Welcome to The Profits form for Caulfield on 29 September 2013. The last two days have been the bookies. Just keep doing what we are doing. You can’t keep running 2nd as they say. A few strong runners on the card with form lines more sound today than normal. The track will play well and hopefully we slot home some best bets and even a quaddie. As always, I hope my form matches up with yours. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Race 8 Strawberry Boy
Next Best
Race 7 Long John
Best Value
Race 3 Fabriano
Quaddie Leg One: 5, 6, 7, 8, 12, 16
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 5, 6, 7
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 4, 8, 12
Quaddie Leg Four: 5, 8, 14, 17, 18
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Caulfield Race 1
Bulbula: Close 2nd last start sitting further back than normal at Flemington. Equal weight today with Nisbet claim and looks to be peaking so pushed up over 1400m. Barrier 3 is good.
May’s Dream: Hard to judge off first up run. The time ran was good and should be suited by up in distance also.
Go Again: Didn’t show near enough first up even if blocked for runs.
Suavito: Maiden only winner. Not sure those two runs suggest the improvement needed here.
Aurora Miss: Couldn’t win a maiden.
Essie’s Pride: Couldn’t win maidens last two starts. On previous prep you still can’t dismiss.
Apamene: Showed nothing last two preps.
Comments: Only a few chances and Bulbula sticks out. Should be suited today and gets every chance.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Bulbula to win
Caulfield Race 2
Oriental Ruby: Weighted poorly here today. Ran well last start but Oasis Bloom didn’t frank that form.
Bec Said No Credit: I would suggest we wipe off last start run on SLOW. Back to good today where better suited this prep. Up to 1800m and up in the weights is the issue.
Detox: Need one of these today after the Grand Finals beers yesterday! Ran 2nd behind Gris Caro who backed up the form Friday going close. Weighted to win.
Bonne Nuit: Disappointing last run changing up how she ran. Will go back today and be better suited. Back to winable grade.
My Highlight: Weighted super today compared to Green Roller. Not sure if good enough though.
Green Roller: Slowly getting back into form but there are better than her here.
Keyarna Blue: First two runs this prep very disappointing. Can’t have her again here today off those.
Keep De Rose: Ran well enough behind Angelic Lass. Suited by track condition and is hardly ever far off it. Will find best over this distance.
Princess Peggy: Form lines strong but others better here.
Comments: A few good chances but two clearly stand out here.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Keep De Rose on top up in distance today while Detox is a huge price on form lines and gets backing also.
Caulfield Race 3
Verdant: Big run last start at MV. Down in class today but weighted a little harshly. Down to 58.5 is ok after claim. Up in distance suits but barrier 1 is the main issue.
Sir John Hawkwood: Unknown factor. International runner trying to get into the Caulfield Cup. How good is his form? Not the best I’ve ever seen TBH and happy to bet around off 60kg.
Cuban Sunday: Not going well enough this prep to back.
Goldoni: Up in distance is what is needed for this runner and gets it here. Weight is a little harsh but can go close.
Supreme Warrior: Hard to see him measuring up off last few runs here without improving a length or two.
Fabriano: Ignore last start and look to previous runs. Weighted to win once again today and would LOVE to see them push a little further forward today.
Hunger: Disappointing jump last start but hopefully goes forward today. Will get it easy out front and have every chance.
Smarty Mac: Going along nicely. Up to 2000m where 2/2 but is he going well enough?
First Course: Not going well enough this prep.
Underestimation: Can’t back on formlines.
Phantom Brew: Run two back could justify backing but last start was poor.
Mintaro: Not in this class.
Comments: They keep giving us overs for Fabriano and he will get us a win one of these days.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Fabriano E/W.
Caulfield Race 4
Shoreham: A tad disappointing last start at Caulfield when didn’t run on as expected. May have been due to the slow track. Down to 55kg today and gets every chance. Positions well today.
Hvasstan: Lost a plate last start when 1.3L behind Shoreham. Down 1.5kg today while Shoreham is up 1kg after claims. Outside barrier the main issue.
