Welcome to The Profits form guide for Saturday racing at Flemington on 9 August 2014. Last Saturday was a dream and while in reality I would like a repeat today, the real fact is that a repeat of that isn’t likely statistically, but hey, let’s give it a shot anyway! The Best Bet today is a horse I am very keen on and have a massive opinion of. The trainer has said that the horse will only run if we get a Dead track or worse so we will see in the morning. The price is significantly over the price I have the horse rated and with all the factors (including only four horses that I rate to be able to possibly win the race) we have a 90% rating again. As always with Flemington we need to watch to see the track patterns and adjust accordingly, especially with some good swoopers in the last few races that may be value depending on the track plays. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Melbourne Best Bet
Flemington Race 2 Eclair Samba
This is a very low rating race and I can’t see too much pace out the front that would ruin the race for Eclair Samba or more importantly set it up for Count Encosta. Only three main chances in this race and a big priced outsider is one of them on my ratings. Very keen on Eclair today at the price, maps to win.
Melbourne Next Bet
Flemington Race 3 Reckless Assassin
The early odds on this girl were a little better than the price today, but it still represents value in a race lacking in depth. There are only three to four horses in the race with any real chance of winning today and if like mapping suggests they allow Reckless Assassin to control the pace of the race, I don’t see anything chasing her down today.
Melbourne Best Value
Flemington Race 7 Smackdown
I was shocked to see the early odds bet and posted up the play on twitter at $51/$13. Those odds are gone, but I wouldn’t be surprised with a horse like this to see a late drift on Betfair to similar odds. First up he just kept on keeping on to the line off a solid tempo and just missed. Yes, he is worse off weight wise today but we have to believe he wasn’t peaking first up either so there is improvement to come. I don’t see as much speed in the race today so in reality, he will get a much better run today and should have the extra legs to compete at the end of the race. Extra 200m should suit also.
Flemington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 6, 7
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 10, 12
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 9
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 6, 9, 13
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1
It’s Crunch time: A year and a half ago was a good horse but shown nothing since. No way.
Couldn’t Agreemore: Coming off an injury, just ignore last start race and rate on previous runs… and he rates very well here. Loves the straight and last start was a close 3rd to Adamantium with Pago Rock infront also. Big chance and is best suited by a dry track.
Fab Fevola: Close again last start but just missed. Will lead into the final 100m again today and is every chance again.
Kristy Lee: Just ignore last start and rate on previous runs. First time down the straight I can’t have her back to the 1000m.
Laohu: Really like this horse. Won us a lot of money last prep and progressed through the grades. Showed best at 1200m so should be suited by the 1000m as well but straight first time in this grade, I can’t be on.
Nicholls Court: Love this horse, always have. Handles the straight very well but always been put in the deep end against very good horses. Ran 1.3L 3rd to Lankan Rupee last prep at course and distance. Has to find best and is suited more on dead than good ground.
Hotham Heights: Showed nothing first up. Never won at track 7 tries or 9 at distance.
Splash of Moet: Very well backed into favourite today but I really can’t justify the price. Should be closer to $6 on my ratings and looks way unders. Never run the straight and needs to find lengths.
Beauty Cash: Took a few runs to show his best last prep but measured up in Open Class over 950m. Weighted well but couldn’t have first up in this grade.
Comments: Tough race to open the day! Playing the straight course runners.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Couldn’t Agreemore 1.5 units. Nicholls Court 1 unit.
Flemington Race 2
Surpass: Ran well first up and then last start was ok but not a chance. Has to find lengths today.
Post D’France: Should run better today than last start and go close. Weights only thing against him and suspect a runner or two too good here.
Eclair Samba: Unlucky 2nd last start at course and distance. Only up 1kg and down in class. Weighted to win.
Madam Nash: Best run of prep last start at course and down 3kg today up in class. Weighted nicely but has to find 2 lengths at least.
Count Encosta: Two in a row and then unlucky last start to not get another win. Will be giving a big distance to those out the front which may be the difference and jockey change is negative.
Darlimurla Star: Loomed but found nothing last start. Can’t have on that run.
Kenjorwood: Best shown on heavy this prep. 51kg today is good but has to find lengths on ratings.
Bachelor Royal: Best shown on wetter but does look a faint hope if produces as good a rating as last start at weights.
Compound: Looks a stupid price today. Up to 2000m.. won at this distance 3rd up last prep, is 2nd up.. also in lesser class than what that race was. 52kg. Worth a small go.
Comments: Keen on Eclair Samba here. Small bet on Compound also.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Eclair Samba to win. Very small bet also Compound.
Flemington Race 3
Reckless Assassin: Maps to get the lead today. Very good win last start at course over a similar distance in equal class. Up 3kg today but shouldn’t worry her. Very good horse.
Rememba Howe: Ran RA to within 3L last start and meets 2kg better off today, but still has to make up lengths and the barrier hurts.
