Welcome to The Profits form guide for Flemington on 13 September 2013. Well, we have a huge card infront of us today and also Sydney races to be added to the form guide tomorrow early in the morning. This is some of the most wide-open racing you will see all year and we will get a guide on who to follow going forward from today. Those following on Twitter for CJ when I posted at $3, but CJ did open $3.70. The same for Solicit at $7 and $6.50… those early odds have helped.. still small value with the Best Bet though with the combined odds on my ratings. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Melbourne Best Bet
Flemington Race 5 Commanding Jewel
Huge first up effort and word is CJ has improved significantly since then. Pace looks set to be on from the start today and i’m very happy to be against Gregers here up in class again. Solicit looks the main danger and is a saver bet in this race as well. 90% confident!
Melbourne Next Bet
Flemington Race 7 Dissident
I wanted to be against this horse since the markets opened around the $3.20 mark, but on doing my form this price, still available is actually a fair bit of value. Boban the key danger and worth a saver in the race to make for a fairly strong book in my eyes. Only 1-2 others who could improve but have to jump out of the ground and run close to peak performances while Dissident would almost have to go backwards.
Melbourne Third Best
Flemington Race 9 Under The Louvre
Topping off the card, Under The Louvre is a group horse and I will continue to say this. Meets a bunch of runners he should be putting to the sword today at a distance he has been crying out for on the past few runs hitting the line strongly and wanting much further. We are getting a good price today simply because of the projected race speed. That is the only thing against UTL, but he still has the class and quality to chase them home off a moderate speed. If they crawl, like in any race, it will be tough from the back.
Melbourne Best Place Bet
Flemington Race 5 Winta Chilla
The run of Winta Chilla was very strong from the back of the field let go far too early and just peaked on the run too soon. Up in grade here, will be able to be held not too far off the pack with the pace being on and able to hit the line hard. Certainly don’t give the horse much chance of winning, but should be running home strongly and has the sectional times to sneak 3rd at big odds. $12 best around I see at Bet365.
Flemington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 11, 15
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 6, 9
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 7, 8, 11, 14
Quaddie Leg Four: 8, 13, 14, 18
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1
Sabatini: VERY good win at Caulfield. Nothing really made too much ground all day but she flew home to beat a very good horse in Royal Snitzel who would be favourite here. Big chance and maps well.
Sunset Rock: Very poor first up run. Hard to back today based simply on that effort.
Afleet Espirt: Continues to pass through the grades and run well. Another step up here and down the straight from an awkward barrier may see her not good enough.
More for Me: Decent 2YO win and then ran ok for second run. Much harder here and needs to return at best plus more.
Pienkna: Two runs two wins and well backed runner down from Queensland. Peak was on heavy is the query… will be leading them out.
Traveston Girl: Been a huge go for this filly after she reversed her first up 3.8L defeat by Miss Cover Girl in 2YO class by beating her by 5.5L with a change of tactics to lead. Loves the Good going and is the right price based on solid times
Lumosty: Two very good 2YO runs when 2nd to Eloping and 3rd to Earthquake at Caulfield. Stable has a big opionin of this filly. Can win.
Avanti: Ran well enough first up but was found wanting at the line. Step back in ground probably helps but others look better.
More Radiant: Good horse. 0.2L 3rd to Bring Me The Maid and then 1.8L 4th to Earthquake nothing to laugh about. Bossy onboard an issue but goes well down the straight.
Top Dolly: First prep saw a very impressive 2nd to Oakleigh Girl flying down the straight here. Looks suited and the trial was fantastic. Has been $81 ($126 max bet with Ladbrokes) into $20.
White House Lady: Heavy win in 3F-maiden class. No thanks.
Abesha: Won maiden only fairly and didn’t measure up in this class over at Ascot. Has to find much more.
A Lotta Love: A forgive run first up and thrown in the deep end.. Can’t see it working out for them.
Comments: Traveston Girl and More Radiant on previous form are the real deal while Sabatini is rock-hard fit and maps well with the speed expected to be on.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Sabatini E/W
Flemington Race 2
Masked Marvel: Very very average first up considering last prep was a 0.2L 2nd in WFA-G3 over 2000m. Needs the run.
