Welcome to The Profits form guide for Moonee Valley on Friday 28 February 2014. Last week at MV didn’t go exactly to plan with our confident best bet being beaten home by a 200-1 first up runner who improved several lengths.. but you can’t account for that and we took the right price. Earthquake capped a solid enough day on Saturday but once again our Best Bet found one too good. Back at it on Wednesday and we saw 4 of the 5 tips put up win which returned a solid 220+ for a 10er on each runner which added a bit to our bank and got the midweeks well ahead for 2014. I would note midweek is having stronger runners and better form lines which is increasing confidence. Onto tonight, It’s a fairly hard card on offer with a few stand outs.. the 955m race tonight is manic, please stay out! As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 2 Precious Gem
Next Best
Moonee Valley Race 7 Tackleberry
Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 7 Cavallo Nero
(Yes our Best Value is in the same race as our Next Best.. they are both way over their correct odds on our ratings).
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 10, 11
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 7, 9, 11
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 5, 7, 8, 10
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 4, 10, 11
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1
A race filled with non-winners. Maiden class suggests this obviously. Waldorf looks the stand out though on last few runs and looks due to break through. Place price looks fine in this if having a place.
Moonee Valley Race 2
Summerbliss is by far the best horse in this race. Grouped in Group 3 company last pre, also ran a strong 3rd in 3F-LR company last prep at course and distance. Weight looks a little harsh today from barrier 10, but claim to 59kg gives her the chance. Is her best at this ditsnace? No.
Grand Zee ran very well two back and then last start at Sandown went close as well. Up to 1600m today is the interesting part today. Not placed either tries in the past at distance but seems to be going well enough to last that extra 200m. Barrier is fine.
Precious Gem was very impressive last start at course and distance in similar class. Down 2kg and looks absolutely suited. Will be VERY hard to beat.
Kimiko looks the natural leader today. Weighted nicely today and will be able to control the tempo. If the rail is on, very hard to get past.
Comments: Hard to go past Precious Gem today. Very well suited.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Precious Gem to win.
Moonee Valley Race 3
Tough race to back anything. Four first up runners who all showed enough last prep to win this today combined with some very progressive horses. Leia’s time first up was solid and Register has to improve and get a better run today.. but if Menage A Charge brings her A game, she simply wins.
Strategy: Watch and note good runs to back them next start. Should be a strong enough form race going forward.
Moonee Valley Race 4
Five first up runners, three coming off wins and a second favourite comimg back in class looking well suited. This is one tough race.
Could never have too much confidence here but I think there is one at odds who hopefully has trained on and can produce an equal peak run which would go close today.
Apple Theif to me looks the one to beat down in the odds. First up run was special and then last start went very close over distance at Mornington in harder class. Down in class but 60k is the only issue. Sit much better today from barrier 3, but there is a fair bit of speed in this.
Schalot has come up favourite. The maiden win last prep was average at best to be honest and then didn’t show much to my eye in 3Y-GP3 4.5L back at course and distance. Weighted well enough but very short. Barrier should mean its hard for him to find trouble.
Last Sight looks the one to be around at odds to my eye. Last prep his seymour 1600m from the front in 1:16.5 seconds was very solid. Ignore the 1600m 3Y-GP2 run. Next start in a harder level of race was beaten by Slade De Cerisy but to be honest the horse isn’t suited by that distance. 1200m looks ideal today.
Comments: Can’t pass up Last Sight today.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Last Sight 2 units to place 1 unit to win
Moonee Valley Race 5
Magnus Reign: NEVER runs a bad race. Goes well off a big weight and most importantly goes very well at this course and distance. Goes well on Good or Dead ground. Will be sitting out the back but I like the booking of Newitt on him. Big overs for sure.
Fab Fevola: Had every chance last start at course and distance and wasn’t good enough. Times weren’t ground breaking either. Up 4.5kg today back to a winable grade but needs to find 2 lengths. Barrier helps today.
Schumacher: Another awkward barrier for him. Last start beaten by a good horse when blocked for runs. Weighted well enough but barrier does hurt. Can win.
Athenian Girl: Didn’t give her enough respect last start and cost us the $$$ after she was downgraded from 2nd to 3rd pick. Tempo suited and hit the line hard. Equal class today but will be further back than you really want to be with so many talented swoopers. Can win but needs to improve again.
Beauty Cash: Ran very well last start. Didn’t get a run at the right time in MUCH harder company. Claim takes him down to 54kg today, so only up 1kg is big, very big. Maps well from barrier 4 today and most importantly shouldn’t get trapped on the rail. Rates to go close.
Black Jack Boy: Blocked for run at a critical stage last start but probably wasn’t going to win. Weighted well again today but will be coming from very far back.. others probably better swoopers?
Bloomingdale Miss: Showed last prep that she is a serious horse measuring up in 3YOF class. WAY back in class today and 55kg. Looks over the odds for sure, but hasn’t been backed which suggests needs the run.
Words Are Weapons: Last two runs have been very poor. Did pull up lame last start. Down to 52kg today, off her best this prep can run well.
Corstons Beau: Barrier 1, 53kg, Katie M, Leader. Will take a lot out of first up run and improve for that run coming back today. Looks a top chance.
Tuffenup Princess: Runs this prep 3 wins for 3 goes and fair for them to chuck her up in this grade. But it has to be considered that she won from the front and from the back this prep.
Tansy: Solid 7L win two back. Just snuck home last start. Looks progressive but this grade? I just can’t have him ahead of a few others here.
Comments: How can you bet here? Let’s be serious. Sure, you are getting a great price for your runner, but unless you have some super secret inside word and know it can be trusted, I can’t see how investing money in this race is profitable in the long turn.
