Welcome to The Profits form guide for Flemington and Warwick Farm. We have two huge races in the Newmarket and Australian Cup while other Group 2 and Group 3s fill cards! A cracking day on offer and the best of the best are running around. Don’t be scared to take the short odds. As always, we hope our form matches up with yours. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Flemington Race 5 Norzita
Next Best
Flemington Race 2 She’s A Fox
Sydney Best
Warwick Farm Race 7 Bennetta
Best Value
Warwick Farm Race 8 Social Rank
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Flemington Race 1
Bulbula: Beat Montsegur home last time they met at Caulfield and is 1.5kg better off toda. Could be value.
Montsegur: Strong enough run last start at Caulfield. Better suited to leading up and should be doing that today.
Diva Dee: Ran well enough first two starts in first prep. Could have trained on well and go well.
Essie’s Pride: Last two runs ‘decent’ but this is a big step up.
Fine Diamond: Doesn’t look good enough for this class.
Anatina: Hard to see the progression to this class.
Snitzilla: Looks too big a step up.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: No need to start the day with heavy bets in such a race. Small win and saver if anything.
Flemington Race 2
Lankan Rupee: Failed last start at the highest level and went for a spell. Off 58kg today, will need to find a lot more than showed first up last start.
She’s A Fox: She looks to be an absolute superstar on previous two spells. They are taking it easy progressing her up the ranks, you get the feeling they know she is special. It will take something huge to hold her out.
Agueda: Strong enough form lines from last start but this step up in class is a little too hard to handle.
Angelic Light: Ran well enough last start at Moonee Valley when suited by the rail. Has ability and will be putting in a solid run today.
Crystal Web: Not sure if he is a horse for the Flemington straight. Didn’t show enough first up.
The Originator: Showed a great deal of talent first up and could be value here today. Times were solid.
Saturn Rock: Equal weight with The Originator today and some may suggest without the MV bias, should turn the tables. Can go close on previous runs.
Electric Fusion: Produced solid runs last start but isn’t a horse you are looking to back over this distance.
Dazzler: Has to have trained on 3-4L to win this today. Hard to see.
Flamberge: Disappointing the way he has returned this prep. No thanks.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Going in with a big bet on She’s A Fox and a smaller size bet on The Originator.
Flemington Race 3
Direct Charge: Ran well enough two back but was simply poor last start. Hard to have on that form.
Shamus Award: Progressed well last start to run 5th behind Miracles of Life. Can put in a good run.
Gamblin’ Guru: Average time in a decent first up race.
Rutherglen: Very strong time leading start to finish. Could run very well.
Weinholt: Got away with murder last start. Does look a good thing.
Epic Saga: Ran well enough to suggest improvement due this run.
Slew Left: Not on last two runs.
Consorting: Step up today.
Champollion: Hard to rate on heavy form but doesn’t look good enough.
Northern Jewel: Can’t have. Couldn’t win a maiden.
Great Esteem: Decent firs tup run. Hayes will have him right to hit the line well.
Parfuri: Don’t discount here today. Could be value.
Twilight Royale: Big win in a slowly run race last start at Mornington. Step up here but has the progression.
Politeness: Not good enough on last two runs.
Mubakkir: No.
Gravitational: Hard to have but progression may be there.
Mista Spot: No.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Not the most confident race of the day, but the prices for both our runners look value and may be worth a small win bet.
Flemington Race 4
Puissance De Lune: One of the best horses in Australia, champions resume and win in these types of races. Opened a HUGE $6 and straight into under $4.50. Has won at distance and will eat up Flemington. As long as jumps well, will have no excuse today.
Budriguez: Just Last three runs this prep have been big. Keeps progressing and last start ran very well. Down in class today and down 1kg.. has a big chance from out the front if measures up.
Mutual Trust: First up horse with a fair bit of talent. Need to show a bit to win this though.
Vatuvei: Hard to see the progression in this distance from first up run.
Dany The Fox: Absolutely HUGE last start but meets Wall Street 9kg worse off today. That is gobsmacking how the handicapper can do that. Hard pressed here.
