Welcome to The Profits form guide for Melbourne Cup Day on 4 November 2014. Derby Day was tough for every tipster around, and we were also one of them to have no joy. Our Best Value was very unlucky not to win, simply getting out too late with the run and even more unlucky not to even place for us. That’s racing and nothing went our way in any of the races. Hopefully we get a bit of luck today and can nail a few winners on top. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Melbourne Best Bet
Flemington Race 3 Order of the Sun
Got done last week in the Bendigo Cup but that was solely down to the ride, not the horse. I expect the wind to be helping leaders when Race 3 is run and won today and with a Good surface on offer, in a class of race which is actually lesser than what was faced at Bendigo, i’m very keen on the price on offer today.
Melbourne Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 5 Law
Unlucky second at the valley on Cox Plate day but that helped us as we were on the winner. Both had very good runs and the stable really rate Law highly. Looks the standout form horse in the race and the price being bet is reasonable for backing today.
Melbourne Best Value
Flemington Race 10 Griante
Finding it hard to pass up the price on offer today for Griante. Progressive type who pulled up with Thumps last start. Horses who pull up with thumps after going around as favourite or close to generally return to peak fitness the next start from my records and i’m confident we are getting overs today. Really respect this horse.
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Flemington MAIN Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 7, 11, 14, 22
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 8, 9, 13, 16, 17
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 10, 11, 18, 24
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 5, 9, 14, 16, 17, 19
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1
Mihalic: Very good win first up down the straight and expect her to go onwards and upwards from that win. Barrier suits as will be in the right side of the track. Big chance.
Pierrette: Good win at Randwick from start to finish off 52.5kg. Up 3kg here today and up in class.. have to respect.. but headwind could be an issue.
Miss Idyllic: Ran well enough first up at Caulfield but was well beaten. Has the ability but others preferred on formlines.
Miss Loren: Ran third behind Miss Idyllic last start at Caulfield. Had every chance from position in running and hard to see where the big improvement comes from second up.
Poppi Rox: Went around 100-1 first up and ran like it. No thanks on that!
Cullemmy’s Diamond: Did a little bit wrong last start behind Miss Idyllic and Miss Loren. Has improvement on that run to come.
Results: Copped a fair bit of issues in running last start but ran well enough at big odds. Decent price again today and looks a minor chance.
Dagny: Very green first run and down the straight again today I wouldn’t expect that to be changing. Showed enough ability to suggest could improve… but hard to back a horse that is still learning down the straight.
Hello Hornsby: Bucked at start and just missed when running 2nd. Did a lot wrong. Much harder here.
Antelucan: Market is only guide. No trials. Key stable.
Charlie’s Dream: Fair enough trial. Market guide.
Comprende: Very good trial win over in Adelaide. Hasn’t been missed in market.
Lady Espirit: Fair trial. Market guide.
The Grey Flash: Not a great trial. Market guide.
Thurlow: Fair enough trial. Market guide.
Zarabeel: No trials. Market only guide.
Comments: It would be un-Australian to tell you to not have a bet or beer at 10.30am on a Tuesday. Just don’t bet much.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Mihalic to place.
Flemington Race 2
Girl In Flight: Simply not suited last start at Caulfield off a slow tempo set up front. Ran home well enough. Up in distance here today should suit, but similar class and top weight is an issue. Respect as a solid chance.
Zoomania: Looks to be a leader in the race, down from Doomben after a win at similar distance in easier company… time set out front was very solid. Will be hard into the headwind today but form looks sound enough.
Spirit of Heaven: Just forget she went around last start at Caulfield when found trouble. Barrier 4 today, she will need luck again to get out at the right time, but has the ability to chase all these home and beat them. Massive issue is 5 runs on Good tracks for 0 placings.. but went close 2 back. Would love a small shower before Race 2 to increase confidence in her.
Are There Any: Maps to sit just off the leader. First two runs in were solid enough but last start poor at Seymour. Up to 1700m suits but this is a step up in class again and needs to have found another gear with the month between runs.
Precious Gem: Always runs a very good race from out the back. Could be suited by the pace here today and will have every chance on the long straight to wind up and beat them.
Dig A Pony: Has been crying out for the distance and Flemington. Track specialist who has improved all 3 runs in this prep and looks to be ready to peak. Big chance.. would love some sting out of the ground with a small shower as 0 placing from 5 starts on good tracks.
Khutulun: Continues to go from strength to strength and is the type of runner who loves a good wind up straight. Out to 1700m is ideal considering 2nd to Sonntag last prep over 2000m. Undefeated on a dead surface (4/4) while runs well on Good, has never won on it. Key is needs a bit of early rain to affect track. Goes well.
Amanpour: Outclassed all last prep. Ran and won from start to finish in much easier last start at Randwick. Has to find much more here.
Danish Whiskey: A horse similar to Bonaria, you can forgive her for all her runs this prep and suggest she should have gone close to winning a few. Back to 1700m is ideal and has a very good record at the track and also on Good surfaces. Running well enough to threaten.
Blanket Bay: A little unlucky two back at Caulfield but last start well beaten. Hard to see her getting the win up in this distance today at this class without a lot of luck.
Let’s Be A Star: Two poor runs after a good win three back at Mornington. Hard to rate on recent form.
