Welcome to The Profits form guide for Flemington on Anzac Day 25 April 2014. Lest We Forget. An ‘interesting’ day of racing on the cards at Flemington. I wouldn’t say I am overly confident today, but there is always value to be had. The cards for tomorrow do look absolutely great over 4 states. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Flemington Race 6 De Little Engine
Ran home super last start and will be suited by the extra distance today. Not that well in at the weights against a well tipped runner in Honey Steel’s Gold and I think we get a better price than currently available. Will improve onwards and upwards again today and I’m very keen, today is the day.
NEXT Best Bet
Flemington Race 1 I Love It & Hill Spy
Two horse play here. Lock in the price on both these runners with 3 units I Love It and 2 units Hill Spy.. should end up with around $3+ odds.
Best Place Bet
Flemington Race 4 Spacecraft
What else can I say about the last start run? It was super impressive. There isn’t anyone to threaten him for the lead again today, should be suited by the extra distance and Hayes believes he is going even better. He may get run down, but I don’t think three get past him.
Other value runners on the card today
Flemington Race 3 Fab Fevola
Flemington Race 4 Oregon Spirit
Flemington Race 5 Gotta Take Care
Runners who based on statistics are over their correct odds today and should give us a good run for our money.
Flemington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 4, 7, 10, 11, 12
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 4, 6
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 14
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 5, 7, 10, 12
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1
Churchill Dancer: Surprising brave win down the straight last start at course over 1200m just getting there in equal class. Drop back to 1000m a huge concern for me today, will it just be a little too sharp for him? Still a big chance.
Clevadude: First time down the straight a big concern. Last prep he was fairly disappointing in this type of class… I have to take him on today.
Hill Spy: First up run was out the back and absolutely flashed home at Moonee Valley. Only run down the straight last prep overraced and ran home very badly.. was a forgive run. Has placed in 3Y-GP3 class last prep as well. Weighted very very well today and is rated to go very close.
Miracle To Me: Not sure what to make of her. Should have gone much closer three back in F&M class. Last start she was given an average ride at best but hit the line very strongly… will the 1000m suit more? Probably.. is she over the odds? Yes. Will she win? I’m not sure.. weighted well enough. Dead track could be the missing key.
I Love It: Last prep won a maiden very well then a good 3rd in 3F-GP3. First up ran on very well from the back to record a win. Up in class big time but is down 5kg today off minimum weight… weighted to win this.
Kraftwerk: 1.8L 2nd on Heavy to Anatina in this class of race is hard to ignore… but I suggest we have to take him on due to non-wet track form.
Hebrung: Maiden winner at Hawksbury in 56.4 then very average last start at Rosehill. First up and Hawks yard flying.
Single Days: Won maiden well enough, then did a lot run 2nd run. Big step up here.
Smart Dart: Last two runs solid enough but big step up in class today. Needs to find 2 lengths.
Comments: When looking at a Straight race down the 1000m at Flemington, I look for horses who go best when over the 1000m distance and are weighted well. I Love It and Hill Spy are clear standouts today due to this.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: I Love it for 3 units to win and Hill Spy for 2 units to win.
Flemington Race 2
The second-raters of the 2YO division.
I’m not going into the form for this race, but there is a horse who I have to respect here.
Jarklin is a horse who won a maiden over 1000m, ran a good 2nd to Nostradamus in 2Y-SWP class and then last start was 6L 2nd to Eloping.. who has since proven his worth with a win last week at Randwick in a 500k race and running 7th in the Golden Slipper. The jump to 1400m is the different today and at the $20s offered, he is worth a small E/W play for me.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Small E/W on Jarklin.
Flemington Race 3
Rescue Mission: No excuses last prep.. just put in some very poor runs. 57kg today back in class, have to give him a chance if reproduces a peak run from 2013.
Like Bolt: Always runs very well down the Flemington straight with a 1.5L 4th in Listed company and then 1.5L Open Class 3rd his only two runs. firs tup run in WFA-G3 was horrible though over in Adelaide… huge drop back in class but I can’t have off that form.
Let’s Rock’N’Roll: Just ignore last start in Canberra, slowly away and worked hard to get the front and then fell out of it with top weight, with a back marker getting the win. Two back was brave over 950m at MV and then previous run also at WF. Can run a strong time, just needs to handle the straight.
Eight Bills: Progressed through the grades well enough last prep and then back to R-84 class met Kaiser Sun who proved to be better than that. Goes well first up, never won at track but placed 3 times.. likes the straight.
Fab Fevola: Fair to say his run last start at $200-1 was huge put up as overs on Twitter, he almost got there, but i guess lucky for us, he got beat by our best of the day Shamal Wind who put some massive sectionals in to chase him down and run right past. Only up 5.5kg today down to R-90 grade, he does meet some good horses, but no Shamal Wind if you ask me. Very well weighted and probably jumps around $40s on Betfair which is way over the correct odds.
