Welcome to The Profits form guide for 31 August 2014. August has been a very kind month to us Best Bets wise and we are hoping to finish off a great month. There seems to be a lot of value around on the cards today so the confidence levels are not as high as the previous weeks. It was great to get our most confident bet of the year, Charmed Harmony, home with ease on Wednesday and hopefully that is a sign for today. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Melbourne Best Bet
Caulfield Race 5 Vain Queen
Based on Vain Queen’s run two back, she should be very very very hard to beat today. Last start she did have breathing issues and that explained her poor run after being smashed in the betting. The odds being bet today are very generous. Certainly a competitive race and not a put in pull out kind of bet, but the odds are more than right and I find it hard to see her being chased down by those at the back unless there is a major bias helping them get home.
Melbourne Next Bet
Caulfield Race 3 Text’N Hurley
An eye-catching run first up behind Tiger Tees down the Flemington straight. She was absolutely gone and looked to be falling out of the race before finding another gear and flashing home. Up in class but also up in distance today, she maps to get a nice spot in the run and is weighted to win. Big chance on the E/W.
Melbourne Best Value
Caulfield Race 7 Thiamandi
Went around a short-priced equal favourite last start at course and distance but failed to hit the line as well as the previous start. I’ve watched the replay a couple of times and i’m very confident that Rodd got the most out of her while Bowditch just couldn’t get the best with the riding style. She will be suited today by the pace being on out the front, sitting just off them and i’m expecting her to not just place, but i’m confident she can win at big odds.
Melbourne Next Best Value
Caulfield Race 8 Super Cool
Those who like this horse, alot, will know I took a stand against it last prep when it went over the 1800m mark and was against the best we have. I believe the horses best runs were over this distance or similar last prep and based on last prep, I feel he should be at least half the quote we are getting today. Never missed a place from 5 goes at track, placed 3 from 4 at similar distances and 3 from 4 first up.
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 4, 9, 10, 13
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 6, 7, 10
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 7, 11
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 6, 9, 10
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1
Veuvelicious: Two very big wins on her record with the best on a Good track. Should find her best here today and weighted very well in this class.
Cailin Miss: Good win 2nd start last prep at Morphetville after a big fail first up in harder class. Need to have improved and be better on the dry for mine.
Top Sight: Good enough first up run and down in weight today… but much harder race it has to be said. Need to improve to turn around form on Veuvelicious for last prep.
Amicus: Good maiden win but then up in grade too far next start when Eloping beat her well. First up run was fair but has to find much more today.
Winesearch: Over from Adelaide, generally McEvoy doesn’t send them without a chance. Have to improve 2-3 lengths on last run for mine though.
Anabring: Maiden only winner. Big jump in class and not for mine on last start even back on a dryer track.
Miss Interiors: Maiden win first up in much easier grade. Not this class on first prep runs.
Embrace The Rock: Looked ok first up in maiden but hard to have here today off the run. Just keep your eye out for this runner late.
Kaizaen: Ok run first up but has to find MUCH more to beat these all home.
Cinnamon Carter: Hard to see it here off first two runs.
Comments: If Veuvelicious returns at 95% today then she has more than enough ability to put all of these away… would want to sit close to the speed for mine.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Veuvelicious to win.
Caulfield Race 2
Keep De Rose: Very good horse two preps back but last prep was way off the mark. Best shown over further. Not for mine here as top weight.
Divine City: First up run showed very little and don’t think she will measure up in this class.
Are There Any: Ran well enough first up to Infinite Energy at course and distance last start. Down 1kg today but in stronger class of race.. maps to have every chance.
Suavito: Very good horse and just continued to miss wins last prep. Runs very well at course and best runs have been on dry tracks. Way back in class for this today and maps to have every chance.
Danish Whiskey: Last few runs have been a little disappointing after showing enough three and four back. Can’t see the big turn around on form today.
Nadeem Lass: Continues to run well without winning. Weighted fairly today and maps further back than i’d like, but still has the ability and chances today on form.