Chi Gong: Tassy horse. Won in much easier than this. Hard to see measuring up to these!
Entertains: Sydney raider. progressed from maiden win to two wins since at Hawksbury and Randwick. Strong enough wins but has to find much more today to beat all these.
She’s Pretentious: Looked a promising type but hasn’t come on as well as expected. Won last start but these are two classes above those.
Comments: Girl in Flight, Spirit of Heaven, Precious Gem, Dig a Pony, Khutulun and Danish Whiskey are the six runners that stand out here. Danish Whiskey is the value in the race and will appreciate the good going. Spirit of Heaven, Dig A Pony and Khutulun are all yet to record a win on Good surfaces from 3+ goes each. Precious Gem will be very far back in running but likes any surface while Girl in Flight is hard to rate but will enjoy a good surface and maps okay. Did enough last start behind Sweet Idea to be winning here.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Girl in Flight to win. Smaller bet Danish Whiskey
Flemington Race 3
Black Tycoon: Hasn’t run within 7 lenghts all prep. No thanks.
Renew: Had every chance both runs this prep and failed to measure up. Hard to see the improvement.
Order of the Sun: Very disappointing last start at Bendigo when ridden incorrectly. Schofield goes onboard today and only knows one way to ride, never say die. This is actually an easier race on paper and much better price at weights. Only issue is wind… but at this time during the day I believe it will be favouring him. Respect.
Distillation: Hard to see a place being delivered on current form. No for me.
Grand Marshall: Well beaten two back by Order of the Sun. Then won well last start at Rosehill. Respect but have to think at the weights can’t turn it around on order of the sun.
Goldoni: Wasn’t won since 2012. Hasn’t shown enough the last four runs to suggest at the weights up in this class that he will be winning. Poor barrier.
Aggregator: Continues to run well but last start was a step backwards. Weighted much better here but has to find a lot more than that. Has ability.
Anudjawun: Well outclassed last start but two back at course and similar distance ran 3rd to Who Shot TheBarman. Has placed 6 from 10 at track. Respect ability on the track.
Clear Direction: Inconsistent. Runs well without winning. Up in distance may help but best seen on dead tracks.
Laconic Lad: Step up in distance did the trick last start at Moonee Valley. Wide barrier hurts. Have to respect that he knows how to stay.
Don Doremo: Back in class the last few runs has been better but continues to just win or find one too good. Will appreciate step up in distance.
Waltzing to Win: Ran well enough 4th to Who Shot TheBarman four runs back but nothing since apart from a CL2 win in Adelaide. Not sure I can respect the form enough to win this.
Luck’s A Fortune: Had every chance last start at Caulfield but just wasn’t good enough to beat them. Turned form around but has to improve again.
Beauty Preception: Ran well last start at Geelong but beaten well by 2 horses with 1 in this race. Can’t see the form reversal.
Fledged: Blocked for runs last start at Caulfield… but last two runs haven’t been good enough to win this? Did show in UK a very good win over 2800 but only a 4 horse race.
Rebel Rising: Won two in a row and then last start up in distance couldn’t come from the back at Moonee Valley. Has to find much more.
Surging Wave: Showed ability last prep but nothing this prep. Couldn’t have.
Back to Abilene: Form lines make it hard to suggest he has any chance to even place here. About 2 lengths off it at least.
Weekend Winner: CL1 winner in Tasmania and then beaten in BM-82 class by Lingo who isn’t this class. Hard to have.
Comments: There is a lack of class in this race and Order of the Sun has the ability to blow them all away with the right ride.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Order of the Sun
Flemington Race 4
Free of Doubt: Very good win three back and then shown nothing since. Have to suspect that was a peak run and first up didn’t show enough to suggest it occurs here.
The Quarterback: Very good win last start but didn’t beat much. Up in weight but similarish class today. Good horse and 3YO winner… respect.
Taiyoo: Not sure what to make of first up. Was out the back which isn’t his racing style. Good track which suits and back to 1400m… best over further though.
Al Aneed: Beat The Quaterback two back but found one better last start in Written Up. Best shown on wetter.
Spy Decoder: Way back in class last start ran very well to win at Randwick. Never won on a Good track or even placed is the big issue but good barrier and looks a decent horse on ratings.
Chestnut Charlie: Strong times and win two back over in Adelaide. Last start overraced though and was disappointing. Have to turn that form around but has ability.
Double Dee: Ran well enough last start but has been far off both runs since running 2nd at Mornington. Form not good enough on ratings.
Creance: Lost as $1.8 and $1.5 favourite last two runs over in Adelaide. Up in class here today but weighted well. Has ability.
Gracious Prospect: Very good win first up at Cranbourne. Up to 1400m suited and has won previously at the track. Best two recent runs have been on good surfaces. Will sit close to speed or just off it. Has the ability to win this.
Baligari: Very good runs last prep and peaked for some very good runs. Second up run over in Adelaide this prep won nicely… but has to step up again and barrier makes it hard.
Ripple Effect: Very poor first up. Previous prep ran some ok races but not up to this grade to win on those runs.
General Groove: Thought he would measure up in BM-70 class down in grade but last three runs has been well beaten. Not the same horse as last prep even with the win last start.
Reddamour: Running in lesser grade the past few runs, has been ok without impressing. Had every chance really and this is much harder.
