Welcome to The Profits Horse Racing form guide. Today we look at the full Flemington card while picking and choosing a number of key races at the Gold Coast and Hawkesbury meetings. While there were one or two results and a few close calls last week, it was one of our worst for a long time after two solid weeks. The month did end ahead, but not by very much. There is a fair bit of value to go around once again today and Danleigh is a must bet at the crazy overs up in Gold Coast for those who followed last start – what a massive run. As always, I hope my form stacks up with yours! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 7 Walk With Attitude
Next Best
Flemington Race 3 Strawberry Boy
Best Value
Flemington Race 8 Floatmyboat
Queensland Value
Gold Coast Race 6 Whateverwhenever
Gold Coast Race 8 Danleigh
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Flemington Race 1
With integrity the word being used throughout the week, this is a perfect example of a race where the trainer and stable know more than the average punter.
Dalton: Fairly average first up this prep. Times from last prep look average at best to me.
Breadline: Fairly average siblings. Price runner with Newitt booked is always a good combo though. Could this be the best thing since sliced bread?
Mutajara: Half-Brother to the 400k winning Mr Chard. Moody stable. Money will be around this runner.
Tumult: Not much in the breeding from siblings but the trial was sound and Snowden can train a first up winner… but if he was the real deal, you wouldn’t have seen a trial IMO.
Moparee: Strong run second up leading a fairly fast run race on a dead track. Down 1.5kg today which should suit. Wasn’t disgraced and could be better here.
Marvellous Choice: Nothing at all shown by the Siblings.. Hard to see without information.
The Messina Nympth: Would like to see money come for her if backing her. Trial was ok.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Mutajara looks the best on form.. but do you really want to have a guess? Watch in the yard and if the horse looks REALLY well and just looks good.. might be worth having a go.. but doubt it.
Flemington Race 2
Eraset: Poorly weighted here today compared to others in the race. Hard to see the win.
Gottino: Good win in lesser company at Bendigo last start. 3kg claim today but certainly has to improve to win.
My Bentley: Shown nothing both runs this prep. Down 1.5kg today but needs to find another gear.
Gail: Gone backwards the last two starts.. might may have just been the class as well? Weighted well back in this level of class and if produces best similar to three back, can go close.
New York: Probably better suited by the distance today than previous runs. Got too far back and didn’t show a hell of a lot last start. Look to run two back when there was MUCH harder speed up front. Needs luck to win today and pace on.
Secessio: Classy horse who looks better suited by further distances… but ran on very well first up. I wouldn’t be dismissing him here today.. Waller strike rate is very strong coming down to Melbourne.
Felidea: Ignore run two back and look to previous runs to see how well this horse is going. Very good win over Alrouz… but will the form line up after Alrouz failed next start?
Chile Express: Up in class last start, missed the start, ran wide in middle stages and was checked during the run… yet ran on for a very solid 4th behind Oregon Spirit. FAR better weighted today than Eraset only up 0.5kg back down in grade and rates to win.
Clanga’s Glory: Great run two back behind The New Boy and speed maps well. 1800m looked a little too far last start but may be suited by the 1600m. Should put in a solid run.
Rock Princess: Wrote her off last start due to the class of race, but this looks much easier. Not only is she down in class and up to a more suitable distance, but she is DOWN 2.5kg today and she did run fairly well for 5th. Will be hitting the line hard. Big chance.
Sweet Ella: Down 2kg today after a very nice run last start at Caulfield. Never placed at Flemington is a massive concern and failed here two back. Still, if produces best, can go close.
Full Hand: Close second last start to Devised who yesterday in the Wagga Wagga Gold Cup lost in a photo! Off 54kg today looks a MASSIVE price. Will certainly need luck and be hitting the line late.
Murdoch’s Joy: Hard to have off the weights and previous run.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Very keen on Chile Express here today and even more keen on the price.. but Rock Princess and Full Hand are over the odds as well (especially Full Hand).