Lorna May: Well backed Hawkes horse and the yard are masters at placing their runners. First up run was good and has form in harder company than this. Big chance.
Winta Chiller: Well backed into favourite last start at course and distance but very poor. Hasn’t been the same horse this prep to be honest and up in class again.
Angelic Lass: Better on the wetter tracks and in less classy races for mine off what i’ve seen this prep.
Vivi Veloce: Hasn’t shown much since 4L defeat at Flemington 2nd to Dig A Pony. Up in class and weight today. Not for me.
Comments: Sticking with the class here.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Suavito to win.
Caulfield Race 3
Count of Limonade: Showed class over in Ireland but was very disappointing in his first prep here with a 2.8L and 9.5L loses. I get the feeling he will be better seen over 2000m on wetter tracks.
Excluded: Good horse but best shown over much further. Big time off with injury and new trainer. Not for me here.
Pillar of Creation: Last two runs very disappointing. Previous run was a good win in similar class. At weights prefer others but win wouldn’t shock.
Prince of Penzance: Good horse and shown best over much further. Has won previously at similar distances and has won first up. Will position very far back.
Eximius: Easy win last start at Flemington and Price told us it was going to occur in his comments a few days before the race. Back to his best. Never won at track is an issue for mine and up 2.5kg today. Harder race but still a chance.
Mr Make Believe: Just ignore last start when got galloped on in a race won by swooper. Best shown on wetter tracks is the issue but nicely weighted.
Commanding Time: Won at course and distance 2nd up last prep but first up got dominated by Sistine Demon. Hardest race for him for a long time and hard to see measuring up first run.
Henwood: Was a brave enough run last start at Moonee Valley when 0.8L 5th. Back up in class here today and down to 52.5kg (6.5kg down from last start) and up to 1400m both suit. Only issue is track condition with the best runs shown to date on wetter tracks for mine. Loves a glass of milk.
Ominous: He had a very good last prep but never won first up or at distance. Just for the run.
Signoff: Won 6 of 7 in his first prep and looks a strong mature type. Will run well today even at the distance which I would suggest isn’t suitable knowing he is being trained for further. Weighted nicely though… but this is his hardest task to date by far.
Bass Strait: Disappointing last prep up in this grade when he couldn’t get a win. Did show enough and word is he has trained on well enough. Does want further.
Text’N Hurley: First up down the straight she was the eye-catcher. She was gone at the 200m then lifted the final 50m to hit the line VERY well. Screaming for the 1400m today and has the class to win this. Big chance.
Comments: I can’t pass up Text’N Hurley off the run last start. Weighted nicely and combo with a jockey who has a brilliant record onboard.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Text’N Hurley E/W
Caulfield Race 4
Grand Emperor: WAY back in class here. Has to measure up on previous ratings but never placed on good!
Merchant: Ok win last start but others better suited for mine. Was flattered by the Geelong surface IMO.
Petrify: Very good run first up down the straight at Flemington in Listed company and then a solid run second up. Big chance if repeats firs tup run today.
By The Grace: Very good horse. Last two runs of last prep were very good and I could argue he should have won the two previous races as well. Will be far back today but every chance.
Champollion: Only run last prep was very poor. Only measured up once the previous prep for 3rd and other runs were bad. Obviously a decent horse but couldn’t have first up and best seen on wet.
Neverending Valley: Over-raced his way out of the race last start. Better weighted today but best runs have been seen on wetter tracks. Don’t discount either way.
Celestial Century: First up run was solid but didn’t impress too much. Have to find much more here.
Final Jest: Proved to be a good horse the last two preps but not a world-beater. This looks his type of race again today and even though he is better suited to 1400m, you can’t count him out here at all.
Late Charge: Ran well last prep in 3Y-GP and 3YO races but just couldn’t bridge the 2L gap. Weighted very very very well today but is 1200m far enough?