Tiny’s Legacy: Never placed first or second up in past and first up run was poor. Hard to rate.
Bon Rocket: Good win last start at Cranbourne over Floatmyboat and two back a close 5th to Bel Seal. Decent horse but hasn’t been able to make the step up to this grade just yet.
Kirani: Continues to improve this prep Last start at Cranbourne beat Orion by 2.3L who has won since. Didn’t beat much that is for sure but 6.5kg better off here today.. have to suggest can improve onwards.
Tips and Beers: Never placed on a Good track. Has run ok in this class previously but needs to find about 3 lengths on first up run.
Flow Meter: Couldn’t win R-68 last pre or first up this prep. Hard to see placing.
Comments: There isn’t much class in this race and I have to go with the potential. The Quarterback is the obvious top pick while Gracious Prospect can continue to improve. Kirani looks the value on the first two runs this prep.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: The Quarterback to win. Smaller bet on Kirani.
Flemington Race 5
Law: Had his chance last start at Moonee Valley and just missed. Back to 1000m should actually suit very well and barrier is very good also with strong jockey. Looks suited to win.
Risen From Doubt: Had every chance last start but wasn’t good enough. Will improve back to 1000m and down the straight i’d say, but does have to find much more.
I Am The General: Looked a decent type last prep but hasn’t come on this prep. Not winning this.
Rough Justice: Surprise start to finish winner at Caulfield in very strong fashion last start. Has to improve again to win this and down the straight an issue for mine.
Thief of Hearts: Good win first up in 3YO class and then found two too good the last two runs. Hard to suggest turns around the form on those runs. Back to 1000m is the only thing in his favour.
Forgive and Forget: Good run 4th to Chivalry three runs back and then shown absolutely nothing since. Back to 1000m where he has won previously down the straight… stab in the dark that may pay off? Don’t dismiss.
Reigning Meteor: BM-64 winner in the country.. just last start. Not up to this class on Good track.
Alaska: Decent 2YO runs last prep but showed absolutely nothing last start at Mornington. 1000m a concern down the straight.
Toothless: Showed nothing last prep. Started off with a decent win first up but times don’t stack up to this.
Recalculate: Maiden winner on slow track. Won well though. 2YO run was decent also at Sandown. Not sure what to make of him.
Lord Barrington: Can’t win based on recent form at Moe or Bendigo.
Bel Vuitton: Finally got the maiden after four attempts. Not the best horse in this race based on those runs.
Nightcraft: Fell in last start in a maiden at Geelong. Been for a spell and back again. Must have found lengths and lengths.
Luxembourg: Average maiden win in slow time and wasn’t for much cash. Happy to oppose.
Ms Mazetti: 2YO winner at Caulfield last prep which is hard to fault. Go well at this distance but a query down the straight.. weighted very well today.
Empress O’Reilly: Won very well in similar class at 2 then showed nothing since. No thanks.
Puzzle: Just ignore last run of last prep. Ran favourite against Crafty and ran 2nd to the horse. Maiden only winner but have to respect.
Sebring Lane: Flashed home but not good enough first up and then last start not good enough either. Doesn’t look top class.
Comments: I’m big on law here today. He is ready to win and Waller has a big opinion of the horse. Very unlucky not to win last start at MV and they spaced 3rd. Maps well.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Law to win.
Flemington Race 6
London Lolly: had every chance the last four runs this prep and just hasn’t measured up in harder company. This is back down in class if we are to rate the horses here… but she has to find another gear that she hasn’t shown this prep.
Wine Tales: Never runs a bad race and a well rated horse. Last start in similar company won nicely up at Rosehill. Back to a longer straight may see her slightly exposed, but barrier 4 gives her every chance.
Hijack Hussy: 3YO form up in Queensland with a win last start at Gold Coast in strong times. Never runs a bad race and have to respect this filly.
Sea Spray: Progressive type who got the win last start at Caulfield with a strong ride. Form out of that race hasn’t exactly panned out but have to believe she is a strong chance here.
Fitocracy: Adelaide runner who hasn’t won this prep. Continues to run well but another step up hard to see the form stacking up.
Wroclaw: Couldn’t win a maiden first up but next start won.. just. Hard to see the additional step up in class to beat all of these.
Feels Like Home: Both runs this prep showed nothing to suggest warranting our money. Last prep was a decent type as well.
Coachella: NZ runner who broke her maiden finally over here first up. Last start beaten by easier types. Need to improve onwards to place.
Cathy’s Mark: Progressive type with some form lines that are hard to ignore. Last start pulled up with Thumps yet still ran well behind Bondeiger. But back to 1400m from 1600m a little strange.. form has to be respected.
Shacarde: Good run 3rd to Sea Spray last start at Caulfield. Meets worse at weights though. Need improvement.
Miss Mayflower: Got her maiden at Seymour last start. This is much harder. Has to find lengths.
Manageress: Magnus maiden winner. Both runs were solid without impressing times wise. Looks tough today.
Fitna: 5L maiden winner and ran 2nd to magicool previous run which is pretty decent form now. Price Yard. Oliver onboard… have to respect that!
Solar Burst: Got the win last start in a maiden race but times were pretty crappy and can’t see them holding up in this.
