Welcome to The Profits form guide for Caulfield on 16 August 2014. What an exciting card! I will be on track to watch it as it happens and to give you any key updates from the yards. I will also be heading to the back stalls to check the horses out before they come out as I like to see how they settle in and how they look before they get to the yard to confirm my plays for the day. Not a great deal of value on the cards in my form today so no point LOOKING for value when I can’t honestly give you the right runner at the right price with a genuine chance to win. Yes, we are going shorties today with favs, but you can only bet to what the form and prices tell you! Very keen Charmed Harmony today. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Melbourne Best Bet
Caulfield Race 4 Charmed Harmony
I’ve been bullish on this horse the past month and there is generally a reason why, it is a star. Jessy Belle, The Cleaner and Under The Louvre have all been in the same basket recently and Charmed Harmony is up the very top with Under The Louvre for mine. I was very keen last week but I have to admit the 1400m instead of 1200m and the weight today makes me even more confident. The track should be playing to those in the front half for the first half of the day at very least and Charmed Harmony can either stack them up and run away from them or simply set a fast tempo and beat them all home through breaking them. This is a very good horse and as long as the course is a dead 4 or worse, we will be maximum betting here anything down to $2.50. $4 available with Ladbrokes/Bookmaker/Betstar as a promo is way over our odds of modeling and even then I think the horse is still better than the models suggest.
Melbourne Next Bet
Caulfield Race 9 Gregers
Similar to Tiger Tees last week at Flemington, Gregers is a horse with huge ability stepping out in a race that she should simply win at 90% fitness. Weights and maps to win. Form suggests she has at least a length on the pack and the price today is still considered value.
Other bets
Caulfield Race 5 Moment of Change
Class WFA-G1 winner, this is a big step back in class today and yes, he is certainly handing them a lot of weight on the scales, but he maps to have every chance today either taking the lead or as expected, taking a sit just off the leaders. The price is the main reason to play today.
Caulfield Race 8 Puissance De Lune
Big fan of PDL, you all know it. They have been patient with him since the Cox Plate injury and have got him back into fitness after recovering. They have given him the required trials and he looks ready to step out and win a race. The price offered is simply wrong on ratings even if he only returns at 90% as the main threats won’t be 100% either. Good money back special for 2nd if within 1L of winner as well at Sportingbet is another incentive to have a bet here.
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 7, 8
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 6
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 6, 8
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 11
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1
Lady Melksham: Only battled to the line last start. Can’t have on last few runs here today.
Atlantis Dream: Good run last start. Run well again today. Be very far back in run.
Oriental Ruby: Shown nothing all prep.
Acapela: Big chance today based on last start run. Hopefully push forward from the barrier and can test the two favs. Big chance.
Spirit Of Heaven: Just got home to take the cash last start at Sandown. Up in class again today but 51kg makes it possible to see another win. never won on dead the only issue stepping up to 1600m. Will be far back from the barrier.
To Be Honest: Up in class today but 52kg again. Very good run 2nd last start and also run before.. finds ways to lose. Better suited by dryer track today and that is key. Maps perfectly to get the run of the race.
Evie Rose: Has the ability and last start was a step in the right direction but she really should have won with the time set out front. 52kg today… but can’t trust her to win.
Spirited Will: Not good enough this prep.
Emmooki’s Star: Won ok last start in MUCH easier company. Down 8kg today gets her in well enough but these all look a little classier than her… still 52kg isn’t something to laugh at here either.
Noble Twostep: I like her as a horse but in reality she isn’t a city horse, she is a good country horse and that is it. Not here for me.
Comments: I couldn’t give you a tip here to BACK anything, but I am very keen on laying Atlantis Dream for 1.5 units and Spirit of Heaven for 1 unit. All my info suggests front runners will be better suited today and if backmarkers to get their chance Acapela rates to go close to beating them both home.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: LAY Atlantis Dream 1.5 Units and Spirit of Heaven 1 Unit.
Caulfield Race 2
Bagman: Blistering final sectionals to win with the 60kg last start at MV. Harder here but big chance.
