Welcome to the Profits form for Moonee Valley and Warwick Farm on Saturday 24 August 2013. The card at Moonee Valley has come up a bit tougher than normal, but there looks to be a few stand outs in the bunch. Looking towards Sydney, there looks to be some competitive fields and we will be able to get a grasp on some cup hopes going forward. I will be heading down to Moonee Valley from race 2 onwards and will try and keep you all updated with on track conditions and horses from the yard. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 3 Adamantium
Next Best
Moonee Valley Race 4 Clevadude
Sydney Best
Warwick Farm Race 6 Toydini
Best Value
Warwick Farm Race 8 Riva De Lago
Lay of the Day
Moonee Valley Race 4 Cauthen
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Moonee Valley Race 1
The Huntress: Solid enough form last start. Will get far back and could get stuck the rails is a big issue.
Gregers: Very big run first up this prep at course and similar distance. Should be even better over the 1200m and the barrier does help. The one to beat.
Celeritas: Ran well last prep but seemed to go best over 1600m. Needs further you would expect.
Pindan Pearl: Moody runner whose first two runs have been solid enough. Ran on well when blocked for a run at Caulfield and to be fair, the race was run at a fairly slow pace. Down 2.5kg today and looks the main threat.
Miss Grey Goose: Good win in maiden class but needs to find much more today.
Hot Ruby: Couldn’t win a maiden race.
Viva La Cent: Couldn’t win a maiden.
Comments: A race of two for mine in Gregers and Pindan Pearl. Expecting The Huntress to get a block or two and I don’t think the horse will get the best position in run to chase down Gregers or Pindan Pearl.
Confidence: 75%
Strategy: I’m not too interested in betting here unless Gregers gets out to around the $1.90ish price which shouldn’t happen. I couldn’t take the shorts with 2 places paid on Pindan Pearl and don’t think the exchange price on 3 places is value either.
Moonee Valley Race 2
Reuben Percival: A lack of pace in the race could see Reuben given the lead. Weighted very well today all things considered off 57.5kg. Big chance.
Crafty Cruiser: We finally saw a turn around in his form last start which was good to see. Ran on very well over the 2000m. Back up to the longer distances which suits and off 52.5kg down in class… he looks very suited today. Maps to take a sit near the front today and as long as he doesn’t do much work this will suit as he just couldn’t find enough last start at Caulfield. Big chance.
Gotta Take Care: Ran well enough last start at course and distance to suggest could turn the tables today 1kg better off agaiinst Stable Star today. Will be a winning chance for sure.
Stable Star: Went close two back at Caulfield behind Use The Lot and then got the win last start at course and distance in a blow out just. Can go out to the front today if Prebble wants to and could sneak the win. Big chance.
Streaky Fella: I quite liked his run last start in easier company in Adelaide. Looked to go well and down 3kg today. Don’t fully dismiss.
High Aims: Going absolutely great guns this prep with strong wins all prep. Never won on Dead or Good is a massive issue… but won very well on Slow last start and if we have a dead track, it shouldn’t be much different. Weighted to win.
Innocent Lady: I could this horse as a wet tracker. It hasn’t won since coming over from new Zealand in 2012 although has gone close a few times, interestingly the closest at Flemington on a Good track over 1400m. Struggle to see the horse winning this distance.
Tanah Lot: Easier class win last start. Hard to see the progression at the weights today but is a small chance.
Rowland: Poorly weighted today. I really can’t see him winning.
Bright Horizon: Not in this on recent runs.
Ambers Kingdom: Can’t have on two runs this prep.
Comments: I have this race down to about four runners. I am happy to risk Stable Star and Gotta Take Care today from this list. Crafty Cruiser and High Aims are the two who really do stick out. The query with High Aims is if the horse will handle the track condition while the query with Crafty Cruiser is if last start was simply just a poor race or if he is back to his best.
Confidence: 70%
Strategy: Backing High Aims for 1 unit and Crafty Cruiser for 0.5 units.
Moonee Valley Race 3
General Truce: I have a high opinion of this horse but he is better off a run or two in. Never missed a place at track and won twice. I prefer him down the straight at Flemington but he is solid here as form suggests. Good track is a plus as well.
Adebisi: First two runs this prep have been ‘just ok’. Never run at the track previously but will certainly be suited. Expect they will try and lead up although some speedmaps have him sitting outside of Golden Sunshine… others have Adamantium leading. Should ensure a strong pace out front. Not sure he can hold on.
Broken: Suited by the track condition last start at Flemington when won well. Up 3kg today and the field does look actually harder today. 1 from 7 at track and 1 from 7 on Good tracks. Maps poorly.
