Welcome to The Profits form for Caulfield on Saturday 16 November 2013. Well, we have the moved Sandown meeting today at the track. DON’T GO TO SANDOWN. You will end up watching V8’s not Horses! Certainly an action packed card on offer and if the track plays similar to last time on this rail, then I expect we will be in for a good day. Keep a close eye on Twitter as the late mail as of late has been paying off with a $16 winner Wednesday after the rain came and a late addition to the Quaddie at MV last night to get it home. I hope you had a piece of the best value last night also at $10s for the place. Almost got there for the win also. I will be on track from around Race 2 onwards so hope to keep you informed and have a great day! As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good Luck and Happy Punting!
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 8 Platelet
Next Best
Caulfield Race 7 Paximadia
Best Value
Caulfield Race 3 Veewap
Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 2, 6, 8
Leg Two: 1, 4, 6
Leg Three: 3, 4, 9, 10, 11
Leg Four: 2, 5, 8, 12, 13
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Caulfield Race 1
12.15pm start just got pushed back to a 12.45pm start for me. 2YO-LR race with 3 of 9 who have ever raced before. Market movers only appeal here.
0% Confidence
Strategy: Only watch the race to watch for progressive types and any track bias.
Caulfield Race 2
Moudre: Last five runs too poor to measure up today without growing an extra leg. Poorly weighted.
Crafty Cruiser: Disappointed last start. Hard to back off last few runs.
Caravan Rolls On: Meets Mujadale 2.5kg better off today for the run of the race. Absolutely flew that final 800m and from barrier 2 surely they sit a touch closer to the speed than last start. Williams on and Spencer off the only negative for mine.
Mujadale: Big start to finish win last start at Flemington when was allowed to control the tempo and off a good weight kicked clear. Further distance doesn’t look any issue but weighted poorly against the 2nd favourite today and barrier means will do a bit more work early to get the lead.
Planet Purple: Ran on nicely enough last start and is better weighted today. Should run well enough.
Altonio: Disappointed two back but was back to best last start at Moonee Valley. Use The Lot would be going around at a decent price today and if he reproduces last start run he has every chance.
Rowland: Very disappointing last start. Not up to this grade TBH.
Brayroan: Disappointed last start. Weighted poorly today and on two back run can’t see beating Altonio. Needs it wetter.
Like A Carousel: Poorly weighted today against the main threats. Had as good a run as Mujadale last start but just not good enough. Hard to see.
Star of Tralee: Not winning on previous runs.
Diavel: Not even close.
Comments: Caravan Rolls On is the class runner in this race and if gets the correct ride today, will be very hard to beat. Altonio looks the blow out chance while Mujadale could win again off an easy tempo. Planet Purple the real unknown here.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Caravan Rolls on to Win. Saver on Mujadale. Seems a very profitable play long term.
Caulfield Race 3
Mouro: Sale Cup winner in a solid enough time from out the front. Up 1kg and harder company today. Can run well but needs to improve again. Does go well here going close 1st up at course. Barrier means will not get as good a spot today without a bit of work. Horse can come from back or go forward.. Ignoring two back, won 2 and been within 0.8L the other two.
Rain Drum: Very disappointing last start at Flemington. Should have had more to give in the final 200m but boxed on strongly as expected. Will ensure there is a very strong tempo on out front. Not sure deserves to be this short!
Hartani: Strong stayer from Ireland purchased most likely focused on cups next year. Weighted extremely well today off 54.5kg considering the 5.5L WFA-G3 win in Ireland and then 1.8L 2nd in Group 3 company. Both those runs were over 2800m not 1800m and both on slow. Previous run in 3YO class was a start to finish win on Good over 2400m. Don’t dismiss this one. Has been off almost a year and if looks good in the yard, could be loom up and blow them away.
Bel Thor: Solid tempo put on last start at Flemington. Looked the winner a long way out and just strode into it beating home an average bunch. Up in class big time today and doesn’t get much of weight relief. One of the chances.
Veewap: Just ignore last start run and look to two back when 0.3L behind Bel Thor. Huge overs off that alone.
Felidea: Ran home well last start but really did have the race to suit and didn’t finish strongly enough to beat Chile Express. Down 3.5kg and up 400m. Comes in well but not sure I could back in this class.
St Gabriel: Progressive the last three runs and can understand why they are having a throw at the big time. Maps to get a very solid run and will be hitting the line well.
Adjuster: Improved significantly last start at Flemington but has never placed at this track. This looks harder to mine.
Savitar: Had the race run to suit last start at Flemington but couldn’t make up enough ground. Will be out the back once again today and others look more progressive.
Pin Your Hopes: Last two starts in much easier class. Maps to go forward but won’t last with the tempo.
Comments: Tough race on paper. Quite a few chances. Happy to bet around the fav who will put on a very strong tempo. A stab in the dark my two picks but the race should be run to suit. Up to them to show us their potential.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Hartani on top from Veewap.