King Diamond: Never won first up but not the worst runner here.
Bass Strait: The moral today if you trust what most are saying. I loved the run but he was ridden for luck and got none. Can’t be ridden like that today and surely covers more ground. Looks short. Big chance, we all know it.
Ranked: Very disappointing first up. Hard ot back here.
Garud: Very strong run over 1400m. Will be MUCH better suited today up to 1700m and should get a great spot and be given every chance.
Soros: Just doesn’t seem to get the wins in better races. Good runner but could I have today? Na.
Lord Durante: Weighted well enough to go close today. Will sit outside of Lightenuff or go on to lead. Both will not set the track on fire with the pace out front… could be value.
Lightenuff: Good win last start but this is much harder and equal weight. Williams jumped off.
Bel Thor: Some good runs this prep but does go better on wetter ground. Still, don’t dismiss.
Desert Wizard: Talked up as a very good horse. Will get all favours getting a sit 1 out 1 back today and down 4.5kg out of WFA-G2 level this time. Goes very close.
Comments: Tough race. Many chances.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Desert Wizard on top from Garud
Caulfield Race 5
Alzora: Hard horse to rate here. Last start showed nothing. Will go further forward today but hard to see improving this much.
Twilighting: Ran quite well last start and two runs back also ran well in similar grade. Weighted very badly today though.
Miss Zenella: Progressive last prep. Needs further than this.
Rose Pattern: Looked to be back in form last start and improved from previous run. Weighted a little badly but can go close.
She Goes To Rio: Almost stole the last start win. Has the ability to run very well here again today.
Angelic Lass: In fine form right now. Last two start to finish leading runs were perfectly ridden and maps to lead again.
Benenden: Good run first up when blocked for runs. Up to 1400m is perfect today and only thing that could stop her from going close is a bad ride.
Two Sugars: Good horse who finished well last prep. May not be THIS good though and only goes fairly first up.
Notice Received: Goes well first up. Probably needs slightly further but this is still ok today. If improved can run well.
Champagne Shisha: Got the win last start and up 200m to a distance that also suits. Will push forward and sit up there again today and have every chance.
Kasane: Disappointed first up. Probably needs further.
Crimson Lady: Hard to back on previous preps runs. Unknown.
Pass The Post: Not good enough for this today.
Baluch: Decent form lines so very hard one to rate. Interesting.
Comments: Hard to be confident here with so many chances.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg One: 5, 6, 7, 8, 12, 16
Strategy: Angelic Lass on top from Benenden
Caulfield Race 6
Second Effort: Didn’t have a good run last start and is simply an ignore run in my good. Back to winable grade today. Loves the track and will go close if gets into a good spot early.
Sea Lord: Not the same horse this prep.
Freereturn: Not the same horse we expect to see this prep. Hard to have in this.
It Is Written: Last two runs had merit but weighted poorly today IMO. Can still go close but others preferred.
The Peak: Hasn’t raced for 8 months. Cummings stable horse now. Won 5 from 7 over this distance and maps to go forward which could put a fair pace in the race. Weighted very well today it seems.
Chaiaramonte: Very strong run 2nd behind Samaready last start at course and similar distance. Samaready came out and brained them on Friday so form lines look REALLY good. Down 3kg today as well.
Cavallo Nero: Last few runs continues to go close without winning. 3/3/3/4. Bossy could be the difference? Will get a spot and be there at the finish. Hardest test yet though.
Richie’s Vibe: Ran very well first up in much easier company on slow. Will that form comes over to the track today? Hard to say.
Office Bearer: Good horse but outclassed last start. Hard to have here.
Force Command: Horrible first up. Did lose a plate. Still, hard to back with confidence here. Needs further.
Tried and Tired: Good win last start at Monrington. Equal weight today is an issue.
Essay Raider: Decent runs last prep without getting a win. Can run well here today but firs tup run was disappointing.
