Welcome to The Profits form guide for Caulfield Cup Day 2014 on 18 October 2014. Last year we had the pleasure of picking the winner Fawkner on top and while this year we haven’t gone with an outsider, we have been talking our top pick up since her very first run this prep and didn’t jump off last start when she won at a top price of $10s pre-race. Our Best Bet today is a horse you will have never heard of, two runs into its prep, the first up win was very very impressive on replay and i’m super keen to be on here today. Lots of value around and Under The Louvre features again while i’m keen on the value place plays and a sneaky quinella on them also in race 8. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Melbourne Best Bet
Caulfield Race 7 Noble Protector
I’m very keen on this international runner today first up in Aus. Ignore last start when had excuses and rate on the first up run when won held to the line by 5 lengths. Blocked for runs in the straight, finally got out and blew the field away. There was a further 6 lengths back to 3rd from the 2nd placed runner as well. It was an amazing run and a pleasure to watch on replay. Sat just behind the leader that day and from the barrier here, you can expect a similar run. Most importantly, Noble Protector has that turn of foot required to win in Australian racing and especially at Caulfield.
Melbourne Next Bet
Caulfield Race 10 Anatina
Just got done last start by a better horse on the day due to how the race was run. Barrier today means absolutely no excuses and it will take a super horse to run over Anatina. Most importantly, correct price being bet to be able to back her.
Melbourne Best Value
Caulfield Race 5 Under The Louvre
Won as our best value pick last time the horse went around and once again the prices being bet are complete overs. Twitter followers were advised to launch into the $13s yesterday. $10.50/$3.3 still available as writing this and I honestly don’t think they will plunge this horse, they never do and this is a very competitive field with quite a few chances.. we simply are getting value once again. Rated closer to a $7 chance.
Melbourne Next Best Value
Caulfield Race 8 Facile Tigre & Whitlam to place
These two runners are the major value in this race and they both map to come from off the speed in what looks to be a overly hot tempo affair. At the current odds of $11 and $9.5 to place best around, we are taking some very odds on the fact that just one of these runners place. The dream result obviously is both placing.
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 5, 7, 9, 12
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 7, 8, 10, 11
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 6, 7, 14, 15
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 4, 5, 11
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Promotions
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TAB
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Sportingbet
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Centrebet
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Races
Caulfield Race 1
Devon Princess: Absolute nutcase of a horse. Does a lot wrong… but did get a 4L win in 2YO class last prep. Best runs shown on wetter surfaces. Have to respect the class.
Azkadellia: NZ Maiden winner then over to Wang for a decent win also on dryer track. May jump slowly an issue.
Berimbau: Gone back both runs this prep. Barrier 5 could push further forward today. Not been close to a win this prep is issue.
Sea Spray: Maiden win was decent enough first up and then ran well enough 2nd up at MV. Has to improve again.
Bella Capri: Ran home well at Bendigo to land a decent maiden. Big step up here.
Shacarde: Maiden winner in average time at Sale. Not sure she is the best here.
I’m A Flying Star: Nothing after the maiden win. Wants it wetter.
Sitkamose: Unlucky first up and then got the win fair and square 2nd up. Up in distance suits.. can run well.
Tender: Every chance last start. Just poor. Hard to have here without improvement. Best runs on wet.
Kansas Sunflower: Couldn’t win a maiden in either of her runs but both were decent runs. Has to find a lot to win this.
Comments: Devon Princess is the best horse in this race, but not sure I could back outside of the place here in this.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Devon Princess to place.
Caulfield Race 2
Tudor: Ran home well enough behind Eloping during the week… this is a fast backup! Never placed on Good.. best seen on dead.
Stratum Star: Very good win last start at Flemington showing large improvement. Has to improve again at weights. Barrier not ideal.
Liberation: Every right to fall out of it last start and just ignore he went around. Base off three back run which is quality enough to be winning this. Prefer a bit of rain… looks massive overs on class. Yes, the horse will try throw the race away, we know it.
Thief of Hearts: 3YO winner first up and then last start from out front couldn’t go the fast 1400m. Hard to see from barrier today.
Klammer: Dead last in harder company last start. Two back run was fair but fell out of it sharply. Gonna be a furious tempo it seems today!
Careless: 1.3L 5th to Almalad last start in 2Y-GP1 class. Two runs this prep haven’t been of that quality.. but can run a strong tempo.
Petrology: Had every chance all three runs this prep and shown nothing. Pass.
