Welcome to The Profits form guide for Caulfield on Wednesday 15 October 2014. With the Thousand Guineas being moved, the card is a little lackluster if you ask me.. but that doesn’t stop a few good runners popping their heads up in the right races at the right prices. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Melbourne Best Bet
Caulfield Race 5 Eloping
Keep it simple. This horse is good enough to be racing in open group company. Ran 3rd to Angelic Light and Lankan Rupee two back at Moonee Valley and they gapped the rest of them. Last start had EVERY right to not finish off the race so strongly but just kept finding. Maps to get a very easy lead and is the best price of the day.
Melbourne Next Best
Caulfield Race 1 Longeron
Maps very well. Weighted nicely back in class. Continues to improve this prep and this looks very winable. Most importantly, our rated price is significantly shorter than what is being offered here. Backing the horse in the place market and also
*Please note BetEasy are giving you a matched Bonus Bet up to $50 to place on the Blue Sapphire for any bet you place on Race 1!*
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1
Looking to start the day with a bang, there is a standout runner in this race today and the price is juicy IMO.
Longeron has been improving all prep and won very easy here last start at course and distance. Expecting a leader bias as per Saturday and he maps to lead. The run two back in Open Class was very good for 5th behind Brambles who would be going close in the Caulfield Cup with a run. Back in class again today and weight looks suitable.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Back Longeron 3 units to place 2 units to win
Caulfield Race 4
I won’t be playing here on what i’ve seen straight away, but keep a close eye on the market surrounding Aggregator. If the money starts to come for him, I would have a bit of confidence backing him in at this distance at this class at this track.
Caulfield Race 5
Very keen to be playing in this race today and have taken the early odds.
Eloping was an absolute beast last start at Moonee Valley when winning with ease by 1.5L in 3F-GP3 class. Before that ran Angelic Light and Lankan Rupee to 2.3L which included blundering at the start. 55kg makes her very well weighted today and the price on offer right down to $2 looks backable. Mapped to get an easy lead.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Eloping to win
Caulfield Race 6
A wide-open race and I think there are a few stand-outs.
In Cahoots form is rock-solid with the strong 2nd behind Target In Sight last start. Barrier suits and only track bias will stop him from finishing strongly and close to winning.
Mecir goes well first up with 3 from 4 first up wins. Last win was in Group 3 class.
Admantium is a horse I have a lot of time for. I took a bit of the $51 on offer in early markets but that is long gone. Anything over $32 is considered value on a horse who should be pushing forward today and goes best 2nd up.
Eclair Big Bang up in open class. Easy kill first up but this is much harder.
Fast N Rocking will be a long way back and I’m taking the horse on based on how the track should be playing and the speed in race.
Lion of Belfort is in the same class as Fast N Rocking. The first up run was stong enough but last start was poor.
About Square has been very well backed in early markets and is the one to watch.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Bet the value runners. In Cahoots at around $4.5 if drifts, Admantium $32+.
Caulfield Race 7
This race is as simple as they come.
It’s a open book outside of Suavito who you just simply cannot trust after doing your cash last start. Also poorly weighted against a few others here>
Spirit of Heaven looks the best weighted on last start run and from barrier 3 if ridden further forward, is the one to beat.
Comments: Only back Suavito in-play if having a bet.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Spirit of Heaven E/W.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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