Welcome to The Profits form for Saturday 17 August 2013 at Caulfield. Flemington was interesting last week. The first race with the lay of the day and the winner pretty much saved what was an average day for most people involved on the punt in Melbourne last week. There is a little bit of re-evaluation that may need to take place during the day of racing today. The rain overnight should give us a dead to slow track and there is really no indication of how the track will play. Caulfield generally is pretty fair to everyone.. but I will keep you all updated on twitter with my thoughts after the staying race early in the card. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 7 Academy Jack
Next Best
Caulfield Race 6 Pago Rock
Best Value
Caulfield Race 1 Imoto
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 12
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 5, 6, 9
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 9, 10
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 5, 6, 7, 8
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Caulfield Race 1
Imoto: Ignore last start and look to previous runs. Won at course and distance four runs back very well on dead. Maps well enough to be there at the finish.
Love For Ransom: Unlucky MEOW runner. Should have won last start and up 4kg today. Bonne Nuit came out and won very well next start as well. Maps very well from barrier 3 today.
Saturday Affair: Won last two in much easier class by 2.5L and 2.5L over in Adelaide. Up in weight and up in class, but hard to ignore those runs.
Mayneda Strategy: Ran well enough last start and should run better on ground today. Probably needs to improve 3L today though.
Bia Diamond: If you wanted to, you could write off those last two runs and look to three back. Gets far back but will be running on late.
Kukla: Weighted well today down in class and up to 1600m which suits. Maps poorly though and could get stuck out if unlucky.
Text’N Hurley: Big win last start and can only improve from that run. May struggle to get as far forward today but will still take up a nice position.
Affinis: Hurdler. Not inning.
Bee’s Honey: Not good enough for this.
Comments: A tough race to start the day. 6 runners could win this race, although there are two clear runners who stand out for mine.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Imoto looks ready to rumble today and is a killer price. Text’N Hurley looks the main danger and has to be savered.
Caulfield Race 2
Chasse: Put in a very strong run last start at 1600m at Flemington. Up to 60kg today looks a bit too much you probably have to say, but he is going super this prep and will improve from last start. Doesn’t speed map the best though.
Pakal: Big run first up in Australia and meets Bit Of Hell 4kg better off today. Looks well in and maps well.
Bit of Hell: Big run last start and just didn’t get the win. Up 3kg today but should have trained on significantly. Barrier 1 looks a major issue though.
Alpha Proxima: Stunning win for us last start at Moonee Valley and went close here tow runs back over 1400m. Up 3kg today may be the issue but maps to go forward and looks a big chance again today.
LuckyI’mBareFoot: Meets Alpha Proxima 5kg better off today at the weights for 2.8L. Maps poorly is the big issue for the horse today. Will be well backed in the market due to the weight factor.
Brian’s Honour: Looking for it to be wet and won’t get that today for mine. Did lose a plate last start at course. Up to 1600m should suit and weighted well enough. Will be there pushing for the finish but this is a super hard race.
Vizhaka: Weighted ok today but still giving up 2kg to Lucky. Hard to see going close today on previous runs.
Comments: Anyone who can back a horse with high confidence in this race isn’t factoring in the international runners who are first up, even if it is one of them. You would need to have inside knowledge of all the three runners to be super confident here.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Pakal maps perfectly today and with the claim from a handy rider will be hitting that line hard. Looks the value runner.
Caulfield Race 3
Exceptionally: Continues to run poorly this prep and people continue to back her. Up to 60kg today looks a very tough task.
Hanks: Not in this on last three runs.
Lucky Eighty Eight: Not the worst run last start but up in class won’t measure up.
Anagold: Wins out of the blue and you just never know what the horse will give you. Weighted significantly better today and Boss jumps on. Prefers it slow than dead is the only issue for mine.
Crafty Cruiser: Been disappointing all prep. Down to 52kg today gives him the best chance this prep but can’t see it.
Noble Warrior: Super disappointing first up. Up in class and down 5kg today. Certainly an interesting runner.
Bells of Troy: Comes into the race as favourite up to preferred distance today. Down 3kg helps and last start ran on very well at MV. Will settle out the back and run on. Can go close.
Noble Park: Not in this on previous three runs this prep.
Rowland: Off 52kg today, I don’t feel the horse is good enough, but could sneak a place?
First Course: Geez this runner has been lucky all prep. Just keeps going close. Off rock bottom 51kg today and back to a firmer ground… which isn’t as bad as some feel. Is a chance! Only issue now is never placed from 10 starts on good.