Kindergarden Kid: Showed nothing first up and don’t expect much more today but Oliver on is interesting.
Unchain my Heart: Looking for further than last start and looking for further than this today. Not the best 2nd up record either and never placed at track. Here for the run I believe.
Voila Ici: Just ignore last two runs and rate on three and four back runs which would see him going close. Is better than his previous runs suggest. Overs.
De Fine Lago: Very disappointing both runs this prep. Can’t have him but wouldn’t be surprised if finally back to best today.
Lord Durante: Bit of a surprise improvement last start to get the win at Caulfield but he was well backed. Led start to finish but won’t have the race to himself today with Voila Ici in this. Still a top chance.
Darlimurla Star: Won’t win off runs this prep even at weights. Place chance at best.
Regaliti: Can’t see the improvement even so well weighted.
Molon Lave: Can’t place in Bm-64 last start.
Comments: Bagman has the best recent form here from I won’t want to be anywhere near him off the 60kg here from the back today. Voila Ici a big price today and Lord Durante every chance to win again.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Lord Durante on top. Voila Ici smaller bet.
Caulfield Race 3
Lord of Brazil: A lot of hype. Scratched last start and has nearly had a month between runs and was well backed last start (wouldn’t have won). Weighted ok today… barrier seems to be the key, able to sit slightly further forward today. Should run well today.
Eigelstein: I thought his efforts last start behind The Cleaner were ok. Could run well enough to place here.
Under The Eiffel: Been backed a little in the early markets from huge price.. 62kg down to 55.5kg and up to 1600m today. Small spec at best.
Fulgur: Too far back last start at MV agianst The Cleaner. Surely they push further forward today and with 55kg looks suited for mine. Big chance.
Good Value: First two runs this prep not good enough form to be finding the extra improvement to win here it seems. Could place.
Loot ‘N’ Run: Maps to clearly lead. Last start he led was 0.1L 2nd. Previous runs from out front all went close as well. 54.5kg and maps to have the race run to suit. Goes very close on a dead track.
Morant: Back to 1600m and will be better suited today…. but much harder class of race for mine.
Felidea: Good run last start at sandown but found a few too good. Can improve again today and place.
Digitalism: Very good win last start at Moonee Valley. Down 6kg today as well.. weighted to go very close.
Royal Island: Last two runs VERy poor. Hard to rate even off 51kg.
Comments: Three stand-outs here for me. Loot ‘N’ Run should have the run of the race out front and have full control. Will trade low in running and will be very hard to get past and looks value on the E/W. Fulgur was brave last start and should be going close again today if gets further forward run. Digitalism is the imrpover who ran very well last start at MV to win and down 6kg today.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Digitalism medium sized bet. Smaller bet Loot ‘n’ Run.
Caulfield Race 4
Kitten On The Run: Only won 1 from 4 first up and top weight with a 3kg claim back to 58.5kg. Shown best over further last prep but does handle the distance. Barrier hurts.
Another Prelate: Showed nothing the last two preps and couldn’t have at the weights.
Rugged Cross: Ran well but just missed last start at course over 1800m. Back to 1400m a huge concern for me but can handle the distance. Never missed a place in 3 tries at track… but has to improve to win here.
Lucky’ImBareFoot: Not going well enough this prep at this weight on last two starts to win here for mine.
Alpha Proxima: Only going fair this prep based on last few runs. Has to find at least two lengths.
Shadowfax: Not won since 2011 and showing nothing.
Red Corner: Good start to finish win last start at Sandown just holding on. Big step up today and hard to see the improvement at the weights.
Simmering: Decent trial and proved to be a good type two preps back in the north but showed nothing last prep. Probably needs further.
Are There Any: Good horse who measured up in similar last prep. Showed best on Good ground but did win well on Dead also over similar distance. Likes the track.
Al Aneed: Shown nothing all prep. Newitt back on today is interesting though… best seen on dead track.
Infinite Energy: Only fair win last start. This is much harder.
Charmed Harmony: Just ignore he went around last start when he jarred up and didn’t handle the good track. Also did a fair bit early to get the position. Down in class and finds himself in at the bottom of the weights off 52.5kg. Maps to lead and maps to win. Best of the day stuff!
