Welcome to The Profits form guide for Geelong Cup Day on 22 October 2014. Just two races that stick out with the highest quality runners. In the Cup we are going wide with two value selections who we think should be closer to favourites in the race while in the next race, one of our favourites who was massive last start is way over the odds and is our Best Bet. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Melbourne Best Bet
Geelong Race 8 Griante
Very tough victory last start at Caulfield and this is almost a step down in grade if you compare the fields. Form was franked on Saturday by Girl Guide and Shamal Wind going very close in two difference races to very classy runners. $6/$2.10 is being bet at the time of putting this up on website and this is way over the odds. If the horse was jumping from barrier 6 not barrier 16, the price would be halved. Betting Each-Way.
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Geelong Race 7 – Geelong Cup
Sertorius: Hasn’t run within 3L of a win the last 5 races ia c oncern but well back in class today from WFA-G1 and has been running ‘ok’.
Shoreham: Huge late sectionals at Flemington last start off a slow pace out front and is the one to follow forward. Up to 2400m suits and never missed a place at distance either. Big chance especially if they push forward today.
Zanbagh: Very disappointing run last start in the Benella Cup i thought. Was struggling on the turn and then found another gear in the straight when it was all over. Looks best suited to longer straights.
More Than Sacred: Eye-catching run in the Cranbourne Cup after a fairly strange first up run. Will improve onwards up to 2400m and looks well suited in this class. Need a bit of luck to get a very good run though.
Like a Carousel: Surprised they opened him so high in the market and we tweeted out to get on at the price. It has come in a little but still is value. The Mulaqen form has been franked again with Mulaqen winning a decent race up in sydney on Saturday. Rates to run well.
Marksmanship: Well beaten by Who Shot Thebarman last start at Flemington when had every chance due to the pace. Been up a long time. Fake favourite when prices were put up. Minor chance.
Caravan Rolls On: Every chance second run in when 3.8L 5th to Like A Carousel at Sandown. Can improve onwards again today but has to find much more.
Comments: Going with the value in Shoreham and Like a Carousel while we have to saver More Than Sacred at very least.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Backing Shoreham & Like A Carousel for equal stakes. Saver bet More Than Sacred.
Geelong Race 8
No stuffing around with the write-up here.
This is a tough, wide-open race.. but there is one runner who we have been following for a long time and reached her full potentail last start that can win again.
Griante won very very well last start at Caulfield beating Girl Guide and SHamal Wind in a very tough victory. Girl Guide beat home Catkins on the weekend running second to Sweet Idea. Griante would be starting close to odds on from a more positive barrier, but when you consider how well this horse jumps (last prep led quite a few times), it’s hard to ignore the horses class. Griante doesn’t have to imporve to win this, simply repeat that performance. The $6 on offer at one bookie is an amazing E/W price.
Comments: Betting each-way today.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Griante Each-Way
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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