Welcome to The Profits form guide for Sunday 28 September 2014 at Caulfield for Group racing. Confidence levels were much lower yesterday at Sandown than Friday night and the results certainly didn’t go our way with a track upgrade also seeing Charmed Harmony scratched from running. The confidence is back today with a much higher quality card (60k+ avg prize money per race compared to 35k says it all really) and we are also back to a track our results are known to come from. No 90% confidence today but we are in the 80% for most of the quality races today. Arabian Gold was an eye-catcher yesterday and is worth an early futures bet on for the Cox Plate. Enjoy your day and get on track if you can. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Melbourne Best Bet
Caulfield Race 6 Rich Enuff
Continues to run close to track records and has impressed me more than most horses this season have. Does it early and also late in his runs and has the will to win which you simply can’t put a price on in a horse. Barrier today is the concern but not really, he jumps well generally and shouldn’t have an issue rolling into this. The price on offer is far over the odds I wanted on my ratings.
Melbourne Next Bet
Caulfield Race 7 Dissident
Backing him on the each-way today looks a very solid bet. Giving most the field a good 4.5KGs, this is a horse who has won his last two runs in WFA-G1 class races. Back down to 1400m is the key for him today for mine. He looked exposed at the end of the 1600m last start and I don’t think his best is further than the 1400m. Rates and maps to run very well and only an improver will prevent another win. Great price on offer. Many bookies offering specials on this race such as Sportsbet money back 2nd or 3rd in the race looks a sensational offer for backing him.
Melbourne Best Value
Caulfield Race 8 It Is Written
Top weight today in a very winable race, his run first up behind Lankan Rupee and Angelic Light beaten just 2.5L when a good 5-6 lengths back at the turn was sensational. Dropping back from WFA-G2 to Listed company. Barrier today is the only concern but at the odds ($26 best around as posting), i’m very happy to take the barrier risk. Rated as a single figures hope.
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 5
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 8
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 6, 11, 13
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 5, 10, 13
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1
Reckless Assassin: Ran very well last start in harder company but a jockey error letting Rememba Howe lead it up cost her the win. Best runs are from the front and will be back out there today. Very hard to get past and maps to lead. Top chance.
Bells of Troy: Showed nothing last prep apart from first up on slow over 1600m. This is as low in class as you will see her and she is weighted ok. Market telling.
Danish Whiskey: Sack file the last few runs and won’t be coming out of it today.
Aliyana: 0.5kg worse off against Reckless Assassin from last start and was well held to the line by the Assassin. Hard to see the imporvement here.
Winta Chilla: Top chance here today. They crawled last start at Flemington in much harder class than this and she still finished off nicely. Flying right now and step up to 1800m is a big risk IMO but she is crying out for a little more… i’d have gone to 1600m. That is the only concern.
Clear Direction: Won three in a row and then top a step up in class again last start at MV and ran home very well. Tempo did set it up. Better swoopers for mine in this.
Spiderbella: Ran well enough in much easier firs tup. Not very well weighted against this lot + jockey.
Good Thinking: Struggle to see her placing off first two runs this prep.
Noble Twostep: Not the worst horse going around today and weighted well enough. Can run a cheaky race and could place.
Comments: Two clear chances for mine and happy to play around them. Two horse play.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Backing Reckless Assassin and Winta Chilla to win equal amounts.
Caulfield Race 2
Hartani: Williams horse. Only run in 2013 was dead last. Irish winner in WFA-G3 by a large margin and found best on slow tracks. Needing further than this and weight looks tough.
Kapour: Very poor first up from out the front. Up in weight down in class here. Up to 2000m has to suit and surely has to be better than that?
More Than Sacred: 3.3L 3rd to Who Shot TheBarman in Group 1. Did win a Group 3 as well last prep over 2400m. Best seen over further. Don’t dismiss.
Beyond Thankful: Had every chance last start at Flemington but didn’t find much. Back in class again today but has to find MUCH more here off the weights. Others preferred.
Shikarpour: Very poor return first up. Back in class but Good track again and can’t see this improvement 2nd up.
Count Encosta: Never runs a bad race and has been first or seocnd all runs this prep. Similar company today and will run well again, but is he better than all of these today? I’m not convinced on last start but back to 2000m is the key.
Pyrrolic: Ran very well last start over the 1600m and everything suggests will improve again at the 2000m. Loves a Good track and rates very well.
