Welcome to The Profits form guide for Moonee Valley on 7 February 2014. Wednesday was a huge success this week back at Caulfield for the midweek races with 2 from 3 at some nice odds. The last few weeks our Next Best Bets have been going a treat while we just can’t get much luck with our best, too many horses slowly away or getting injured. Hopefully this turns around today with Kaiser Sun who looks big overs today. Don’t have too many bets tonight, only a few stand out. A big day to come Saturday from Caulfield with some great value on offer in many races! As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 5 Kaiser Sun
Next Best
Moonee Valley Race 6 Master’s Degree
Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 7 Amaverde
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 7, 9
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 8
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 7, 8
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 5, 8, 9, 11, 13
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Happy to watch this race. Waldorf would be my tip based on progression and barrier.
Comments: ZzzzzZZzz maidens.
Confidence 55%
Strategy: Waldorf ot win
Moonee Valley Race 2
Happy to sit and watch. Mattan looks progressive enough on first up run and barrier 3 today.
Comments: Pass!
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Mattan to Win
Moonee Valley Race 3
Streets of Seattle: Up to his distance today. Just ignore last start and look to two back run when ran on well enough. Off 59kg down into this class today, he has won 5 placed 5 from 17 at distance. I suspect they will take a sit on her closer to 3/4 back today as they pushed a little too hard early last start. She will look gone at the turn, she always looks gone at the turn, but she has to be hard ridden to get the best out of her. I think Moloney rode her well two back and she can go well.
Xaar Best: Not sure she is aimed at this. Never won 2nd up previously but runs ok at distance. Weighted ok… not the worst.
Jelly Baby: 4kg better off today. Just ignore last start run and rate on two back.. not sure she is good enough for this on first up but if improvement is there she could go well…
You’re Discreet: Back up to a better distance but first three runs have been horrid. No thanks.
Baqaat: Not sure what to make of last start run.. fell out real quick… but tempo was on. Not that great in at weights.
Red Thriller: Two runs this prep have been good. Up to a more suitable distance today… weighted ok but is she good enough for this? Not sure. Jury is out.
Statute: Not sure what to make of her.. If she can control the pace out front.. get some easy sectionals.. based on last starts… she could go close?
Soul Glo: Hard to see going close on previous form this prep.
Comments: With the scratchings of the $1.33 favourite, this race is wide open. Streets of Seattle and Statute the stand outs
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Small win bets on Streets of Seattle and Statute.. place bet on either of those aren’t bad either.
Moonee Valley Race 4
Regimental Pride: Didn’t show much first up and if you rate on last prep, he wasn’t going close. Back in class today but looks outclassed.
Moparee: Maiden winner to 2YO placing at Caulfield to a 2YO-SWP win at Flemington from the front. Maps to lead this up today and looks weighted well. 3YO Magnus.. HELLO!
Trevinder: Raced back in race unexpectedly last start. Equal class today. Barrier 1 and he will push forward. Ran on very well last start. Could surprise.
Lucky Striker: Maiden only winner first up today. Can’t see in this class… but if money comes hard, don’t dismiss.
Register: Two back won by 7 lengths with rider losing whip. Just ignore the 3YO-SWP run due to track condition. If reproduces two back run from barrier 2, go very close.
Typhoon Su: First up run ran nearly 2 seconds slowly than last start run out the front and got run down.. but last start was better suited by a faster pace and just got there. Will be putting on some pace. Not the worst here. Could go close or at least place.
Mal’s Pride: Maiden only winner. Didn’t go close last prep in much worse races. Hard to have.
Donna Madeira: Won a 900m first up two preps back.. showed nothing first up this prep.
Zeffiretta: Just ignore last start when had no luck. Will have the pace on and weighted well. Can go well.
Comments: About half the field can win this one so I wouldn’t be jumping into any of these with any great confidence without getting value.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Register on the E/W. Small win bet Zeffiretta.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Kaiser Sun ran on well last start in listed grade at Flemington just not getting to the line ridden on the poorly ground that day. Last three wins have been super impressive and from barrier 3 is the key front runners in the race. 58kg. Weighted to win. Overs at the price.
King Cotton missed the start first up and was not going to get close after that. Last win was at course and distance but has never won 2nd up previously. Weighted fairly.
Magnus Reign keeps poping up for wins this prep and keeps running well. Two from two this prep at course and distance and weight isn’t an issue. Will be coming from far back.
Impulse Buy’s form lines don’t look strong enough for this. On Strike much better rated today.
Schumacher won well enough two back at course and distance but failed last start down the straight. Back to the valley from a wide gate and maps to position well if gets in. Can run well.
On Strike is a danger to Kaiser Sun on form and times. Last three runs all had merit and weighted nicely today with the claim. From barrier 2 expect him to get the back of the fav.
Johnnydrama only ran on fairly first up and then second up showed nothing. Hard to have.