Commanding Jewel: Kept running some ‘good’ races before putting in best effort with a big 3F-GP1 win over Dear Demi by nearly 3 lengths at the 1600m. Back to the 1000m trip which in all seriousness is not the desired trip, but she does find it handleable. 1/1 at course and 1/1 at distance. This is by far her biggest test yet. Maps well enough today but the big issue is if she gets caught on the rails behind Canali and even potentially Golden Sunshine as well. The distance could just not be long enough for her to show her best.
Adamantium: A horse I have a HUGE opinion of. Before getting injured last prep, I felt he was the next superstar at this distance, especially down the straight and was expecting a Group 2/1 win. Word from the stable is that he has returned in great order and the three jump outs are proof. It’s hard to fault a horse who has run a 1:08.2 down the Flemington straight. Newitt’s comments were interesting and it sounds like he wants to lead with Adamantium which considering the barrier, I think is the right move. Most speed maps have this not happening. I hope it happens and works. Just a hint, The horse will trade into $2.20 or lower if leading going around the turn on the rails. Might be worth a hedge if you like that type of play.
It’s Crunch Time: A solid horse who goes well first up, but this does look a little beyond him. Does go well at the track and distance.
Durnford: Just here for the run.
Canali: Not going well enough this prep.
Pocket Rockets: Very strong win last start down the Flemington straight. Only won 2 from 18 on a good track but is 3 from 6 on a dead. Will have to come from a long way back.
Chosen To Fly: Good horse, not good enough for this on previous runs.
Golden Sunshine: Strong horse expected to put pace into the race, but very hard to see her measuring up today in this class. Weight is the only advantage.
Comments: A tough race and the way different horses are ridden will decide what happens. I believe that Adamantium will be ridden correctly out the front today and the only thing that will stop the horse is riding about 4 rating points below what I expect due to this being a cornered track and not down a straight. It is also important to note that my confidence is based on a Dead to almost Good surface. I will adjust this in the morning if I don’t feel an upgrade is coming.
Confidence: 80%
Strategy: Backing Adamantium to win
Moonee Valley Race 4
Long John: The real deal. Long John won his last two at Flemington and Sandown by 3.8L and 3.8L and even did a few things wrong. Down 2.5kg today and rates very well today. Maps to sit outside the leader. Big chance.
Charles In Charge: Two starts for two wins on Heavy and Good over the 1200m. Been off a fair while and has trained on well it seems. Williams jumps off to ride Shamus Award instead which is interesting. Maps to lead and will not be setting a furious tempo.
Shamus Award: Ran a strong campaign last prep but just couldn’t get a win. Maps average a best today and could somehow get trapped the rail if unlucky. Never actually won a race.
Clevadude: Some speedmaps have him sitting 3-4th in the race. We know he jumps poorly but surely they are going to try and sit forward today again. Hard to judge. Interesting that he gets a better jockey today and is 1.5kg better off against the favourite in the race. Strange.
Weinholt: Better weighted today but considering the run last start, hard to see him running better today.
Jade’s Boy: Ran well enough last start at Flemington but just wasn’t good enough. Should run well but not winning IMO.
Cauthen: So I have watched the race vs Clevadude quite a few times now on replay. Cauthen is speedmapped to the back today. This tells me a couple of things. Unlike last start when Cauthen was ridden around the turn about 1-1.5 metres off the rail, he will be 3-4 metres off. That is a lot of extra ground to make up. Combine that with Clevadude’s weight advantage of 1.5kg today and the 1 length gap.. plus a better rider, I can’t make an argument for this horse to pass Clevadude. Now when you consider the other classy runners here today, the price looks wrong. I really don’t like the riding style of James McDonald either, he is on the ‘Do not back’ list for me, especially in Melbourne. I mean seriously, why would you put a jockey who is 1 win from 36 at Caulfield/Mv/Flemington on this horse? Lay of the day.
Epic Saga: Hard to see this horse progressing to beat all of these today. Maps only average as well.
Comments: My thoughts have been made quite clear. Cauthen is the Lay of the Day in this race. Clevadude appeals on last start but there is always the query with how the horse jumps. Long John looks the other key chance in the race.
Confidence: 75%
Strategy: I will most likely just be laying Cauthen in this race with a small win bet on Clevadude due to the odds.. but if you are not a layer, then back Clevadude to win for 2 Units and Long John for 1.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Elite Elle: Jumped poorly last start and overraced and had plenty of excuses. Back down into what looks a significantly easier race and quite winable today. Looks good here as long as she jumps well.