Caulfield Race 4
Metastasio: Very disappointing last start. Hard to back today on the last few runs. Does go ok at the track but needs to find best form.
Minaj: Won last two but the form didn’t exactly marry up from that race. Maps to go forward from outside barrier. If tempo is controlled (big if) can run well.
Melrose Place: Blew them away down the straight from a solid position but how good is she? Up to 1400m today and up 3.5kg today and worse off at weights. Very happy to bet around her today around a corner track. Will be coming from a long way back.
Politeness: Very solid run last start at Flemington over the 1400m and just didn’t run them down. Maps very well from barrier 3 today and is weighted well down in class. Big chance. Does go well at track.
Mezeray Miss: Disappointing last start but two back went close behind Minaj. Not the worst here and weighted ok.
Sense of Hite: Big run two back and then ran on well after being slowly away last start at Flemington. Weighted much better today as well against the winner of that straight race.. up to 1400m and the yard thinks she is flying.
Raunchy Rocker: Maps to sit out the back today from barrier 7 but you really never know with the Waterhouse yard. First run did jump slowly but still rocketed home. Does look progressive but really this good?
Patricia Dawn: Finished off nicely last start at Flemington and previous run was solid enough here. Does need to find a length or so today in my opinion though.
Longchamp Belle: Every chance last start and just fell out of it. Gone backwards the last two starts. Hard to have for mine and barrier hurts.
Spinning Jenny: Very hard to see any horse progressing from a CL1 up to this. The win was nice last start but really this good?
Love Field: Maiden only winner.. did win it as $1.10 favourite but it was Wodonga and a 5 horse race. Will be leading all the way.. but please?
Comments: Betting around the favourite here. I feel she is unders. Two stand out for mine.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Politeness on top from Sense of Hite.
Caulfield Race 5
Galah: The one to beat. Huge last start and met a VERY progressive Smokin Joey who went close in the Emirates. Weighted well and is very strong.
Lord of Brazil: Last few runs not been good enough for mine. This is much further back in class but will be far back and needs to improve again.
Mahisara: Brave effort last start and meets Richie’s Fibe 2.5kg better off today and maps to lead. Rates to win if ridden perfectly.
Richie’s Vibe: Huge win down the straight in a very fast time. Continues to go close and will once again. Maps very well.
Mister Milton: Last three runs have been very solid without threatening. Doesn’t get enough of a weight turn for mine today
Koonoomoo: Just write-off the last start run when they led all the way. The horse didn’t handle. I can’t back but wouldn’t blame you forgiving.
Freereturn: Disappointing last start down the straight. Hard to see the improvement today.
Eximus: Well backed last start but was very disappointing. I can’t see winning this but maps well enough.
Go The Knuckle: Two back run was eye-catching. Just forgive last start down the straight. Rodd gets the ride and will be flashing home late.
Dozintmateranyway: Hasn’t won since Listed 1600m in NZ. Hard to see the win.
Lady of Harrods: Disappointing last two runs. Down in weight today and won 3 from 6 at track.. but last two runs fell out of it too easily. Extra distance suits but hard to see the win in this form.
Comments: Four main chances for mine in Galah, Mahisara, Richie’s Vibe and Go The Knuckle.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Galah to win. Smaller bet on Go The Knuckle who is very much overs today.
Caulfield Race 6
Precedence: Great win last start. Will get equally as good a spot today and is weighted 2.5kg better off against Sertorius. Is actually better off a shorter straight in my opinion and is the one to beat.
Sertorius: Never runs a bad race but has a recent record of finding ways to lose. Hard to see winning with the weight swing today but will be there or there abouts.
Ransomed: WFA-G1 winner over in New Zealand beating Nashville who didn’t measure up. Xanadu also hasn’t measured up. Going well enough to put in quaddie.
Midsummer Sun: Looks the chance of the swoopers on paper. Last start rattled home very well from dead last. Shorter straight is a concern and up to 59kg today up in class. Won previously at the track. Progressive enough to go close.
What’s In A Name: Not good enough to win this on form.
Epingle: Was the stand out last start at Flemington behind QUeenstown. 2kg worse off today hurts and is better on a short straight, but up in distance looks to be suited and can run well. Don’t dismiss fully from a good barrier.
Detox: Very disappointing prep. Hard to have.
Queenstown: Always there or there abouts in her runs. Big question if she wants the distance… what is for sure for mine is that she is better off on a short straight. Maps to lead or sit outside of Sertorius and should run well.
Kazanluk: Ran on ‘ok last start’ Won’t get as far back and distance increase will suit.. but needs to find another 2 lengths at least.
Miss Zenella: Can’t win if produces previous three runs form. Needs to find 4 lengths.
Comments: Not a simple race. Precedence is the clear top pick while Sertorius, Epingle, Queenstown and Midsummer Sun all have claims.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 6, 8
Strategy: Precedence to win. Smaller bet on Queenstown.