Flemington Race 3
Hawks Bay: Brings some good form lines back from Darwin but you have to wonder if he can measure up here. Poorly weighted you must suggest at a distance that shouldn’t suit.
Parthian: Very strong start to finish run at Caulfield being run down late by Speediness. Down 3kg today after claims and that may be the difference.
Streets Away: A horse with LOADS of potential. Looks like it is struggling about 400-500m out but that is how it races. Ran a close 3rd last start over 1700m at Listed company so you would suggest off 57kg after claims that this distance isn’t the worst for him (having won once at it also). Does go well first up.
Offenders: Poor run last start at Caulfield behind Parthian and is 3kg worse off today.
Good Value: Surprised last prep by improving significantly including a win over Galah that was memorable. Off 54kg today and good first up form lines, you have to give him a big chance today.
Strawberry Boy: The question is, how good is he? Last preps start to finish first up run in a SUPER time at Warwick Farm smashing Keith’s Legacy by 2.3L was super impressive. No weight on his back today either.
Magic Me: Didn’t show anything first up. If returns to best form has a chance.
Ulundi: Average runner first up who hasn’t won since 2011.. but ran some good runs late in prep last start including 4th in a Group 3. Never won at distance.
Livigno: General Truce form. You know it has been holding up. Barrier 1 and gets a good position but never placed at 1400m?
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Strawberry Boy is a quality horse and I would be surprised if any of these could beat him today. Saver Parthian who showed a lot last start and is weighted well today.
Flemington Race 4
Precedence: Top weight. Ran well two back but failed last start. Hard to see the win today.
Zabeelionaire: Never a chance first up over 1400m but one would suggest off a 2L 5th to Alcopop last prep over this distance is much better suited today and is over the odds.
Lidari: Huge huge huge last start when had nothing go right. Duric off and Stackhouse on. Give it a good ride son and the horse should win.
Verdant: Poorly weighted today and will struggle to even place today. Looking for much further and weights an issue against these.
Whisper Downs: Continues to run well this prep and down 1.5kg today to 53.5kg after claims. Maps well enough and will be hitting the line hard. Don’t dismiss! Only issue is never won here at Flemington.
Cuban Sunday: Shown nothing this prep so hard to see how you could back him today. Looks unders.
Down Under Boy: One of those horses you find impossible to catch on his day. Weighted well enough today but has to post a personal best.
Stand To Gain: Not good enough for this. Back to the hurdles?
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Favourite Lidari looks a good thing while Zabeelionaire has to be respected and the price is overs.
Flemington Race 5
Black and Bent: The horse is a very strong hurdle runner but seems to have been waiting for this distance. 2 from 2 at this distance and 2 from 5 at track. Off 58kg after claims, looks a big price today.
Sky Raider: A fair bit of talk around this horse. Good form first up behind Pelicano but after that has been fairly average. Off 56.5kg after claims, probably a length or two short on form.
Unchain My Heart: Good win last start at Flemington (surprised me) and is only up 1kg today. Also meets Vittoria 1.5kg better off today for the 3rd at Moonee valley. Everything suggests she can go close to doing it.
Vittoria: Simply ignore last start on Heavy and look to two three and four back. Hopefully they take a sit today instead of leading and she can go VERY close. The extra 400m may be a little too much but you have to find out.
Gotta Keep Cool: Won 2 from 4 at distance but on previous form this prep hard to see the win even at weights.
Thubiaan: Meets both Vittoria and Unchain My Heart better off at the weights. Will once again be hitting the line hard and have every chance.
Compound: Hard to see the form turn around in this race off the weights. Others look better. Is a place chance.
Knucklemania: Loves a longer distance race but surely not up to this grade.
Pretty Adamant: Will put in another ‘average’ run and not measure up.
Taxi Joe: Disappointing last start. Can’t have here.
