Welcome to The Profits form guide for Saturday 18 May. Last week went a lot better than the previous week with the Next Best bet getting up and the Best Bet going close (the saver got up so it was money back) while the value bet didn’t produce the run we were hoping for. We look towards a full Flemington card today while looking at the races at Scone and also Doomben. As always, I hope you form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Flemington Race 8 Fulgur
Next Best
Flemington Race 4 Lidari
Best Value
Scone Race 4 Diamond Earth
Promotions
Doomben Cup
Like Foreteller or Lights of Heaven in the Group One Doomben Cup?
For the first $25 you bet with the Betfair Tote Extra Best of 4 product, your price on either runner (only one of them) will be boosted to $6!
Head to www.betfair.com.au/promotions to find out more about this and our other specials.
Think the favourite is your only danger in the Doomben Cup? Run 2nd to the favourite in any race at Doomben? Centrebet will refund your first bet on that race up to $100.
Find out more at http://centrebet.com/#Promotions
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Flemington Race 1
Dalton: Ran well enough last start at course and distance. Seems to enjoy the straight and looks well rated here.
Calcatta: Ran well and won last start in a very slowly run race in Adelaide. Previous race also very slowly ran. Doesn’t look a good thing to mine off times. Looks a lay.
Commands Riches: Average trial. Hard to have off that.
Eletto: Didn’t show enough last prep to suggest can get a win here.
Idol Factor: Nothing to go off but Newitt does have a good record in these types of races.
Laurin: Half-sister shown nothing. Hard to see the breeding going well enough in this classy race.
Our Sarastro: No family to go off. Blinkers on a positive for mine in a straight race. Cummings runner. Breeding looks good to me. Suggest may be overs.
Tawjeeh: Yard rates him but suggest needs a little further. Still a hope.
Ashleigh’s Reign: Half-sister shown nothing. Need to be much better than her.
Menage A Charge: Sat at the back of the field and ran on strongly with a furious pace set out the front. Shouldn’t be as far back today and looks a huge chance today.
Miss Steele: Kent runner with the stable going well. Half-brother won his last three in country class up in Queensland. Looks short on breeding through.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Menage A Charge and Our Sarastro stand out if having a bet here.
Flemington Race 2
Bradman: Wasn’t suited by 2000m. Back to 1600m where he looks suited and off 57kg off claims. Will sit further back today and be hitting the line late. Chance if runs up to best.
Underestimation: Ran 4th the last three runs but continues to improve and may be getting to his best here. Off 56.5kg after claim, he went very close last start. This does look a little harder though and he will need to improve again.
Excited Spirit: Didn’t measure up in this grade the two times he has tried. Last start Mornington win doesn’t look good enough to win this.
Right To Roam: Back to best distance today. Went very well winning first up and then progressed onwards. Weighted poorly today though is the only factor.
About Square: Didn’t run as well as expected last start when sat dead last. Should sit further forward today and be a big chance.
Bravado: Hard to see him measuring up coming over from New Zealand. Needs to be better placed than this.
Floatmyboat: Ignore last start where ran poorly. Back down in distance which suits today and will get cover from barrier 1. Need a bit of luck to get a good run but Newitt knows how to get these home.
Royal Island: Hard to tell how he will go here today. Impressive two back but last start was very poor.
Tronador: Didn’t measure up last start at Caulfield when didn’t go to the front. Probably won’t measure up here.
Beliveau: Form lines are actually quite decent. Weighted well today. Looks to be over the odds even though this is much harder than the last two starts.
Stars In the Sky: Hard to see the progression on last few runs. Weighted well enough though.
Medvedev: Need to find about 2 lengths that don’t seem there just yet this prep.
Desert Wizard: Won well enough in a maiden. This is a big step up.
Topkapi: Hard to see a win off form to date.
Tampere: Can’t win this off form this prep. Couldn’t win a maiden.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Not very keen on this race. Many chances and all look fairly even. Floatmyboat does look overs ridden for a bit of luck though.
Flemington Race 3
Walk With Attitude: Ran very well at course and similar distance last start when ridden cold and produced late. Last start did too much and fell out of it. Expect a better run today but has to get up a lot of momentum off 60kg to have a chance here.
Bloomingdale Miss: Very poor first up and hard to see the progression off the run and at weights.
Formidable: Led the whole race in a very fast time. Sectionals are solid. Up 3kg today in stronger class. Still every chance.
Vain Queen: Produced a very big win last start at course. Up 200m in distance today but down 1.5kg. Looks the one to beat.