Wrotham Heath: Got the win last start at Moonee Valley but certainly had to work to get it. Should have won two back behind Count Encosta also. Will run well but will he measure up?
Longeron: Weighted very well today back in class after a strong 5th at Flemington out the front all the way. Best runs been seen on dead or worse so good track today does his chances in for mine.
Kim Command: Didn’t beat much last start and not getting that wet today. Not for mine.
Bring Something: Showed nothing first up at Sandown. Up in distance today will suit and second up will run much better than first, but probably looking for another run on everything we know.
Gridhian: Hard to see him making the grade today although did run well behind Liverly and QUick Snitz in two or last three runs.
Comments: I’ll be taking on Count Encosta and Wrotham Heath form in this race today. Pyrrolic is the horse I want to be betting on here. I also think Kapour’s first up run has to be ignored. It was too bad to believe and he measured up in group company at similar distances over in France and looks big odds.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Pyrrolic to win. Smaller bet Kapour.
Caulfield Race 3
Miss Steele: Progressed strongly last prep after a disappointing first run and claimed a FM-GP3. Up to 59.5kg today but in a winable race, maps well from barrier 3 and looks a big chance. Best runs seen on wetter surfaces but the run on Good was still very solid.
Minaj: Very disappointing first up run in harder company at MV when was very weak to the line. Weighted nicely here but does have to improve significantly.
Hai Lil: Every chance last start to finish prep in harder race and couldn’t get it done. Back in class but weighted fairly harshly for mine. Best shown on wetter.
Griante: Very green last start and pulled up lame in both front legs. Have to suggest we forgive for that run but its certainly hard to suggest she improves after being lame.
Flash of Doubt: Good win last start at Mornington, almost by default i’ll say beating an average bunch. Has to improve to run well here.
Koe: Showed nothing only run last prep and didn’t measure up previous prep. Not for me.
California Storm: Decent enough first run in Melbourne but has to find MUCh more than what she showed first up. Can’t see the win, can place.
Red Fez: Talented type in this type of grade and got a city win last prep. Going well enough but like to see the run to start with, wanting further.
Quick Lover: Good win first up from the back over in Adelaide. Have to pass a wall of horses here. Hard to see it but that was a good win first up and no weight today so i wouldn’t be shocked.
Awasita: Going well this prep but in the right grades on form. Have to improve again.
Kiss Me Ketut: Very good horse who stood up in city grade last prep. TOugh ask first up for mine in this grade. Happy to just watch her run around today.
Vain Attraction: Not good enough for mine. Has to find much more to measure up here on form this prep and previous prep.
Chiquada: Got a win to finish the prep last prep. 51kg but too short a distance? Can’t fully discount at the price.
Choose: 3YO winner over in Adelaide and looked to be a progressive type but first up run showed very little and I couldn’t back here today.
Shades of Bella: Good win first up and then in easy company fairly poor last start. Not very well weighted either today for mine. Surprised if wins.
Comments: Miss Steele looks a very good price in this grade today. This is a group winner who is starting at the correct distance and maps well. Big chance and big price.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Miss Steele E/W
Caulfield Race 4
Black Tycoon: Showed nothing first up and can’t see much better today.
Shoreham: Every chance first up but didn’t find enough to the line for mine. Up to 1700m helps but wanting much further.
Le Roi: Injured to finished off last prep and coming back from that is always a concern. Distance is fine and won at similar 2nd up last prep in this class. Beat better types also. Maps well.
Massiyn: Not won since 2012. Did run some decent enough races since coming over here in 1950m and 2400m races but nothing this short. Hard to have.
Prince of Penzance: Not going well at all this prep. Couldn’t have today on either run.
Excluded: Gone. Can’t have.
Commanding Time: Ran very well both starts this prep but was never a winning hope. Up in distance should suit but has to find more than last two runs to win this.
Electric Fusion: Showed nothing either run this prep. Needs further than this still but should run well up in distance.
Extra Zero: Ran home well behind Late Charge without looking the winner. Did run Akzar to 1L and 0.5L last prep remember at Flemington. Good chance.
Bass Strait: Had his chances the last two runs and not good enough. Not here.
Practiced: Only run last prep had a lot of merit. Hasn’t been seen for more than a year and a half though and did run 2nd to Puissance De Lune in the Bendigo Cup. Needs further to find best but has ability.