Blackjack Bella: Not the worst maiden win last start. Has ability but will need time and probably better over shorter.
Piaminx: Couldn’t win maiden first up. Did have excuses… Williams takes ride.
Comments: A tough race to judge. Wine Tales has every right to be favourite today and the 2nd to Delectation looks very good after we saw that horse run 2nd in the straight race. It’s hard to suggest she can’t beat all of these if she gets her chance in the straight. Sea Spray has to be respected and will be there hitting the line while Fitna could be anything.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Wine Tales to win.
Flemington Race 7 – Melbourne Cup
#1 Admire Rakti – Barrier 8
Coming off an outstanding Caulfield Cup win when travelled the second widest of the lot. Very good barrier today coming out of 8 and a lack of inside speed will mean he has every chance to be positioned positively in the race say midfield or just slightly off. Failed last start over 3200m but previous run was 2nd to Gold Ship who is a benchmark horse over in Japan. Did win a very good race over 3400m 3 preps back also. Only penalised 0.5kg the key here as well for that Caulfield Cup run. Respect this class.
Pros: In-form, kept fresh since CC run, top-class jockey, good barrier
Cons: Top weight (last seven top weights have failed to place), they get more strung out at Flemington than Caulfield
#2 Cavalryman – Barrier 3
A 9 year-old now, you would think his best may be behind him… but his form doesn’t read that way. I keep looking back to that massive win over at Meydan back in March and can see him running a race here if he reproduces that form. It was a massive 5.5 length win and then just lost the next start. Returned last prep with a strong Newmarket win over Hillstar and Pehter’s Moon who have backed up that form and then next start beat Ahzeemah and Brown Panther who also backed up the form.. over 3200m. The end of the prep was a little disappointing 4th… but his last two preps his best rating runs for mine have been first up and keeping him fresh today is key. Craig Williams goes onboard and barrier 3, expect him to get back in the running and hit the line hard.
Pros: Peak rating would have him going close, Good barrier, jockey
Cons: Old, Has to peak, Need luck with runs
#3 Fawkner – Barrier 9
All three runs this prep have been tough and super. 0.1L defeat first up, strong win second up and then 0.2L 2nd in the Cox Plate.. he just keeps delivering. Won’t be sitting last this year and expect him to be on the speed. Barrier 9 gives him every chance to get the best run possible this year and with a distinct lack of tempo in the race, expect him to have every chance from sitting in the top 10 in running. Huge chance.
Pros: Fit, Maps forward, Will stay, class
Cons: Not run beyond 2040m this prep
#4 Red Cadeaux – Barrier 15
Loves running in Australia and at Flemington. Run second in this race twice and his form last prep didn’t suggest a run like that would occur off the 56.5kg weight. Form since has steadily gone downhill. Best run was a 4th to Seismos and Willing Foe at Newbury over 2670m (hit front and fell out of it final 100m). Was well beaten over in Kyoto as well and also at Meydan. A win here would complete a fairy-tale with the horse, but at the current odds, I think he represents significant unders.
Pros: Loves Flemington and proven in this distance, Repeat of last years run goes close. Better weighted this year
Cons: 9YO, Form hasn’t been good enough since last run here
#5 Protectionist – Barrier 11
An out and out stayer, Protectionist’s previous run before heading to Australia was a 3000m Heavy track win beating some good horses. He knows how to carry weight having been 58kg the last 7 runs. His first up run in the Herbert Power was eye-catching with some lightning sectionals to the line off the 59kg. Actually meets Signoff better at the weights today and will be significantly improving with the step up to 3200m from the 2400m there. My only issue with this horse is whether he is good enough this time around to beat the best out here on a dry surface. I can’t poke any holes in the horses dr track form, but up until last start in France, he hadn’t beaten any horse you can really call a star, and even then, neither could you with that race in France. You have to respect him, but you also have to consider who he has been racing against and the odds offered today.
Pros: Stayer, Sit midfield, Good barrier
Cons: First time in this top class, Good surface, Weight
#6 Sea Moon – Barrier 18
A 7YO now, his best days seem to be behind him. His best win was a 3L defeat of Dunaden in 3rd and 4L defeat of Red Cadeaux in 4th over at Ascot. First prep in Aus he was a little disappointing outside of his Herby Power win and a 0.1L 2nd to Araldo the previous run at Flemington. First up run was solid enough without impressing… but he was beaten by Anudjawun! Excuses last start in Caulfield Cup when pulled up with issues. I can’t see it here, past ratings suggest he can if he peaks, but no sign of that for the last two years.
Pros: Has rated high enough in past to win. Lack of speed in race means should be able to push forward.
Cons: Hasn’t rated high enough in past two years. Shown little this prep. Wide barrier.
#7 Seismos – Barrier 1
Just a simple forgive run first up. He is an out and out stayer who will give you solid sectionals, but won’t be suited by a medium tempo and sprint. That is what we had in the Caulfield Cup, they crawled the first 1200m and it just didn’t suit him. Rate on his best runs which I would suggest were on a Dead track. Barrier 1 means he will be able to push up and get a good spot but they HAVE to get off the rails and HAS to have a tough staying test the final 1000m. I think he is a must include in exotics.
Pros: Forward position. Should handle distance.