Praesentia: Two runs this prep poor on slow.. but has placed all runs on heavy so should handle slow.
Averau: Needs further on form but first up course distance last prep run was nice for 4th. Harder today.
Comments: Can get $4 on Charmed Harmony with Ladbrokes, Bookmaker and Betstars Mobile Site. Way over correct odds. Wins.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Charmed Harmony to win.
Caulfield Race 5
Moment of Change: Looked very good in lead up to this prep and iw a multiple WFA-G1 winner. First up in Listed grade does get the 62kg but from what i’ve seen and heard i’m quite keen to back him in here against these unproven horses.
Pillar of Creation: Continues to run well this prep. Good honest horse but probably finds one or two too good today.
Thiamandi: Peak run last start at course and distance when blew them away. Didn’t beat too much though compared to what you see here today. Has the ability.
Club Command: Decent horse at his best but based on last prep won’t measure up against these first up and looks unders. Nolen goes to stables best.
Desert Jeuney: Needs further.
Electric Fusion: Needs further.
Hard Stride: Continues to find one too good and should occur again. Williams onboard is a positive.
Jemerica: Good start to finish win last start. Step up in class here from 3Yo to this. Not good enough for mine.
Comments: Keen to be on Moment of Change here who is 4 wins from 4 starts at track.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Moment of Change to win
Caulfield Race 6
London Lolly: Very good horse and proved it last prep in the strong 2YO-LR win at MV and then 2YO-G3 win at Morphetville. Big chance.
Sunset Rock: 2.3L win over Go Indy Go last start in 2F-LR race from start to finish in decent time can’t be discounted. Have to respect.
Royal Snitzel: Been SMASHED from $5s into $2.60. Biggest go I’ve seen in a fair while. Interestingly unlike Eximus last week, this has been all before the day. Has to have improved significantly again to justify the quote. This yard is rarely wrong with these moves though.
Down The Hatch: Good return last start at MV but has to find lengths today.
Empress O’Reilly: Good win last prep first up.. bombed start at MV last start but still ran well. Has the ability.
All Sewn Up: Decent horse but never made this grade and happy to avoid.
Novel Dancer: Two runs and two impressive wins by 6 and 3.8 lengths. Barrier hurts a lot today but should run well.
Top Dolly: I was really impressed with her first run over 1000m behind Oakleigh Girl down the straight. Then lame next start and never on the track run after that. Much easier race today and if she returns at her best she will be chasing them down.
Lexgetreddy: Hard to rate here on first up run. Didn’t show me enough last prep either.
Kalabek: Good 1000m win first up last prep then galloped on next start. Looks a good horse.
Tycoon Peri: Very average time win in maiden. Not sure measures up to these.
Sabatini: Can’t fault the win last start at Bendigo but this is MUCH harder. Not for me.
Comments: I couldn’t play here with so many unknowns.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 7, 8
Strategy: London Lolly E/W. Smaller bet Top Dolly.
Caulfield Race 7
Zululand: Very good horse. 2Yo-G2 winner at Flemington and then a good 2nd to Go Indy Go at Randwick. Probably looking for further than this though on form.
Boomwaa: Ran well enough last start at MV and will appreciate extra distance today. Have to see another run before I give him another chance in this grade.
Moonlight Hussler: Won well first up last prep but times were only fair and nothing impressive. Barrier hurts big time really.
Cornrow: On peak runs last prep he can run well today but barrier makes it awkward to get a good enough spot.
Jabali: Best horse in this race and has been well backed. Based on 2nd to Rubick and Earthquake at course and distances, you have to give him a huge chance. Best form has been on Good though is a concern. Oliver riding always a positive and barrier 2 also.
Nordic Empire: Won well first up at MV but the time didn’t really impress me. He looks a good type and has the fitness edge on Jabali and barrier 1 but does he get shuffled too far back?
I Am The General: Better than showed last start. Can improve today.
Stingray: Ran on well last start at MV and up in distance will increase his chances to improve again. Does have to find lengths.
