Welcome to The Profits form guide for Flemington and Warwick Farm on 8 March 2014. The Newmarket is here already! Boy the time has flown to get us this far into March already. Today will mark the end of the Melbourne carnival and eyes will shift to Sydney from next week. We have a tough card on our hands to say the least today. Last week went very much to plan landing a decent paying quaddie for a nice percent and the Best Bets performing well. With the promotions on offer today, you need to focus on the runners you know will be best placed in those promos, be strategic! This years Newmarket looks the most open I’ve seen in a long time. I have 9 horses who can win it while I struggled to get it down past 4. It will come down to the wire on my predictions, but our top pick is currently out to $12s and is over the odds. I’m hoping to get down to the track today so keep an eye on twitter for on-course updates! As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Flemington Race 8 Sertorius
It takes an eye-catching run to make me take notice of a horse and that is what Sertorious did first up almost running down our Best Bet when the horse had no right to finish within 3L after missing the start. Fit, ready and wants Flemington! This is a step back in class today and excluding one of the internationals progressing a length more than ratings suggest, he wins.
Next Best
Flemington Race 7 Fiorente
There are many opposing him in the market including the bookies. They did this last start as well. Shamus Award is stepping back up to WFA-G1 company and I am VERY happy to take a 3YO on at these weight scales, even with his talent. Fiorente is the right price and there are great promotions on all around the place!
Best Each-Way Bet
Flemington Race 2 Gregers
Flashed home in Group 1 company behind Lankan Rupee as one of the runs of the race off 51kg. Up 7kg today but back to 3YO-LR company is the key. How often do horses that run very well in ‘open age’ company go back to their own grade and win? Quite often. The only concern today is the straight, but she seems to handle long straights just fine. The price is over the odds and a great E/W bet.
Value runners on the card today
Flemington Race 5 Suavito
Flemington Race 7 Mourayan
Flemington Race 3 The Spitfire
Runners who based on statistics are over their correct odds today and should give us a good run for our money.
Flemington EARLY Quaddie (Races 2-5)
Early Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 6, 13
Early Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 11, 12
Early Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 7
Early Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8
Flemington Quaddie (Races 6-9)
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 8, 10, 14
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 8
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 9, 10
Quaddie Leg Four: 4, 7, 8, 9, 11
Promotions
TAB
HUGE! TAB have guaranteed a $3,000,000 Quadie pool at Flemington! Wow. Double stakes for me today.
Back Fiorente to win in the Aus Cup but run 2nd or 3rd? Up to $50 Bonus Bet matched at value of your stake
Sportsbet
Back a horse to Place in the Newmarket Handicap on Sportsbet and if it runs 4th, you will be paid out to a maximum of $200! This promotion only counts towards your first two place bets are eligible, but obviously the maximum payout is still $200.
Sportingbet
Back a horse in the Australian Cup and if your horse loses, but finishes within a length of the winner, your money will be refunded up to a maximum of $100.
Ladbrokes
Money back if your horse backed to win in the Newmarket places – Maximum $50 bet
$3 for Samaready, Shamexpress or Lankan Rupee to win the Newmarket – Maximum $50 bet
Bookmaker
Back a runner in the Chipping Norton Stakes but run 2nd to It’s A Dundeel? Matched stake bonus bet rewarded up to maximum $50 bet
$3 for Samaready, Shamexpress or Lankan Rupee to win the Newmarket – Maximum $50 bet
Betfair – Power of Five Promotion
You can Opt into Two of the Five promotions.
1. Fiorente Fill Up:- Grab a 25% boost on Fiorente in the Australian Cup. (Max Stake $50 – Tote Extra product).
2. The Return of Bernie:- Get your money back if Dom’s best of the day, Catkins is unplaced. (Max Stake $25 – Tote Extra product).
3. Price’s Pair:- Back Lankan Rupee or Samaready in the Newmarket and if your horse wins, receive the 30% Betfair Racing Owners’ Club bonus. (Max Stake $25 – Tote Extra product).