Cons: Ratings not good enough on past 6 runs. Need to jump well from barrier.
#8 Junoob – Barrier 7
What can we make of the Caulfield Cup run? I thought he was in the perfect position considering the lack of tempo. Two back won the Metrop beating home Opinion and Araldo with Araldo rating very well in the CC. Continues to run well this prep and improve and i’d just forget the Cup run. Issue is never really seen at this distance. Barrier 7 is key to giving him a chance.
Pros: G2 and G1 wins heading into last start. Strong record on Good or Dead. Appreciates a strong tempo.
Cons: Concerns over staying 3200m. Disappointing Cup run.
#9 Royal Diamond – Barrier 6
Last win was October 2013 over this distance at Ascot. Has run two seconds since, both to Leading Light. Last start in the Irish St Leder ran 6th by 12L. Hard to see the form stacking up enough for him to win this even at the weights.
Pros: Will stay the trip and has never missed a place from 3 starts at distance.
Cons: Ratings don’t have him finishing top 3, Handles any surface
#10 Gatewood – Barrier 22
Hasn’t missed a place in his last 10 races. Won on all types of surfaces and best has been shown over the 2400m distance. Up in trip today is a query, but as a Galileo you have to assume he will be able to stay with no issues. Has some strong enough form lines from last prep with wins over Pether’s Moon and Kelinni and a close 2nd to Sheikhzayedroad. This is certainly a step up in class, but the run 2nd over in France last start proved that he has the ability this prep and is running in career best form. Will be sitting midfield and a further forward position would be ideal. Have to consider an outsider chance to run top 3.
Pros: Consistent. Always runs well and goes close.
Cons: Poor barrier. Never run the trip previously.
#11 Mutual Regard – Barrier 12
Won the Ebor under a hold last start at York and up to 3200m looks no issue at all as he was finding his best hitting the line. Wasn’t let go until the 400m mark.. it was very hard to miss on replay exactly how good the run actually was. Beat Lord Van Percy by 1.3L that day but was really 3L if ridden out fully. Maps to position forward today and that looks a key advantage. Loves a good surface and won three back at distance.. loves it. Run top 3 in 10 of last 11 runs.
Pros: Will Stay. Good barrier. Proven. Fit. Damien Oliver onboard.
Cons: Step up in class again.
#12 Who Shot TheBarman – Barrier 13
Group 3 winner in Aus but what did he beat? Very disappointing last start in the Caulfield Cup. Wasn’t the best ride, but I thought the run was disappointing. They will surely try and ride a quieter race today and come from further back.
Pros: Cup winner in NZ at this distance.
Cons: Weight doesn’t seem ideal against this class. Tricky barrier to get right run. Disappointing last start.
#13 Willing Foe – Barrier 17
James McDonald given this ride over Cav Man which clearly shows who the stable thinks is the better horse. Two back at Newbury agianst Red Cad and Seismos he hit the front 400m out passing Seismos but didn’t have the staying power and was passed in the final 50m by Seismos who continued to push away after the line. Big concerns for mine over exactly how good this horse is. Had a year and a half off after a very good 6 length win over Harris Tweet before starting this prep. I think we will see improvement from the two back run.. but the Irish St Leger run wasn’t inspiring.
Pros: Peak run would measure up to placing. Weighted well enough.
Cons: Poor barrier. Concern over staying a true 3200m.
#14 Ambivalent – Barrier 4
The money has come for this horse over the past week to get it into 50s where she deserves to be. All 4 runs last prep were very solid form wise with the most significant at Meydan when 3rd to Gentildonna and My Amblivalent. I note Gentildonna ran a very close 2nd overnight in Japan in a very strong form race. Since that run My Ambivalent ran and won at York and then was 3rd to Flintshire and Cirrus Des Aigles (strong form around both these runners) and then 4th to Thistle Bird & Venus de Milo (strong form also). The key for mine today is she comes in with 54.5kg today and is up to 3200m. She has always looked the type who is actually wanting further and will have ever chance to prove exactly how well she stays. Obviously had the stone bruise issue in training and missed the main goal of the Caulfield Cup, but has to be respected as a live exotics chance in this race at very least on her potential. Worth noting Admire Rakti ran 1L behind Gentidonna in the Japan Cup giving it 2kg. My Ambivalent ran 2L behind at Meydan and missed the start so had to spend a bit extra early… Gets a 2kg turn around on that ‘form’ reference also.
Pros: Has form around the best of the best. Very good barrier. Will be positive.
Cons: Will she stay 3200m? Does she have the gas to stay for 800m? How fit is she after the stone bruise setback?
#15 Precedence – Barrier 20
The old bloke will be racing in Green today not the normal colours. Yucky barrier 20 today. Was putting in some good runs last prep and even this prep but let’s be honest, he isn’t up to this grade. Could rattle home for top 10 finish but not a top hope. Can’t look into it further than that.
Pros: Will stay. Bart Cummings. Weight.
Cons: Not top class. Hasn’t won since Spring last year.
