Welcome to The Profits form guide for Caulfield and Randwick on 20 September 2014. Last Saturday went like an absolute dream. Our tips were a gold mine. The opposite occurred mid-week with our best bet ($4.20 into $2.50) pulling up lame in the front two legs, with thumps and slow recovery. Our Next Best missed the start and the race was over from there. That is racing, luck comes and goes! A very competitive day of racing is on hand today at Caulfield. We couldn’t get our confidence factors over 80% today which is very rare. Silent Achiever looks set for the Underwood, but Lidari may just have the quality to cause an upset. Lucia Valentina and Earthquake look standouts up in Sydney to put in their Spring racing claims and i’m interested in how they both run. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Melbourne Best Bet
Caulfield Race 9 Cauthen
Went up around $10 on Wednesday and has come into $7. On my ratings this price is still significant value based on the weight today (down 4.5kg), significant step back in class and what the horse has to beat today. If you compare the Potential of Cauthen to the other runners in this race, there is no question that Cauthen is of Group 1 quality.. after all he already has a 1.5L defeat of Shamus Award and Long John on record before getting injured.
Interstate Best Bet
Randwick Race 6 Lucia Valentina
The most exciting mare going around in the country right now, Lucia Valentina handles any distance, handles any track condition and can win even when the track isn’t playing to her favour. Brave, huge win first up. She flew! Not only do I feel she measures up to this grade today, I feel she measures up to Cups grade and is a serious contender.
Melbourne Next Bet
Caulfield Race 3 Anatina
On my ratings I really only have four winning chances in this race and Anatina is a length clear of any other runner. I do feel Smackdown and African Pulse are both value in the race, but Anatina is also even larger value at the odds being offered. Beat Gregers last prep and ran Tiger Tees to 0.2L in the Galaxy. That form simply wins this race if returns in similar form.
Interstate Next Bet
Morphetville Race 7 Iconic
A juicy price considering the giant win in good company first up at Moonee Valley. Only two to three threats on paper and based on first up ratings looks to have this lot covered. Very happy to be best betting Iconic here.
Melbourne Value Bet
Caulfield Race 7 Lidari
He was the clear eye-catcher for mine in The Cleaner race. Ridden further back than is normal due to the pace expected, hit the line hard and from the barrier today surely sits further forward. Double figure odds on offer when I have the horse rated in the mid to high single digits.
Melbourne Best Place Bet
Caulfield Race 1 Good Offa
This is an absolute spec bet based on someone lumping 4k on E/W yesterday and watching the replay and seeing a horse who has ability. $11 on offer for the place which does look simply overs when I feel the horse can contest for the 3rd place in this race. Not big stakes, just small.
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 5, 11
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 6, 10
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 6, 7, 13
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 5, 16
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1
Bullpit: Clearly hates a wet track and will get it much dryer today. Best seen on cornered tracks on a dead surface. Two wins last prep at MV and Morphetville were decent but didn’t stand out to me. Have to improve onwards again to win this first up.
Petrology: Measured up as a 2YO but was outclassed last start at MV. Couldn’t do it at both ends. Will get a much easier time out front today than last but still will be challenged. Barrier a big issue.
Zeletto: Good run 2nd to Royal Snitzel second up and then got the win easy last start on the long Sandown straight. Back to Caulfield today and a dryer track, he looks a really good colt but will certainly have to improve onwards again.
Temps Voleur: 2YO winner last prep showing best on a heavy surface. Can’t have on face value.
Lazyaxl: 0.5L 3rd to Merion alst prep looks decent form. Suggest ignore first up run, much better than that. Still has to improve significantly again.
Rough Justice: Ran well enough first up but on sectionals needed to find much more to be winning this today.
Lord Barrington: Ran well enough first up at Sandown but needs to improve about 2 lengths at least today to measure up. Has the ability.
Good Offa: Missed the start first up at Seymour and kicked forward doing a lot of work early to sit off the leaders back.. got a split in the straight and put 3 lengths on them in the space of 100m. Back-marker loomed late but was never losing. Looks over the odds here at the $61/$11 for sure.
Deconstructed: Blocked for runs but still got the win first up. Spelled and back today. Market will tell you if you want to be on.
Supido: First start. Well backed. Well bred. Have to respect.
