Welcome to The Profits form guide for Cox Plate day at Moonee Valley on 25 October 2014. The big day is here! Caulfield Cup was exciting last week and we hope to improve on the results last week. Last year we went a close second with Happy Trails in this race and we hope our top picks can make it one better. Both our Best Bets were scratched this morning which threw a bit of a curveball.. so they have now been updated with lower confidence picks. I’ll be on track all day tweeting about horses and the way the track is playing so pay attention if you can. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Melbourne Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 6 Speediness
Ran very well last start at Caulfield to claim second behind Trust in a Gust. MUCH better weighted by 2-2.5L today against opponents from that race. Pace will be on thanks to Havana Rey and he will have every chance to run them down. Very happy with the price being bet as well.
Melbourne Next Best Bet
Monnee Valley Race 7 Moonovermanhattan
Very keen on our moon man today after they finally advised they would be going forward. There maps to be NO speed in this race and the key rivals map to be close to the back. We will be getting 2-3 lengths at very least coming to the turn on the better horses in the race and while this bloke doesn’t have a turn of foot, he has the grinding ability that is required for a front runner to win at this track. A lot of merit in the Guineas run even though he fell out of it, deserved to and was much better than Almalad and all the others apart from Rich Enuff from on pace. Big odds today.
Melbourne Other bet
Monnee Valley Race 3 Tahni Dancer
This girl has continued to improve each run into her prep. Runs at this course have been the peaks for mine as well. Only issue is missing the start and having to settle back. I think she can win from there today.. but I would love to see her push further forward as well to sit just a bit off midfield. Price simply represents value against these runners today. Please note confidence on this bet, betting size much lower than normal Next Best Bet.
Melbourne Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 5 Albonetti
Ran 6th last start in a similar class of race. Up in distance a big positive today. Schofield takes the ride which is another positive to me today as well. Sectionals don’t lie.. flew home two back and also flew home last start. Has the ability and times to win this. Sneaking further forward than dead last today would give us every chance.
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 6, 7
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 13
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 14
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 6, 10, 12
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Promotions
Sportsbet
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Luxbet
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2. Win 50% more on the Cox Plate than best price from Sportbet’s Top Tote Plus, Tom Waterhouse’s Tom’s Div or Sportingbet’s Best Tote Plus ($100 maximum stake)
Ladbrokes
Best Tote or SP +20% on the Moonee Valley Cup (max bet $50)
Moonee Valley Race 3 Cash Refund if your bet loses (max bet $20)
Betfair- Power Picks
#1
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OR
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#2
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OR
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Sportingbet
$7 for Fawkner to win the Cox Plate (Maximum bet $20)
Run 2nd or 3rd in Cox Plate, money back as Bonus Bet (Max bet $50)
Centrebet
Run 2nd to favourite in the Cox Plate this Saturday, money back (Max $100) as a bonus bet
Racing
Moonee Valley Race 1
13 horse 2YO race with only two horses to race to date.
Very happy to sit this out. Not even going to turn up to the track for this race to be honest. #LongLunch
Comments: Watch
Confidence 0%
Strategy: Beers.
Moonee Valley Race 2
Rocky King: Easy kill first up up north and up in class here. Ran a very strong 2nd to Big Money three runs back at Grafton leading it all the way in a very strong tempo. Push forward and set a very strong tempo again here today and looks a very good chance. Will test them!
Vatican: Hasn’t been within 2.5L of a win the last 5 runs. Both runs this prep have had excuses but not good enough. Last start was an improvement at least when blocked for a run on turn also. Can run okay.
Henwood: Can’t work out the 1000m distance today but I guess they think he is best over a sprint distance based on the 0.8L defeat over 1200m by Trust In A Gust? Goes well enough at track and surface. Far enough back though.
Straight Gold: Finished off nicely first up run in Aus. Group 3 placed in HK last prep and will improve with fitness. Think he needs another run but was good last start from the back. If the speed is on he will be every chance.
Don’t Get Excited: Goes well first up but coming back from last prep where really showed nothing at all apart from a win beating some average types on a slow surface. Barrier hurts chances. Market will be telling.