Panzanella: Big run last start behind Formidable and meets 2kg better off today. May be value.
Legcut: hard to see the progression off first start.
Maglissa: Need to improve 2-3 lengths on last prep.
Return Journey: Hard to see a win off last two runs.
La Tikka Rosa: Poor compared to the potential she has shown in previous preps. Hard to see the progression.
Our Celladoor: Down 1.5kg after a very good run behind Formidable compared to Formidable and Panzanella going up in weight. Weighted to win.
Kamarla Rose: Very strong run behind Vain Queen. Giving up weight to vain today though is an issue.
Magnetic Queen: Ran well enough first up but this is much harder than a maiden. Up in weight today.
Mrs Hadlee: Ran well enough first up and is down 4kg today. Not the worst here but has to find much more.
Perfect Offering: On previous prep form could go close but first up was very poor.
This Lady Rocks: Poor run first up. Hard to see the win.
Rain Fast: Can’t win a maiden.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Vain Queen looks the one to beat here. Weighted well enough again while Our Celladoor looks the main danger.
Flemington Race 4
Lidari: Start to finish leader last start at Flemington.. and by the sounds of it Moody wasn’t happy the horse was ridden that way. Should take a sit today. I thought the horse good good enough sectionals and should have won if was good enough. Up 1kg today compared to Whisper Downs who is up 2kg. May need luck to get out though.
Whisper Downs: Clinical ride by Chad Schofield last start. Meets Lidari 1kg worse off today which may be the difference, but has every right to be in this once again.
Verdant: Looking for further than this you get the feeling. Can’t win off previous run.
Auld Burns: Loves the track. Look to runs two and three back over the distance. From barrier 4 will be sitting forward and potentially trying to control the tempo. Every chance at the weights.
Crafty Cruiser: Love this horse but has never won over 2000m. Needs further you feel. Never won from 12 starts at track.
Domesky: Not going well enough to go close here.
Rosello: Import who was very disappointing first up. Looking for further on that run but is weighted well enough today.
My Bentley: Last win was at course and distance last year. Down 4.5kg on that but isn’t going well enough it seems.
Secessio: Waller runners continue to go well. Not sure he is going well enough this prep but weighted well enough and could go close?
Turner Bayou: Weighted well enough today to actually run very well. If trained on could surprise.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Lidari is weighted to win today. Hard to bet against. Saver Whisper Downs if you are worried.
Flemington Race 5
Hawks Bay: Ran well enough last start but weighted out of this again. Being set for bigger and better races.
Streets Away: Blocked for run when it counted. Up 1.5kg today hurts but has the ability to run well again.
Extra Zero: Never won first up and only won once from 14 at track and once from 8 at distance. Needs further.
Constant Force: Very poor first up. Hard to see the progression here.
Another Prelate: Last prep kept running very well without winning. Down to 54kg today rates to win. Only issue is speed mapped position.
Le Remas: Simply not going well enough this prep. Back in-play if goes to the front today.
Ulundi: Never won at distance and is 1 from 10 at track and 1 from 15 at class. Ran well enough last prep but probably needs further.
Agrippa: I have a big opinion of him. I’m willing to ignore the first up run where frankly they ran him against the pattern and hope they push further forward today. Weigthed well enough and if you look at his form lines around Pago Rock and Speediness from two preps back, has the ability to win this.
Dayita: Hard to place. Weighted well enough and ran well enough behind Second Effort. Likes the distance and track.
Hollowlea: Ran well in a fairly average Sunday race. Much harder today.
Upbeat: Ran well enough last start behind Decircles. On a turning track now and will run well but this looks a lot harder.
Luckyi’mbarefoot: Not good enough on recent run.
Lethal Arrow: Meets Loot ‘N’ Run 1.5kg better off today. I have a strong opinion of this horse but is probably looking for further.
Loot ‘N’ Run: Good win at the Bool last start. Weighted well enough again today even though this is much harder. BIG chance.
El Divine: Didn’t run well enough last start to suggest can win this today.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie leg one: 5, 9, 10, 14, 15
Strategy: Loot ‘N’ Run is running great sectionals and deserves to be on top while Another Prelate down in the weight comes in well. Soft spot for Agrippa gets some cash at big odds also. Toughest race of the day.
Flemington Race 6
King Diamond: Just ignore last start when failed due to track. Goes well enough at longer distances. If produces best (which should be close to) can go close.
Escado: Huge win over in Adelaide when got fairly lucky. Looks to be progressive but this may be a tad beyond him. Still, don’t dismiss.