Comments: Happy to spec the $11 on offer for Good Offa to place. Someone has unloaded 4k E/W on one of the bookies and these types of bets are generally a decent indication. Times were sound and I think the horse has a chance to place in this field.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Good Offa to place ($11 currently available at Sportsbet).
Caulfield Race 2
Lotion: Average run last start at Moonee Valley and up to top weight looks horribly weighted!
Cailin Miss: Came home well enough from the back last start. Should improve but has to find a length on last start.
Kaizaen: Got the win at Caulfield on protest in an averagely run race. Has to improve again to win here.
Triple Gold: Resuming today. Very good over the 1600m last start at Flemington when 0.1L 2nd to Crafty. Should test these on ratings of that run.
War Point: Ran home nicely behind Caveka last start in 3YO class. Looks a decent type. Have to respect.
Berning Desire: Big improvement last start to win maiden but the time was very average. Couldn’t touch here.
Hawking: Looked the winner last start at MV a long way out then just fell out of it. Very hard horse to figure out and has the ability. Looks over the odds today. Taking on risk really that he finds his best.
Breath of Life: Had every chance with the ride given last start at MV but not good enough. I can’t see the improvement after that run.
Manhattan Avenue: Decent run last start at Bendigo when got the maiden win. Still has to improve onwards from that for mine.
Firehouse Rock: Continues to improve with runs but has to find another gear today to measure up to these.
Justaway: Ran well enough last start in a maiden but has to find MUCH more here.
Turbo Street: Only two runs on heavy. Don’t dismiss because only a maiden. Yard don’t send them over for no reason.
Anacott Steel: Hasn’t measured up in maiden class so not here.
Comments: Wide open affair. Two stand out for me but no confidence at all here.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Triple Gold to win. Smaller bet Hawking.
Caulfield Race 3
Adamantium: The type of horse who always takes a lot out of his first run and improves onwards. Even off 60kg today this looks a very winable race to me and he looks way over the correct odds.
Kencella: VERY average run first up and fell out of it very fast. Have to find lengths on that run today and won’t get an easy lead today on my mapping. Hard to have.
Wartermans Bay: WA runner whoose best run was in the Winterbottom when 1.5L 3rd to Buffering and Moment of Change. Runs well enough fresh but will be coming from dead last. May need the run.
African Pulse: Tough gut-buster last start at MV. Continues to run well enough and almost got there two back. Goes well enough at track. Claim the key.
Angels Beach: Up 1.5kg on strong second last start at MV firs tup. Will improve second up up in distance. Stewards reported on Wednesday that stable found horse to have a stone bruise which is a concern.
Anatina: Two runs last prep for a win over Gregers first up and then a 0.2L second to Tiger Tees in the Galaxy. Loves the speed on and will get that today. Huge chance and maps well enough.. but wouldn’t be surprised if Williams got her caught 3-wide.
Rifleman: Three runs this prep. Big win first up and then two very brave runs second and third up. Looks a step up in class again here and will run a very brave race.
Planet Voyage: Hasn’t measured up in this quality of race for a very long time. Not today either.
Fast ‘N’ Rocking: Had the snip and is expected that he will turn it around… but first up in this class? I’m happy to bet around him.
Ryker: Decent horse who ran a very strong 3rd in the QLD Guineas after a strong 3rd in the Guineas at Scone as well. Even the 3L 5th to Chautauqua looks ok now. Looking for further to find best.
Big Buddie: You know I love the Big guy but I just can’t back him again today even off the 52kg after claims. Do think he could steal a place if ridde correctly.
Smackdown: Just ignore last start and rate on two previous runs.. MUST be ridden on speed today from barrier and much better weighted here. Remember he ran 1.9L behind Tiger Tees two back.
Bay of Biscay: Not going to measure up in this class based on first up run or previous prep.
Comments: Three runners I want to be on in this race, one at a short price and then two at big odds.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Anatina to win. Smaller bets on Smackdown and African Pulse.
Caulfield Race 4
Veuvelicious: Firs tup run was fine, but didn’t blow any of us away. This is a horse who won 2YO races by 5L and 3.3L on Good and slow. 60kg looks rough. Has the ability but not on what i saw first up I couldn’t back today.