Lord Of The Sky: Good sectionals all wins last prep.. but what was he actually winning? He won a 3YO-78 by 1.5L and then 6.5L winner in BM-78 off 52.5kg.. which i guess isn’t really surprising, we know he has talent… he then didn’t get his lead at Caulfield last start and just fell out of it very quick in Listed company. Down in class today off 51kg, his certainly weighted to win, but I reckon you have to take him on at the price, especially if we get a Good track.
Danger Close: His times are sound enough, weighted nicely enough today, good E/W chance.
Gallant Harmony: Went to Adelaide for an easy kill last start but just got run down off a decently hot tempo out front. Down 2.5kg today more after claims but way up in grade. Not sure I can see the win.
Mr Speaker: Couldn’t win a R-58 at Geelong!
Comments: If the track is upgraded to Good, I will be laying Lord of The Sky quite hard today, I have to take the horse on at the price. If we have a Dead track, no lay. So who can beat him? Let’s Rock’N’Roll on his day can put down 55.9 second 1000m runs. He smashed Agent last prep and smashed out another 56.8 this prep at WF. Those will be the ones I want to be on.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Let’s Rock’N’Roll 2 units. 1 unit Fab Fevola E/W (don’t take fixed unless you take a product with drift protection like Centrebet’s Centrebest or Bet365’s products).
Flemington Race 4
Waldpark: There were a few believing this guy would measure up to Group 1 level to win the Caulfield Cup last prep, but the form shown in all four runs in Australia suggested otherwise. Of those runs, I would suggest the horses best run was fresh first up 3.8L 8th at Flemington in WFA-G1 class behind Foreteller and Puissance De Lune then blocked for runs and not allowed to let down over 1600m. 61kg today but a nice barrier, hat his best, he does win with this weight.
Spacecraft: Went to the front and never run down 2nd up at Flemington over 1400m last start. Up to 1600m today where he is better suited and Hayes believes he has gone along with it again. 55kg brings him in well at the weights and there is no clear leader outside of him, so he should get it his own way, especially if Trade Commissioner doesn’t run here.. looks a massive winning chance.
Count of Limonade: First up well backed import for the Price yard, ran well firs tup but should be better today for the run and up to 1600m. Barrier makes it a little tricky but should run well.
Shewan: Showed nothing first up and better suited by much longer. Down to 55.5kg today helps.
Cooldini: Strange nomination today. Super 2600m win two back at Flemington.. down to 1600m today.. he has won over this distance previously and suggestions are he is going fine… probably over the correct odds today.
Oregon Spirit: He has been very disappointing at times this prep. Back to 1200m was a crazy move last start, not sure why they did it. Back up to his bet distance of 1600m, down to 54kg, on his best runs this prep, he goes very very close today. Be more confident on a Good track surface.
Rhythm To Spare: Showed nothing up in Sydney all two runs this prep and laso nothing first up in Melbourne. Hard to have on form.
Minnie Downs: Continues to run well and Kitten On The Run backed up her form very well. Equal weight today and increase in distance should be fine. One to consider.
Trade Commissioner: Probably doesn’t race here today… Back to 1600m seems questionable.. weighted nicely enough and could win.
Desert Wizard: Hard to follow this guy in. Went around very short first up in easier class and didn’t produce much. Didn’t show much last start either on heavy.
Comments: I feel this is an open race and there is a lot of value on offer outside of the favs. Oregon Spirit looks the biggest overs today and then Spacecraft. A few strategies can be taken here. Spacecraft looks the biggest value the place on last start run, he gets the perfect run in the race.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Back Oregon Spirit and Spacecraft for 1 unit each. 0.5 units Waldpark. Saver Minnie Downs.
Flemington Race 5
Tanby: Just too far back last start and had enough excuses including not being a slow tracker. Back to better ground today and down to 56.5kg… is actually still worse weighted today than Mouranyan last start!
Prairie Star: Not sure this horse has shown us anything this prep or past prep that is in this class. Up to 2600m looks a shot in the dark, but Oliver takes the ride is of interest.
Gotta Take Care: Too far back last start when ran home nice enough over 2150m. Up to 2600m will suit today 3rd up… have to remember he has never won first or second up and takes a while to get into his runs. Down to 54.5kg today as well suits and if he produces his close 3rd to Sea Moon & Araldo last prep over 2520 at course in Listed company, then he will be very hard to hold out. Barrier a major issue.
Ancient King:Ran home well enough two back in Listed company over 1600m but last start at Flemington over 2000m was fairly poor. Hard to see the extra distance helping. Not for me.
Unchain My Heart: Seems to have gone a bit backwards this late in prep. Back up to 2600m a huge step up in distance… on best run four back, she runs ok.. but not for me.