Manhattan Avenue: Impressed last start when just missed. Much better weighted today and rates very well from barrier 2. Every chance with the tempo.
Staviva: Better weighted today and money has come for him, but I though Manhattan Avenue’s last start run had alot more merit.
Armada: Strong enough last start at Caulfield and can improve onwards today. One to watch from barrier.
Ronn’s Moss: Maiden winner over in Adelaide. Not sure the times are sound enough.
White Hunter: Every chance last start at Caulfield and didn’t measure up in this grade.
Comments: Not overly keen to invest here but I don’t want to be anywhere near the leaders. I think they will be running this FAR too fast for their own good and will be out on their feet by the 200m. Watch Liberation clean a few up. Could entertain Careless at the price.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Manhattan Avenue E/W (sneaky rails run to win).
Caulfield Race 3
Veuvelicious: Showed her best on slow tracks at 2YO. Hasn’t exactly measured up at 3YO but up to 2000m could do the trick?
Golconda: Every chance to show something both runs this prep… won 3L 1000m in first prep.. up to 2000m? What?
Maastricht: Very good run 2nd to Fontein Ruby last start. Will improve onwards from that run. About right price in market.
Lady Macan: The one to watch. Hampton Court form is good form and ran within 3.5L which back in this grade could measure up. Did win at 2YO in decent class.
Savage Coup: Won a maiden in okay fashion but was on slow. Just missed her maiden on good. Can run okay but has to find much more here.
Little Hottie: Decent maiden win and then didn’t run too badly last start at Flemington. Could position more forward today from barrier 3 to give more chance.
Set Square: Finally got the win in maiden company last start. Has to improve today though on that run to measure up to all these.
Imperial Lass: Maiden only winner. Last two runs not good enough to place here. Has to find lengths.
Hipster Girl: Ran home very well from the back when should have been further forward last start at Flemington in similar company. Maps to win this. Looks some value.
Tears of Joy: Every chance in maidens but hasn’t been able to go close. Not for mine.
Sistine Star: Hasn’t been able to go remotely close in her maidens. No thanks.
Comments: Hipster Girl looks the value. Hard to go past Maastricht to start the odds on punters off to a good start to the day
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Maastricht
Caulfield Race 4
Kumaon: Had every chance with the run last start to beat them but couldn’t manage a place. I think he had the best run he could get and the blinkers did help. Pushing forward today from the positive barrier would do the trick, but not advised just yet. A top hope for sure.
Merion: Bred to stay, but still questions that have to be answered. Too far back last start at Caulfield in the Guineas and had a lot of excuses to finish 3.5L off the win. Barrier today doesn’t make it easy but with not the hardest tempo on paper you would expect them to jump him and try and sit more positive today. The one to beat.
Bachman: Been well backed in and have to respect. 2L off Hampton Court last start and then two back was 3.8L off Shooting to Win. If distance suits runs well.
Magicool: Strong win last start at Flemington with a sit just off them. Barrier 7 maps well again today and will have his chance if good enough.
Firehouse Rock: Just ignore last start at Flemington and rate on two back. Last start got much further back than expected and in poor part of track. Today from Barrier 2 will sit just off the speed. Respect.
War Point: Absolute money munching non-winner. 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd last four runs and last two have had every chance and gone close but no will to get there. Maps poorly from wide barrier and need to work to get a spot with luck.
Light Up Manhattan: Showed good signs at 2 but hasn’t really gone on with it as much as expected. Have to find lengths.
Hawking: Beyond awful last start when green and just did a lot wrong. Have to forgive and rate on previous run. Enjoys the track but may just be outclassed. The obvious speed in the race.
Justaway: Showed nothing last start. Will be out the back again. Repeat of two back can run well.
Cuban Fighter: Couldn’t win a maiden last two starts.
Home Run Hero: Couldn’t win 3Y-Maidens the last two starts.
Fontein Ruby: Ran a brave race last start and got the money at Flemington from out the front. Barrier 13 hurts, but there isn’t much mapped speed so she should get her chance to go forward again and sit outside the leader. Have to respect.
Crafty: Hit the line very solidly last start at Flemington but showed nothing run before at Caulfield. Looks the type who is suited by a longer straight and will be coming late from the back.. but probably too late.
Comments: Finding it very hard to go past Merion here and you are getting great e/w odds.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Merion E/W
Caulfield Race 5
River Lad: Ridden upside down last start down the Flemington straight and finished off nicely enough even though he was never a chance. Up in weight here back in class, barrier is the killer factor.