Marwood: All three runs this prep were quality and form lines have held up. Can run well again today.
Precious Gem: Unlucky first up blocked for runs. Last prep showed she had the class to match it with them in town with wins at Moonee Valley. Horror barrier and never won first up.
Stamina: 2nd x2 to Arabian Gold and beat Bull Point last prep. First up run was very poor down the Flemington straight. Way back in class here and if produces a run close to the ratings of last three runs of last prep then is a huge chance today.
Paige’s Boy: Can’t fault last start at course over 1600m but step back to 1200m a little too far for mine even with better weight.
Aces and Angels: Big run for 2nd to Sino Eagle two back at course and distance. Best seen on dryer tracks and looks suited today.
Remagen Bridge: Time was ok on first up win but this is a huge step up in class. Did run Sistine Demon to 0.2L last prep.
Olivier: Best runs have been on wet tracks so I simply can’t have here.
Tycoon Express: Continues to run fairly but can’t see the win or place here.
Running Bull: Very good win yesterday at Geelong for us as our Twitter Tip, surely they don’t back up today.
Comments: This race is an absolute cluster buck. How many chances do you want in a race that are you are betting into? There are a good 10+ live chances. Just watch.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Stamina small win bet. Even smaller on Petrify.
Caulfield Race 5
Flamberge: Will push forward from barrier today and get a good position in running. Never won on a good track but always runs well enough. Goes very well first up and at distance.
Richie’s Vibe: WFA-G2 winner last prep beating WFA-G1 winner Moment of Change. Failed final two runs of the prep though. Will be a LONG way back but money has come for him. 5 runs 0 wins at track a concern though.
Broken: Not going well at all.
British General: Hasn’t been seen for 9 months. Very good horse and got another listed race last prep at course over 1400m. Will try and lead but not sure this distance is ideal for him. Don’t fully dismiss though.
Pago Rock: Hayes didn’t sound overly confident that he is going to be winning today “Whatever he does he will improve on”. Does have a 5 wins from 7 record first up and loves the track and track condition though!
Hard Stride: Got the lead last start and was never headed. Won’t have that type of ease today, but he will still have a very good run and may just be suited by the 1100m. Poorly weighted for mine though.
Uate: Can’t have him here. Hasn’t won since 2012 and looks way out of his grade here first up.
Lonhspresso: Never won first up but always well backed. 1100m slightly too short for her for mine. Will be very far back in run. Not for mine.
Big Buddie: The big guy! I can’t ever count him out but he does look way out of place in this race.
Rifleman: Keeps running some very good times and will be suited by the extra 100m today.
Couldn’t Agreemore: Big run first up. This is a step up for sure but he has the ability.
Smackdown: Can’t believe they are betting $50s again for him. He didn’t exactly blow me away the last two runs but he was solid, again. Ran 5th 1.8L to Tiger Tees at Flemington and back to 1100m looks suitable. Probably best will be seen back at 1000m if i’m honest. Good track the key.
O’Malley: Step out of 3YO class to open will see this talented horse not find the line first, not to mention Bossy on board either. Has a future but this is a big step.
Vain Queen: Respiratory issues last start at Flemington when backed for a stack and our Best Bet for the day with a huge confidence %. Boss off, Williams on. Bottom weight, every chance.
Comments: Very competitive race. Vain Queen deserves to be favourite on what she has shown and a repeat of the 1:02.4 at Flemington two back would be almost impossible to beat today. Richie’s Vibe could be the one most suited by the hot tempo and hitting the line very hard.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Vain Queen to win.
Caulfield Race 6
Zululand: Very good run first up ridden for luck and didn’t get much of it in the final 100m. Untested to the line in final 100m and I reckon would have gone close. Extra 100m the key today that suits. Maps well from barrier. Hayes doesn’t like the weights today but thinks he has improved.
Boomwaa: Good run first up. Got past Nordic Empire which was a tick for me. Never won on Good and best runs have been on slow is the issue for mine. Also best runs have been on 1000m for mine also. Others preferred.