Pretty Blonde: Darwin Cup winner (thanks to the place changes due to druggy Sorcerer). Not been seen since which is a nice spell but barrier 17 and this class today makes it very hard for mine. Price does look a little overs though.
Kenjorwood: 51kg again today and the win was very good last start at Flemington. Barrier 1 also helps and will get to a nice spot during run. Has to improve again though.
Captain Fancypantz: Love the pants! First up run was nothing but wasn’t expected to be. Getting up to the right distances now but think he needs the run.
Snow Cover: Very much surprise winner last start off a slow tempo and win. Hard to see the repeat here.
First Course: Ran The Clear to 1.5L just three runs back and then last two runs have been very average. Horse clearly is crying out for a wet track and won’t get that today. Keep an eye on him as we will get a VERY good price the next two to three runs.
Comments: An interesting race to rate. Kenjorwood has to be respected and has some of the hottest form lines right now. Weighted to win. Le Roi returns here and if returns as well as three back run at MV, wins this also.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Kenjorwood on top from Le Roi
Caulfield Race 5
Bring Me The Maid: Very keen to be taking on BMTM here today at the price. She is a gem on the wet but she will be back with this group in a Good track and 1400m isn’t the ideal distance either if i’m honest. Avoiding.
Go Indy Go: Just throw out the first up run and look to last prep which is solid form. She just didn’t want to race first up. Looks a big price today considering she was 2nd Thousand Guineas favourite before the start of the season and up to 1400m is ideal.
Aimee: Good enough times on her wins at 2 and 3. Has to improve again today but looks a nice type.
Sabatini: Found out by a few better last start and up in distance unsure whether is required or will help but hard to see winning here.
Aflett Espirit: Continues to improve and Hayes has a big opinion of her. Can improve onwards again and maps to be closer to the speed today. Big chance.
Amicus: Every chance off a slow tempo last start at Caulfield but not good enough. I don’t think she measures up to these.
Traveston Girl: Hype horse and failed to impress. Every chance as well but nope.. Not for mine.
Novel Dancer: Ignore last start and rate on previous runs. Does have to find a length or two at best though.
Pickin’ Time: Looks to have ability. Finds trouble in races. Should have clear running today.
Comments: Taking on the favourite today and sticking with two class runners in Afleet Espirit and Go Indy Go.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 5
Strategy: Afleet Espirit on top. Go Indy Go a win bet also.
Caulfield Race 6
Ghibellines: Ran home nicely last start at Flemington. Good horse and will run a nice race 2nd up as well, but probably just doesn’t find enough to win for mine.
Rich Enuff: Huge run lat start to win at Flemington. Run of the day. Deserved to stop running but just kept going and going. Surprised, even shocked, by the price being bet today. Big chance.
Our Vespa: One of the best going around in NZ right now, but only just won a 3YO-LR last start. Will be out the front but happy to be against him even if he has won some of their best!
Lucky Tom: Running very well but this is a big step up in class. Trainer thinks he wins but thats a trainer for you!
Moonlight Hussler: Shown nothing all prep. No thanks.
Looks Like The Cat: Big first up run behind Rich Enuff. Barrier 9 is a decent barrier in this field today and he should get a solid enoughs pot in running. Ran 0.3L 3rd to Almalad over 1600m last prep so we know he is proven over the distance and this is why he is favourite today.
Stingray: Simply didn’t enjoy the pace put on last start at Flemington and might have also resented the rock hard track condition. Forgive but barrier doesn’t help chances.
Awesome Rock: Ran home well enough two back but last start just didn’t measure up. Hard to see the improvement on that last run.
Liberation: Best run shown on heavy behind Scissor Kick. Runs on Good have both been decent this prep but has to find lengths to beat this field IMO.
Windjina: Ran out the front and set the stupid speed and fell out of it very quickly last start. Not here.
Soldi Domani: QLD runner coming down to try and measure up. Hard to see that occuring and barrier sucks.
Armada: Wang maiden winner. Not measuring up to these on times or on previous prep form.
Convincible: Couldn’t win a 3YO-64 first up!