Smokin’ Joey: Group 1 winner last prep over 1200m at Morphetville on a wet surface. Showed nothing first up so hard to see the improvement, but two preps back did win 2nd up. Has won twice before at the track and handy barrier today.
Manawanui: A bit of a surprise winner first up and back to his best. Very good win. Can run well again here today but would want more of a sting out of the ground that gets today.
Flamberge: Shown nothing last two starts which makes you question first up win. Up to 1400m a worry.
Lucky Hussler: Every chance last start at Flemington and beaten fairly. Can well enough two back at track but barrier today hurts.
Leebaz: Won 3 from 5 last prep and ran close 2nds to Weary and Streama which is solid enough form. 1400m isn’t exactly his best distance though… but barrier 3, he will be leading them all the way and may not be run down.
Limes: Just ignore the first up run of this talented bloke. Goes well enough 2nd up and has placed two from two at the track in the past. Placed 11 from 15 at this distance also. Needs a good track and gets it today. Maps well from barrier and place price looks backable.
Generalife: No luck last start in WFA-G2 company over 1200m. Up to 1400m 2nd up should suit and does go well 2nd up. Tricky barrier today but weighted nicely and should improve.
Under The Louvre: Won 2 and lost 3 by 0.5L or less of last 5. Classy runner who is being ridden closer to the speed (midfield seems to be the best spot). Huge value on offer today.
Admire Inazuma: Hard to fault this Japnese runner who won 3 from 4 last prep with best wins at this distance. Loves a firm surface and from barrier 2 has every chance today.
Mutural Trust: Hasn’t won since 2011 but last prep was promising. Has won first up previously but never placed at 1400m… but runs have all been okay. Can run well.
Final Crescendo: Ran well enough first up for 3rd but was well beaten. Have to improve onwards again but right form lines.
Ryker: Breathing issues last start at Flemington.. but not sure the first up form has been proven to be all that sound with Fast N Rocking losing since.
Raizan: Another Japanese runner.. but this one has only been competing in 3YO races and not winning. Better over further.
Comments: Leebaz, Generalife, Under The Louvre and Admire Inazuma are the standouts to win while Limes is a huge price to place here ($13). Very open race so you really do have to play the value.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Under The Louvre E/W.
Caulfield Race 6
Diamond Drille: Ignore first up run when pulled up with Thumps post-race. Won 2 from 3 on Good track and this is a step back in class from her best. Beat Catkins last prep and is hard to oppose. Huge price for a FM-Gp1 winner.
May’s Dream: Ran quite well first up over 1400m but never looked like winning. Caulfield doesn’t seem to be her best track though IMO. Looking for further than this.
Sweet Idea: Continues to run well and ran 2nd and 4th in WFA-G1 and Group 1 company last two runs. Was passed with ease both runs though.. back in class helps.
Catkins: Fast tempo last start at Rosehill but was zoomed past by Arabian Gold who really wasn’t suited by the distance but got the run of the race. Much harder today and will be setting a fast tempo with the Sweet Idea.
Enquare: Two runs this prep have been solid but never looked the winner. Back to Caulfield helps and up in distance from 2 back run.
Girl Guide: Hayes is keen on her again today. 1400m the test really today and has to improve again. Had every chance last start IMO.
Politeness: Blocked for runs last start and finished well but just too far back. Not her best track, but she is flying right now and looking for luck. Sit further forward from barrier 4.
Girl In Flight: Every chance first up andw as a tad disappointing if i’m honest. Staying at 1400m not ideal and i’d need to see another run.
Minnie Downs: Showed nothing first up. Hard to see the sudden improvement as second up wasn’t much better.
Chiquada: Big run two back but then found out in this company last start. Not good enough.
Comments: The pace is going to be on here with Catkins, Sweet Idea and Girl Guide all pushing forward. Makes me want to be on those back in the run a little further.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Politeness to win. Smaller bet Diamond Drille.
Caulfield Race 7
Contributer: Measured up over in the UK winning a WFA-LR and last start winnign in listed class. This is his distance and has won 4 from 6 on a Good track. Won 3 from 4 first up and looks well in here.
Honorius: Back to 1600m last start off 52.5kg showed his best run all prep from the back of the field. Poor barrier today so probably goes back again. Prefers a bit of sting out of the ground.
Kingdoms: Didn’t find the 2400m. Back to 2000m today and if runs to two back run can threaten to go close. Best runs seen with sting out.
