Welcome to The Profits form guide for Moonee Valley on 20 November 2014. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 5 Fab Fevola to place
Next Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 7 Holy Cow to win
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Fab Fevola: Just ignore last start at Flemington when not suited facing the breeze. Two back run at course and distance was very impressive. A bit of rain around and will appreciate a good or wet track.. I think some of his best runs have actually been on dead slow surfaces. Maps to get the lead on his early speed even from barrier. Huge price.
Gallant Harmony: Finished off last prep with two strong runs in much easier class. Was lengths off the top class last prep though on form and at 58kg, have to respect but take on first up.
Paaratte Pat: Very good horse once. Age is catching up to him? Goes well at this distance.
Scelto: Not a sprinter. No thanks.
Stratumsphere: Was racing in class that suited last prep. Step up here to win. Not for mine.
Hotel Sierra: Meets Sweet Emily 2kg better at weights. Winning chance and fitter 2nd up.
Johnnydrama: Doesn’t win out of his class and last win was last year on heavy. 0 places from 5 runs at track.
Run Cannon Run: Ran quite well last start at course and distance and weighted as well today. Pushing forward from barrier and have to respect. Best shown on good tracks.
Pretty Possum: Ran 2nd las tprep to Gallant Harmony and meets 4kg better off today for 2.5L defeat. First up. Likes it wet or dry.
Sweet Emily: Strong win first up and backed up that run just getting the win last start. Giving weight today to others the issue.. Only start on slow didn’t handle it.
Talbanga: Had his chances first up and ran quite well.. Have to improve on that though.
Ethicist: Showed nothing first up. Hard to have.
Comments: Interesting speed map today. I’m going to take on Gallant Harmony and Pretty Possum form here. Fab Fevola, Hotel Sierra, Run Cannon Run and Sweet Emily look the key 4 chances in the race. Hotel Sierra’s map today is very tricky. Could potentially get caught 3-wide. Weighted better today but best runs have been on Good tracks.. will we really get a true good? Run Cannon Run is a big price today but has shown best on Good tracks always. I’m just not sure he has the class. Sweet Emily isn’t weighted very well today against Hotel Sierra but has the most ability considering how she missed the start last run and still won well. Fab Fevola is the key danger to Sweet Emily today at a massive price. Run two back behind Diamond Oasis is enough to win this.
Confident: 80%
Strategy: Fab Fevola 5 units to place 2 units to win. If betting to only win, bet Fab Fevola + Sweet Emily.
Moonee Valley Race 7
Young Nicola: Won two of last three races so can’t exactly dismiss off the 57.5kg here. Barrier hurts though.
Swinging Soldier: Ran home well enough last start over in Adelaide but was well beaten by Atlanta Dream. No trick pony, goes back.
Lady Tatia: Showed that she had ability last prep. Just beaten first up in similar grade over 1400m at Sale. Weighted well enough to run well. Barrier 3… but can’t see her getting close to the lead today.
Atlanta Dream: Good win last start at Morphetville. Continues to improve and weighted okay.. but has to improve. Needs it dead.
Fantome Gris: Every chance last two runs. Back in class so has improvement.
Lilly Dazzler: Blocked for run last start at critical stage when ran 3rd to Young Nicola. Maps well from barrier 1.
Barely a Scent: Continues to improve with every run. Much easier race than this last two though. Has to improve but has shown ability.
Holy Cow: Pushed to lead last start at course and distance and won very from out the front putting on a hot tempo and beating them down. Beriman is one of my favourite jockeys at this course and she keeps the ride claiming 2kg on a mare that ran 0.4L 4th in 3F-LR grade from the back. Not exactly sure where they will sit today, but my gut says they do try and lead and she is very hard to beat doing this. 0/0 from 2 goes on dead, but peak run as 3YO was on a dead track, so don’t let it put you off.
Suspecious Minds: Good win in much easier class last start. Has ability. Don’t dismiss.
Never Give An Inch: Last two runs have been good, but has to improve lengths today.
Comments: Very impressed with what I saw last start from Holy Cow and this is her distance. Rates to win and will have every chance from position in running.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Back Holy Cow to win
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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