Who Shot Thebarman: Two runs this prep have been rather un-inspiring. Hard to take on those two runs and key is he wants MUCH further than this.
Kincaple: Not in this class today based on first two run this prep.
Jacquinot Bay: Improving type who hasn’t shown his best for a while now. Apprectiate the distance but does have to find legnths today.
Marksmanship: Ran well enough without winning last start behind Stipulate. Has to improve again but back to 2000m helps. Would prefer it wetter.
Trade Commissioner: Showed nada second up and first up run was ok without impressing. Can improve significantly today.
Kindergarden Kid: Another horse that comes on over and runs like grab. Can’t see it!
Lord Durante: Continues to run well and will again today. Every chance in this class.
Zabeelionaire: Last three runs have been great, but continues to find the milk to drink pre-race and just cats it up near the line never toughing it out. Oliver on today so you have to expect will give it every hope but step back in distance a worry for me.
Prizum: ALways runs well here at Flemington but never wins. Never won on a Good track either. Rates ok but has to find much more.
Goldoni: On his best, I think he measures up. Hard to suggest he finds his best on what we have seen since arriving in Aus.
Livery: Very good win first up with a chance of tactics over the 1600m. Massive jump up in class but expected to measure up today. Maps well.
Royal Mephisto: Not in this grade of race off what we have seen so far this prep for mine.
Comments: A very very average Open Class for 100k if you ask me. Marksmanship, Lord Durante and Livery are the only ones crying out to win today on form for me. A very trappy race to bet into
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Lord Durante E/W
Flemington Race 3
Brambles: Maps well from the barrier but 60kg looks hard to carry! Did run well last start and can improve with the distance.
Excluded: Not the same horse we knew.
Prince of Penzance: Very average run first up when didn’t find a lot at all coming to the line. Goes better at this distance and second up and at Flemington but I can’t have on that run!
Big Memory: Runs well enough at this distance but better over further. Never won first up but have to respect the class.
Ominous: Ran home well without threating first up. Has alot of merit that run but has a very average record at this distance. Needs further but should still run a blinder on that last run as a guide.
Signoff: Had no luck with his rails run first up and really wasn’t asked for anything. Won’t be so far back today and has to be considered a chance closer to the speed.
Bass Straight: Had his chances last start and can’t see the improvement based on that run.
Correggio: Breathing issues last start explains the poor run. Previous run 2nd to Eximius had alot of merit. Over the odds today on potential.
Beyond Thankful: Just didn’t handle the heavy last start at Rosehill. Way up in class again today but has measured up in the past at similar. Still, has to take the next step.. not for me.
Shikarpour: Very disappointing run at Bendigo in the golden mile but had breathing issues. Just ignore that and rate on 3YO form when ran well in this type of class. Has the ability and money suggests runs well today.
Longeron: Maps to go closer to the speed today. Won easy last start at Sandown but this is a big step up again. Can improve but hmmm. Never won on good!
Bring Something: Showed nada first up! Won a good 3YO-LR over 2400m and even maiden at 2000m.. but wants further and less classy for mine.
Comments: Signoff and Shikarpour the two key runners for mine.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Signoff on top from Shikarpour
Flemington Race 4
Zululand: Peak run at 2YO for mine was when he went forward and ran 2nd in the 2YO-GP1 to Go Indy Go at Randwick on a slow track. Did win a 2YO-G2 at course and distance. First up run was very good and a little unlucky but was very flat last time out not suited by the very hard tempo. Expected to sit back, but with a lack of tempo in the race I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go forward. Big chance today!
Chivalry: A little lucky for mine last start to get the win in a race dominated by the swoopers. Maintain Stingray should have won it. First up this distance is a massive concern and maps to have to pass a wall of horses including zululand and divan who also map out the back… has to outsprint those talented winners. Looks under the odds. Where is the speed in the race?
