Welcome to The Profits Saturday form for Flemington and Rosehill. Last weekend saw us last two very healthy Quaddies at $5.5k and $2.5k on Saturday and Sunday. Our Best Value on Saturday also went very close to winning at big odds while our best bets failed to get there on the line. Overall, Flemington last week was one of the best handicapping jobs I have ever done. It certainly looks a hard effort to repeat. With rain overhead, it is always a tough one to cap this week and the fields look a little worse overall and a little harder to judge, especially these early races. It’s not often you see me go so low on confidence, so pay attention to that.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 3 Edgewood
Next Best
Flemington Race 6 The Cleaner
Best Value
Rosehill Race 8 Nicholls Court
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Flemington Race 1
Walk With Attitude: Ran well first up last prep and then two runs past that were horrible. Weighted harshly today but if finds best can go well.
Agulhas: Hard to see the win here after last two runs. Boss on board interesting?
Legcut: Good win two back and then ran well enough last start. Poorly weighted today up 5kg from that run, but will enjoy the rain that hit the track yesterday.
Sinhala: Hard to see the progression from last start to this start in this class.
Good and Hot: Only just won a R-68 at Geelong. Hard to see measuring up here.
They Call Me BOlt: Hates it wet and form lines don’t look strong enough for mine.
Yuleba: Very poor last prep after winning in country. Won’t measure up today.
Easy To Look At: Not winning here off previous runs.
Daylight Second: Ran well enough first start last year. Long time off but at weights has every chance if reproduces and improves. If backed in market, watch the filly fly!
Fishtale: Hard to see measuring up to class.
It’s Poets Day: Ran well enough last start but needs to improve again today. Not out of this.
Cannes Destination: Hard to see progression for this.
Pretty Possum: Needs to find about 2-3L today.
Stone Lucky: Not in this.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Daylight Second looks the most interesting runner here. Hard to bet on this race but Daylight Second should be well backed and that is money you can follow.
Flemington Race 2
Resistant: Ran well here last start and down in class today. Has every chance from barrier 1 which suits.
Under The Louvre: Solid win at Caulfield last start and barrier suits today. Needs to progress again.
Late Charge: Won an average maiden first up. Not sure he measures up here.
Magnaro: Strong 2nd last start at MV and if needs 1400m will be suited today on form. Barrier only issue.
Worth A Ransom: Led start to finish last start in an impressive win. Can repeat here today.
Avalances: Solid start to finish win last start at geelong. Would prefer a dry track today.
Impecable Me: Hard to see measuring up.
Purrcolate: Not in this.
Traditional: Blocked for run last start and almost unlucky not to win. Needs to jump well but could get a solid position.
Razzle Dazzle Rock: Very green run last start and will only improve on that. Hayes liked the horses chances.
Time To Test: Solid enough but others appeal.
Mystical Miss: Good win last start by 2L but this is much harder. Did lose a plate as well. Does appeal.
Our Miss Bossy: Good runs over in Adelaide and should measure up well enough here.
Walkingintheair: First run. Market your guide.
Liberty Leader: Not winning.
Testa My Polish: Not winning.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Open race. So many unknown factors. Mystical miss and Resistant both look solid chances.
Flemington Race 3
Longeron: Step up again today after winning 3 in a row. When defeated first up, horse has proven to be solid. Testing material today but looks sound.
Quick Snitzel: Ran well enough last start but has to find lengths today.
Space: Seemed to need a longer straight to settle last start and didn’t get it. Sat a little too far forward for mine also. Will go back today and come late.
Edgewood: Massively missed start last run and almost won anyway. Jump well today from barrier 1 and simply gets this.
Right To Roam: Solid enough form lines. In with a chance.
Grand Slam Eagle: Needs to find a few lengths more today.
Tooleybuc Kid: Ran very well last two starts. Due but needs to sit near the back.
Joplin: Can’t see the progression into this class.
Luperini: Not up to this.
Vintage Lad: Maiden only winner.
Grand Voyageur: Couldn’t win a significantly easier race last start so hard to win this. May find a bit through.
Realist: Reality is that this horse took 5 starts this prep to win a maiden.
Saturday Sorcerer: Not the worst form lines and rna ok first up. Has to find much more today.
Tampere: Hard to see the horse measuring up fully.
Avighna: Ran ok two back but has to find much more.
Godgrey: Not good enough.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Backing Edgewood with confidence. Savering Space.
Flemington Race 4
Impulse Buy: Backed very hard last start at Moonee Valley and won well. Up 2.5kg today but form lines should work out and will go very close today.
Stick On: Strong enough win two back at Sandown and then last start was very easy. Has ability to go 4/4 today but certainly a concern on straight for first time and no wet form.
Caitlin’s Spirit: Ignore last two starts on heavys? Still went close last start but hasn’t meaured up in Melbourne previously.
Falcent: Very solid horse but last two starts been very poor. Poorly weighted today.. but if returns to best form will be there at the end.
About Square: Went very close last start but no win. Can improve here today.
Sari: Very strong form lines last prep. Snowden yard not going great the last few months but this is a quality horse who goes well first up.
Bombsquad: Weighted well enough today but has to find MUCH more.
North Atlantic Ice: Equal weight today after painfully close 2nd last prep. May sit further forward today.