Reigning Meteor: Not in this class on last prep form.
Just For Starters: Ran ok last start. Has to find much more here. Don’t write-off for last start as probably sits closer today.
Get The Nod: Much harder today, hard to tell if he is any good on form.
Honest Lee: Heavy win maiden. Happy to avoid.
Comments: Couldn’t bet here with too many form lines. Jabali if any.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 6
Strategy: Jabali to win.
Caulfield Race 8
Foreteller: Yard things he is going very well. First up record is only fair but did win two preps back being PDL by 0.1L over 1600m. Last prep though 4th by 3.8L over 1400m. Key is dead track today.
Puissance De Lune: Welcome back champ! Rates to win if returns at best. Yard has been very soft on getting him back and given him every chance to recover. Had more than enough trial runs to get up to best and should be ready to fly. Big chance and odds appeal.
Brambles: Couldn’t have on all three runs this prep.
Kincaple: Shown best at further distances although WFA-G2 7th 1.8L last prep wans’t bad. Very rare a WA runner, especially at 9 comes over here first up and wins. Happy to avoid at this distance.
Lidari: Last prep only win was in a SWP-G2 which is much easier than this. Does have a strong first up record but you have to be very concerned with last prep. The one win also was due to slow tempo it seems? Barrier 10 not ideal either.
Zamorar: Continues to run very strong races. Up 4kg today hurts but will be there at the finish and suited by distance. Track condition suits also.
Star Rolling: Very good runs last prep between 1400-1800m with best run at 1800m when just beaten 0.4L by Fiorente when led all the way. Maps to lead and every chance today. Massive issue is 3 runs first up for 0 places. Never won track either.
Spillway: Finished last prep with an impressive Group 3 win, but what did the horse beat? Looking for much further.
Gig: Ran well enough last start, much harder here today and happy to avoid even at the 1400m. Should be a good place price.
Let’s Make ADeal: Wasn’t the same horse last prep. Never own at track or distance and last win was in a R-84. No thanks.
Comments: All signs point to Puissance De Lune here. Some good offers around for money back 2nd within 1L also.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 6, 8
Strategy: Back Puissance De Lune.
Caulfield Race 9
Bonaria: Never won first up previously and best runs have been over slightly further, although she is still a good sprinter. Goes well at track and with claim back to 59kg does look fine in this class today from barrier 3. Class has to be respected.
Gregers: The one to beat. If returns anywhere near last prep form, any of those runs, she wins. 58kg looks very fair today and has a good first up record. 0.5L 4th in WFA-G1 and 2.5L 4th in Group 1 is huge form in this grade of race. Big price.
You’re So Good: Was decent last prep but couldn’t get a win. Ditto previous prep either. Best run was probably first up over the 1100m but 2nd up was as good. Never placed at track a concern and best shown on Good.
Five All: Very good horse who was perfectly placed last prep. Won four of eight runs and never missed a place. 52.5kg today you have to think she runs well but the trip is probably a little too short to peak first up. Have to respect.
Danestroem: Won first three runs of last prep and then found a few too good in higher grade. Weighted nicely today from barrier 2 and maps well.
Divine City: Good horse up in Queensland but hard to see her measuring up down here in this class today first up. Wants slightly further.
Bloomingdale Miss: Win second up was nothing special at all. Was handed the win. No thanks.
Members Joy: Decent horse but not sure she is this level of runner. Need to see a few runs and best over further.
Flash of Doubt: Not here or in this class based on last start run at Sandown. Has to improve again.
Snippetee Bee: Tassy runner who does have some decent wins onr ecord but can’t see the form stacking up here.
Mezeray Miss: Ran well enough first up and isn’t a slow tracker. Big improvement to come 2nd up. Chance at odds.
Espirit’s Choice: Not in this class for mine. Could place though.
Comments: Race with only four real contenders on my ratings and Gregers rates to be at least a length ahead of all of them. Mezeray Miss the key danger for mine and is a big chance today.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 11
Strategy: Big bet Gregers. Smaller bet Mezeray Miss
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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