Merion: A touch disappointing first up when the early tempo caught him wanting in the straight. Wanting this distance today and the yard have said he has trained on well and are expecting big things. Maps better today.
Moonovermanhattan: Very disappointing run last start and very hard to forgive. Needs it wet.
Zebulon: Good win 2nd up at course and distance last prep and then wasn’t disgraced third up on a slow track. Will appreciate the ground today and can run well.
Forgive and Forget: Stuck on gamely to the line last start at Caulfield and will enjoy the distance increase today. Will shoot forward from the barrier and wouldn’t be surprised if he finds himself leading or outside the leader. Has the ability.
Silent Whisper: Two runs this prep and both have been only fair for mine. Hard to see measuring up for the win.
Turfane: Ran a blinder considering his odds last start. Did run a 0.2L 2nd just three runs back also so not really a shock. Good horse but probably won’t win this, can place if lucky?
Fast Cash: Shot home from the back well late at MV last start. Looking for this distance and will be suited by the longer straight. Will have his chance.
Raposo: All three runs have had merit. This is a MUCH harder race than the last two runs though and has to find a good 2 lengths.
Divan: Huge win first up over the 1400m when swooped and won it well. Has the sprint to match it with Chivvy if it comes to that.
Aagas: Didn’t handle the heavy over 1000m. Surprised with nomination. Surely if they do lead they don’t go stupid out front. Can’t see winning.
Comments: Where is the speed in this race? Can you really base your form around Aagas being the front runner and smashing the clock? I can’t. I have moderate speed at best on all my data and that doesn’t bode well for Chivvy or Divan or even Zululand (unless if they decide to push forward). I have to take two runners I think have the ability to win at nice odds who map further forward today.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: 1 unit on Merion to win. 0.75 units on Forgive and Forget.
Flemington Race 5
Commanding Jewel: Ran VERY well first up over the 1200m which isn’t the ideal distance. Expected to FLY home at a very suitable distance today from a positive barrier on a track that suits. Put up on Website as a ‘Get On’ at $3 for us. Much shorter now. Have something on for the Cox Plate – best around is $31.
Dear Demi: Ran nicely first up behind a few in this race but will have to find a good 2-3 lengths second up over further. Looking to be set for much further this prep and best will be seen over 1800m+. Will flash late but miss.
Gregers: Looks exposed today. Toughed it out last start at Caulfield over 1200m and the distance increase to 1400m combined with the switch to Flemington will see her very exposed in the straight out the front for a very long time. Could look the winner at the 300m but that is a bloody long straight and the 1400m will be telling. About the correct price now.
Viadana: Very average first up run this prep. Up in distance today and will be suited by the tempo.. but this is a massive difference in class than previously measured up in.
Bonaria: Got home well enough second up and up to 1400m is suitable. A sneaky blowout at odds if you are feeling game, probably could steal a place at the nice odds if finds best.
Solicit: Won here first up last prep course and distance in a very good time from start to finish beating some nice runners. She looks the main danger to Commanding Jewel and money will continue to come (already been $7 into $6) up until start time.
Gig: Flashed late the last two runs but never a winning home in either of them. May find the extra long straight today suitable off the hot tempo but form to me suggests would prefer only medium tempo to find best.
Nautical: Measured up last prep in mares grade but this is MUCH harder. Goes well first up.
Winta Chiller: Let go very early and look to have the old Winta Chiller back! Can run a bold race today and has to be considered for the places with the tempo on.
Lorna May: Had everything to suit last start at Caulfield and wasn’t good enough. Won’t beat these ones.
Comments: Two key runners here for mine in Solicit and Commanding Jewel. If you are on Commanding Jewel at $3 (twitter tip) then have a secondary bet to win the same amount on Solicit. If not, the price is still JUST value (won’t be on the day) and saver on Solicit. I also want to be on Winta Chiller to place at the $12 available with Bet365.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Commanding Jewel to win. Saver Solicit. Add a place bet for Winta Chilla also.