Callanish: Down 2kg today is fair. Ran well enough to suggest can go close today, but needs to find much more.
Wall Street; Weighted to win. 1L behind All Too Hard two back and then 4kg below that run here today is more than enough to suggest can win.
Maluckyday: Best final sectional of day last start but still 5L off a win. Needs further.
Willy Jimmy: There is a tip out for this horse but I couldn’t back him today in this class. Could surprise.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Betting around PDL and Wall Street here at a 2.5 win and 1.5 win ratio.
Betfair Best from Daniel Bevan: Puissance De Lune
Flemington Race 5
Norzita: An absolute superstar of a horse who is weighted very well here. The one to beat and the price will be smashed in.
Members Joy: Keeps putting in strong runs but keeps finding horses to beat it. Better at Flemington.
Meliora: Got away with murder out front last start and progressed big time. Could be value.
Alzora: Very strong first up win this prep and will be hitting the line hard.
Flying Snitzel: Hard to see the progress when couldn’t get within 3L first up.
Balaclava Lady: Not good enough on two runs this prep.
Proper Madam: Not shown enough.
Red Fez: Not suited by pace last start and did beat You’re So Good 2nd up. Has ability.
Petite Diablesse: Unlucky last start behind Alzora. Meets 1.5kg WORSE off today as well which is the difference for this runner.
La Zuma: Not shown enough last start to back today.
Shilly Shally Miss: Not good enough.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Norzita is a superstar and should simply just be winning this. Meliora will be getting a VERY easy time out front so with the sectionals put down last start can potentially be there at the finish. I took the $1.90 on offer yesterday for Norzita, but would still be taking the $1.80 today if I was getting on.
Flemington Race 6
Luckygray: 5/5 at distance.. never been defeated. That is a fair effort. 4/4 first up as well. Has been going huge recently but will need to produce something even bigger today off the weights.
Moment of Change: Absolutely super first up. Won 3 from 4 at distance and weighted to win today. Price is value.
Ortensia: Best sectional last start but not surprising from so far back. Will need to find a lot more 2nd up.
Barakey: Rates to win today off weights, but will have to produce a huge run. Has won 11/11 so hard to be against.
Spirit of Boom: 1kg better off against Barakey from meeting in WA. Blocked for run last start but needs to run 1.5L better today.
Lone Rock: Not good enough on first up run.
Aeronautical: Not up to this even off weights.
Big Buddie: Hard to see him placing.
Fontelina: Big talk around this horse here today off 52.5kg. Spirit of Boom meets 1kg better off today and already had a run so hard to see Font winning firs tup.
Satin Shoes: No.
Undeniably: Showed enough progression to place but hard to see winning.
Better Than Ready: Big 3L win last start up in Queensland and down 5.5kg today. Weighted to win.
Shamexpress: Not up to this.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie leg one: 1, 2, 5, 13
Strategy: Moment of Change is a superstar.. but Better Than Ready is also flying and weighted to win today. I will be going VERY hard on MOC to win with a smaller size bet on BTR.
Betfair Tip from Daniel Bevan: Better Than Ready
Flemington Race 7
Green Moon: Battled on last start off the 59kg over the 1400m. I really don’t know what to make of the run. I expected a lot more first up. Off 59kg again today and has to overcome a HUGE weight hurdle.
Mourayan: Didn’t show enough first up to suggest can beat all these today.
Glass Harmonium: Huge run first up from start to finish. Always runs well at this distance and track.. last prep almost holding out Alcopop. If jumps well big chance!
Mr Moet: Ran on well last start from the back but should be better suited here today. Not been more than 1.3L off the last 5 starts.
Tanby: Ran within 1.8L last start and should be better off today. A quaddie inclusion for value.
Mawingo: Had the race run to suit last start and couldn’t finish it off. Has a chance once again today.
Foreteller: Snuck through late and pinched the win. This looks harder today.
Durnford: Looked up against it today off 59kg but should run well.