Friday Hussy: 2kg better off against RA today but has to find a good 2 lengths on form to measure up today. Has the ability and will be in the right spot.
Anfitiona: Jumping out of 3YO class today and has to battle proven Open and Listed class runner in RA. Weighted poorly for mine.
Zazparella: Beaten 9L last start by a horse who has since come out and failed. Been to find lengths to measure up in this.
Spirited Will: Good horse last prep and previous prep but hasn’t shown that form since. Has to improve to place.
Royal Amati: Looks to be a heavy tracker in this class at best. No thanks can’t see here.
House of Stars: Better suited to dryer track today but hard to see the improvement to win. Could place though.
High Design: Poorly weighted today. Hard to have.
Miss Matty: Hard to see the improvement to place here even at the weights. Better on wetter.
Zinone: Ran last in similar class last start. Hard to see this improvement.
Saclaye: Maiden only winner. No.
Comments: Hard to go past Reckless Assassin.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Reckless Assassin to win.
Flemington Race 4
Dupe’Em: Good win over the 900m first up and then ran well but was too far back after jumping awkwardly last start and just missed. Up 1.5kg an issue but rates nicely.
Raposo: Missed the start and got a check during run to just miss last start. Up 2.5kg and giving 1kg to Dupe’Em is a big disadvantage.
Coram: Best ridden cold and will be coming late. Big win first up in Maiden and looks primed. Rates well.
Fontein Ruby: Best backed since markets opened and won nicely last start. Up in class again but rates well on two runs this prep.
Hawking: Disappointing last start on the heavy but back to dryer track should help.
San Nicasio: Maiden only winner and the times weren’t anything to brag about. Has to improve.
Angry Gee: Average sale maiden winner on slow. Not for me.
Beluga Caviar: Up 2kg today off a first up run down the straight. Up to 1400m will suit on breeding. Looks over the correct odds.
Comments: Average betting race if you ask me.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Coram on top. Smaller bet Beluga Caviar.
Flemington Race 5
ScaredyMac: Showed nothing his last two preps and never placed at the track. No thanks.
Cross of Gold: Good win two back by 3L but this is a step up in class and back to 1200m down the straight doesn’t look ideal to me. Weighted out of it for mine.
Play Master: Good win two back at Sandown and then last start ran nicely at Moonee Valley. Up in class it feels today and down the straight first time off 57kg.. others look better suited but should run well.
Theatreman: Shown his best on wet tracks and won’t get that today. Masive step up in class today. Can run a decent clip which helps.
Taddei Tondo: Didn’t show too much last start at Sandown but was ok last two starts before that. best shown on wetter tracks.
Clevadude: The big unknown. Didn’t have to beat much last start in an average time last start and this is a big task today. Only run down the straight was for dead last. Have to respect on that run last start though.
Onya Keithy: Not suited at distance on previous form and looking for further. Could run ok though.
Marwood: Won very well in his R-64 at 3. Two runs this prep haven’t exactly been special and got beat last start as short priced fav at Sandown. Up in class and down the straight a big concern. Not for mine here in this class!
Monkstone: Showed nothing first up and out of 3YO class today. No thanks.
Vicario: Shown nothing since 3YO win. Hard to have.
Tycoon Express: Not in this class.
Hot Mama: Decent horse but stepping out of 3YO class first time. Has won at course and distance previously. First up run was ok but not this level for mine.
Oh To Be Rich: Shown best runs on wet tracks. No thanks.
Star Darci: Maiden win on heavy.. no.
Comments: Best Bet of the day has been scratched which makes this race wide open. Only two key chances I felt before scratching.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Play Master to win. Saver Clevadude.
Flemington Race 6
Streets Away: Very good horse returning after more than a year off. Weir runner and Rawiller takes ride are both positives and loves Flemington.
Jacquinot Bay: First up run but goes very well at distance. Never seen at track previously but rates well. Win won’t shock me here. Best seen on Good tracks.
Under The Sun: Not the same horse this prep. Can’t have.
Loot ‘N’ Run: Brave to the line last start in a steady tempo and just missed. Maps to lead again today and down 0.5kg could be the edge he needs. The wetter the better. Can’t win on Good IMO.
Eximius: Ignore two back run when had Thumps and last start was a strange tempo set by The Cleaner. Had almost a month between runs to freshen up and a repeat of Three back run off 52kg would win here. Big chance and looks a nice price.
Free of Doubt: Front runner dominated race last start and ran well. Up 0.5kg today giving Loot N Run 1kg. Has to improve against this group.
Correggio: Showed best in past over slightly further. Did win last prep over 1800m in similar class. Hard to judge here.
Felidea: Big issue with missing the start does wreck the horses chance alot. Weighted ok today but hard to see measuring up even off such a good run last start at Sandown.
Supreme Warrior: Unlucky 2nd last start at Sandown running very well. Continues to run well this prep but has to improve again.