4. Chip Off The Old Block:- Money back if your horse runs second in the Chipping Norton Stakes. (Max Stake $25 – Tote Extra Product).
5. Sydney Quaddie Boost:- Get a 25% boost on the quaddie at Warwick Farm (Maximum bonus of $200).
Unibet
Double winnings on Fiorente and It’s A Dundeel (maximum of $100 winnings).
PalmerBet
Money back for 2nd or 3rd in all Sydney Group Ones this Autumn Carnival (max back up to $100)
Betstar
Run 2nd or 3rd in the Australian Cup or Newmarket Handicap and get a Free Bet Reload equal to your stake up to $50
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1
Ygritte: Won in a fairly strong time in her maiden first up and then last start 1L behind Mossfun who proved to be something very special last week in the wet in the Silver Slipper. If she handles the straight race today, she will be very hard to beat!
Top Sight: Won well enough first up and then at Caulfield last start at Caulfield 3.3L behind Earthquake looks solid enough form lines. Can surprise a few.
Singularity: Returned poorly this prep after placing in 2F-GP3 company. Hard to have on first two runs.
Bella Roma: Average first up and then last start in maiden grade found one too good. Hard to have.
Domino Vitale: Ran well enough first up but this is a much harder race. No thanks.
Muscovado: Did alot wrong first up and has to be forgiven.. but how many does Gai send down, to run the straight, and they win? Very very very rare. Wasn’t backed first up either.
Thalia: Won her trial at Cranbourne well and certainly caught the eye. Come up fairly short in the market as well. A clear chance and Oliver takes the ride.
Taste of Money: Probably has to be considered a forgive run first up when slow away and lost ground. Still ran on for 4th but didn’t go close enough. Not the worst here.
Clifton Red: First up runner who has trained on well according to the stable. Hayes couldn’t split the runners so hard to be on either.
Tahni Dancer: Jumped slowly first up and then didn’t get clear running. Was backed enough first up to suggest can run better today.
Comments: Ygritte has put down the sectionals required to win this class of race and everything seems to be suited. Only loses to something more progressive today.
Confidence 70%
Exotics: 1, 2, 7, 9
Strategy: Ygritte to win.
Flemington Race 2
Thermal Current: Smashed by Notlistenintome last start but that horse looks to be a star as you know.. so is a 4L loss that bad? Probably not. Back in class today and weighted nicely enough. Can win.
Gregers: Clearly the one to beat. First up run 2L 4th in Group 1 company at Caulfield over 1100m. Last prep over 1200m down the straight ran a 1.3L 5th to Charlie Boy, so is proven down the straight. Weighted well.
Never Can Tell: The unknown of the race. Showed enough last prep to suggest he is a good colt and can run a solid clip. I can’t be on today though first up.
Montsegur: Average at best first up falling out very quickly. Others preferred today.
Anatina: Has shown that she can run on any type of ground which means she is one to follow forward. Won a similar race at course and over 1000m last prep in a decent clip. Ran ok after that but was a little disappointing. If returns at her best, can test some of these.
Melrose Place: I like her. Her win at course and over 1200m was very solid last prep. She was never losing that day and was given a great ride. Tougher class for sure, but has the ability to win.
Awasita: Did nothing wrong throughout 2nd prep and even won down the straight here. Time was only average though. Should run well today but not the best weighted horse. Can win but about the right odds.
Politeness: Fairly disappointing last prep not notching up a win outside of average grade. Hard to have today down the straight in this grade.
I Am Titanium: Did nothing wrong last prep. 2.3L 5th to Lion of Belfort is good enough form backed up by a 2nd and 5th to Paximadia over the 1400m and 1600m. Showed best at 1200-1400m. Probably needs another run or two.
Tango’s Daughter: Didn’t show much last prep after some impressive wins in previous prep. Hard to have in this class.
Shades of Bella: Two runs this prep solid but this is beyond her.