Crafty: I like this filly. Her first up run last prep was very impressive on the slow. She seems to find a lot more on the wetter tracks though than dead or good so a pass for me today especially from barrier.
Fontein Ruby: Won two in a row but this is a jump in class again and Coram really hasn’t measured up as a form line. Can’t dismiss but can’t be confident either.
Golconda: Very average to the line first up. Weighted ok today but does need to find a good 2 lengths.
Berimbau: Found the line ok first up but most importantly was ridden too far back.. more so than normal due to the start. Has the ability but needs to improve today. Looks overs.
Feels Like Home: Found nothing finishing off the race poorly first up. Can’t be on after that run!
Fortiche: Found the line nicely enough but well beaten last start at MV. Still looks a chance but the barrier does hurt those chances heavily.
Not A Happy Camper: Didn’t find much more than others last start. Others preferred.
Pickin’ Time: Well backed last start but didn’t deliver for punters, probably because of the jockey. Can improve up to 1400m whichs hould help but once again has to improve significantly.
Pittsburgh Flyer: Ran well enough without impressing first up. Was suited that day. This much harder from barrier.
I’m A Flying Star: First up win in maiden class nothing special. Hard to have on that run alone.
Miss Interiors: Didn’t find too much last start at Caulfield even with issues in straight. Has to improve out of her skin to place here.
Thinking of You: Decent enough maiden winner for Moody stable. Been well backed.
Imperial Lass: Heavy maiden winner. Not for me here.
Taste of Money: Fm-58 winner. I’d hope she would win that!
Comments: I hate this race. Form lines very hard to match up. Going wide and even then not confident one bit.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Berimbau E/W
Caulfield Race 5
Golden Penny: Showed very little firs tup. Back in class here but poorly weighted. Hard to have.
Five All: Showed nothing both runs this prep. No thanks unless money comes.
Minne Downs: I love this girl but she just continues to run well without winning. Goes well first up and weighted to run well again in a classy race. Barrier kills chances.
Keep De Rose: Only ran fairly first up without impresisng. Happy to avoid again today and watch for next start.
Suavito: Big win last start at course, distance and in harder grade on paper. In reality this is a harder race today. Will need a bit of luck to get in from the barrier but should have every chance not getting stuck on rail. Huge chance.
Members Joy: Didn’t measure up last start either in Listed grade. Up to 1400m a concern on best run being 1100m this prep so far.
Spirit of Heaven: Won VERY well last start at Caulfield but this is a massive jump in class again and up 5.5kg. Looks handled.
Danish Whiskey: Sack file. Can’t be on her anymore this prep after the last three runs.
Lady Cumquat: Oliver jumps off Suavito to ride her. Very interesting. Showed best over further but is obviously flying for Oliver to get off Suavito.
Star Fashion: 0.1L 2nd in 3F-GP1 last prep over 2000m. Showed best over further than this and is trained for that again. Not this run today.
Blanket Bay: Didn’t measure up tot his class last prep and would be shocked by a win here.
Dig A Pony: Huge last prep. Absolutely suited in 3YO class to the Flemington track. Showed best on much wetter tracks and won’t get that today. Too far back for mine first up over shorter distance shorter straight.
Metaphorical: The Moody runner who maps to have every chance today. Good barrier and will be pushing forward. Showed her best last prep in 3F-GP2 class over this distance as well.
Nadeem Lass: Unlucky last start never given a run. Went close three back but once again willl be a long way off them and need luck.
Mezeray Miss: Every chance her last two runs and hasn’t measured up. MUCH harder race today. No thanks.
Comments: I think Metaphorical could be a threat from out the front and deserves to be single figure odds not double. But I keep coming back TO Suavito. This is a horse who looks to have come back even better than last prep. I have ot saver Lady Cumquat simply based on potential and Oliver taking the ride.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Suavito to win. Saver Lady Cumquat.
Caulfield Race 6
Spillway: Ran very well first up and then improved second up over the 1600m. Up to 2000m should suit but will certainly be a fair way back off the pace and will be giving key rivals a huge start.
Ibicenco: Very average first up run. Certainly looking for further but based on that run alone, very hard to have.
Entirely Platinum: Good win first up and then failed very poorly last start at Randwick on the heavy. Can’t really explain it as he goes handle the wet surfaces. Is he actually a stayer or better at 1800m and below?