Retlaw Lad: Not in this.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg one: 4, 5, 7, 9
Strategy: Vittoria is a BIG risk today so we will be avoiding. If betting here Unchain my Heart to win and a smaller win bet on thubiaan.
Flemington Race 6
Jimando: Interesting runner who has won at distance previously and goes well second up. Weighted fairly harshly today but probably deserves it. Ignore first up run which wasn’t too bad when you consider positioned where not suited.
Fuddle Dee Duddle: Hard to see any turna round of form on first up run against these runners today… but she is a talented horse so you never know.
Hazard: Huge absolutely huge was her first up run. Was certainly suited by the pace and would love it again today. Speed maps to win.
Underestimation: Hard to see a turn around on form at the weights compared to last start.
Such Hope: Got further back than expected at a distance that didn’t suit. Undefeated from 2 runs at this distance.. but barrier 20 is certainly harsh.
Sumakaray: Ran well enough last start behind Elite Elle when just got too far back. Weighted VERY well today off 53.5kg after claims but will need to certainly improve again.
Arousing Suspicion: Suited by a strong pace out front, he ran on like a champion and blew them away. Only up 0.5kg today and it’s hard to look past him.. even though he didn’t beat much.
Clinton Affair: Strange run last start. Might be reasons to forgive but hard to have.
Liberty Rock: Strong mid-week win. This is a huge step up.
Subiaso: Ran very well at course, distance and class last prep. After 3kg claim today is 5.5kg better off today for that 1.5L 4th to Red Inca. Big chance if trained on.
Ava’s Delight: Beat SUper Cool last prep but hard to see win off first up run.
About Square: Last prep strong 1.3L 6th behind Lady of Harrods at Caulfield in 3YO-Gp3 over 1200m. If reproduces best form can contest today.
Digitalism: Suited to further distances but should run well on form lines.
Right To Roam: ran well enough behind Decircles last prep but this is harder.
Hirad: Poor run last start. Fairly disappointing and hard to see the form turn around.
Rock Vantage: Won’tmeasure up in this class.
Medvedev: Not good enough on last start run.
Nisos: Hard to see a win on firs tup run.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg two: 3, 5, 7, 11
Strategy: Looks a two horse race. Happy to back Hazard and Arousing Suspicion.
Flemington Race 7
Walk With Attitude: Absolutely huge run first up at course. Up 200m today suits and off 58kg after claims is very winable today down in class massively.
Mareeza: Up 2.5kg today after a very decent run behind Hazard last start and is down in class heavily. Only issue is form lines last prep around Walk With Attitude and got beaten heavily.
Formidable: Up 3.5kg today and looks hard against it on that form alone.
Vicario: Up 3.5kg today but looks to have a lot more upside than the others out of that race. Fair old spruk around.
Forever Crazy: Waller runner with Newitt on. First up and was off a few months. Looks good on previous runs but not sure will measure up to Walk With Attitude.
Prettyhappyaboutit: Meets Vicario 3.5kg better off today for 0.4L which seems enough. Good run 2nd to Vain Queen and should appreciate the straight again.
La Tikka Rosa: Ran very well at course and distance last prep but hard to back without seeing a run this prep.
Panzanella: Hard to see the progression in this class.
Spitfire Lady: Ignore last start and look to three previous runs. Still, needs to find a few more lengths.
Our Celladoor: Hard to see the progression in this horse.
Operation Twist: Not in this.
Princess Royale: Hard to see running a place on previous form.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie leg three: 1, 2, 4, 6, 8
Strategy: Backing Walk With Attitude very hard here. Looks weighted to win. Savering Prettyhappyaboutit.
Flemington Race 8
Bradman: Very big wins three and four runs back. Ignore two back run when injured and then last start in 3YO-GP3 was very solid behind Toydini. 58.5kg today and can go close.
Backstedt: Big run two and three back and then last start just found a few too good. Ran very well last start also and can go close today.. but barrier is the major issue.