Let’s Rock’N’Roll: Further back than nothing last start which did him in last start. Ran well enough. Goes well at track but will struggle to get lead from this barrier.
Canali: Ran ok enough two back at MV but was still 2nd last. Not the same horse and won’t get the race to suit.
Eight Bills: Went close a few times two preps back in Melbourne and then up to Darwin for two wins, a very good one the second one. Won 5 from 10 first up and won twice at track previously. Rates very well at weights but barrier and mapping the concern.
Miss Steele: Have to expect they push further forward today from the barrier. Won 3 from 5 at track and McDonald takes the ride will give her every chance. Has to improve though.
Minaj: Two runs this prep and both been very poor. Much better than that and loves the track and distance. Have to respect the class but has to turn around the form.
Inspector: Couldn’t win last start in BM-70 when ran well at Cranbourne but this is much much harder. Not for mine.
Comments: Expect a solid tempo with speed on. Every horse will have their chance if the course is playing true.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Rocky King to win. Smaller bet Straight Gold.
Moonee Valley Race 3
Lumosty: Never a chance last start at Caulfield when ridden out the back. Barrier 2 today expect a more forward position? Yes? No? Have to respect.
Singularity: Couldn’t win maidens the last two runs is a concern for mine considering strong 2YO form. Not for me.
Tahni Dancer: Ran very well behind Amicus in the Thousand Guineas last start for a 5th and was 1.5L 2nd to Eloping previous run at MV. Stays at 1600m and WELL back in class here. The one to beat. Barrier suits.
Tender: Maiden win first up and then since not won well at all in town. needs it wet.
Berimbau: Shown nothing all three runs this prep but money came last start. Not for me.
Little Hottie: Every chance last start at Flemington and simply not good enough. Maiden win was ok though. Don’t fully dismiss.
Hautvillers: Good win on heavy first up at Seymour, then last start in much easier dead last. No thanks.
Kansas Sunflower: Times suggest she had every chance last start at Caulfield but fell out of it late. Stronger race today and has to improve again.
Dame Largo: Couldn’t place or run within 4.8L in two 3F maidens… how does it start here?
Comments: Two horse race on form with Singularity and Tahni Dancer. I’m very happy to stick with Tahni Dancer at the price. We need a bit of luck in the fact that she missed the start 2 of last 4 runs.. need a good clean jump today to get a little further ahead in running.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Tahni Dancer to win.
Moonee Valley Race 4
Pressing: Very good 2YO-LR winner last prep after a 2YO win and then went onwards to win a good 4th in 2YO-Gp1. Was fit first up last prep but found best on a wetter track is the concern.
Law: Every chance last start but just was disappointing. Barrier means will get a good run and have every chance.
Risen From Doubt: 2Yo-LR winner. Then ran valid 3rd and 4th in G2s before 13th in Golden Slipper. Firs tup run from back ran home well but not good enough. Needs to find MUCH more here. Barrier helps to sit more forward.
Bullpit: First up run was horrible! Last prep did win some ok races but not to this level. Has to find another gear.. probably just forgive first up?
Nicoscene: Good win on slow to finish last prep but hasn’t come back at peak just yet on two runs in. Still, has shown to be competitive. Barrier 5 helps.
Greco: 5L maiden winner first up but that was on heavy. 2YO form is sound when ran 0.3L 2nd to Valentia. Hawkes yard so have to respect.
Shaf: BM-64 win last start but it had merit. Previous runs were all decent also. Has ability.
Lazyaxl: Last two runs has continued to improve and looked better up in distance last start.. but dropped back to 1200m a concern for me. Best last prep was over 1400m as well. Would prefer more rain.
Galaxy Pegasus: Hard to miss this bloke really. Huge win first up in maiden company and then simply failed down the straight at Flemington off the brutal pace set by Rich Enuff. Last start back in Bm-64 great did it easy and was the eye-catcher trial recently. Looks well suited today from barrier 3 and the logical pace in race.
Glenrowan Prince: Wasn’t horrible last prep but the first up maiden win, which was expected, was good. Has to find Much more here though.