Son Senoras: Golfing won last night to frank the form a little. Didn’t show me enough first up to back, but the money has been steady which suggests someone is confident. Have to include in Quaddie leg.
Hard Stride: Good enough horse on previous form but outclassed here.
Comments: Very keen to be on Gregers here today. Amazed we can get E/W odds as well. Thermal Current the top threat for mine.
Confidence 80%
Early Quadie Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 6, 13
Strategy: Gregers E/W. Smaller win bet on Thermal Current.
Flemington Race 3
Boomwaa: Ran home very well 5th behind Earthquake in the BD. Last win was down the straight at course. Up to 1400m today the issue for mine, but looks suited considering he covered about 1300m in the BD being so wide. Weighted so well.
Marcado: Won well first up at course over 1100m. Barrier hurts today and will be coming from the back.. went very well at the 1100m so was a strange choice to run in this distance race today? Suited by up in distance?
Awesome Rock: Won well enough 2nd up in much easier company than this is an average race time. Can improve again and run well today, but others appeal more for me.
Zululand: Ridden cold all prep, has run well without going close. Back in class today, can run a good race at odds.
Red Letter Day: Maiden only winner who didn’t measure up down the straight last start. Thrown up in distance.. not good enough on form we have seen.
Hawking: Didn’t measure up first up and then won well enough in a maiden race 2nd up. Can’t see in this at weights.
Malaguerra: Shown us nothing since impressive enough first up win in much easier grade. Magnus? Hard to have at 2yo.
Valdez: Couldn’t place in all 4 runs. No thanks.
Glenrowan Prince: Not the worst runs this prep all things considered but hard to have after failing to claim a maiden and on breeding.
Say My Name: Hard to have this one at all even to place on previous runs.
Stratum Star: Ran well enough two back at Caulfield and has to be respected. Just ignore the BD run and rate on two back when flew home. Up to 1400m looks suited and is big value today.
The Spitfire: Hayes was very keen on this colt when interviewed about his runners for the weekend after his stable interviewer was going to overlook the horse. Said the sectionals put down in training have been quality. Williams takes ride. Big chance at odds as well.
Comments: For mine, Boomwaa is clearly the best horse in this race. He goes well at the track but is obviously a concern up in distance today. Barrier suits. The Spitfire from barrier 1 and Stratum Star from the back of the field look the blow out chances.
Confidence 75%
Early Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 11, 12
Strategy: Keen to back Boomwaa to win. Smaller bets on Stratum Star and The Spitfire.
Flemington Race 4
Bonaria: Will be given another no thrills ride today you would expect. Last two runs have been impressive and no reason why she won’t win again today. Odds look right today.
Keep De Rose: Missed the start and didn’t run on very well all things considered first up. Undefeated at 1600m and runs very well always at this track. Also runs MUCH better 2nd up when you consider had never won first before either. We saw her best over 1600-200m last prep. Maps very well.
Hi Belle: Returned to her best last start at Caulfield with a very solid run behind Bonaria. Giving her weight today though looks a little unfair and 7 runs at track for no wins. Could place.
Bippo No Bungus: Two runs back behind A Time for Julia run was impressive enough to suggest she could run well today. Didn’t show much last start at Caulfield but should improve over 1600m with the long straight… not sure the speed will be on for her though. Oliver on is interesting.
Text’N Hurley: Won well enough last start at MV just, with a protest against dismissed. Back to 1600m today suggesting the yard don’t think she was suited at the distance. Never runs a bad race. Weighted well here.
Are There Any: Continues to run well without putting a foot wrong. Gains 1kg on Text’ N Hurley today which is key. Good win at course and similar distance last start as well. Barrier only concern to get a clear run.
Angelic Lass: Improved significantly last start at Caulfield when was able to control the pace out front to suit. A wet tracker for mine.
Godspiel: Decent horse, not in this grade.
Comments: Open race with quite a few chances. Are There Any has done nothing wrong all prep but will she measure up to this class? I think so. Bonaria the key threat and gets savered.
Confidence 70%
Early Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 7
Strategy: Are There Any to win. Saver on Bonaria.