#16 Brambles – Barrier 21
Owners couldn’t be unhappy with the 4th in the Caulfield Cup… but last start in the Mackinnon well beaten out the front.. but forgive the run with the headwind… but that’s not the type of run you want coming into a Melbourne Cup 3 days later. They ran to ‘take the edge off’ so he doesn’t over-race in the Cup… well he won’t do that..! You have to respect his form over the distances 2000m+ this prep and also beat Big Memory and Signoff four runs back.. giving Signoff 5.5kg.. meets well better at weights (2.5kg). I wouldn’t be shocked to see Brambles take up the running here. I do think considering the weights and the price on Signoff that Brambles shouldn’t be a $90 shot, but I also am concerned about the Mackinnon run.
Pros: Stays. Strong form lines. Weighted well. Not beaten far in Caulfield Cup.
Cons: Gut buster last start. Wide barrier. Long prep.
#17 Mr O’Ceirin – Barrier 19
I’m the number 1 ticket holder in the Mr O’Ceirin fan club. That said, he is unproven on a Good surface with 0 wins from 15 attempts. He needs at worst a dead 5 to show his best and a slow track would be even more ideal. We won’t get either. His JRA Cup run was good and will fancy the distance today.. but i’m honestly not sure how he got into this at no.17! No chance sorry mate. Still love you.
Pros: My Bias for the horse.
Cons: Will struggle to beat more than 6 home on a Dead 4 surface… 4 home on a Good 3.
#18 Au Revoir – Barrier 23
How does his form stack up? Not very well if i’m honest. Every chance from out the front first up at Moonee Valley and beaten by Le Roi and Prince of Penzance. Unproven to an extent at this distance and also unproven to measure up in this grade of race either. Weighted well enough to consider a minor chance at breaking the places but I’m struggling to suggest how it can win. Damien Oliver jumped off for a reason.
Pros: Stays on. Low weight.
Cons: Wide barrier. Class
#19. Lidari – Barrier 10
Had every chance in the Caulfield Cup i thought. Was a little further back than expected but still ran well. Weighted nicely again here today but clearly wasn’t the best run there. I have massive queries at this distance for him and I just can’t recommend him staying this distance. Will try position closer than midfield.
Pros: Good recent form. Barrier suits.
Cons: Distance, Last start run.
#20. Opinion – Barrier 14
It’s hard to rate this bloke. He puts in some really good runs and then just doesn’t turn up. He will stay the distance and he likes a long straight, but his won last start in the MV Cup was very average. Ran 2nd to The Offer in the Sydney Cup in Autumn but is that really good enough form? Was strong behind Junoob in The Metrop but just couldn’t get there. A rank outside chance but price looks about right.
Pros: Stays the distance. Light weight. Decent barrier.
Cons: No explosive turn of foot. Hasn’t won in 10 starts.
#21. Araldo – Barrier 24
Eye-catching run in the Caulfield Cup. Continues to improve each run in this prep as well. Last prep beat Sea Moon in the Bart Cummings and then ran a decent 3rd when couldn’t be ridden out in the Lexus to miss a run in the Cup. Seems to have matured even more since last prep and weighted nicely. Have to respect in this race on what we have seen.
Pros: Peaked last start and should again on trends. Suited by distance.
Cons: Widest barrier. Very far back in run. Not won since last year.
#22. Lucia Valentina – Barrier 2
This girl is young being just 4, but Adelaide who won the Cox Plate is a similar age so you can’t just look at the Age to judge maturity. She was huge in the Tramway first up when winning. Too far back in the George Main second up and then was even huger in the Turnbull. Her 3rd in the Caulfield Cup was amazing from such an average ride. She went via the train station to grab a dim sim she was that wide.. wider than the winner. Barrier 2 today will mean she has no excuses.. expect them to try and push at least 1/4 of the pack if not try and sit midfield. Her best is always seen in the final 600m of the race and she has the sectionals to push home. She would love a bit of rain.
Pros: Sectionals don’t lie, she is the real deal. Positive barrier to get a strong position. Loves a long straight. Has the ability to make up 8 lengths in 400m on leaders. Weighted to run well. Measured up last start.
Cons: Still just a 4YO. How far back do they get? Is her very best seen on surfaces with a bit of sting out?
#23. Unchain My Heart – Barrier 23
Has won 2 from 3 at distance and is an out and out stayer. Hasn’t gone close this prep but did finish last prep with a strong 3200m win at course and distance. Didn’t really beat much that day but was a peak beyond what was expected. Will stay. Barrier suits? Not good enough to win though.
Pros: Will stay. Good barrier. No weight.
Cons: Class of this runner. Hasn’t beaten anything good. Will settle far back.
#24. Signoff – Barrier 16
Snuck in by winning the Lexus which was really set up for him. Had 1.5KG on Big Memory and sat off the pace while Big Memory had to deal with the headwind. He has continued to find one horse too good all prep but last start was just suited. Gets into the race with a star jockey onboard and no weight.. but drew a horrible barrier. Will probably sit midfield and will stay the distance. Is he this good though? I have my doubts.
Pros: 51kg. Sits midfield. Gun jockey. Loves the track.
Cons: Class he has beaten in past… there is none. Long prep winding up and up to 3200m. Barrier.
The Key Chances
In no particular order, I have moved all of the runners into one of five categories. Just to explain what it all means, just because a runner is in the Medium Chance pile doesn’t necessary mean they aren’t a good bet. It means they need a fair bit of luck and the right circumstances or there are simply question marks over the horse.