Moonovermanhattan: First up 2YO-G3 win on Heavy was good… but Good track today so hard to judge on that run alone. Hard to have in this class?
Tan Tat Diamond: Wasn’t very impressive until the final 50m and just got the win first up at Flemington. Not sure he is good enough for this.
Cornrow: Last 100m was ok but was never on the track from too far back first up. Still a maiden for a reason?
Jabali: Further back than expected after a poor jump. Wide barrier today. One paced in the straight last start. Not for me.
Nordic Empire: Decent run last start at course but Boomwaa out-toughed it over him and on that alone I can’t have him here. Will find a few too good.
Chivalry: Been well backed off a strong first prep. Best run was over the 1000m but did run well on a Good track behind Rubick from the back.
Stingray: Very good run last start. Got blocked in the straight by the winner and that cost him the potentail of getting the win. Barrier only issue today. Big chance.
Awesome Rock: Showed best over further in firs tup run and a few in this beat him last prep as well.
Forgive and Forget: Hayes didn’t sound too confident. Good 2YO win but last start was ok but finished off nicely. Classy field.
Novel Dancer: Maps much better today from barrier 4. Was a fair gap to 4th last start and will appreciate being on the track today, bottom weight and position in running.
Comments: Four key chances for mine. I have to take on Novel Dancer today taking on the males here. The run last start was good and there is improvement to come, but the price looks wrong. Chivalry will be too far back for mine also.. Have to have in quaddie but not outright. Stringray was the eye-catcher last start and looks a top winning hope while Zululand was also brave to the line and will appreciate the extra 100m today. Moonover has to go in the Quaddie on potential and mapping.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 4, 9, 10, 13
Strategy: Stingray E/W
Caulfield Race 7
Dear Demi: Never won first up or at track (runs in much harder company and never missed a place). Suited by good tracks but didn’t show too much last prep at all. Not for me.
Commanding Jewel: Last win was over a handy horse called Catkins before getting injured. Back today and Oliver takes the ride is a key for me. Goes well at distances and good tracks. Looks a nice price.
Gregers: Big, easy win last start at Caulfield. Won’t have an easy time getting the front if that is what she wants today though and this isn’t going to be as easy as that race at MV. Big chance but others are threats in this race for sure.
Bonaria: Average first up and way too far off. Better over 1400-1600.
A Time For Julia: Very good horse over this distance winning two or her last three. Runs well first up and at track.
Thiamandi: Looks a huge price today all things considered. Big WFA-G3 win two back and really I didn’t think she was suited by the race last start. Looks huge odds here and is hard to ignore.
Five All: Very poor first up run. Up in class and up in weight. I can’t see it here.
Real Surreal: Measured up last prep and previous prep around Sweet Idea and other talented runners. First up today and every chance in this class on a good track from barrier 3.
Hazard: A horse I have a lot of time for. Goes well at track, course, distance, but her best runs have been over 1400m+ to be fair and in lesser grade. Big improvement required to win this first up!
Sino Eagle: Very strong win first up and then ran home well behind Tiger Tees last start. Barrier hurts but shouldn’t be too much of an issue. I’d need to see her measure up to these first.
Forever Loved: Being aimed at much further distances this prep and best has been seen over further. Not in this grade at this distance for me.
Comments: A very open race with several chances for mine. I think Gregers is certainly unders in this race after being a best bet for us last start. The tempo will be much different today and she has to give weight to some fairly handy runners. Thiamandi is the horse with the most improvement to come from last start to this start for mine with the jockey change today. Real Surreal is the horse with the most ability in this race and i’d certtainly be tempoted to have some money on her.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 6, 7, 10
Strategy: Thiamandi E/W
Caulfield Race 8
Happy Trails: Very poor run first up. Shown his best runs at further than this and further into prep last prep also. Will appreciate the Good ground instead of slow today though. Happy to bet around him here.