Comments: A great race! Rich Enuff is going to be very hard to beat again today.Looks Like The Cat maps very well and deserves to be close to favourite. Ghibellines is the one who could come over the top of them while Our Vespa the NZ runner is the unknown of the race.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 8
Strategy: Rich Enuff to win. Saver Looks Like The Cat
Caulfield Race 7
Dissident: Giving 4.5kg to the whole field excluding Speediness today looks a very tough ask. WFA-G1 winner the last two starts over 1400m and 1600m. Back to 1400m here VERY interesting considering they are going to the Cox Plate? I personally feel he is a MUCH better horse over THIS trip than over further so this will be ideal. I think he can win and he is BIG odds.
Speediness: Eye-catcher first up over 1200m and will improve onwards again today. Weighted nicely enough today and enjoys a good surface. Have to pass a wall of them though.
Sweet Idea: Best runs seen over shorter distances such as 1200m. Did run very well last start at Caulfield but deserved to find much more than she did. Meets Dissident much better at the weights but has to improve.
Alma’s Fury: Poor first up for mine. hard to see here.
A Time For Julia: Continues to run very well without winning. Massive step up in class. Couldn’t have here.
Atlante: Very good win first up. Massive step up in class here but is a strong runner over this distance with a close 2nd to Dissident last prep. Have to respect at weights.
Cluster: Continues to improve each run into this prep and got the Group 2 last start. Poorly weighted up in class again though.
Sistine Demon: Ran well enough first up down the Flemington straight. Wants further and gets it today. Will improve but this is a big step up.
Rhythm To Spare: Hard to see this bloke measuring up after the first up run.
Akavoroun: Ran well enough first up without exactly impressing. Beat The Cleaner two runs back which is impressive but found best on a slow track. Likes all ground types but needs to improve to win this.
Bull Point: Flying right now and Waller believes has improved onwards again. Suggests he will find his best today. Weighted to go close.
Late Charge: Continues to run well and hard to ignore here today. Does need to find a good 2 lengths at least to measure up.
Trust In A Gust: Found another gear last start and wonv ery well at course and distance. Time was sound and should measure up off ratings.
Gig: Close again last start. Big step up in class again… will be hitting the line soundly as always.
Comments: He is giving them all a few kgs, but I just can’t pass up on Dissident E/W at these odds.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 6, 11, 13
Strategy: Dissident E/W
Caulfield Race 8
It Is Written: Ran on well enough first up behind Angelic Light. Back down in class here but top weight which seems fair enough. Barrier hurts chances heavily.
Pago Rock: Continues to put in average runs. Will put it together in a run or two. Has to improve alot.
In Cahoots: Good run first up behind TErravista and then last start also ran very well 3rd behind Chautauqua down the straight. Maps further forward today from barrier and looks a big chance on ratings.
Office Bearer: Listed winner last prep.. this guy is hard to get a hold of. Goes well first up.
Territory: Decent BM-90 win last start at Rosehill but this is another level. Hard to see the win.
Watermans Bay: Listed winner over in WA. Much harder here today and first up for stable. Horse best longer into runs.
Happy Galaxy: Horrible last prep and hard to see where the improvement comes from.
Vain Queen: Should have won last start. That doesn’t pay the bills. Williams kicked off and Sadler puts his own flesh and blood back on, someone he can trust. Goes well at track and at distance. Respect this class.
Haussmann: Decent enough last prep but this is a big step up for a first up run. Not for me from barrier.
Lion of Belfort: First up run was improved compared to the two runs last prep. Has the ability but i’d rather see another run from him.
Target in Sight: Huge through the line last start at Randwick, very much an eye-catcher. Have to respect the time and class here.
About Square: Good horse a nice win first up. Must improve lengths though.
Turquoise King: Hawkes runner that continues to improve but MUCH harder here and I can’t see him placing. Huge unders.
State of Wealth: CLS6 winner very lucky to beat Diamond Oasis up in QLD. Not in this.
Fare Well: First up run was solid enough to run well in similar grade but not up in this class off same weight.
Wales: Not in this class first up for mine but Williams yard have held onto him for a reason. Needs further.
Comments: Two runner stick out for me here. In Cahoots should improve again today and looks a big price on the last two runs.. but does he have that extra will to win? It Is Written is the big priced runner today. Finished off nicely 2.5L behind Lankan Rupee first up considering he was about 5 lengths off them at the turn. Price is crazy overs and best value of the day.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 5, 10, 13
Strategy: It Is Written E/W
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