I’m Jake: Hasn’t won for a long long time… 2011 infact… but he is showing us the right signs. Last prep almost snuck one home at MV over the 2500m in open class. his run last start from out the front before getting run home by Gottino was brave. This is stronger company today, but with 54kg, he maps to lead and if gets the right tempo, can go close. Sneaky chance.
Wells: Certainly weighted well today and has won previously at this distance.. but doesn’t come up as a non-hurdle winner on my radar even at the weights.
Compound: Surprise winner last start at Donald. This is MUCh harder and I can’t see a win in this class.
Rawnaq: Hayes yard confident he is a chance today even after last few runs. Weighted ok today but not in this class for mine.
Oerter: Won four in a row and hard to ‘sack’. But from BM-64’s to BM-70 to this? Weighted to run nicely off 52kg though.
Valediction: Got a hurdle win last start at the Bool and is back to the flat… previous win last month was over 2040m as well so don’t think he can’t win this. Weighted ok and seems to be going well.
Republic Las: Hard to see him backing up here for a win even at the weights on previous form.
Transfer Allowance: Shown nothing this prep. No thanks.
Tiger Tuff: Impressive win on slow two back then found out last start off a slower tempo… hard to really know.. but R58 to this? No.
Comments: Open race. I think we have to take on Oerter, he had to dead-heat a BM-70 last start and I think this is too big a step up. Valediction has been running well, but this is also a step up in class on the flat, i think he probably finds a runner or two too good. I’m Jake is a horse I have a soft spot for, probably a little bias as well, but I think he is huge overs and have to have a spec bet on him.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 4, 7, 10, 11, 12
Strategy: Gotta Take Care E/W.
Flemington Race 6
Honey Steel’s Gold: Every man and his dog has a tip out for this bloke today, simply means he will start shorter than the current quote. His win four back at Sandown was nice, but his two runs inbetween last start were very poor. Was he better suited due to the slow track condition? Did the extra distance really help that much? I have a feeling that is what happened. Down to 56kg today from 60kg last start certainly helps.. I can’t write him off, but I prefer others.
Order of the Sun: Start to finish 3YO-74 winner four runs back.. chucked into a WFA-G1 then two runs on slow and heavy in 3Y-GP1 and GP2 class. Last start on heavy wasn’t exactly disgraced… but hasn’t proven he can stay.
Throw The King: Improved on two back run to win during the week in much easier company. Surely gets scratched and doesn’t back up here?? But even if so, poorly weighted against others.
De Little Engine: Down 1kg today after a very solid run last start behind Bring Something. Better suited to less wet tracks form does suggest but still handled the slow going. Oliver gets the ride today and I think he is a top hope today from a good barrier position.
Majorly: CL1 and then CL2 winner over in New South Wales. Massive jump in class and only down 2kg.. hard to see this progression but will stay.
More Rewarding: Slow track R-64 win last start after some average runs over 1600m and 2000m in much easier races. May be better for the 2800m. Not the worst and has to be respected i suggest.
The Terricks: Poor last start, poor the run before, beaten too easily by De Little Engine three back and Honey Steels Gold four back. No thanks.
Gold A Plenty: Couldn’t win a maiden this prep… no.
Valtari: Couldn’t win a maiden or place in a R-58…
Driving Louise: Showed us nothing this prep to suggest could place.
Belvedere Road: Couldn’t win a maiden.
Comments: Some very poor runners that shouldn’t even be allowed to run today.. win a maiden first please? Or even place in one! Looks a race of three runners and up in distance, i’m very keen on De Little Engine today.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 4, 6
Strategy: De Little Engine to win. Saver Honey Steel’s Gold.
Flemington Race 7
A LittleBitOfClass: Ran well last start at favourite at Sandown but just got run down late. Barrier 6 again today, straight track first up, weighted well enough and can run the time required here.
Diamond Fund: First up run in much easier grade ran a very good clip over 1100m. Last start simply an ignore run when blundered twice. Back in class today and weighted nicely.. rates well.
Longchamp Belle: Never placed at this short distance previously. Never placed first up either.. never run down the straight or at the track… all those negatives aside, she ran 1.8L off Minaj and 1.3L off Miss Steele AND 0.1L off Solicit last prep, which form wise is pretty decent and hard to ignore.
Jemerica: Won well enough last start at Cranbourne and this is a big step up in class today. On first up run in similar or lesser class to this I think she is a bit off these at weights.
Mokoro: A horse who always has issues it seems on all 3 runs.. Can miss a start… but a straight track can forgive that. Had respiratory issues last start down the straight so was a forgive. Oliver keeps the ride today and looks well in here on potential.