Flemington Race 6
Ghibellines: First time down the straight an issue. Went woooshka past Unencumbered two runs back in 2Y-GP2 for a huge win. Didn’t handle the heavy in the slipper. Have to respect the class.
Brazen Beau: First up today and looks exposed to me. Has won both runs first up but this is the hardest test yet. Being trained for the 1600m this prep, is a good horse but may find one too good down the straight.
Get The Nod: Should be rock-hard fit after the strong win first up. Barrier a concern for getting a run if something traps it in but has the ability.
Rich Enuff: Huge race win first up at the valley. Did it early and late and just took their will to win away. Looks a serious horse and the price looks very good today based on times. Repeat those today and becomes guineas fav.
Moonlight Hussler: Two very poor runs. Hard to see even at best.
Go Indy Go: Very good horse and proved it last prep by running two 2nds first and second up and then winning a 2YO-Gp3 by 3.3L and then WOO-SHHH’D past a good loot up in Sydney over the 1600m. Guineas clearly the target though so not sure we will see the best first up?
Cornrow: Two very average runs this prep. Couldn’t have.
Looks Like The Cat: Meowwww. Ran three strong races last prep for three placings. Showed best run over 1600m. Looking for further.
Nordic Empire: Looked the winner coming to the line but just lost out to Chivalry. Maps well from barrier and as long as he handles the straight he will find the line. Big chance.
Stingray: Super unlucky the last two runs when I could argue that he should have won both. Maps very well to get a tow into it behind Galaxy Pegasus. Big chance here and huge odds on offer.
Awesome Rock: Ran home as well at Chivvy last start but died on the run late. Will need to weave a passage late to have a chance for mine.
Wandjina: Decent horse but well beaten first up. Can’t see the improvement at this point.
Berlutti: 2YB-64 winner. Did run 3rd to Royal Snitz but that was on slow ground. Need less classy grade or wet track.
Galaxy Pegasus: The times were very sound for the good win at Geelong, but can you trust that run today here down the straight? I don’t think so at the price.
Onerous: Decent enough maiden win. Not here.
Comments: Wide open race as you would expect. Have my eye on two key runners in Rich Enuff and Stingray. I also give Nordic Empire a good chance while there are two to three others I like who are the wrong price.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 11, 15
Strategy: Rich Enuff on top from Stingray.
Flemington Race 7
Green Moon: Never won with this weight or above, ever. Loves the track but this certainly isn’t the goal. Need further but should run well.
Fawkner: A little disappointing in the William Reid but considering it was 1200m i’m probably being harsh.. did hit the line well. Ran 0.1L 2nd to Happy Trails in the Emirates in 2012 before stamping himself last year. Was a eye-catcher in the George Main up in Sydney 2nd up for mine after the Tramway run from dead last. First up form is great, but certainly won’t be 100% primed you would expect. Still, has the ability.
Boban: Front-runner dominated race last start and is crying out for 1600m for mine. Would prefer a bit of sting out of the ground for mine though. Maps well again today and only one run for one win here… loves a long straight. Only has to find a length on last start for mine.
Super Cool: Too far back last start but finished off ok. Not sure I can be on until over further on how he has developed and looking for the 2000+ trips. Still over the odds.
Sertorius: Hit the line well firs tup from last but still was 4 lengths back. Will be ridden much further forward today and the best runs last prep were between 1400m and 2400m. Likes the track.
Puissance De Lune: Never missed a place from 4 runs at track with 2 wins. Best runs last prep were keep into preps and on Good ground. Did of course run 0.1L 2nd in this last prep as well. Maps perfectly. Could announce that he is back today with a G1 win.
Messene: Very hard to understand run last start. Have to forgive and rate on first up run.
Spillway: Big step up in class today if you ask me. Need to improve again to rate in this grade. Has the ability.
Dissident: Very good win first up. If Moment of Change doesn’t get injured during the race I have a feeling he beats Dissident home, but that shouldn’t take away from the win. Up yo 1600m should suit as well with his best run last prep on a Good track in the Randwick Guineas win over El Roca last prep.
Late Charge: Good win first up and does certainly have claims being in this grade today, but I can’t back going from BM-78 into this.