Comments: Happy to bet around the Hawkes runner here and go with Hayes and Price.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Galaxy Pegasus to win. Smaller bet Pressing.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Precedence: Flew home last start behind The Cleaner so have to respect the form. Top weight but not really that much disadvantaged. Won 5 from 10 at track (only ever won, never placed!). Maps much closer to the speed than you would expect from positive barrier. Big player.
Black Tycoon: Showed nothing all prep. No thanks. Even at this distance.
Au Revoir: WFA-LR placed over in France… Runs well over this distance and from barrier 6 can position on speed today. Maps very well and if good enough will be hard to beat at pet distance.
Le Roi: Every chance in the Cranbourne Cup and wasn’t good enough. I think he is better over the 2000m trip than 2500m. Will improve you would suspect again today but has to find much more for mine. Others preferred.
Prince of Penzance: Every chance last start in Moe Cup but was a bit nuts. Count of Limonade isn’t a good horse on my ratings and i’m happy to bet around here today based on previous form… I do acknowledge extra distance will help.
Opinion: Ridden closer to the speed last start at Randwick, he seemed to appreciate the longer straight than Rosehill had provided the last two starts and of course the longer distance in the race. Back in class and weighted very well here. Issue for mine is this horse is so off and on you never know if the top class horse is turning up.
Anudjawun: Actually thought his last two runs had a lot of merit. Last win was at this track but Group 2 is a bit beyond my expectations for the horse.
Epingle: Solid run last start in the Cranbourne Cup and went under the Radar. Group 3 winner last prep over 2400m. Barrier 3 gives every chance if good enough. Never placed at track 3 tries an issue.
Albonetti: Very good run in the Herbert Power, but it’s the previous run we also rate the horse on on killer sectionals. Interestingly, Albonetti had the 4th fastest final 600m in the race behind Protectionist, Lord Van Percy and Let’s MakeaDeal. Had to go about 8 wide with Lord Van Percy and matched the horse to the line. Huge odds today with Schofield onboard… I reckon they ride for luck. Would love to see them push forward today.
Comments: A race that is more open than it looks on paper. Opinion has to be respected but we can’t determine if the Group 1 horse turns up. Precedence has to be respected on last start run and maps very well today. Au Revior could be anything and maps to have a very easy time out front. Albonetti is the clear value for mine and hard to ignore on sectionals.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Opinion to win. E/W bet on Albonetti.
Moonee Valley Race 6
Speediness: Will have the race run to suit with tempo out the front on! Looks well weighted as well on WFA weight scales. Barrier 4 perfect. Respect!
Havana Rey: Great horse.. but WFA-G2 this is a stretch. Good run first up but this is another level and weighted poorly.
Akavoroun: Much improved run last start but now poorly in at the weights against Trust in a Gust. Needs luck to win for sure.
Desert Jeuney: Continues to ‘run well’ without winning or looking like winning. Poorly weighted today against Trust in a Gust and Speediness.
Hooked: Love this horse and think the horse is tough as nails… but up to 58.5kg today looks a hard task even for this talented runner. Barrier also hurts chances.
Bull Point: Had every chance last start and was simply too far back. Giving Trust in a Gust 2kg today on weight scales. Barrier 2… has to do something with it. Talented.
Atlante: Poorly weighted here giving Trust in a Gust 2kg so even at best hard to see the turnaround. Barrier is ok.
Liberty’s Choice: Ran very well last start but poorly weighted here nad hard to have on form at weights.
Comments: With the scratching of Trust in a Gust, Speediness becomes the top pick. Weighted to win today. Hooked is the other form line we have to respect and the horse is the obvious choice to sit just off the lead in the race.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 6, 7
Strategy: Back Speediness to win. Saver Hooked
Moonee Valley Race 7
Zululand: Given this horse every chance to show something this prep and have been disappointed. I’ve reviewed the speed after scratchings and have to give this horse a genuine chance now. Will give the main threats a sight if goes to contest the lead today.
Chivalry: Continues to run ‘well’ without winning after the first up run. Well off them last two runs but suggest the trip increase will suit. Barrier hurts significantly.