Caulfield Race 7
Paximadia: Great ride and win last start at Flemington. Equal distance today and back to Caulfield. Weighted to win and barrier suits.
Champollion: Disappointing last two starts and three back got within 2L of Paximadia. Hard to see winning from position in run.
Equator: 1kg worse off today against Paximadia which is a huge issue and an outside barrier. Two waterhouse runners in race is always interesting.
Best Case: Ran ok without threatening. Did beat Kirramosa two back over 1600m.
Pompeius: Ran on strongly behind Surge Ahead last start at Flemington out the front. Outside barrier hurts today for positioning but should run well enough. Weight hurts.
Apollo’s Choice: Huge run at Flemington last start. Up 2.5kg today which hurts but probably should have won last start. Key swooper.
Ryker: Very disappointing last start.. but was blocked for a run. Barrier 1 they may try lead.. but with Dunn booked I suggest they are taking a sit.
Inafrenzy: Maiden only winner. No thanks.
Gabble: Maiden only winner in sub-standard time.
De Lago Storm: Couldn’t win a maiden.
Outlandish: Couldn’t win a maiden.
Comments: Two stand out here.
Confidence: 85%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 4, 6
Strategy: Paximadia on top from Apollo’s Choice
Caulfield Race 8
Pinwheel: Ran strong enough last start but needs to improve again. I can’t see it.
Hot Snitzel: Very disappointing this prep. Not for me. Looking for a slow track.
Famous Seamus: Very strong run two back behind Arinosa then last start back in class won well. Up to WFA again today and will get a DREAM run from barrier 2. Will need luck to get a run, but will be close enough to the pace. Big chance.
Pago Rock: Continues to run BIG races without winning. Maps very well again today and has a great record at this track. Weight hurts a little up in class but can’t be discounted.
Vatuvei: Not over this distance.
It Is Written: This is a BIG step up for this horse. Weighted poorly if you ask me against others he has form around. Is a good horse but last two runs been worst.
Amaethon: Very disappointing first up. Can’t have.
Le Bonsir: 2.3L behind Buffering last start isn’t bad form… BUT… won’t get a dream run out the front today with so much pace in the race.
Lankan Rupee: Big win at Flemington last start. Up 3.5kg today in this class which hurts a fair bit. Never won at distance is also an issue.
Platelet: Weighted to win today. Barrier 7 will ensure she has EVERY chance today as well. Maps very well. Suitable distance, suitable track and the rumour was she was going to go very close last week until scratched due to stable issues.
She Can Skate: Disappointing last start at track first up but did improve down the straight. Back to the corner track.. you can’t discount on previous form lines. Barirer the main issue for mine.
Lonhspresso: The unders in the race. Couldn’t win last start down the straight and couldn’t win here two back. Needs to have found 2 lengths for mine.
Jolie Blonde: Not going well enough.
Comments: Platelet is the one to beat while Pago Rock and Famous Seamus are the value.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 4, 9, 10, 11
Strategy: Very confident that Platelet is the one to beat here.
Caulfield Race 9
Hi Belle: Ran well enough first up but previous two runs have been poor. Maps poorly for mine. Prefer it wet on three back run.
Aerobatics: Very disappointing last start at Flemington. Extra step up in distance to unknown distance is an issue. Don’t fully dismiss. Quaddie.
Bonaria: Disappointing last start. Two back was solid enough at course when went close. Barrier hurts today. Should run well enough.
Members Joy: Ridden for luck last start and had to zig and zag too much. Barrier today suggets will be in a better position. 0 wins at track from 11 tries. Is flying still.
Esprit Rossa: Last three runs have been very solid but up in class again today. No issue with that for mine and maps well enough. Does need to improve again though.
Spitfire Lady: Got caught out the front in a backmarker suited race at Flemington. Two back run was nice in similar class. Weight hurts a little.
Wistful: Huge win at Flemington last start while previous runs were all solid also. Back to 1600m not an issue but the barrier is. Need a good ride but if gets that then she will be very hard to pass.
Secret Toy Bizness: Not a hope if repeats last start effort.
Floria: Disappointing last start at Flemington and couldn’t run down the general previous run. I can’t have on recent form but if repeats QLD form can run well.
Twilighting: Run last start had merit but hard to see beating Wistful.
Evie Rose: Good start to finish win at Ararat last start. Similar class of race (slightly harder IMO) but is a good horse and the clear leader on paper.
Blanket Bay: Progressive type. Non winner? Up to 1600m is only a benefit on NZ form. Oliver booked for ride and barrier 1 means gun run.
Comments: Hard leg to finish the day. Wistful looks progressive enough and out the front is very chance. She’s Clean will be storming home if gets a run while Blanket Bay will get the ride of the race and seems progressive.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 5, 8, 12, 13
Strategy: Wistful on top. Spec bet on Blanket Bay.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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