Top Chance
Admire Rakti
Fawkner
Seismos
Mutual Regard
Lucia Valentina
High Chance
My Ambivalent
Protectionist
Medium Chance
Cavalryman
Brambles
Willing Foe
Signoff
Low Chance
Red Cadeaux
Sea Moon
Junoob
Gatewood
Who Shot TheBarman
Araldo
Opinion
Minimal Chance
Royal Diamond
Precedence
Mr O’Ceirin
Au Revoir
Lidari
Unchain My Heart
Melbourne Cup 2014 Tips
Top Pick – Fawkner
It was a very tough job in selecting the top pick this year. Fawkner, Lucia Valentina and Mutual Regard all rate close on my profile of the race. The difference between them is Fawkner and Mutual Regard both can map forward and from their barriers will be in a better position than Lucia Valentina. I just have a little bit of a question mark over how good Mutual Regard is on a strong tempo and staying race while i’m sure Fawkner will be suited and is proven at this track and is in top form. Fawkner is currently a $11.50 chance and I believe on my ratings he deserves to be single figures and a better chance than a horse such as Protectionist.
Best Roughie – Seismos
I’m not a very forgiving person, but Seismos was simply not suited by the tempo of the Caulfield Cup and should really have been pushed too lead that race and to set a solid clip. Up in distance suits him today and from barrier 1 expect him to sit in the lead and set the pace or if there is another speed, sit right off them and attempt to get off the rail early. He has the ability to stay and stay and stay and if the tempo is put on full pace from the 1000m, he will be in it at the finish. He will look as if he is beaten off at the 500m or so.. he had Willing Foe and Red Cadeaux run past him last start and then just stayed on to beat them both.. that is him. At $90 on Betfair currently, he represents a live chance at a big price.
Top 10
Fawkner
Mutual Regard
Seismos
Lucia Valentina
Admire Ratki
My Ambivalent
Protectionist
Signoff
Cavalryman
Brambles
Flemington Race 8
Stipulate: Probably one of the forgotten horses of the spring. Won very well first up beating Brambles and then ran 2nd favourite 2.5L 7th to Foreteller/Happy Trails. Then 3.5L 5th to Lucia Valentina and it was a decent run… then unlucky in the Cup last start. 60kg hurts, but from barrier 3 will position forward enough and give them a sight.
Fat Al: Never wins out of turn. Isn’t his turn today.
Jacquinot Bay: Been running some ok races recently. Strange tactics last start but finished off ok at Caulfield behind Contributer/Noble Protector and close to Sign Off if you rate that form. Take a sit today.. was 2.3L off Who Shot Thebarman also three back… has been measuring up to Group horses. Probably overs.
Tanby: Ran home ok all things considered first up. Shown best over further than this in the past so hard to suggest the win.
Travolta: He looks done. I can’t recommend him on any of his three previous runs when he had every chance out the front.
Tuscan Fire: Didn’t show much first up. Not the best runner second up and hasn’t been the same since last win in 2013. Does enjoy the Flemington track though.
Vilanova: Have to just ignore last start run at Caulfield when pulled up lame. Ran 3rd in WFA-G3 behind Rising Romance and Moriarty two back which has to be respected. Waller/Newitt combo and finds best on Good.
Pheidon: Went close in Group 1 just two runs back.. but was absolutely pushed over 2040m by a 100-1 shot at MV and only just held on thanks to the rail. Back to 1800m today suits much more… Will be out the front and will give them a sight.
Bel Thor: Strong win last start beating Our Hand of Faith who has strong form lines. Up in distance suits again… but can he find the same type of run again today? Has the ability.. but needs a dead track.
Lightinthenite: Back from Darwin and hasn’t shown signs of being at his best. Not for me here.
Quayside: Good horse but how good is she? Had every chance to win last start at Cranbourne and couldn’t get the job done. Back to 1800m but up in class significantly.. can’t dismiss her on form but can’t be over the moon from barrier.
Sysmo: Backed hard to win at Sale last start and couldn’t place after being blocked at 200m for a run.. but wasn’t winning. That loss was no disgrace.. beaten by a 3Y-GP1 winner after all. Up to 1800m and back to Flemington is ideal. Would prefer a bit of sting out though.
Zabisco: Thought he showed a very solid race first up. Have to improve again though to beat all of these. Not very well weighted.
Electric Fusion: Solid enough run with 60kg last start at Caulfield… was the best run all prep. Up in class and down in weight, have to improve 2 lengths to measure up.
Atacama: By all reports and form this horse is flying over in New Zealand.. so much so it has flown over here. Has been very well backed and has been a strong tip for her.
Admire Inazuma: Just ignore he went around first up. Rate on best runs last prep and they win this.
Comments: We are going stupidly wide in the Quaddie here, but that is how hard it is today. Three horses do stand out on form for mine in Stipulate, Atacama and Admire Inazuma.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back Atacama to win. Smaller bet Admire Inazuma.
Flemington Race 9
Aomen: Very impressive winning first up at Randwick in fast time from out the front. Group 3 2nd to Military Attack in Hong Kong is bloody good form and hard to ignore. Back to 1200m today a strange move as has never tackled the distance.. but should handle based on what we have seen? Respect.
Not Listenin’tome: Had every chance last start at Moonee Valley behind Lankan Rupee… just not good enough this prep. Prefer Iconic at the weights here.