Don Doremo: Bm-64 win on slow up to this? Please!
Comments: I want to oppose Dissident at the price today, but I just can’t. The horse will get the correct surface today in Good and the only horse I can see improving past him on last start run is Boban. Fawkner could peak over the distance to threaten but otherwise, I can’t see one passing him.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 6, 9
Strategy: Dissident to win. Saver Boban
Flemington Race 8
Speediness: Risk this hugely talented bloke at your own peril. Goes well first up and loves this track. Shown best on Slow to Good track range as well and loves the straight here.
Temple of Boom: Measured up last prep with x2 seconds in G1 and a G2 win. Loves this track and loves the straight. Once again don’t dismiss!
Flamberge: Run of the race first up and got in for a big win. Very strong form down the straight and while improvement may be required today, expect him to be there at the finish.
Alma’s Fury: Up north last prep for easier races after a poor previous prep… did get two easy wins. Never been down the straight a huge disadvantage and better seen deeper into preps.
Pago Rock: Very very average run first up. Preformed well below and hard to back off that effort today. Average 2nd up record also and only 1 win at track from 11.
Sistine Demon: Never won first up previously. Trial was ok without impressing. Best runs clearly seen on a Good track. Will be pushed to lead it up and will be hard to run down if the easy lead is handed up to him. Huge odds on offer today.
Akavoroun: Two trials and both were decent enough. Two wins from two runs at track and 1 from 1 at the distance. Likes any track condition and rates well today. Only issue is never been down the straight but loves the long straights.
Lonhspresso: Very poor run first up. Hard to see the improvement for mine. Did have last win at course and ditsance 2nd up.
British General: Average first up. Not beating all of these home today.
Charlie Boy: Won the Danehill here two preps back and ran 7th in the Guineas. Been a year between runs and trialled well coming back into this today. Gear changes interesting.
In Cahoots: Measured up in cityc lass due to wetter track. Finds best on wet it seems but can still run ok on good or dead. Not sure this class though.
Tango’s Daughter: 3rd to Anatina and Gregers at course and similar distance last prep and then continued on to beat Politeness, Floria and other talented horses. Has a huge future and should measure up. Goes well enough first up and likes it dry.
Sweet As Bro: Killer trial and the form has stacked up so the money has come slightly for him. Kilmore Cup win was huge beating Sistine Demon last prep and ran well in the Blamey as well. Prefer others though at this distance.
Chautauqua: Did win a G3 last prep over 1400m but seems to be wanting slightly further? Ohters preferred for mine.
Sea Lord: Not going well enough at all.
You’re So Good: Ran well enough first up to consider a small chance. Never won from 5 starts here but does handle the straight.
Mister Milton: Hasn’t won or even placed for a very long time but always goes well without threatening here at Flemington. No thanks.
Bon Rocket: Surprised if they even let this horse run in this grade. 0-64 winner and couldn’t place in BM70 last two runs this prep.
Comments: The most open race on the card? I think so. Wide quaddie. No bet race.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 7, 8, 11, 14
Strategy: Akavoroun E/W
Flemington Race 9
Precedence: Never won first up or at distance. Enough said.
Rhythm To Spare: Goes well fresh and has won at the track previously. Took four runs last prep to finally get a win at a decent level of race but not quite this quality for mine. Has the ability but this is slightly beyond it for mine.
Shroeham: Won three times previously at track and twice at distance. Been a long time between drinks and showed best over MUCh further last prep.
Scapolo: Strong second the last time we saw this runner here in Spring a few years back. Won 3 of last 4 but all on heavy over in NZ and the prize money really wasn’t that great.
Escado: Best runs clearly been on wetter tracks and over further (SA Derby Winner). Needs the run for me.
Desert Jeuney: Never won at distance or second up.. or even placed… but the first up run was EYE CATCHING. Won last prep at this track and has run well at this track and distance previously. KEY is this runner needs a dead track at best.
Extra Zero: Measured up last prep in this class, but over MUCh further. Just here for the run it seems.