Lucky Penny: Class runner of the race who should be pushing forward today. The big issue is if the 1200m is just too short for the horse who has only ever had 1 start at distance (on heavy) so you can’t get any form from that. Personally think the 1200m is fine from out the front.
Gossip Girl: Going forward today and could potentially lead this up which suits the horse… or just take a sit. Goes well 2nd up… first up run was fair but given a very average ride. Does she have the improvement to win today? I’m not so sure. I couldn’t count her out though. She is certainly better suited to going forward.
Twilighting: Two very poor runs last prep. Need to show significant improvement to be in this.
Draw Forward: Prefer to see her out the front and shouldn’t get that luxury today. Off 51kg is certainly a big advantage in her favour though.
Spot On Maggie: Frustrating horse who just doesn’t have the will to win. Weighted nicely here today but never placed at track and never won in class. Maps to have to come from a long way back that isn’t ideal here.
Barbie’s Bombshell: Never placed at track and never placed in class.
Dartook: Hard horse to judge. Never measured up in this class. If trained on and can produce similar run to two back.. could be coming home well.
Sensational Report: Shown nothing this prep.
Jiggle It: Going only ok. Can’t see win here.
Champagne Shisha: Won well here last prep but this is certainly a big step up in class. Maps poorly from horrible barrier.
Petite Diablesse: Disappointing end to the prep. Showed enough running 3rd to Alzora at Flemington in Group 3 3F class. Suspect 1200m is best distance as well. Don’t dismiss her!
Lachlan Lily: A horse who won’t measure up here. Shouldn’t be in the race. Know it’s limit!
Comments: As long as Elite Elle jumps well, I think she can lead this up from the inside and be very hard to pass. Lucky Penny is the obvious danger while Gossip Girl has an unknown element at big odds. Dartook could be the blowout at big odds.
Confidence: 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 9
Strategy: Backing Elite Elle and savering Lucky Penny
Moonee Valley Race 6
Thought Worthy: Won at similar distance in first prep before going onwards to the longer races. Measured up with the best in England and is a serious chance today even at such a short distance. Just don’t dismiss.
Tuscan Fire: Absolutely super win at $140 last start at Flemington. Up another 100m today and up 2kg. Scary to think that O’Sullivan said this horse is only 70% fit last start so you can only imagine the progression today. I actually believe the horse is better on less rain affected surface as well. Has won at distance previously and placed 6 of 9 times. A serious contender and could take a sit or even lead this up (prefer if they took a sit). Either way they sit in a more forward position today.
Massiyn: Never won or placed at this distance. Irish runner who has claims to be out here for Spring. Not winning this though IMO.
Keep Cool: Didn’t handle the slow ground last start and will appreciate being back on a better surface today. That being said, I think he needs to step up to 2000m to find his best. Maps poorly.
Spacecraft: One of the chances to lead this up today. Off 53kg today and has every chance to find the front. Won 4 from 13 at track and the distance suits. Only issue if whether he measures up.
Veewap: Keeps sucking people in and taking the money. Barrier 1, hard to have today.
Cuban Sunday: Looking for further.
Clear For Action: Maps to sit out the back today and is better weighted off what wasn’t the worst run ever last start. A big chance.
Lord Pyrus: Not winning this.
Fast And Free: A horse I have a very high opinion of, this is certainly a step up, but if he has trained on like I think he has, he could push these. In with big chances today.
Cheviot Beach: Too poor first up.
Lightenuff: The natural leader today but doesn’t seem to be going well enough.
Comments: Tuscan Fire was super last start and surely only improves today? He most likely sits in a better position more forward also. Then you have other progressive types first up likes Fast and Free or Clear For Action the WFA-G1 International runner. Tough race to judge.
Confidence: 65%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 5, 8, 10
Strategy: Tuscan Fire on top from Fast and Free. Don’t bet large if in here.
Moonee Valley Race 7
Clang and Bang: Last start pace set up by a very strong tempo but the horse improved significantly on previous starts. In equal class today up 2.5kg after claims. Won 3 placed 2 from 6 at this distance which suits more than last week. Won 1 placed 1 at track and from barrier 5 speedmaps well.
Streets of Seattle: Hard to know what ot make of last start. No issues reported. In what I would call a harder race and up 4kg and won’t get a heavy track today. Don’t dismiss but hard to back with confidence.
Midnight Glory: Overraced last start but overall was disappointing. Up 0.5kg again today and is a chance but needs to improve.
Pepin Hoaks: Disappointing last start at Flemington. Maps poorly but should be in with every chance again today.
Supremacy: Big win last start at Flemington going further forward. Should do the same again today and be hard to pass.