Howdah: Last prep couldn’t get a win but ran ok in city class once. Firs tup run over 950m ran well off an average tempo out front but beaten by Neat Feat. Up in class here i’d say, but has come up $4.2, looks big unders even off 54kg. Can’t ignore in Quaddie but happy to take on at price.
Write The Cheque: Ran well first up but didn’t get the win, dislike horses that can’t get a win in a close finish. Ran ok last start but didn’t place and this is harder.
I Got A Turbo: Looks a very good filly. First two runs were very hand and Magnus filly so will be coming back even better today for me. Times suggest she is a good horse and as long as she gets a good trail into the race behind Howdah, she will be hitting the line very hard.
Astro Miss: Very poor first up. Hard to ignore that run. Have to bet around her.
Laguna Vista: Won a fairly average maiden first up and wasn’t impressive. No thanks.
Nicamorae: First up got a win on slow in a maiden at Wangaratta. Hayes runner but this is significantly harder today. Can’t have in this class.
Sentfromthestars: Ran home well at Sale first up in maiden company on slow for the win. Down to 54kg.. needs to improve to win here but times were decent enough to picture here.
Wildwood Dancer: Geelong winner onl yjust from out the front. Big step up here today at equal weights, no thanks.
Intrigo: Market only guide, first run, hard to know. Magnus always good at 3?
Liberty Hill: Very poor last start, hard to know what happened considering first up run and win time was solid.
Shooting Sally: Last prep ran well enough to win her maiden but times were only average, then lame next race. Have to forgive on that and weighted ok today.
Comments: Wide in the Quaddie, lots of value in this race, two i’m keen on are Diamond Fund and I Got A Turbo. If I Got A Turbo resumes in similar or even better form than last prep, she is the horse to beat while Diamond Fund just has to be forgiven last start and goes very very close off times two back.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 14
Strategy: I Got A Turbo and Diamond Fund similar bet sizes.
Flemington Race 8
Double Dee: Way back in class here and deserves the 60kg. Up to 1600m today is suitable. Only lost last start to a very handy mare and back to this class looks one of the best of the day. Only issue is the barrier, may have to work hard to get a good spot.
Rose Pattern: Ran well enough last start at Flemington and increase in distance an issue for me with 5 runs for 0 places at distance. Hayes did believe she is going well enough to win though, but did suggest needs a good ride from Kayla from the tricky barrier.
Freezy: Not suited to 1400m firs tup but still didn’t finish off well enough. Has won at 1600m previously but never won at class, never been at track and would need sharp improvement to be a player today. Barrier helps.
Genuine Spin: Went back first up and was just no chance on the slow surface. Up to 1600m today and won second up last prep over 1600m at MV very convincingly. Slightly up in class today and off 56kg, rates very well from barrier 6.
Blue Ribbon: Showed nothing all 3 runs this prep and suggest she needs further.
Court Pastoral: Failed last start over in GB in FM-LR over 2400m, but previous run in France in similar class ran 1.3L 4th. Previous to that won in similar class to this by 4L over 2400m and previous run again in similar company won by 3L in GB over 2000m. Never run over this distance previously, so a little questionable, but looks to have the biggest upside of all in this race. Been off a while… but should go well.
Campagne Ruby: Ran ‘ok’ first up. 5L off them last start thrown into Listed grade when had a fine run and didn’t do much wrong. Back to this grae and down 1.5kg, If we take improvement into account, should run a nice race.
El Mina: Good win first up and then ran well enough last start off 52.5kg over in Adelaide in slightly harder class (but not as good class as this imo). Up 1kg. Barrier 4 will get back but should run well enough. Not top chance for mine though.
St Issey: Way down in distance today. Ran a very brave 2nd three runs back, last two runs average though.. also ran very well four back at MV over 1600m… weighted nicely in this grade and Kah goes on, she is a great rider from position expected. Over the odds.
Suite Success: Won a very average BM-64 tow back and then just missed last start at Morning. Much harder today but off 51.5kg seems as though she is well weighted here.
Good Thinking: 52kg is the only upside, Can’t see the win off previous runs.
Azzaden: Good enough win in maiden company firs tup. Ran home ok enough last start but this is harder as well.
Comments: A tough race on paper. 3 roughies who all have genuine chances – Suite Success is so well weighted today from a positive barrier, she will improve onwards and may just steal it. St Issey is back in distance today but has shown this prep she is going well enough, Kah goes on, looks a chance. Genuine Spin was poor firs tup but was ridden incorrect as well.. have to forgive first up when never won first up, is 2/2 second up including a good win in similar class last prep over 1600m as well at MV. Court Pastroal is the unknown of the race. If this was a Waller runner instead of Moroney, I would be a little more confident.. but so long off and at a distance that isn’t 100% ideal, I have to take her on today. Double Dee is the stand out and very hard to ignore.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 5, 7, 10, 12
Strategy: Double Dee to win. Smaller bet Genuine Spin.
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