Floatmyboat: Very unlucky not to win last start considering everything that went wrong. Big chance and close to top rated here. Get the feeling he is crying out for the long straight
Prince of Penzance: 1kg worse off against Float and Backstedt today and did do a fair bit wrong. Looks progressive but weight is against.
Saint or Sinner: Hard to see enough progression.
Bernie of Babylon: Only won a maiden and last start 2nd doesn’t look good enough.
Giddyup Kirky: Decent maiden win but won’t measure up.
Jumeirah Palace: Maiden winner and not in this.
Magnapal: Only down 1kg today which doesn’t look enough to overturn last start form.
Settlers Way: Only a maiden winner.
Sweet As Bro: No weight change today. Has to go further forward today than last start. Still a big chance if does so.
Cadel’s Gold: Maiden winner. No thanks.
Epic Choice: Weighted well and ran on well enough at Bendigo last start. Could sneak a place.
Mr Sommerville: Good win but this is much harder today.
Spenepi: Not up to this class.
Wowee: May have turned her form around. Good win two back and ran well enough last start but this looks beyond her.
Salisbury: Couldn’t even win a maiden.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 11
Strategy: Love the price of Floatmyboat here.Should be close to favourite on my ratings.
Gold Coast Race 6
This is a nightmare race for those looking to back a shorty with a good 8 chances in the race. How will More Strawberries return? Will Karuta Queen stay the trip out? Can a few runners bounce back 2nd up?
The one key runner that stands out in this race for mine is at a HUGE price.
Whateverwhenever had a HUGE last prep. She runs well at the 1200m and last prep won a Group 3 race in Caulfield beating Kings Rose. Goes very well at this class as well and handles any type of ground. Weighted well enough to win today and looks a huge price.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: 1 unit win 3 units place
Gold Coast Race 7
Keeping this race a little more simple. Hot Snitzel is the stand out here from Mahisara. The run of Hot Snitzel last start was simply massive and I would be very happy to back it up here. The only issue is the number of runners here.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: The place price of Hot Snitzel looks value enough. Not getting greedy here.
Gold Coast Race 8
Danleigh: HUGE run last start at Randwick. Three wide the whole trip and was the best of those going the outside to the line. Will stay the 1800m NO drama. Just needs to get in from barrier 12. Big chance today again and huge overs.
Ginga Dude: Hard to see the progression from first up run.
Foreteller: A huge chance today. better suited to the back in distance today and when you look at form lines, is one of the top runners.
Solzhenitsyn: beaten home by Danleigh last start. Looks to be under the odds but is still a chance.
Lamasery: Hard to see the progression on the first up unless gets the run of the race. Has good stats 2nd up and at distance though.
Lucky Luna: Doesn’t look good enough for this.
Lightinthenite: Very strong run two back behind Havana Rey but off 59kg no chance today.
Saint Encosta: Not in this.
Hour of Peril: Not suited by weight.
Transporter: Not suited by weight.
Light of Heaven: Ask yourself, what did she beat last start? She is a very good mare and will be there at the finish, but you must think that she is under the odds today compared to others proven at this distance and class.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Danleigh all day every day is a great bet here while Foreteller is a must bet also.
Hawksbury Race 6
Monton: Simply ignore last start and look to previous two runs at similar distances where 0.1L behind Shoot Out and 1L behind Havana Rey who would both be winning this race. Great value!
Speediness: Had the race run to suit at Caulfield last start and this looks much harder.
Beaten Up: Not shown enough last two starts this prep.
Merlin Mustang: Ran very well first up and can only improve second up. Down 4kg today and meets Keiths Legacy very well at the weights on a track better suited to his style.
Keith’s Legacy: This is much harder than he had been against recently. Only down 1.5kg. Still a chance.
Euryale: Hard to see the progression on the first up run.
Home on a wing: Not good enough.
Mouro: Hard to rate. Needs to find much more if you go off first up behind Keithy.
Zonza: Not good enough for this class first run in Australia.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Monton huge overs today. Backing with confidence.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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