Flemington Race 5
Miss Rose De Lago: Ran home well enough first up but was given the charged run and still had a few beat her home. Don’t dismiss the run, it was good. Can win but needs a few things to go right.
Solicit: Superstar. Run last prep in the Group 1 was sensational. First up run was AS good at course and distance. Continues at this distance today and weighted oh so well. Very hard to beat and the price IS right.
Marianne: Very disappointing to see her get done last start. Much harder race today but has claims off the runs.
Diamond Glow: Two runs post 1000m impressive run have been average at best up in this class. No thanks.
Suavito: Very very very impressive last prep. Very unlucky in the Spring not to win over 1400m here. Very well in this race today. The key danger to the fav for mine.
Sensibility: Showed nothing first up. Hard to suggest backing today off that run.
Girl In Flight: Couldn’t match it with Solicit last start and hard to see her turning that around.
Star Fashion: Very very very easy winner in a 1440m maiden at Geelong by 6L. Form last prep was very solid including going close to Kirramosa as well. Hayes suggested the fav will be hard to beat here but sounded confident of placing.
Saralago: Running well enough up in Sydney recently but this is a massive step up. Not for me.
Patricia Dawn: Missed start and blocked first up, 2nd up lame. You can’t dismiss her but seems to be having too many excuses? Place price looks over the odds.
Critical Angel: Ran well enough behind Solicit last start from the front. Won’t beat her today.
The Special Two: Poorly weighted today especially against Miss Rose De Lago. No thanks.
Holy Cow: Could be something special based on first prep but failed as $1.3 favourite in a maiden first.. i couldn’t have at the price.
Comments: Is Solicit the best horse in the race? Yes. Should Solicit win? Probably. Are there other horses who have huge progressive potential? Yes.
Confidence 75%
Early Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8
Strategy: Medium sized bet on Solicit. Smaller sized bet on Suavito.
Flemington Race 6
Moment of Change: Sloted home another Group 1 last start over the 1400m.. but has he beaten the last two runs is the question? Eurozone and Sertorius? Serty was looking for further. One thing is for certain, he never runs a bad race and always goes close and will be there in the finish again. Never missed a place at this track.
Lankan Rupee: Got his Group 1 last start at Caulfield and didn’t have to lead. The times run were solid and that suits him. Will be out the front and hard to run down.
Samaready: Ran very well last start over the 1000m and up to 1200m looks suited today. Giving a few weight today but 2nd up will be very hard to beat today taking a sit behind Lankan Rupee from the barrier.
Shamexpress: Weighted to go very close today. Meets Samaready 2kg better off at the weights on last start run. The issue for me today with Snitz is the barrier. Will he get a clear run? Will he get carted into it like last time with most of the pace on the other side of the track? Hard to suggest he won’t go close and is a key chance today.
Fontelina: Very good horse. Measured up in Group 1s and 2s last prep.. but first up in a Group 1, was found out by the best last prep and will again I suspect.
Spirit of Boom: 1.5kg better off today against Lankan Rupee and flew home. Always goes well at course and distance but finds one too good. Suspect it happens again today.
General Truce: Just ignore last start and rate on two and thre eback runs. Weighted nicely. Could very well place at the weights.
Pago Rock: This horse is flying. Ran very solid behind Snitzerland and Hayes is very excited and thinks the horse can win. Meets Samaready 6.5kg better off today and Shamexpress 4.5kg better off. Barrier 15 so he should get clear running and get a sit behind the speed makers. I’d love to see them position slightly closer to the speed today if possible, but he can win!
Unpretentious: Well down in the weights today after a very solid run first up. Meets a few here well off at the weights. Slight chance.. you can’t count him out at the weight.
Knoydart: Missed start and lost all chances last start at Caulfield. Was huge from the back and meets Lankan 1.5k better off today. Will sit much closer to the front and if he handles the straight track, he goes very close.
Albrecht: Ran well enough first up. Down in weight and can improve again today, but based on all the stats we have about the horse, finds a few too good today.