Appoint: Hard to see a win on previous two runs.
Lissom: Ran ok last start but won’t measure up.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: North Atlantic Ice looks the way to go E/W here but it’s a very tough race with many chances.
Flemington Race 5
Chasse: Ran well enough last start but off 58kg will find this a little hard.
Thumbtacks: Not disgraced any run this prep and at best can go close. Don’t dismiss.
Spacecraft: Never placed at track previously. Down to 54.5kg and if gets own way out front is every chance.
Under The Hat: Disappointing last start. Look to previous two runs. Will sit back in the run and hit the line late.
Clanga’s Glory: Every chance last start and just not good enough at the line. Appeals today.
Road Trippin’: Very strong win last start in easier company and in similar class two back last prep ran well.
Noble Park: Showed nothing first up on heavy. Ignore and look to previous prep runs.
Cheviot Beach: Hasn’t shown anything recently and hard to back on last prep.
Infinite Energy: Ran well enough last start but needs to find lengths today.
Vizhaka: Ignore last start and look to previous run. Has ability.
Digitalism: Disappointed last two runs. Can’t be on here today.
London Stripe: Not good enough on recent form.
Bringebrong: Not in this.
Rose Of Texas: 5L rule makes this horse appear but slow time hard to suggest can back it up here.
King Can Sing: Not even close today.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg one: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Strategy: Clanga’s Glory is a solid bet today on the E/W while Road Trippin’ is a saver for the win.
Flemington Race 6
The Cleaner: Worked too hard early to get over last start and just forgive that run. Comes in well today and will run much better from barrier 3. Big chance.
Zabeelionaire: Doesn’t go great on this track and off recent runs hard to see measuring up just yet.
Exceptionally: Very poor run first up over 1600m. Can’t see getting close today.
Sea Galleon: Not going well enough.
Oregon Spirit: Good runs the last four outings. Down to 54kg after claims and looks top shelf to take this out. Barrier only issue.
Hanks: Not good enough.
Streaky Fella: Not going well enough.
Streets Of Seattle: Solid improvement last start but on weights is out of this.
Westsouthwest: Good hurdles win last start and 3rd behind Mr O’Ceirin two back isn’t the worst form. Is in this.
Dark Note: Not going well enough.
Supremacy: Never won at track, class or 2nd up. Very poor first up but on a surface you can forgive. I still couldn’t touch today.
Tanah Lot: Not good enough.
Picture Editor: Should have won last start and off 52kg today certainly does need to find more, but gets the perfect run on speed maps.
Fabriano: Painfully close last start at Cauflield. Equally weighted today and has every chance.
Beware Of Thestorm: Not in this.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 5, 9, 14, 15
Strategy: The Cleaner gets the gun run and nothing else in the race will harass out the front. Oregon Spirit is the main danger.
Flemington Race 7
Broken: Not the worst run last start and goes ok at track over the straight. Every chance today but does need to find a length for mine.
Canali: Big chance first up here. Gooes record first up and if reproduces last prep run behind Avoid Lightning or Isabella Snowflake here today then can win this.
Queen Delight: Find this very hard on last two runs. Straight not an advantage.
Aregee Mclaren: Won 3 of last 5 with a close 3rd to Espirit De Bullet strong form as well. Every chance at weights.
Jayconi: Solid run last start at track but has to find a good 2 lengths here at weights.
Henwood: Unlucky last start when blocked for the win. Won well tro back and is progressive this prep.
Weekend Special: Ran well last few starts but hard to win at weights against Argee Mclaren today.
Day Procedure: Weighted to win today. Runs well on straight and should get a nice position.
Borsay: Hard to see the progression here.
Melba: Solid enough but poor first up. Won 2 from 3 2nd up is interesting. Weighted nicely. One to watch at odds.
Smoken Cash: Huge run last start at Moonee Valley. Can’t see the repeat here.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10
Strategy: Very open Race. Day Procedure appeals for me off 52kg on the E/W basis.
Flemington Race 8
Pipette: Ran welle nough last start at Moonee Valley but up 2kg today after claims makes it a very hard task. Still, has a chance.
Koe: Hard to knock the form of a horse that continues to win. 2 from 2 at track and is down 2.5kg today.
Mosse Diva: Ran well enough the last two starts and in with a chance again today. Just needs to improve or go forward today.
Danish Whiskey: Not going well enough this prep.
Elfina: Not good enough for this class on previous runs this prep but could surprise.
Ferocious One: Form won’t line up here.
Bia Diamond: Solid form lines and went close last start. Poorly weighted today though.
Counted: Looks a chance on form but has to find a few lengths here.
Tranquera: Poorly weighted today against others in the race but did run well last start.
Eliza Blues: Won’t measure up, up in class here.
Taat Sensation: Poorly weighted today after last start win in lesser class. Won’t measure up.
Angela’s Dream: Didn’t measure up stepping up last start and won’t today.
Bonne Nuit: Not good enough.
Tatt’s Girl: Not shown enough for this.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 7
Strategy: Happy to back Koe on the Each Way here. Great price.
Rosehill Race 8
Very open race but we are following a horse we have great respect for over from Melbourne in Nicholls Court. There will be solid pace on out front from Zaratone and he will be hitting the line very hard today.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: E/W all day.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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