Stand To Gain: Last win was in a Group 1 over this distance, but on heavy back in 2011. Hard to see with no decent recent runs.
Gotta Take Care: Won very well three back over 3000m at Moonee Valley. Weighted to win today.
Thubiaan: Finally broke through for a win last start and will go close again today. Worse off at weights against GTC and UMH today though.
Unchain My Heart: Jumped poorly which probably cost her the win last start. Weighted better today and will go VERY close.
Altonio: Hard to tell if he will go close today. Looks nice at the weights but probably not good enough.
Wells: Hard to see the progression today at weights.
Bono Vox: Won well enough last start but this seems much harder.
Brungle Cry: Hurdle expert who puts in strong runs and was huge over 3200m hurdling last start. Weighted to wint his today if runs up to best.
Compound: Weighted well enough today but probably finds another few too good today.
Taxi Joe: Many suggesting he should have won last start. Ridden for luck, you need luck. Has a chance today, no doubt, but don’t fool yourself on last starts run.
Cottonwood Sky: Hard to see the improvement.
Knucklemania: Not good enough to win today.
Pretty Adamant: Ran well enough last start. Could be value if improves again.
Hackett’s Heart: Ran well behind Bono last start but weighted worse today.
Love Or Gold: Good hurdles win but hard to see the win in this class.
Retlaw Lad: Ran well last start but another who needs to find a few more lengths that aren’t there.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg two: 2, 4, 5, 6, 11, 13
Strategy: Unchain My heart with a bit of luck from barrier 3 should get the win today while Brungle Cry looks massive overs and Taxi Joe has to be savered if betting.
Flemington Race 7
Title: A horse with a load of ability but may struggle to finish off the race with the weight of 60kg. Still a big chance.
Shellscrape: Didn’t show enough first up.
Utah Saints: Going well enough to run well here but probably better suited to a turning track than a straight. Weighted poorly against others here IMO.
Testascana: Runs well enough fresh and likes Flemington. Hasn’t won in a long time though but can go close.
That’s The One: Huge form lines. Won twice at this track and goes well on a straight as well. Career best form and is ready to win. The one to beat today.
Gybe: Took months to finally get put into a race and then produced a fairly average run. Hard to see the progression today.
Shandream: Ran well enough in Open class over in New Zealand but this looks a step up.
By The Way: A horse that takes a few runs to get into stride. Put in some big runs last prep including at this course. Not sure how he will go on the straight but weighted well enough.
Petman: Hard to see the progression. Never won in class or at track.
Dash For Viz: Ran well enough two back and then last start also. Has to find a length or two more but does have it in him. Better deeper into prep.
Rememba Howe: Hard to see the progression from last two starts in Australia.
Mister Milton: Down 4.5kg today after a 0.2L 2nd at track to Decircles. May go close.
Johannapine: May want it a little wetter today.. but when you consider a 3.5L loss in the Oakleigh plate of 2012 as form lines and then a 0.5L behind Serene Star, you know this is a serious horse.
Perfectly Stunning: Ran well enough last prep to suggest can improve onwards this prep. Could be value.
Balzeus: Hard to see the training on for this today.
Bellissimo: Hard to see the win off weights today.
Confidence: 75%
Quaddie leg three: 1, 5, 8, 10, 12, 14
Strategy: I really think That’s The One is ready to win while Mister Milton impressed last start. This is a very open race but the price does look right in the race. Not sure we are getting overs or unders though.
Flemington Race 8
Eraset: Ran well enough last start to suggest is going well enough to run well again today. Big issue is the 60kg. From barrier 15 will be hard to get a good run though.
Oak Heart: Big run last start but this looks harder even though down in class. Can go close.
Gail: Weighted well here today and goes well at track and distance. Boss on board to give a charmed run. Only issue is barrier to get in.
Lordoftheparrots: Looking for further even though weighted well enough.
Me Hungi: Good win last start. and weighted well enough today. Could surprise and run very very very well.
Budai: Disappointing last start but better weighted today. Has the ability.
Tigerland: Surprised and got the win last start. This does look much harder today but he is weighted well enough today.
Royal Mail: Horse hasn’t shown us anything this prep.
Fulgur: Very strong 2nd from the back of the field off a tempo that didn’t suit. Beaten two back by Zevada who has Oneman Wolfpack formlines which seem to be holding up everywhere. Down 1.5kg today is just crazy. Weighted to win and look a VERY good bet today.
Alrouz: Love the horse but just is so inconsistent. Will go well but doubt wins here.