Black Jack Boy ran well three back at course and distance and on four back run is weighted well compared to Magnus Reign. Count last start as ok form. Could run well at weights.
Paaratte Pat is very hard to catch. He puts in a good run or two then falls away then gets back in. Schumacher and Magnus Reign have both had his measure this prep but last start was arguably his best run yet. Weighted ok.
Comments: Kaiser Sun is a jet. No competition for the lead today.. and even if he misses the start, he has options from the gate which is what you want. Weighted to win today and wins this more than 50% of the time on my ratings, so the price is value.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 7, 9
Strategy: Kaiser Sun to win
Moonee Valley Race 6
Thubiaan: Went close behind Anudjawun four runs back then nothing since. Not sure what that says. Never missed a place from 3 goes at track. Maps well.
Altonio: Good run last start without impressing. Last two runs at this distance haven’t been his best. Not sure if he is suited to distance.
Master’s Degree: The one to beat clearly. Down 3.5kg today up in class, led start to finish last start and two back while only just getting run down two back.
Star of Jeune: Maps to take a sit. Weighted well. 2.5L winner last start in easier company over this similar distance.. can go well?
Handsome: Looks way over the odds today. Ignore last start run at Randwick and rate on four previous runs. Likes a good track and is weighted well.
Callmedan: Two very poor runs this prep but also some very good runs to go along with it. Weighted poorly today against Handsome on run here four back. Can go well.
Pauling: Ran well last start but couldn’t get close enough. Poorly weighted today against Master’s Degree.
Legal Rock: Went close last start at Randwick over 2500m and looks suited up in weight again today. Will sit forward.
Prospector: Average run last start but two back was ok. Not the worst here.
By His Design: Hard to have on form lines.
Comments: Hard to pass up this price for Master’s Degree at the weights! My only concern is the ground.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 8
Strategy: Master’s Degree to win.
Moonee Valley Race 7
Malabar Man: Ran a close 2nd in 3YO-LR then didn’t go very well in 3YO-GP1. First up won his maiden well enough and just got too far back last start off a only fair tempo… barrier hurts today but can run well. Looks classy enough.
Milensnake: Hasn’t shown us much this prep and doesn’t looks to be going well enough to win this.
Transfer Allowance: Ran home very well two back behind The Wingman at Caulfield… last start got caught too far back off a slow pace. This is his best chance for a long time.
Amaverde: Last two runs have been solid and looks like he has been set for 2000m this prep. Maps very well.
Bullion Express: On runs this prep and previous runs I’m not sure how he can win this today. Place at best.
Godeera: 2nd to Grand Slam Eagle last start and previous runs were both very solid. Can win and maps well.
Oceanographer: Suggest you ignore two back run and rate on previous four runs. Will go very close.
The Zero: First two runs had merit but do I think he is better than all of these? Not so sure.
Alexa Cee: Disappointed two back and lost as favourite last start. Equal weight today and expect a few to find too good again.
Persinette: Maiden only winner. Step up here.
Laconic Lad: Last few runs have been ‘ok’ without impressing me too much. Could run on but can’t see beating all on previous form.
Beneficiary: Didn’t measure up at distance two back so not sure how he will today.
Comments: Amaverde, Godeera and Oceanographer look the three to be around today for mine.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 7, 8
Strategy: Amaverde E/W. Smaller win bet Oceanographer
Moonee Valley Race 8
Rubyone: Just ignore last start and rate on two and three back runs. Can improve today but will need luck from barrier.
Royal Scandal: Ran on very well last start in harder class. Up to 57.5kg today but maps very well.
She’s Ellie: I thought last start she was very disappointing. Up 1.5kg today again and from barrier 6, will find it much hader to slot into a good position today. The key to her is she needs the ground to be dead to put in her best runs if you ask me.. she isn’t great on Good.. happy to avoid if we do get the Good ground expected.
Kinky Shot: Won three of five. First up and Oliver takes the ride. 59kg looks a little tough today but Oliver wouldn’t take the ride without knowing the horse is good. Been off nearly 2 years.
Sell In May: Won a very well rated Flemington race in 2011 then done nothing since in next 3 runs. Not sure what to make of her.
Suvarna: Ran on well last start and is down 1.5kg today. Never won from 8 tries at track. Will be leading around the turn and looks a good back to lay option.
Hotel Sierra: Weighted to win today. Went very close last start at Flemington. Two back won start to finish and can lead or take a sit (favoured that today). Hard to beat.
Villainous Vixen: Very progressive last start in easier company. Only down 1kg today but based on the time of that run, she can run well. I do think though that she is better suited on dead/slow?
Azzcool: I can’t see the step up today after not going better than 2L off the last 3 runs.
Tozzetti: Didn’t beat much first up but was an ok run. Can run ok but could i back? Not sure. Worth putting in the Quaddie.
Comments: Tough race to end the night!
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 5, 8, 9, 11, 13
Strategy: Royal Scandal E/W.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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