Phantom Brew: Hard to see him measuring up here.
Comments: There are some runners in this who clearly aren’t up to standard on recent runs. Anagold could show the most improvement down in the weights, Bells of Troy looks the best runner but if they crawl out the front, then she could just be getting there too late. First Course and Noble Warrior are the obvious front runners and could steal this with slow sectionals. Important to note that tracks can play differently for Front/Back runners depending on distances.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Going wide with Noble Warrior E/W
Caulfield Race 4
Safeguard: Showed that he could be something special in both of his runs last prep. Can go forward or back which is super important. Maps very well from Barrier 3 but will need to get a run. Big chance today.
Fast ‘N’ Rocking: According to the stable he is going brilliantly. Ran 2nd to Miracles of Life in the Blue Diamond and then kept running well up in Sydney but just couldn’t find a win. Got too far back in the Slipper. Distance may be an issue? Seems to be wanting further?
Regimental Pride: Showed absolutely nothing this prep and happy to avoid.
Il Cavallo: Won an average 2YO race first up last prep and then failed heavily next start in Sydney with respiratory issues. That is always hard to come back from at top ability and normally takes a run or two. Weighted nicely but will have to do a lot of work to get over from that part of the track.
Hill Spy: Won well first up in Adelaide but this is much harder.
This Is War: Not anywhere near good enough for this.
Duran: Unknown runner. Market only guide.
Tequila Red: Unknown unfancied runner.
Comments: From the looks of the race, it comes down to Safeguard, Fast ‘N’ Rocking and Il Cavallo to win this. Il Cavallo is a lay if anything for me today especially at the price. Fast ‘N’ Rocking is most likely looking for further. There is a big wrap for Safeguard who maps super well today and has the best form from last start around this distance.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Backing Safeguard to win
Caulfield Race 5
Montsegur: Good 2nd behind Guelph last prep but was poor in the Blue Diamond. Backed up at Flemington with a good win over Bulbula but meets worse at weights today.
Metastasio: Missed start and never winning at valley. Have to forgive run.. but is she good enough on that run? I don’t think so?
Bulbula: Going just ‘ok’ at trackwork. Need to have improved a good length on last prep today.
Zellindi: Put in some solid enough runs last prep. Will she measure up? Not so sure myself but does have ability.
Swing Vote: Very big win first up over a talented runner and then ran on for 3rd behind Miracles of Life next start which was a very solid run. Weighted very well today.
Kiss A Rose: Slowly away last start and won very well at course and similar distance. Much harder class today but looked a classy runner.
Spirit of Heaven: Good firs tup win on heavy but this is certainly much harder to judge today. Need to look good and be backed to back it.
Jennyfromtheblock: A few ahead of this filly.
Se Sauver: Couldn’t win a maiden first up on heavy. Hard to see this.
Chloe In Paris: First up runner. Bossy goes on which is always interesting. Has a ‘handy’ half-brother but would really want her to impress in the yard.
Imanana: Injured first up. Hard to see though.
Comments: Hard to back anything here with super confidence. You are really just guessing unless you have seen all these horses trial and jump out. There seems to be a large number of front runners in the race with 7 runners expected to go hard forward. This could set it up for a back marker.
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 12
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Swing Vote looks the most progressive horse in the field while Chloe In Paris is the most interesting. Most likely avoiding this race, but if having a play, small E/W on Swing Vote and a small speculation on Chloe.
Caulfield Race 6
Second Effort: Super win last start in a race that was set up for those to run on. Maps well today once again.
Launay: Will sit further forward today from barrier 1 and goes much better 2nd up with 4 wins from 7 runs. Big chance and better over 1400m than 1200m.
Under The Eiffel: Blocked for runs last start and no chance. Need to improve to win this today though.
Puissance De Lune: 1400m isn’t too short for this very smart runner. Outside barrier will mean Bossy won’t get him blocked for runs this time out. The one to beat.
Under The Sun: Needs to push for the front to run up to best form. Has the ability to go close but has to improve big time.
Pago Rock: Won 3 of 5 runs this prep. Just like 2nd up, ignore that run.. will sit further back today and run on which suits him.
Bianmick: Looking for further.
High Esteem: Won 3 previous before spelling. Good runner but not this class.
Ajeeb: Big win last start at course and distance. Up in class significantly and up 2.5kg which is harsh. Jumped poorly last start but got some cheap sectionals and still won well. Will lead from barrier 3 but probably gets passed in final 100m.