Nordic Duke: Good few runs but not in this class.
Full Hand: How good was he! We speced him at big odds and he almost got home late at big odds. Can run well again today from barrier 4.
First Course: Talented runner who was in much easier company last start. Weighted well enough today though.
Bashan: Hard to see any progression to win this.
Rapidus: Not good enough for this.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie leg four: 3, 7, 9, 12
Strategy: Fulgur looks the real deal and is massive overs at the current price.
Scone Race 4
No Looking Back: Super disappointing end to last prep. Suited by distance today but certainly up against it at the weights. Looks a lay today.
Single Style: hard to see the progression on recent two preps. No thanks from me.
Diamond Earth: A horse I have been watching closely. Have made a lot of money backing and also laying this filly in play. The horse doesn’t run out 1400m and actually did for once run out 1200m two back. Down 1kg today and will be pushing forward to hopefully take a sit, she is suited and will be VERY hard to beat. The price is value.
Genteel: Very poor run last start. Two back was good at Flemington but horses generally show better or worse performances on straight. Didn’t like the bend.
She’s A Stalker: Talented horse but not up to this on first up run. Can still place.
Centrepet: Hard to see this horse progressing to win such a strong race.
Shamrock Slipper: Very strong win in open class last prep but nothing this prep.
Omniscient: Can run well enough but others look better. maps well.
Rebel Dancer: Poor times. No thanks.
Short Shafted: Won 5 of 6 but all in country class. Hard to see measuring up here.
Magondo: Not good enough. Should run ok though.
Limitation: Not in this.
Confidence: 80%
Strategy: Diamond Earth is huge overs. Each Way all Day.
Scone Race 5
Decision Time: Looks to have progressed backwards the last two runs this prep. Off 60.5kg hard to see the win.
Skytrain: Keeps running well but off 60kg this looks a little hard for mine!
Riva De Lago: Last two runs have been huge and previous to that also huge. Weighted well enough from barrier 3 today and will be very hard to hold out.
Bold Glance: Simply not good enough on first up run. Never won 2nd up.
Fontelina: Two back ran very well behind Pierro but last start failed. Don’t dismiss today.
Sniper’s Bullet: 9YO now and hasn’t won first up in a while.. or won at all since 09! No thanks.
Instinction: Hard to see the progression here.
Said Com: Not going well enough it looks like.. too short a distance also.
Liveandletdie: Average at best last start and last prep. Not won for over a year. No thanks.
Agister: Ran well enough last start but prboably better suited to lesser company. Still value.
The Offer: Waterthouse import better suited to 2000+. Watch only.
Fedde: Hard to see measuring up here off recent runs.
Bereft: Ran very well 2.3L behind Keith’s Legacy last start. Needs to find a few more lengths today but has the ability.
Double Halo: Ran well enough last start but this is much harder.
Confidence: 80%
Strategy: Riva De Lago is value here while Agister is over the odds.
Doomben Race 7
Manighar: Ran well enough two back off the speed but last start not suited by going to the front. Should be ridden cold today. Hard to see the win though.
Danleigh: Just keeps running strong races. From barrier 6, expect he will be ridden for luck today and that is what he needs to get a win this prep. Will leave it all out there for sure.
Ginga Dude: Hard to see the progression here today. Doesn’t look good enough.
Foreteller: Huge run last start when probably just not too far back. Barrier 4 expect to position closer and will be hitting the line hard.
Lamasery: Doesn’t look to have enough upside for mine to beat home LOH or others. Hard from barrier 14 also to get a position.
Zabeelionaire: Can’t see the win here off first up run.
Lightinthenite: Had every chance last start and couldn’t produce.
Beaten Up: Good run but this is much harder than last start. Crying out for the distance but no thanks.
Lights of Heaven: Big run and win last start and continues to run well. Barrier 5 is perfect. The one to beat.
Secret Admirer: not going well enough to win this today. Could go close though.
Fibrillation: Big 2nd behind Kelinni last start but this is a difference race today. No thanks.
Zurella: Not going well enough. Pass.
Pimms Time: First up NZ runner. Very bad record of these here. Doesn’t look good enough on paper to me.
Hippopus: BIG BIG BIG win over 2800m at Flemington last start. Back down to 2000m prboably not suited.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Not jumping off Danleigh now or Foreteller. Both with every chance today while LOH is the one to beat.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
All of our information is provided free. If you want to show your support, if you are wanting to join a new bookmaker, please use our banners. Thanks.
Gamble Responsibly!