Our Voodoo Prince: Much improved run last start and has to be finding his best today and beating these to be considered a contender for the Spring. Better suited to a long straight but will be hitting the line lane.
Bonfire: Will be sitting outside of Entirely Platnium today. Ran well first up and then last start at Rosehill was a good run 2nd behind Greatwood on heavy. Can improve again today.
Foundry: Ran poorly first up and didn’t show much more second up either. Hard to have.
Araldo: Not really tested to line firs tup. Will be finding his best over further but probably is wanting further than this to find best.
Kincaple: Showed nothing either run. No thanks.
Let’s Make Adeal: Didn’t show much last prep and first two runs this prep were only average. Can’t see the improvement.
Gris Caro: Two runs this prep. First up very average. Last start was better. Win wouldn’t exactly shock but has to improve significantly.
Albonetti: Looks way outclassed here. Hard to suggest she can place.
Comments: A tough race to bet into. Will the real Entirely Platnium turn up? Will Our Voodoo Prince improve onwards as is required? Can Bonfire show his best on the dryer track? Is Spillway the real deal?
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 5, 11
Strategy: Spillway to win.
Caulfield Race 7
Happy Trails: Ran home very well in this race last prep after an average Memsie result and then continued onto win the Turnbull and 2nd in the Cox Plate. Would struggle to suggest he is the top home here but this is a much easier Underwood than last year. Have to consider on class.
Foreteller: Expect the speed to be strong enough so that he has a big chance. But Bossy is the rider so how can you expect it to win? The price is very short in this class of race today.. expect he can go very close.
Super Cool: Ran well enough again last start without looking a hope. Clearly trained for 3200m this prep and can’t see winning.
The Offer: Surprised with the run first up. Thought he wouldn’t show enough but is still looking for further and wetter to find best form.
Crackerjack King: Thought the second up run had merit considering the run given. Didn’t like the 1600m sprint and will appreciate less tempo over the 1800m. Even David Hayes also suggested the price today is crazy.
Lidari: He was the clear eye-catcher for mine in The Cleaner race. Ridden further back than is normal due to the pace expected, hit the line hard and from the barrier today surely sits further forward. Huge chance.
Star Rolling: Baster got made to look a fool suggesting he would just stroll past The Cleaner last start. Very lucky to win two back and up to the 1800m is getting to the distance that best suits others in this race. Won’t get an easy lead today either. Will be there at the finish but a few passing him.
Thought Worthy: Previously always run well first up. Did have 300 days off between runs when had two runs last prep before given a spell. Looks to need further but expect to see a good run.
Stipulate: Tough gate today but Brambles backed up how strong the win was first up with a win himself. Will continue to improve with runs but this is a big class jump. Has the ability.
Silent Achiever: Ran well enough first up without ever being a threat. Will improve significantly up to 1800m today but will still have to find much more sectional wise to win this. Has the ability and maps well enough.
Comments: Lidari is the horse at odds who stands out on form and I want to be following today while Silent Achiever has all the class to win this from a very good barrier draw and position in running. For those with accounts and promos. Back Silent Acheiver to win at Sportsbet (money back 2nd or 3rd) and back Lidari at Centrebet or Betfair Power Picks Promo to win (money back if 2nd to favourite) looks a more solid play to me that the Lidari E/W.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 6, 10
Strategy: Lidari E/W (Check comments section for more confident play using promos).
Caulfield Race 8
Samaready: Proven WFA-G1 sprinter. Last prep was probably her worst on record… but that being said first up was just 1.5L off Sniterland. Won 3 from 4 at track and always runs well first up. Looks big value at the weights. Suited.
May’s Dream: Good horse but not a true sprinter. Looking for further but certainly don’t dismiss her chances.
Spirits Dance: Tough weight today against these runners. Did go well first up but did fall out fairly easily if you ask me. Couldn’t have at weights.
A Time For Julia: Tough to the line at course and distance last start when 0.4L 2nd to Gregers. Has the ability but has never won 2nd up. A top hope in race.
Enquare: Last prep showed ability but didn’t measure up. Previous prep did measure up. This is a big step up in class.