Iconic: Weighted to win today. Very good last two runs and well back in class here. Looks well suited. Big chance.
It Is Written: Continues to run well without winning. Find a few too good again.
Reparations: Not sure the form from last prep measures up here. Best seen over 1400m… not for me.
That’s A Good Idea: Failed big time on Saturday down the straight out the front.. no surprise. Will go much better today but even so hard to see.
Karacatis: Every chance last start but well beaten by Hucklebuck. Previous start Whitlam got the better of him also but he did beat home Iconic. Don’t dismiss this bloke.
Waterman’s Bay: Surprised us with a very good run last start at Caulfield. Finally putting it together? Sat much closer and closed nicely. Needs to improve again though. Weighted well.
Target in Sight: Continues to run strong races. Got the win again last start over In Cahoots who is a strong form reference now. Very good horse.
Facile Tigre: Every chance first up and showed nothing. Has won in past down straight but not for mine.
Office Bearer: Every chance first two runs. Didn’t show much.
Decircles: Goes ok first up. Goes well at track and best shown over further. Can’t dismiss.
Don’t Get Excited: Hasn’t shown his best in a while now and first up proved that when Eight Bills beat him. Weighted well though. Never placed at track from 4 tries.
Eight Bills: Never won down the straight but was a very good win at MV first up. Have to respect.
Final Crescendo: Third to Chautauqua two back is decent form in Group 2 but showed nothing last start at Caulfield. Will handle straight.
Jazz Song: Very good last prep in 3YO and FM class. Beat the likes of Griante and ran strongly behind Srikandi, Miracles of Life and Cosmic Endeavour. Good horse but shown best over further imo. Still. looks progressive.
Phelan Ready: He actually ran really well at Caulfield last start. Up to 1200m suits today but never handled the straight in past.
Sea Lord: Finally back to his best and got a win at Geelong. Much harder and never won at track.
Thermal Current: Turned the form around running a very valid 5th at Caulfield last start. Can improve 2nd up today and could be back to his best? Only issue is hasn’t ever won down straight but has always run well enough.
Couldn’t Agreemore: How well is he going this prep? Won first up down straight but didn’t beat anything really. Failed at Caulfield next start and then won a 4 horse race against no one just last start. Has to improve.
Churchill Dancer: First up run at Moe wasn’t very good but back to dry track today.. ran an won down straight last prep and also a close 3rd. Has to improve on first up run.
Nite Rocker: Ran close 2nd to Hucklebuck two back and then last start won very well in Morphetville. Will be out the front today and very hard to catch if measures up.
Comments: Sticking with the class in the race.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Iconic to win. Smaller bet Aomen.
Flemington Race 10
Griante: Just ignore last start when looked the winner but had a issue with Thumps. Very good win two back at Caulfield beating Girl Guide and that form measures up. Horrible barrier today but should get over and settle. Up to 1400m ideal if you ask me.. this is where she finds her best form and Flemington should suit her style of looming up and just putting them away. Good track is also ideal.
She’s Clean: Can’t ignore her first up run behind Avoid Lightning. Finished off nicely and up to 1400m will suit. Has ability.
My Sabeel: Thought she had every chance last start at Randwick and the long straight didn’t suit her style of racing. Two and three back runs were strong behind Arabian Gold and Catkins. Maps nicely.
Rose of Choice: Stuck on strongly from a forward spot to be claimed late by Avoid Lightning first up. Shown over in Ascot her better runs are at this distance as well. Respect from barrier.
Lady Lakshmi: Got the chocolates.. just… last start at Bendigo. This is much harder though but will be going forward. May be exposed late.
Hazard: Not the same horse this prep i’m afraid. hasn’t shown me enough.
Vibrant Rouge: Disappointing run first up and then also last start at Geelong. Couldn’t back.
Danestroem: Had every chance to win it last start but just missed at Geelong. Previous run beaten fairly by Griante. Weighted well here but has to work hard to get forward position today.
Ava’s Delight: Good horse but continues to miss starts and lose her chances of winning. Suited by Flemington as it’s a forgiving type of track.
Sino Eagle: Gone backwards since two good runs to start the prep. Has to improve today to win and by a good length.
Flash of Doubt: Lucky win three back at Mornington and way outclassed last two runs. Will be again today.
Nautical: 0.5L 3rd to Commanding Jewel form and that matched up well with Bonaria on Saturday. Ignore last start and rate on best. Have to respect.
Spitfire Lady: Like this horse but isn’t good enough to be winning this first up at Flemington.
Nadeem Lass: Got the runs and ran well at Geelong. Continues to run well without winning but is improving onwards and upwards again. Due for a win soon.
Belle De Coeur: Two runs this prep not shown very much. Last start minor injury could be the answer to that. Last prep measured up behind Cosmic Endeavour and Srikandi. Respect.
Red Fez: Not on last two runs can’t be winning this.
Mahara: Good win over All Cerise last start and ran strongly behind Woodbine. Has to improve again though to be matching up here.
Coronation Shallan: Decent horse but can’t see her winning on recent form.
Comments: Another tough race to finish the day. Does the Sydney or Melbourne form stand up?
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Win bets on Griante and Nadeem Lass.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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