Comments: Second Effort looks the unders in the market considering last start was a PB on a track that isn’t slow or worse. Launay on ratings does go past him and Pago Rock should be ridden correctly today and seems a better horse overall. Ajeeb should set a fierce pace out front which gives the back markers a chance. Pago Rock is the stand out for mine. His last three wins have been very solid and maps perfectly today.
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 5, 6, 9
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Pago Rock gets the nod here today from Puissance De Lune who is a saver. Alternatively, you may find better value in the favourite out markets… but Sportsbet are giving you a good market cash back special for running 2nd to Puissance De Lune in this race as well.
Caulfield Race 7
Bello: Outside barrier but has won 4 of his last 5 runs with only a 2nd behind Riva De Lago who I rate highly as a Group horse. Beat home a classy runner last start at Flemington. Handles any type of ground. Only issue is if the 60kg is too much?
Sea Lord: Not returned in best order this prep. Hard to have.
Dany The Fox: Very classy runner last prep.. this is much harder but does well first up and has won both runs over 1200m… may be wanting further though? Maps well from 6.
That’s The One: Down 2.5kg today after a solid run last start. Never won at track is a concern and will be shuffled further back than wanted today.
Serene Star: Hasn’t won in 7 runs and just keeps finding a few too good. Weighted well today off 54.5kg and will be running on strongly late.
Thy: Never run this distance and probably finds it too short today.. but has won at 1400m. Weighted nicely.
Amah Rock: Meow. Hasn’t won since April 2012. Finds ways to lose races. Has won firs tup and Williams takes the ride. Only won on Dead tracks. Maps average from barrier 1.
Dee Bee Nine: Hard horse to catch. Rates well enough to win.
Academy Jack: Huge run last start at course and distance in much harder class. Down 4.5kg today and rates very well here. Looks to be a solid enough pace in the race as well to let him make up ground.
Lord Durante: Last three runs have been impressive. Weighted well enough to go close again today.
Zoomania: Hard horse to place. Looking for longer I assume.
Colicchio: Only won a fairly average maiden.
Comments: A tough race. There are several runners who have a chance here and it all depends on different situations.. but it is hard to go past a horse that nearly won a WFA-G3 and is down 4.5kg down in class today at the $5 quote.
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 9, 10
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Academy Jack E/W here looks a very solid play. Going large.
Caulfield Race 8
Oasis Bloom: A hard horse to place. Goes poorly first up it seems and seems to be wanting further than 1200m. Should still run well.
Bonaria: Never won first up and always needs a bit of luck to win. Goes well at track but probably needs a longer straight and distance.
Lady Melksham: Classy runner who has won all 3 runs first up. The wetter the better for this runner. Won 4 from 6 at distance and won at track as well. Speed maps very poorly though is the massive issue.
You’re So Good: Distance doesn’t seem to be an issue. Solid form lines last prep and progressive type. Certainly in this and can’t be dismissed.
Octavia: Was weighted to win last start at course and distance and did it with ease. Never missed a place at track. Up 5kg today in a harder class of race and may get hussled along for the lead. The 5KG probably still isn’t enough and does represent a solid runner in the market.
Kneeling: Seemed to get a little too far back (last) last start at the valley and ran on very well behind Henwood who came out and impressed at Flemington last week with a painful 2nd. Up in class and up 2kg is a little harsh is my only issue.
Jolie Blonde: Very progressive runner who has won first up but never run this track previously. Won 4 from 9 at distance and has won a listed race which is similar to this beating a strong runner in Launay. If comes back at best, goes close today. Issue is barrier.
Oriental Ruby: Takes a while to get into her preps it seems and is better suited over further.
Captivating Lady: Super disappointing last start and not sure I could back her today in what seems a more classy race.
A Time for Julia: Times were only fair last prep but seems a very progressive type. Can’t write her off.
It’s Poets Day: Ran very well last start behind Day Procedure at the valley and is up 3kg today for that run. Previous to that beat Legcut. Is really looking for it to be super wet. Don’t dismiss if we do get a slow track.
Easy To Look At: Never placed at distance from 8 tries.
Comments: Has to be one of the toughest races of the day. Octavia still appeals at the prices bet this morning. There are a few runners with question marks who could pinch this.
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 5, 6, 7, 8
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Backing Octavia to win while You’re So Good looks to be the one who could beat her home.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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