Niconoise: Good win last start but up 4kg and up in class, hard.
Invest: Ran well enough two back but weighted poorly in this class.
Fiveandahalfstar: Ignore last start. Should run much better today and I would be surprised if doesn’t finish better than Super Cool today. Still, will be very hard to beat the older horses today.
Super Cool: Happy to take him on today at the price.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg two: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
Strategy: Happy to bet around the two favourites here and opting for Mr Moet to hit the line hard. Glass Harmonium should be the one people need to pass.
Betfair Tip from Dominic Beirne: Green Moon
Flemington Race 8
Spirit Song: Fair to say she was unlucky last start. Ran on very well and got blocked for a run. Has wona t track previously and loves the distance.
Hi Belle: Absolutely SUPER finish last start in a slowly run race against the front running trend for the day. If produces similar to can win. Only issue is poor record at track.
Kasane: Hasn’t shown enough last two runs to suggest can win this
Storm Burst: Suited by up in distance today and always runs well at track. Could be value.
Never Forget: Hard to be on after last two runs.
Rose Pattern: Just keeps running strongly and down 2kg looks in well here today.
Bonaria: Not good enough this prep.
Perfectly Stunning: Got the lucky run and won well last start. Big step up in class here. Looks hard.
Epingle: Doesn’t seem suited to this class.
Thorn Star: Should run well on previous runs. Has huge ability.
Crimson Lady: Hard up against it here.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg three: 1, 3, 7, 10
Strategy: Secret Liaison out so very keen on Hi Bellehere now.
Flemington Race 9
Sanagas: Not good enough.
Centennial Park: Simply ignore last start and look to two back in WFA-G2 and has a serious shot. Screaming out for a Good track and weighted well. Could be value.
Star of Giselle: Slow pace out front and was suited last start. Will run very well today.
Shout Out Loud: Simply poor last start. Hard to back today.
Shanghai warrior: Not good enough this prep.
Sheila’s Star: Has returned well enough to be winning this today off last start run. Big chance.
British General: Simply huge last start. Did so much work sitting 2 wide and was game to the line. DOWN 1kg today and that would have been the difference last start. VALUE.
Goldoni: Hard to place. Has ability.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg four: 3, 5, 10
Strategy: With the scratching of Fawkner, Am very keen on British General today.
Warwick Farm Race 1
Fairly average race to start the day, but Award Season is certainly the stand out in this one.
Confidence 70%
Warwick Farm Race 2
Hard race and most likely not worth getting in. Havana was very impressive trialing while In Cahoots has run well enough last prep, Va Pensiero was great first up winning while Whittington did enough first up to suggest can go close.
Confidence 60%
Warwick Farm Race 3
Steps In Time returned in brilliant form first up. Should improve on and be very hard to beat here today. Is very short so hard to bet at the price.
Confidence 75%
Warwick Farm Race 4
Very open race. Under The Sun deserves to be a short price fav. Mr Edison looks a little harshly weighted here today but will still be coming late. Interested to see how Pirate Bay runs today and suspect Zedlion can go close.
Confidence 65%
Warwick Farm Race 5
Have this race down to the top two in the race. Mid Summer Music runs very well first up and is suited here while Riva De Lago is running super times.
Confidence 80%
Warwick Farm Race 6
Pretty much every runner here has a chance. You either need to avoid or go wide here with a few selections. Manighar never missed a place first up is interesting. Ignore first up of Glencadam Gold run. Will go much better today, but is probably looking for further. Havana Rey is a huge price. The times he has put down the last two runs all things considered.. a massive chance today. Silent Achiever showed enough first up to suggest can win today also.
Confidence 70%
Betfair Value Bet from Daniel Bevan: King Mufhasa
Warwick Farm Race 7
Bennetta stamped her claim as a genuine superstar last start. Happy to be all around her here today.
Confidence 85%
Warwick Farm Race 8
Social Rank is highly underrated. I have him rated as a genuine superstar on his day and is weighted to win today. Goes well first up.
Confidence 75%
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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