The Big Steel: The old bloke has continued to run ok at this track previously. Goes well at this distance and off 54kg is weighted well enough today.. but this does look tougher than last two starts in Darwin.
Dark Note: Not in this on recent runs.
Sea Skye: Meets Supremacy 2.5kg better off today but will find it much harder today to swoop from dead last.
Bel Thor: Lost a plate last start which can only account for the loss. Meets Clang and Bang much better at the weights today and is a big hope today. How will he go on the track conditions is a big question.
Red Eye Special: Not good enough on recent runs.
The Jazz Singer: Seems like he is really wanting a wet track and won’t get that today.. hard to tell how good he will go on the track today. Don’t dismiss.
First Course: Average at least last start. Needs a slow track at least today IMO.
Streets Apart: Not good enough.
Comments: A tough race on paper. Many factors and all depends on the rides given. Hard to go past Bel Thor at the weights while Clang and Bang is a nice price after last starts win.
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 9, 11
Confidence: 65%
Strategy: Bel Thor to win with half size bet on Clang and Bang to win
Moonee Valley Race 8
Stanzout: Hasn’t won since 2010. Not going well enough.
Shadowfax: Ran on very well last start at Caulfield. Step up to 1200m should probably suit and claim down to 56.5kg suits also. Maps well enough but will get stuck the rails.
Hotham Heights: Maps poorly. Very poorly is the first impression. Rawiller the last rider to win on this back in 2012 and goes back on today. Last two runs have been very respectable on surfaces that didn’t suit. Previous to that at course and distance went super close. Don’t dismiss.
Le Bonsir: Goes very well at course and distance. Has won first up, at track and many times at distance. Maps to go forward and has a good chance.
Flyingconi: Maps out th eback today and will find it very hard to run on today from that far back. That being said, he did it two runs back. Up in weight today and you would rather be a little further forward.
Hollowlea: Very poor last two runs. Hard to have.
Cavallo Nero: Absolutely super run down the straight last start at Flemington and previous run was also solid on heavy. Has been crying out for a class like this on a ground that suits. Only thing that hurts is how he maps today.
Rusambo: Showden runner who was thrown at some really strong races at 3 and just didn’t get a win in any of them. Won 2 from 3 at the Valley. Needs to be swooping from a long way back is the main issue.
Sir Fernando: Not good enough on last start run.
She Goes to Rio: Not going anywhere.
Stratigraphy: Strong enough runner but won’t measure up today.
General Offer: Interesting horse who probably needs a few runs to find best… which probably isn’t this class?
Comments: Tough race to finish the card but I can’t go past Cavallo Nero on it’s recent runs. Just sticks out. Resumer Rusambo looks the main threat.
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 7, 8
Confidence: 70%
Strategy: Cavallo Nero to win
Warwick Farm Race 3
Go with what is working for you and don’t give it up. Queens’s Elect has won her last two starts with a 0.3L 2nd and 0.8L 4th behind that. Stepping up in class again today but off 54kg, you know this is a proven mare who loves the distance and is in top form. You are going to get the right price today backing her on the E/W.
Confidence 75%
Warwick Farm Race 6
A super tough race that is made competitive with the lack of rain hitting Sydney. If the track is a slow or heavy, then it is hard seeing Rain Affair losing, but if we get any other surface, it is wide open.
There are a number of key runners here you simply can’t write off. Toydini is the stand out for me on form lines. I can see him taking the next step this prep and winning this race outright if correct today. Veyron is a super interesting runner. Running 1.8L off Pierro is nothing to be laughed at and he will be suited today as well from barrier 2 on a track like Warwick Farm.
Finally, Beaten Up is meant to be going super for the stable and could go close. Foreteller I think need further.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: I am super confident today on toydini while I will be having a small go on Veyron also. There are many options for betting here. You can take Toydini at around $5s in favourite out markets, $9 with Sportsbet for refund if runs 2nd to favourite or around $12s elsewhere.
Warwick Farm Race 8
One of the toughest races you will see in a long time, Rebel Dane deserves to be favourite but Glen Boss has ridden a total of 13 times at Rosehill and Randwick the past 12 months for 0 winners and hasn’t ridden this course. Those stats are very hard to justify giving him the ride today.
I am super keen on a runner here today who I think will develop into a multiple Group 1 winner down the track.
Riva De Lago was put up $26/$8 and has been bet into around $18 all around the market now. I feel this is still over the odds for a horse of this talent. While he hasn’t won at this track previously, his last run was VERY close to a win. Cassidy will need to give one of his better rides today to get him home.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Backing Riva De Lago E/W and savering on Rebel Dane.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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