Thunderbird One: Only run last prep at course and distance had merit 4th to Akavoroun. NZ runner who has taken time to get into it over here. Has to be respected. Better to come over further also.
Ali Vital: Really like this horse but is best seen in easier grade mid-week. Needs further.
Lord Wimble: Very hard horse to rate at times. Never won first up or at track but likes the distance well enough. Not good enough on my ratings.
Our Hand of Faith: I like this runner. Measured up all last prep and made his way through the grades and finds best on Good ground. Both runs at this track were very prominent and the first up run saw him hit the line well. Can improve and looks a danger.
Under The Louvre: Continues to run huge races from the back and the step up to 1400m is perfect today. Last run at this distance was just 3.6L off Cosmic Endeavour who went on to win a G1. Was simply too far back that day on a leader biased track and was still huge. Has been crying out for a longer sustained run all prep over a bigger distance and gets it today. Rates to win.
Felidea: Hasn’t measured up at all this prep and very hard to see it occuring today.
Great Lane: Ran home very well off 60kg first up at Sandown. Hasn’t exactly measured up in this class previously but has shown the ability. Needs a peak performance.
By The Grace: First up run was good and will improve with extra distance. Has to improve again today to be a chance.
Late Charge: Most likely doesn’t run in this as has gone for the Group 1 but rates to run very well.
Comments: Under The Louvre is the best horse at this distance in the race for mine, but will there be enough pace? Desert Jeuney was HUGE last start to the line as well and will be coming late. Our Hand of Faith maps the best in the race and if improves will be there at the finish.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 8, 13, 14, 18
Strategy: Under The Louvre to win. Saver Our Hand of Faith. Potentially spec bet on Desert Jeuney also.
Rosehill Race 7 – Golden Rose
Almalad: Don’t rate him on the heavy track fail last start and look further back in form. Quality horse who runs strong times. Can win.
Scratch Me Lucky: Best run seen on slow over 1600m. Decent horse but not sure matches up with this quality of race to beat them all home. Shocked if won.
Hallowed Crown: Can’t fault him. Two wins on heavy were impressive and feel they wanted that again today. Still has huge ability off the wet ground and will be a threat.
Kumaon: Only win was on a Good track, but has been running well since on all types. First up run was very solid and will find improvement today. Looks a big chance.
Scissor Kick: Got gifted the win last start at course over 1300m when Better Land was a moral beaten. Looks a better horse back to the dryer tracks to mine and panzer has won since which backs up the form.
Nostradamus: Not a wet tracker proven last run. Back to a suitable surface and won well two back. Can sit near the front and win.
Modoc: Hard to have with the barrier and recent runs. Could top 5.
Bachman: Best run peak was on Heavy. Can’t have on previous form. Surprised got a run.
Sniper Fire: Just ignore first up run. Was very game actually until about the 200m then just fell out of it. Will gain alot of fitness from the run and most importantly finds a track that will be more suitable and won’t be ridden with a stupid tempo. Sneaky outsider chance.
Shooting to Win: Keeps finding a few too good this prep. Last start was an improved effort but has to find lengths today.
Sarajevo: Hype horse who hasn’t delivered. Keeps improving and improving but hasn’t secured a win and needs to improve again.
Better Land: Huge heavy run last start and should have won by 2+ lengths. Back to dead today is not exactly ideal but does run well on any surface. Has to be considered a big chance.
Bring Me The Maid: Won on a Good track first ever run at Flemington. Even though she won first up, i’m not sure she beat too much and it was on her surface of heavy. Back to dead, she looks exposed in this class field and at the price, I can’t be near her.
Ygritte: Snuck under the radar. 1L 2nd to Mossfun, 0.8L 2nd to Eloping and even last start still ran 1.3L 3rd to Hallowed Crown. Continues to improve and likes any track type. Maps very well. Player!
Press Report: Can’t see her measuring up here on previous form.
Comments: Can’t pass up Better Land who is flying while Sniper Fire is crazy odds.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Better Land to win. Also have a bet on Sniper Fire E/W
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