights but first up showed nothing when has previously one ok on Heavy. Hard to get a hold of. Has never missed a place 2nd up and won 2 of those 3.
Ortayga: Not going anywhere near good enough to win this on recent runs.
Tricky Glen: Last three runs have all been solid. Equal weight today and barrier 2 helps. Maps to need a bit of luck but can go well.
Vee Force: Tricky barrier but has the ability to get over from out the front. Don’t dismiss.
Cross of Gold: At his best,he wins this. But that is a hard thing to see off first up run. Now that has been said, His last win was over a similar distance, similar race, similar class and he went to take a sit forward. Barrier 1, I expect the same.
Danzoya: Needs further distances.
Too Deadly: Ran ok first up but last start was poor. Not the worst here.
Fourdays Of Mylife: Went close two back. Needs more wet IMO.
Belle Ez: Went very well last start in easier company. Weighted nicely today and barrier is ok. Ridden for luck but can go well.
Dare I Ask: big win last start on Heavy. Equal weight today. Two previous runs on Good were VERY good. Will be ridden for luck but has every chance from the barriers especially if it is ridden quick out front.
Final Jest: Progressive type but looks unders today for mine. Happy to take it on.
Northern Jet: Last two runs don’t seem progressive enough for this.
Minute By Minute: Doesn’t seem good enough for this class.
You Tell Me: First up win in decent time over the 1532m. Looks progressive and from barrier could Blastoise this field away.
Comments: I’m going to take a risk on the Hayes runner here. Hayes rarely runs a horse around he doesn’t think can win and at his best, he can win this. Barrier is the key for mine.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 5, 9, 10
Strategy: Cross of Gold on top from Dare I Ask.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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