Prentice: Maps to sit just off the lead today… but Min-64 Belmont form to this? Please!
Moonovermanhattan: Trainer has now reversed tactics back to going forward, sanity prevails with no speed in the race. Maps to be 2-3 lengths infront of the main rivals today and will have every chance. Very keen at the price on offer on the E/W. Should have beat Almalad two back who is now in the Cox Plate today.
Bondeiger: Continues to improve after each run. Won at Caulfield well enough last start but this is obviously another class. Barrier hurts chances significantly.
Royal Standing: Heavy maiden win 2nd up. Failed from the back 3rd up but then strong enough from on pace last start. Barrier 5 so expect to sit forward but has to find Much more than that against these!
Gouldian: 3YO-Maiden winner last start by 0.1L, but the time was actually ok. Ran nice enough behind Duccio two back as well. Needs to improve onwards again.
Coram: Found out the last two starts. Up in distance could do the trick but i’m not sold from what i’ve seen.
Atmosphere: Had every chance the last two starts. Is he a non-winner? Loves to go close. Has ability.
San Padre: Maiden winner. Last start blocked for runs. Rate on this run.
It’s Thyme: Maiden only winner in very poor time. Can’t rate at all.
Go Indy Go: 2Y-GP1 winner. Schofield gets the ride back thankfully and will really appreciate the distance. Need a bit of luck with tempo on, but is a very very very good horse and will be storming to the line.
Comments: Take 3! With the scratching of our Best Bet Duccio and then connections of Moonovermanhattan suggesting the horse will go back last night, now changing their mind and pushing forward, here we are again! Moonovermanhattan will have 3 lengths coming to the turn on the main rivals and the best lane. Certainly also have to respect Go Indy Go.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 13
Strategy: Moonovermanhattan on top from Go Indy Go.
Moonee Valley Race 8 – Cox Plate
Sacred Falls: Very good horse who won very well two back at Randwick with some stunning late sectionals. Shown his best work on wetter tracks than this, but all the runs on dryer tracks have been very good also. Yet to win at distance but always goes close. Barrier is a key negative and needs luck to get the perfect position in running. Watch for him late.
Fawkner: The favourite for more than one reason. Caulfield Cup winner last prep, won very well last start at Caulfield over the distance and will be fitter for the run. Maps perfect from barrier 4 and expect to see him about 3 or 4 back sitting off the rail.
Side Glance: Ran very well first up at Caulfield coming off strong group 3rds in the US. Will have a hard time sticking with The Cleaner I would suggest though off the tempo. Last win was at Flemington last year when was able to set a slower tempo and win it that way.
Happy Trails: A lot of merit from the last start run at Caulfield when you consider the whole run. Barrier 2 is a little awkward but we know he will be sitting back … but may be able to get 4-5 back the rail not 6-7 from here. Respect. Should have won last year. Flying late.
Foreteller: Good win two back and then had his chances last start and found nothing very flat at Caulfield. Not the ideal run you want coming into a Cox Plate.. but rate on last years 4th and the two previous runs. Barrier 1 will be coming late with luck.
The Cleaner: One of the lowest rated horses in the race, he just continues to find a way to win having won 4 of his last 5 races. Loves this track with 4 wins 2 places from 6 starts and also has a good record at the distance. If the reports are true that he has improved since, he could very much push these if the rail plays the way we expect it to. Would love to see them change up the tactics and push 4-5 lengths clear by the school and see what happens. Don’t risk.
Guest of Honour: Group 2 winner and listed win last prep in UK over 1600m. First up run finished off nicely to get the run in at Caulfield. Williams first ride onboard.. barrier 10… sit near back.. struggle to suggest he is the best in this.
Criterion: Turned the corner two runs back at Randwick with a solid run then ridden more quietly last start at Caulfield… his final 400m sectionals were very good. Best jockey at the moment takes the ride from a dream barrier 6. Sit midfield and pounce. First time around MV track a concern for mine.
