Welcome to The Profits form for Moonee Valley Night Racing! We will be on-course once again for another amazing night of racing. How good does race 7 look? This will be a cracker! We will be at the young members cocktail party having a good time, but will be going down to the yard to check out the horses in select races. As always, we hope your form matches up with ours. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Race 4 Sari
Next Best
Race 6 Sheer Talent
Best Value
Race 1 Baqaat
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Blue Ribbon: Ran well enough last start from dead last to suggest can go close today. Needs to get a run at the right time but should enjoy the extra distance.
Vittoria: Strong form lines from last start placed in a 3F-GP1! Will enjoy the step up in class today and off 55kg looks the one to beat. Can go forward from 1.
Friday Hussy: Last two runs have been solid enough but has found something too good each time. Up in class and similar weight.
Elldami: Progressive type who ran well last prep at Flemington for a 4th in similar grade. Ran well last start at Morphetville but up in class and up 2.5kg looks harsh.
Baqaat: Very strong form lines with a 2nd to Spelldancer who won here last start. Speed maps to go forward and can win!
Champagne Love: Big run last start but can’t win this on weights. Worse off big time today against others in last race.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Vittoria is the class runner here and deserves to win… BUT, from barrier 1 most likely gets stuck for a run. Baqaat maps to lead this up and not be passed. Rail will be playing well for everyone, but she will get a strong run out the front and should be going VERY close. Big price today..
Moonee Valley Race 2
Freshwater Storm: Big run two back at course when 2nd to Xavi. After that down in class back at country grade and schooled them. 57kg today after claim looks very fair and speedmap suggests 1 back rails giving every chance.
Hell’s Kitchen: Finished side-by-side with Freshwater here two runs back and meets 1kg better off and speedmaps to get a 1 out 1 back run which could be very favourable. Down in class today after last start good run.
Fabriano: Continues to put in solid runs. Massively down in class today and only up 2.5kg. Ignore previous run and look to run before that at course which was solid enough. Has every chance today. Speedmaps poorly is only issue.
Magical King: Hard to have on last two runs when clearly outclassed. Down in class today and weighted ok, but hard to have.
Fresh Light: Ran well enough this prep but I would suggest his form lines are not good enough to be winning this without a bit of luck.
Another Blue Boy: Everything went wrong last start including missing the kick. Has the ability to run out front but shouldn’t measure up here.
Twin Soul: Hard to judge. Suspect looking for further than this although you never know. Not the best import you have ever seen.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: I found it really hard to pick between Hell’s Kitchen and Fabriano in this race. Fabriano has the biggest upside. Hell’s Kitchen gets the better run of the but Fabriano should be the one who can swoop and may surprise by pushing more forward than expected.
Moonee Valley Race 3
Excitable Boy: Huge won last start at Flemington when improved significantly on previous runs. Maps well enough from inside barrier but may need luck to get a run.
Gracious Prospect: Ran well enough last start at Tasmania. Will need more luck here.
Lannister: 3rd behind Twilight Royale and then 4th behind Charles In Charge not the worst form lines going around at all. May just get too far back to show anything though.
Cruden Bay: Ran very well first up in maiden company. Will be pushing forward and be using the rail to his advantage. Beat home some ok horses.
Mista Spot: Very average first up. Could improve but hard to back here.
Kincaple Chief: Full brother to Kincaple who was a very handy horse. Dunn/Hayes combo fairly average normally.
Vero Beach: Well breed horse related to a handy Warwick Farm winning horse. Like to see in the yard.
Judical Rock: Out of a city winner and Fastnet Rock. Look in yard.
Confidence UNKNOWN
Strategy: The three runners with no form all look to be classy. I would most likely be backing Cruden Bay if they were out of the race, but I really do want to check this race out from the yard to see how the new horses look and to see which trainers have turned up to see them run.
Moonee Valley Race 4
Sumakaray: Ignore last start when she clearly wasn’t right. Down to 56kg today after claim but most likely gets trapped in a horrible position trapped the trail 2-3 back.
Big Chill: Up in class last prep ran some solid races. May get stuck out 3 wide if can’t find a spot which hurts. Could be value.
Summer Gem: Gone backwards the last two starts when showing nothing. Speedmaps poorly so can’t be on her anymore.
Ephemera: Outside barrier is a major disadvantage but may get in 1 out 1 back. Down 2kg today looks very fair when things went wrong last start and she nearly won anyway. Big chance.
Sari: Probably the best form lines I have seen in a long time. First up BEAT Easy to Look At which a lot have form around in this race. Then beat Graceland who won on Wednesday. 0.1L 2nd to General Peekay who has won well since and then 3rd on heavy (when blocked) to Lonhspresso who won a feature at Morphetville on Monday. Speedmaps to win!
We Own An Angel: Big run last start behind Lonhspresso and won previous two runs this prep. Weighted well enough to win.
Bon Vacance: Solid runner who doesn’t get the best run from the gate. Needs a lot of luck.
Sheza Single Girl: Not shown anything to suggest can win this.
Chilli Beach: Hard to see her turning the tables on Sari making up the 2.5L.
Dane Opera: Maiden winner. Step up today. Only positive is she will most likely lead.