Galileo Gold: Not in this class. Decent horse, could place but not win for mine.
Comments: Fairly open race on ratings. Quite a few you have to take on trust. Happy to play at the price for Eximius at the weights.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 6, 7
Strategy: Eximius E/W.
Flemington Race 7
Tiger Tees: Got his Group 1 third up last prep on a slow track but since that run went a little backwards.. but did place in WFA-G1 class behind Hana’s Goal. Obviously a good horse and has placed at track before. Have to respect the class.
Crackerjack King: Hasn’t been seen since 2012 but is a WFA-G1 winner with 60.5kg by 2.5L over in Europe… but that was 2000m not 1200m. Word is trials have been going well and will be finishing strongly.
Zamorar: Just got home for the win last start over the 1000m and is suited by increase to 1200m. Weighted nicely and a good chance.
Shanghai Warrior: Has to improve 2 lengths today to be winning at the weights.
Broken: Not going anywhere near the correct form to be placing here.
Text’N Hurley: Good horse and placed twice at this distance but this is just too short for her. Will still run well.
Road Trippin’: Best seen over 1400m+ last prep and hard to see winning this.
Mr Chard: Very short in the market for a horse who lost first up to Mr Good Cat. Very hard to have and i’m surprised at the price.
Sino Eagle: Big dominant win first up and you have to respect the form of her. Looks a sneaky chance at odds.
Grand Emperor: Didn’t show much last start and hard to see placing.
Smackdown: The value in the race. Ran a very good 0.2L 3rd to Zamorar. Meets worse off at the weights today but not anywhere near as much speed in this race and rates to go close.
Creamery Lane: Couldn’t win a BM-64 last start.. FFS!
Comments: Very keen on Smackdown at the price today. Very winable race.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 10, 12
Strategy: Smackdown 2 units to place 0.75 units to win.
Flemington Race 8
Danish Whiskey: Has been crying out for a dryer track and will get it today. Expect her to peak and weighted fine. Mapping only issue.
Nadeem Lass: The one to beat for mine, up in weight today down in class but last three runs have all had a lot of merit. Needs a dead track at least though to find best.
Winta Chiller: Hasn’t gone close this prep and has been backed well today. Maps to sit closer to the speed today but at the weights certainly has to improve.
Dare I Ask: Rates to lead this one up. Has to find about 2 lengths at the weights to beat the best in this one.
Aliyana: Shown nothing this prep and don’t expect any better.
Vivi Veloce: Last two runs have been ok behind Dig A Pony but hard to see the improvement to win here.
Pindan Pearl: Strong start to finish win at MV three back. First up run dead last and ran on ok but not winning over that distance. Up to 1400m today suits and from barrier 2 expect to be out the front or just off the leaders back. Has to be considered at best.
Star Impulse: Decent win last start over 1300m but had race to suit. Weighted ok.
Whistle Baby: Shown nothing all prep and can’t see that changing.
Carvalho: Not in this class.
Girls on Film: Hasn’t returned as the same horse just yet this prep. Needs to find lengths.
Takeover: Couldn’t win a BM-70 last start. Yeah na.
Never Give An Inch: Maiden only winner. Really?
Comments: Open Race. Have to go with the value here in Danish Whiskey.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 9
Strategy: Danish Whiskey E/W
Flemington Race 9
Clang and Bang: Shown nothing this prep and hard to see the improvement on last few runs.
Good Value: Ran well last start over 1400m but is 1700m the best distance 3rd up? Needs to have improved 2 lengths at least on my ratings.
Rugged Cross: Ran very well last start and looked to be back to his best when a close 2nd to Lord Durante. Was suited by the track chopping up though and have to consider the track helped.
Durnford: Ran above expectations last start but was run down late. Should have extra fitness but expect to see him run down again.
Prizum: Huge run last start at course from the back. Maps to sit MUCh closer to the speed today and looks suited. Big chance.
Zevada: Has to find lengths today on last two runs but on previous prep form can run well.
Shadow Ninja: Last two runs have been below average. Best shown on wet track three back. Has to find another gear that doesn’t seem to be there?
Amovatio: 3YO into open class now and up to 1700m. Can’t understand how he was early favourite. Has the ability but will be coming from far back and has to peak to win.
Oriental Ruby: Shown nothing all prep and don’t see it changing today.
Vizhaka: Ran ok last start but not up to this grade on that run.
Wrotham Heath: He has continued to improve after each run this prep and having a freshen up should be peaking here. David Hayes has him as his best of the day and i’m expecting a very bold run.
Rambert: Needs further to measure up.
Dash for Viz: Back end of his career. Isn’t this class. Not won since 2011. But hey, Phelan Ready won last week, so anything can happen.
Comments: I like Wrotham Heath here but the odds today do look about right so I couldn’t back with any great confidence at the odds. The same can be said for Prizum.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 6, 9, 13
Strategy: Wrotham Heath to win.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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