Comments: Have to risk a few in the Quaddie here who have potential.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 5, 6, 7
Strategy: Chiaramonte is weighted to win this while The Peak is the unknown who could blow them all away. Cavallo Nero may get a very small win bet for my own sanity.
Caulfield Race 7
Romantic Touch: Beat home Zoustar last prep which is a very strong formline that is holding up. Didn’t lead first up which was surprising. Should be pushed to lead and go close today.
Charlie Boy: Great win last start at Flemington coming from far back in a fastly run race. Need a lot of luck from barrier today.
Fast ‘N’ Rocking: Disappointing in the Rose. Probably have to ignore run and look to previous runs which were very solid. Can go close.
Long John: One of the best 3YOs going around. Prefers the longer straight at Flemington but form suggests Caulfield will be no issues. Maps well from Barrier 3.
Weinholt: Good run last start but can’t turn tables on Long John.
Eclair Big Bang: Ran vbery well first up in Melbourne. Could improve onwards again. One to watch.
Hill Spy: An ignore run last start. Still needs to find much more to win this today though.
Marwood: Huge spec going around for him today. People suggesting this is the one to beat going forward. times are good… we will see. Maps well going forward.
El Roca: Two runs in NZ were ‘ok’. Not anything to be jumping the pond about TBH.
Ilgattino: Couldn’t win a maiden.
Worth a Ransom: On previous form not good enough for this.
Longma: Ran well enough last start at Flemington. Get the feeling bossy goes on and they may try kick to the lead from barrier 4 today.
Duran: Hard to have on only win on heavy.
Comments: Another race that could be decided by how they go out front. Quite a few of the favs here will be going back and I don’t see an explosive pace going on. Longma is the interesting runner. Does Bossy go forward? Long John is the standout of course.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 4, 8, 12
Strategy: Backing Long John to win with a smaller bet on Longma
Caulfield Race 8
Linton: Got lucky to win last start at Eagle Farm in Group 1 company. Was still an eye catching run and having a short spell is back today. Goes well at distance and has won at track previously. Once again maps to need luck.
December Draw: First up run was poor. Slightly down in weight today and has better 2nd up record. Barrier 2 means gets a sit which helps. Unknown factor today.
Solzhenitsyn: Good horse who just keeps finding 1 to beat him. Very good run last start for 2nd and could imrpove. Maps awkwardly today.
Luckygray: Not the same horse as over in WA. Probably wanting further IMO.
Ferlax: Ran on very well in a slowish ran race. Weighted well today down in class and hard to dismiss.
Budriguez: Not in this on first two runs.
Temple of Boom: Went close last two starts. Prefer on a wet track to be honest and never won at this distance. Barrier 1 very hard to win from.
Rebel Dane: First try down the straight did the horse in it seemed last start. Down 2kg today and meets Speediness 1kg better at weights. Extra distance suits. Barrier is the main issue.
Speediness: Won last start at Caulfield and was impressive late down the straight. Extra 200m does suit. Can go close.
Fontelina: Not good enough on first up run…. but has won in this type of race previously.
Yosei: Always needs luck. First two runs not good enough.
Bonaria: First two runs this prep were very good. Maps ok from barrier 10 and off the 52kg can go close the sectionals suggest.
Thy: Disappointing run last start. Weighted nicely but hard to have off that last run.
Dany The Fox: Will position in a handy position today with no weight. Didn’t want the win enough last start. Big issue for a horse for mine when they lose in a fight to the line!
Mutual Trust: Run was an eye catcher when blocked for runs last start at Flemington. May sit further forward today from outside barrier.
Strawberry Boy: The one to beat for mine. Down 6kg today which means if the similar sectionals are ran and Nolen doesn’t go early… he will be bloody hard to run down!
Comments: Speed map is critical here. Strawberry Boy the only natural leader here which gives Nolen the race in his hands. I love backing these types of rides.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 5, 8, 14, 17, 18
Strategy:Backing Strawberry Boy to win and having smaller bets on Bonaria and Mutual Trust at big odds. Both look value.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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