Spitfire Lady: Ran on ok first up and weighted nicely. Needs to show much more.
Sweetener: Showed enough last start but like others need to improve.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Form lines of Sari are huge and the price is significantly over what it should be today. At weights I do have to saver We Own An Angel also.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Dream Face: Has the speed to try and hold up from barrier 1. Looks important to be able to do it here. Only won once from 6 first up and off 57.5kg would need to have trained on significantly.
Lady Melksham: A horse who has proved to be better on wet tracks than good (never placed). Didn’t show anything first up in a much harder race. Hard to have at the price but a win wouldn’t shock.
Carry To Fortune: Runs well first up but this does look a race much harder than she is used to. Been a while since she won.
Chinzia: Ran well enough last two starts at course and distance. May get pushed back a little further today but is 3kg better off than two back 0.2L 2nd to Shamal Wind.
Lateva: Not up to this.
Lil Bit Musky: Not up to this.
Shezzam: No.
Evenaz: Hard to see.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie leg one: 1, 2, 4, 6
Strategy: Not really keen here after scratchings.
Moonee Valley Race 6
Hvasstan: Will sit either 3 back the outside or get trapped 3 back the rails. Was huge running on last start at Flemington. Up in distance a plus today.
Sheer Talent: Get’s every chance today and speedmaps to either lead it up or sit outside the leader. Big win two back and ran on very well last start out the front. Hard to pass if the rail is playing well in previous 2000m+ races.
Philippi: Get’s every chance today with a much better run. Should sit either 1 out 1 back or 1 out 2 back. Will be hitting the line hard.
Bass Strait: Speedmaps to need luck today. Will be coming from the back late.
Gerontius: Hard to see the progression around these talented runners.
Soldier’s March: Couldn’t win a maiden.
Green Roller: Ran on well enough the last two starts to suggest could go close today at huge odds.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg two: 1, 2, 3, 7
Strategy: Love the price here for Sheer Talent who speedmaps to win this today. The price won’t last if the front runners in the early races out front run well.
Moonee Valley Race 7
Outlandish Lad: Never missed a place at track and two back ran 3rd when ridden for luck and blocked for run in WFA-G2. May get trapped in a bad position.
Parthian: First up and doesn’t have the best of first up records. Speedmaps well enough though but never ran at track. Hard to know really.
Freereturn: Always runs well at track and has won 4 of 5 at track with only loss to Sea Lord who is 4/4 at the track and won a WFA-G2 last start at the track. Never won 2nd up a massive issue. This looks harder than normal.
Zedi Knight: Huge run last start but this race looks much harder. Has turned a corner finally after 8 poor runs. Hard to back it up again today I suspect.
Utah Saints: Suited to longer distances and always runs ok first up.
Go The Knuckle: Down 2kg today suits but from barrier 1 will need a load of luck today.
Blackie: Not won since March of 2011. Suited to much further.
Loveyamadly: Absolutely HUGE last start and speed maps to have another huge run. Only issue is if somehow gets trapped on the rails!
It’s Crunch time: Not shown enough last two starts in similar class. Has the ability but happy to be on others.
Mr Chard: Not won since 2010. Hard to have here.
Eight Bills: Unlucky last start at Flemington and has won 2 form 4 at track.. but 0 from 17 at class. Needs luck here and hard to see with this run. Only won 1 from 16 at distance!
YouBolt: Is a MASSIVE price today down 4.5kg and 6kg on last two runs behind Rebel Bride who would be a short priced favourite to win this race today!
It Is Written: Unlucky last start. Down 1kg again today. Every chance but does get back further than normal.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg three: 3, 8, 12, 13
Strategy: The price being offered for Loveyamadly is value, but there are some good horses here at big prices. I will be going a big bet on Loveyamadly with my other two picks in the race being bet on also.
Moonee Valley Race 8
Daybreak: Ignore last start in harder company on heavy. Looks to be back in a winable class today off a nice weight. Outside barrier an issue.
Littlebitaluck: Decent win two back but looks harder today and off 60kg hard to have.
Undercurrent: Keeps putting in solid runs but this looks to be beyond him again.
Aussie Public: Only won once first up previously (not last prep). Was running in similar races but this looks hard first up.
Redangelo: Not good enough on last start form.
Lord Durante: Won by 6L last start at Bendigo from the front. Will be pushing forward again today but at a lesser distance. Still looks to have huge upside.
Poitier: Ran well enough first up this prep to suggest will run very well today.
Cyclone Andy: Didn’t show anything last prep and first up run didn’t flatter.
Taxi Driver: Will be trying to lead this up today and form lines suggest can run well enough first up to go close.
First Print: Really should have been winning last start if wanted to be winning this. Is weighted to win today off 54.5kg but may get a little too far back.
Magnus Reign: Strong form lines from last prep and should be positioning in a handy fashion today and running on.
Reigning Lass: Jumped poorly first up and then blocked for runs. Suggest forgive that run, can win today.
Tycoon Rob: Not on previous form from last prep.
The Shank: Ran well enough last start. Hard to see with barrier but can run well.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie leg four: 1, 6, 7, 9, 11, 12
Strategy: Not sure on this race. Lord Durante is the stand out.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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