Confidence None
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 10, 11
Strategy: Have a drink or two and enjoy a close race.
Moonee Valley Race 6
Beauty Perception: Good run all things considered first up in Aus, but is horriblely in at the weights today. Hard to have.
Beliveau: Ran very well last start behind Use The Lot at Caulfield and on breeding looks to be wanting the distance. Ran 0.2L behind Signoff two back and can run a similar race today. Big chance.
Jelly Baby: Can’t be ignored today but at same time, 7 tries at this course for 0 places. Goes well enough at this distance.
Settlers Way: You know I like him. He ran well enough last start but just found a progressive type who was too good. Beliveau beat him home last start they met only just, but at weights look equal today. It’s really about who handles the step up in distance today really… but to be the difference today is there is no pace in the race outside of Settlers Way. Rodd can crawl on him out front, control the race and win.
Xaar Best: How has she returned? Just scrap last start and look to two back. Ran very well and up to 2500m suits very very well. Weighted nicely and looks a chance at odds. Maps to take a sit outside the fav.
Mariner: Slowly away last prep which cost him any chance. Run three back was eye-catching in similar class. Up to 2500m couldn’t hurt. Will be ridden for luck on the rail. Can go close.
Zataglio: CL1 win to this class? Waller runner so anything is possible but I’m very happy to take him on. Maps well enough though.
Oceanographer: Blocked blocked blocked in much easier company last start. Up to 2500m doesn’t seem to suit if you ask me.. weighted only fairly against Settlers Way either. Don’t dismiss.
Purrsistency Pays: Ran ok last start at course and distance. Can improve but others look better in to me.
By His Design: Looks value based on last start run. Equal weight today down in class.
Luck’s A Fortune: Gold to Go proved the form isn’t that bad. Can run ok.
Comments: I think there are five key chances here… but I also feel that this race is set up for Settler’s Way due to no pace being in the race. There are some sensational odds on over.. but I can’t go past Settler’s Way at the odds either. They look overs due to the speed.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 7, 9, 11
Strategy: Settler’s Way to win. Smaller win bet By His Design.
Moonee Valley Race 7
Agister: Sent over to Adelaide for an easy kill first up. Up 4kg today after claims. Have to respect the horse today. Has Class. Maps to get a forward run but a chance of getting caught out wide.
Freereturn: Wasn’t the same horse last prep and first up run showed us nothing. I can’t have.
Elusive Touch: Shown nothing this prep. No thanks.
Corviade: Weighted poorly today off last start run. Can’t have.
Hosting: Hard to ignore the close run in Group 2 company last prep. Runs very well first up and has won 2 from 3 at distance. Will sit a fair way back but will be hitting that line very hard.
King Buddy: Up in class last two runs has been found out in this class. Can run well today but wide barrier means way way back and weighted poorly against others.
Mandla: Giving 5kg to Cavallo Nero and 1.5kg to Tackleberry today. He is good enough to do this IMO on last start run, but he will burn it early to get a good position. Can’t be ignored.
Cavallo Nero: Barrier 1 today works in his favour. They will position further forward today and clearly they will ride for luck. Off 52.5kg today down 3kg, Mandla is up 2kg today. He needs luck but he rates very well. Important point to realise… he was 2nd up and improved last start.. 3rd up he will be even better.. he was $10 last week and Mandla $4.5… he is 5kg better off today for a 1.3L defeat, yet Mandla is the same price today and Cavallo Nero is $5 higher in odds. Clear value today.
Draw Forward: Goes well enough first up but only 1 of 5 wins have come first up. Hasn’t run back in this class for a long while… loves this track is the key. Barrier is the issue.
Tackleberry: Maps to lead today and barrier 3 suits. 1.5kg better off than Mandla today and this is Mooneey Valley so the rail will be hot. Looks one of the top chances.
Tanjil: Last two runs shown me nothing to suggest even back in class today that we can expect to see him win.
Big Buddie: Do you ignore last start and look to two back? Nope just ignore him again today.
Comments: I think considering the draw you have to take Mandla on at the price today. Cavallo Nero is HUGE overs but needs luck in running. Tackleberry is weighted and maps to win today.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 5, 7, 8, 10
Strategy: Tackleberry to win. E/W bet as well on Cavallo Nero.
Moonee Valley Race 8
Serene Tanie: Placed once from 7 goes at distance. Never won first up. Enough said. Last win 2011.
Beach Front: Well beaten over 950m last start. Up to 1000m today but up 5.5kg tonight. Barrier 12 hurts.. will they push forward? I don’t think so. Prefer at 1200m.
Paparazzi Dreamer: Hasn’t shown us anything close to winning this recently. Happy to avoid.
Hotel Sierra: Continues to run very well. Is the type of horse who is consistantly running well.. Worst result last 5 runs 1L 2nd (well did have a 0.5L 3rd.. but you know what I mean). Weighted well again and most importantly maps well.
Lateva: Can you forgive last start? Up 5kg today for that poor run. I can’t forgive.
Imprimis: Won well enough last start on a leader biased track at Pakenham. Can I have today? Not in this class unless there is bias.
Zarzing: Never won first up but never run a bad race either. Best has been on Heavy but fine on dead/good also. Outclassed IMO.
The Blonde Alibi: Weighted better than Valuable Star today significantly. Probably overs.
Valuable Star: Gone close every run this prep and times are sound enough. Is she good enough for this though? Not so sure.
Easy to Look At: Hard to have on last few runs. Needs to improve 3L today.
Comments: Hotel Sierra certainly goes close once again today and if doesn’t act like a cat again, wins…. Maps perfectly. A few value runners in the Quaddie.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 4, 10, 11
Strategy: Hotel Sierra to win.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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