Flamberge: Fairly unlucky last start at Caulfield. Goes well down the straight and won very well two back in Group 3. This is much harder and won’t have such as easy time. Barrier means will be right there.
Mister Milton: Outclassed here.
Bernabeu: Just ignore first up. Didn’t handle the rain that came. Down to 50kg and this was the aim all along when you consider the horse is 5-6kg better off against a few key rivals today.
Va Pensiero: Decent horse who didn’t measure up down here at end of prep. Hard to back today first up.
Comments: How open is this race? I have 9 horses who can win in my list. I came into the race thinking I would have Samaready on top, but at the weights, I just can’t. I think she gets the right run, but weights play an important part in this race always. My final 4 that I got serious on were Shamexpress, Pago Rock, Knoydart and Bernabeu.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 8, 10, 14
Strategy: Knoydart to WIN. Smaller bets on Pago Rock and Bernabeu.
Flemington Race 7
Fiorente: Superstar and was a very impressive win last start at Caulfield. The run DOES suggest that he WANTS much further though which is the MAIN concern. Meets Shamus Award 5kg better off today though is a key for mine compared to Cox Plate run. Will be ridden with cover about 4 rows back which means he will be close enough to win.
Green Moon: Doesn’t carry weight! Another run with 59kg another non-placed run. To be fair though he actually ran well again. Can he win today? I wouldn’t back him, he is better down in the weights!
Mourayan: I think you have to believe this horse has turned a corner on the last start run 0.1L behind Fiorente. From barrier 2 today probably gets covered up behind Shamus Award and should get a run as Shamus kicks in the straight. The price is big overs on the last start run!
Foreteller: Ran well enough last start but didn’t impress me. His not going as well this prep as last prep. Needs a few more runs.. but these races don’t seem to be his main aim.. tuning up for Sydney!
Star Rolling: Rolled along out the front last start but won’t have such an easy time today with Shamus in the Race. Very much a cat.
Voleuse De Coeurs: Couldn’t touch her over this distance based on her career wins. Needs the run.
Let’s Make ADeal: Hard to have today based on all previous form.
Shamus Award: The main danger to Fiorente on form. 3YO moving back up to WFA-G1 company.. giving Fiorente 5kg today? Happy to take him on AGAIN.
Thunder Fantasy: Ran home nicely last start behind Shamus Award. Will be better for the run and will be coming from midfield today. Not sure he has the explosive zip required to chase down Shamus or out sprint a few here.
Comments: Fiorente should drift in markets and be a very nice price.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 8
Strategy: Fiorente to win. Smaller win bet on Mourayan.
Flemington Race 8
Sea Moon: We saw how he Sea Moon ran first up last prep.. took a few runs to get into it especially needing further.. but most importantly, needed Good ground was probably the other key? Can run well but others look better placed today for my eye.
Sertorius: Huge run last start in WFA-G1 over 1400m. Up to 1600m suits today. Jump well, wins today.
Sweet as Bro: Continues to run well and Taiyoo backed up that form. Quality horse but very poorly weighted today.
Hvasstan: Gelagotis runners going very well right now and the horses are generally well placed.. but this does look a fairly strange booking of a race. No thanks.
Desert Jeuney: Ran well enough 2nd up but hard to have at weights up in class.
Lidari: Disappointed first up. Up to 1600m but can’t have off that first up run.
Stipulate: Hayes yard seem to think he has a bit of ability, hoping he shows something, but the main aim is the Sydney carnival. Looked a little fat in the video I saw.
Foundry: Very brave swooping win off a slow tempo first up. Up to 1600m helps and will be hitting the line hard.
Comments: Sertorius is the real deal and looks very hard to beat in this race.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 9, 10
Strategy: Back Sertorius to win.
Flemington Race 9
Sneak a Peek: Never won or placed at distance. Better over 2000m+
Banca Mo: Some very solid runs last prep before needing some chips removed and being off 10 months. Talented horse who can run well at this distance but seems better suited to further. Weight an issue for mine today.