Politeness: HUGE win in the Autumn during the championships. She is a very classy mare and should measure right up in this class today. Will be sitting dead last on the turn. Never won at track but surface won’t be an issue. Has won three times at distance.
Shamal Wind: Seemed like she was given a nothing run at Moonee Valley never really given a chance to win from too far back. Need to improve onwards again today to win. Weighted nicely.
Real Surreal: Very hard to have her on first up run. Was very disappointing and won’t measure up in this on a repeat of that.
Jessy Belle: Surely over the odds today. Freshened up and I feel her best is over 1200-1400m. Loves the track and will run a very game race as always. Probably lack the zip of the class mares.
Danestroem: Two runs this prep fairly disappointing if i’m fare. Can’t have.
Forever Loved: Eye-catcher first up. Can improve again today. Don’t count her out. barrier does hurt.
Girl Guide: Big easy win first up at MV. This is a huge step up in class though. Hayes is very confident though.
Comments: Two real standouts for me here in Samaready and Girl Guide. Expect Girl Guide to be in the right position coming to the turn to win while Samaready close to her best has this whole field covered.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 6, 7, 13
Strategy: Samaready to win. Smaller bet Girl Guide.
Caulfield Race 9
Black Tycoon: Weir runner at massive odds. Group 2 2nd over 3200m to finish last prep.. but don’t be fooled… he has sprint in his legs. Has won at distance previously and off 58.5kg isn’t without a hope in a fast run race.
Fat Al: Saves his best for further distances. Looking for the run today from the sounds of it.
Lucky Hussler: Well backed first up and just missed. Did a lot run and looks well suited here.
Trust In A Gust: Never runs a bad race and was unlucky just missing last start at MV. Rate the run. Big chance.
Commanding Time: Did alot wrong but ran an ok 3rd to Henwood… yes he lost to Henwood. Not sure I can be on here.
Electric Fusion: Showed nothing either run this prep. Looking for MUCh further.
Pinstriple Lane: 0.2L 2nd in 2400m 3Y-GP1 last prep. Looking for further.
Pin Your Hopes: Goes well enough fresh. All runs last prep were solid as nails. Weighted ok here but this is a huge step in class IMO. Not sure I can have.
Flyingconi: Big win at Mildura set up by a fast tempo. Flew! Repeat today very unlikely in much harder class.
Freshwater Storm: Love this bloke but not the best first up runner and last prep wanted much further.
Felidea: Continues to lose the race at the jump. Can’t trust.
Cauthen: Ran fairly average if you ask me last start in WFA-G2 class… but down 4.5kg today back in class and fitter for the run back up to 1400m looks suited.
Resistant: Decent runner but on first up run has to find lengthsl.
Comments: Finding it almost impossible to go past Cauthen today. Saver on Trust in a Gust.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 5, 16
Strategy: Back Cauthen. Saver Trust in a Gust.
Morphetville Race 7
Keep this one simple. Iconic‘s weighted to win here. Rating out of last start win was huge compared to those backing up in this race today. Yes, Riziz was a good win two back, but last start went under a $1.40 favourite to an average horse! Essay Raider does have the ability to win I agree and he is the saver option. The rest in my opinion pose no threat.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Back Iconic. Saver Essay Raider.
Randwick Race 4
Earthquake vs Winx take two.
It was clear first up Earthquake was lacking fitness and didn’t handle the Heavy track. Winx was impressive but back to a dryer track today they look to be even steven on my ratings.
The key for mine is Earthquake being trained for further this prep and actually wanting the extra distance today. Also the front runners weren’t exactly winning at the track last start either.
Earthquake is the proven class while Winx is the up-and-comer and on a dry surface, i’m very happy to take the price for Earthquake.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back Earthquake.
Randwick Race 6
Not beating around the bush here.
Lucia Valentina is the most exciting Mare going around in Australia right now. She is an absolute jet over any distance and always finds the line on any surface. You may look at here 3rd to Rising Romance as poor on a dead track.. but simply, she was just too far back on a day when it was very hard to make up ground and it was a MASSIVE run. She won’t only measure up in this grade, she will stamp her claim for Cups glory this spring through winning this race.
Comments: This bet obviously relies on the track playing fair to back-markers.
Confidence 85%
Startegy: Lucia Valentina to win.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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