Boban: Huge run last start when suited by the pace. Missed start by 2L and blocked for run near turn but got home well for 0.8L 4th. Suitable distance today but issue is barrier and if the track is playing to swoopers this late in the day with such quality close to the front.
Moment of Change: Good enough run first up over 1200m off the 62kg. Down to 59kg today and equal weights with most the runners or close enough. Best runs seen have been at course and distance on Good and he is 4 from 5 at track. Clearly maps well.
Super Cool: Didn’t show us too much last prep if you ask me, except the first two runs and looked suited by these distances. Maps awkwardly but should be one of the most suited today. Not out of it and a big price. Maps well.
Sertorius: Disappointed a few runs last prep, not getting a win. Similar class here today and back to a Good track.. never missed a place here but distance isn’t suitable in this class. Need to have found another gear for mine.
Puissance De Lune: Ran well enough first up. Best rating last prep was on a Good track but does want further on that first up performance.
Messene: Looked the winner several times down the straight at Randwick but Sweet Idea just kept kicking and found more in the end. 0.5kg worse off here today but up to his pet distance. Is he a WFA horse yet?
Dissident: Measured up in 3YO level but this is another class. Happy to take him on here today and judge on this run going forward.
Silent Achiever: In for a huge prep and I’d be shocked if she doesn’t win something big this prep if she returns in similar form. Won first up last prep over in NZ in much easier class really over 1500m. Happy to avoid today and back next start over further.
Gig: Not in this class for me. Keeps running well but this is much harder again.
Sweet Idea: Loves a good track and goes well at this distance… but on form she is better suited to 1200m.
Comments: One of the toughest races of the day. I’m going to take on Sweet Idea today up to 1200m. In my write-up i’m also going to take on Boban due to the price and being a back-marker in this classy field. I’m not sold just yet on Messene in this level of class and am also going to take him on at the price. Moment of Change is proven at this track, distance, weight and on this surface. Most importantly, has won in WFA-G1 multiple times. Super Cool is the horse I think that is best suited starting his prep at this distance and is a huge price here.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 7, 11
Strategy: Moment of Change to win. Also betting Super Cool E/W.
Caulfield Race 9
Ibicenco: Won and course and distance 5 runs into last prep beating Mr O’Ceirin JUST by 0.1L last prep. Been off a good 9 months. Did also win a Group 3 after that on Heavy to get into the Melb Cup. Average first up record.
Masked Marvel: Obviously not the goal today but is a good short with 3Y-GP1 win over Brown Panther in the UK. Best runs on a Good track also. Has won first up previously as well.
Mr O’Ceirin: Never won from 14 attempts on Good but did run a strong 2nd last prep. Distance is right but ground will do him in. Maps nicely though.
Brambles: Improved run last start. Back in class here and up to a more suitable distance…
Kincaple: Showed nothing first up. Distance today more suitable but hard to have.
Stipulate: Will improve onwards and upwards regardless of what he produces today. Can run well at this distance and needs a good track to find his best form suggests… but doesn’t mind any kind.
Aralado: Big win over Sea Moon last prep at Flemington and continued to measure up. Best shown over further though.
Let’s Make Adeal: First up run was fair but didn’t impress me to be quite honest. Has to find another gear 2nd up and even then i’m not sure.
Trade Comissioner: First up run was decent. Didn’t measure up to the full last prep but could improve here.
Marksmanship: Won 3 in a row in similar class of races. Best shown on wet grounds.
Single: Hard to see the extra improvement today on previous tow runs but could place.
Correggio: Good run 2nd last start back down in distance. Up to his best distance today, this horse is very off and on.
Road Trippin’: Hard to see the win today off that effort last start and up in distance.
Goldoni: Tendon rehab. Can’t have.
First Course: Can run well but won’t be winning.
Comments: Tough way to finish off the day that is for sure.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 6, 9, 10
Strategy: Marksmanship on top due to mapping of this race.
Please Note:
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