Smokin’ Joey: Hard to have him off the first up run. Didn’t quicken when should have. Take on trust.
Shoreham: Won previously at course and distance in this class, last prep first up infact. Continued on with it and showed best over 2500m in Group 2. Weighted well enough but others appeal more for mine.
Escado: Looking for much further and less classy races if you ask me.
The United States: First up runner who looks well weighted. Last start was a WFA-G3 win in Ireland over 2000m. Won previously over 1400m and showed enough over different distances. The weight is the appeal today.
Koonoomoo: Unlucky not to go close to winning last start blocked for runs. Barrier 9 today, will have every chance to get that run today. Two runs this prep have been great. Can win.
Rhythm To Spare: Won last prep at 1400m and then progressed onto the 1600m races and ran 1L 3rd to Mouro and then 1.8L 7th to Boban in Group 1. Weighted super well today and is a big chance.
Finishing Card: Never runs a good race and weighted well enough today. Won at distance in this company three back but I suspect that this is a much harder level of race. Can run well.
Sistine Demon: Finally got run down last start in the Kilmore Cup worth double this prize money today. So really, back in class today. If the rail is playing fair, he will be bloody hard to run down once again today. 4/4 at distance and 2/3 at track.
Coronation Shallan: Ran well enough first up and never run outside 2nd. but this is a massive step up in class. Could run well enough.
Comments: Tough way to finish the day. A few key chances here.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 4, 7, 8, 9, 11
Strategy: Koonoomoo to win.
Warwick Farm Race 4
An interesting race with quite a few progressive runners.
We saw Wistful down in Melbourne last prep where she won very well at Flemington before being ridden 3-wide and still running a top-class run at Caulfield. Similar class today and looks very well in at the weights. 2/2 on slow.
Sharnee Rose can probably be forgiven for firs tup run but wants it dryer if you ask me.
Fire Up Fifi ran well enough in Listed grade to resume over 1200m. Up to 1400m suits as you would expect and weighted nicely today.
Catkins is the favourite today and should improve significantly up to 1400m from the first up run. Goes well on any surface and never runs a bad race. Good barrier today helps!
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Medium sized bet on Catkins. Smaller size bet on Wistful.
Warwick Farm Race 5
The most simple race of the day. With the weather predictions and current rating of the track, you have to look for the runner who is suited on wet. It’s A Dundeel‘s peak run if you ask me, would be where he beat Atlantic Jewel at Caulfield on a wet track. He gets that today. Barrier is the only issue. Prize is juicy all things considered.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: It’s a Dundeel to WIN.
Warwick Farm Race 6
Bloody tough race with about 6 chances.
A few good runners with wet form, but it is really hard to ignore El Roca off last start run. Will he measure up thought stepping up out of age only races?
Pinwheel should run well with the top weight and enjoys wet ground.
White Sage looks a good type and should try and lead today after not being suited to taking a sit last start.
The big value in the race looks Cameo. Massive questions if she will handle the ground, but maps very well and 1L 2nd to Catkins last prep surely works out as good form? Snowden would scratch if the horse won’t handle it.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Call me crazy, very small E/W on Cameo the only way I could play here.
Warwick Farm Race 7
Guelph was given a very poor caretaker ride last start by Bowman and given no chance to win. Shocking. Pulled up with Lacerations as well. Barrier doesn’t improve chances today jumping from 13. Distance increase suits. No form on slow!
Sweet Idea continues to run well this prep and is going to be hard to beat again today.. Barrier hurts, but will get to the front and be hard to pass.
Gypsy Diamond looks very well in today up to 1400m and on a slow track where she has won in the past.
Arabian Gold is the one who caught my eye last start. Will position further forward today from an inside barrier, step up to 1400m and a wet track where she is undefeated (slow or heavy from 3 tries), looks blowout chance.
Comments: Couldn’t attack this race with any great confidence
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Arabian Gold E/W
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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