Silent Achiever: She has been disappointing all prep. Hasn’t shown us anything. Class does rise to the top when it’s needed… but I can’t see it here. Only run at track was a win interestingly…. prefer it wetter for her.
Royal Descent: Loves to run second. Hasn’t won since 2013 and run 2nd in Group 1, WFA-G1 and WFA-G2 the last four starts.. it rpoves she is a serious horse and the step up to 2000m looks ideal today from barrier 3. Can she get a tough 2000m though? Not sold.
Adelaide: 3YO who got a win over in USA in 3Y-GP1 company. Run behind Ectot in France was okay also. I have real concerns with the way the horse races, which is very greenly, it will struggle to adapt to this racecourse today. I’m taking a sit against the horse on everything i’ve seen, i’m not sold it can beat the best we have at the 56kg.
Almalad: Fell out of it very very quickly last start at Caulfield. Similar tempo here today and i’m very happy to take this bloke on even if they take a sit.
Sweynesse: Didn’t beat much two or three back but beat First Seal on Heavy four back. Last start well beaten by Hampton Court with a very solid tempo. No weight but barrier 12 today so probably goes back.. not sure he is the best 3YO here.
Wandjina: Love this blokes chances. His Guineas run was super after getting away slowly. I could argue that he wins the Guineas if he positions further forward like they suggested he would be (midfield where Shooting To Win was). Perfect barrier, pushing to sit off the leaders and 49.5kg… tough horse and handles the rough sectionals. Big odds.
Top Chances
Fawkner
Criterion
Happy Trails
Sacred Falls
Medium Chances
Wandjina
Adelaide
The Cleaner
Low Chances
Guest of Honour
Silent Achiever
Royal Descent
Sweynesse
Minimal Chances
Almalad
Foreteller
Side Glance
Comments: Very open race as the markets suggest. Fawkner and Criterion are my top two chances in the market while Wandjina represents the clear value in the race.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 14
Strategy: Fawkner to win. Smaller bets on Criterion and Wandjina
Moonee Valley Race 9
Gypsy Diamond: FM-GP1 second last prep. All four runs this prep have bene less than desireable though. back in class but hard to have on these runs off top weight today from barrier.
Tango’s Daughter: Ran home ok two back at Flemington behind Chautauqua. Last start just missed behind Hosting at Caulfield and this looks a harder field to my eye again. Up to 57.5kg an issue but should give them a site. Maps well.
You’re So Good: Shown nothing all four runs this prep. Not for mine here!
Suavtio: Unlucky two of last 3.. other run didn’t even jump. Has to get some luck today finally? Weighted to win from a barrier where she should be winning from. That simple.
Reckless Assassin: Up in class again and looking for further on best form. Push forward from outside barrier and will have to tough it out to get the lead. No thanks today for mine.
Ava’s Delight: Eye-catching run last start at Flemington blocked in straight when finished just behind some classy runners. Barrier 3 but the horse never jumps with them is the trouble.. .$5 for a horse that misses the start every time? Yikes?
Jessy Belle: Every chance last few runs but just hasn’t measured up to the class. Will run well again today but just looks outclassed even out to the 1600m.
Scratchy Bottom: You should get that checked.. :p – Has won at track and also distance previously.. but showed her best form deeper into prep last prep and over 2000m+. First up didn’t show me enough.
Let’s Be A Star: Couldn’t be near based on last start. Two back run was good but has to improve still on those runs.
Precious Gem: Continues to run well without winning due to being too far back. Should be slightly closer today and will have her shot late.
Gold To Go: Very very poor first up. Not expecting much better today at unsuitable distance. Wants much further.
Refer: Given every chance the last two runs at Sandown and Caulfield and proven not good enough. Respect.
Comments: Finding it almost impossible to bet here. Suavito could miss it again? I think in-play betting Suavito if the horse jumps is the way if you like the horse. Ava’s Delight also. If it jumps with them and is handy, i’d have a bet.. but you can’t predict this. Refer could improve and measure up.. precious gem could be further forward and run well. Tango’s Daughter could be anything… Day ends at cox plate i guess today!
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 6, 10, 12
Strategy: Suavito on top.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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