Jacquinot Bay: Horrible run last start in the Benella Cup. No excuses. Have to find MUCH more today.
Vilanova: Waller yard keen on his chances here at the weights with Newitt on. Will be very far back in running and hitting line hard.
Commanding Time: Giving weight to Jac Bay today but was a good winner last start in the Benella Cup. Have to improve onwards again here.
Signoff: Every chance last start and just not good enough in Group 2. Back to 2000m a huge concern for me and boss keeps the ride. Maps well enough.
Midsummer Music: Showed absolutely nothing first up over the 1500m. Much better second up and over further.
Noble Protector: Peaked first up this prep over in the UK with a 5L win over 2400m on a Good surface in a strong time off 58kg. Stronger class but down to 54kg.. have to respect from barrier as will take a sit just off the leaders. Top chance on video replays i’ve seen. Stunning win really… was 5L to 2nd then 6L after that to 3rd!
Pinstripe Lane: Getting up in the distances but probably needs the run again and even wanting further than this.
Comments: Sticking with the imports in this race at the weights.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 5, 7, 9, 12
Strategy: Noble Protector to win. Saver Contributer
Caulfield Race 8
Bel Sprinter: Hard to ignore the trial of Bel Sprinter this time in.. but i’ve been sucked into the horse every run almost since the Group 1 win by 3 lengths. No excuses today with this track condition.
Driefontein: Last win was in FM-GP1 company on a dead track from start to finish at Morphetville beating the handy Platelet. Runs since that were all solid but no wins or close. Spell and back first run in and never placed a place first up. Barrier 13 and should be pushing forward today.
Unpretentious: Missed the start and that was his race run last start in WFA-G1 when 5th by 1.5L to Buffering/Angelic Light. It’s hard to fault the run even though he ran last. Never placed on a dead track from 4 runs and it was dead last start. Barrier 3 and if they jump him to sit a little closer, can run a eye-catcher.
Miracles of Life: She had a really solid prep in 3YO company. Big step up here and money hasn’t really come for her. New jockey onboard. Best runs have been on good tracks in past but best last prep was in slow. Likes this distance and track obviously.
Big Money: Wonm 7 from 11 and never missed a place. Won Group 3 last prep. Sits closer to the back than midfield and loves any track condition. Best runs have been off strong tempos and had that all last prep… not sure that eventuates today?
Pago Rock: Very poor run last start and two previous no better. Hayes says give him one more chance, I can’t.
Shamal Wind: Too far back last start at course and distance and never a winning chance. Has a short sharp sprint and needs to be ridden closer to speed. Have to respect (Surely wins the run we aren’t on?)
I’m All The Talk: This is our front-running leader. 2L 2nd to Terravista two back and then ran That’s A Good Idea to 0.8L going around with 61kg. Back to 54.5kg today and rates very well. Back to lay chance.
Facile Tigre: Not the same horse we knew from 2011 when he last won.. still ran well last prep.. but can he come here and goes bang first up? Does like a good track. Probably value at weights and has won once placed three times from four runs at track. Meets Big Money 4.5kg better at weights from last prep. Bossy only query.
Whitlam: Beat quite a few good horses first up at Morphetville and upset a few form lines. Down 1kg today and comes into this really well at weights. Have to respect from barrier.
Phelan Ready: Finally he got a win. Congrats to owners… not here.
Thermal Current: The one to watch going around. Measured up at 3YO grade. Big watch up in this class at weights. Happy to watch him run around today.
Comments: Going very wide here with the two horses who are weighted to win.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 7, 8, 10, 11
Strategy: E/W bets on Facile Tigre and Whitlam. A small bet on the Quinella also.
Caulfield Race 9
#1. Admire Rakti
Top weight. Hasn’t won a race since Feb 2013. Did beat home Bande two runs back as well. Best runs have been on Good tracks and has been competing in Group company the last 11 runs. Only win of those was 3400m Group 3. Sits midfield to a little further back in runs. Looks a true tough staying type but is wanting the 3200m of the Melb Cup it seems.
Pros: Consistent. Run top 4 in four of last 6 runs. Can carry weight. Will appreciate a strong tempo.
Cons: Looking for further based on last prep targets.
#3. Green Moon
Don’t dismiss this old warhorse. Ran home very well in the Makybe Diva when just 2.9L off Dissident and Fawkner. Didn’t get tested last start in the Turnbull. The key to this bloke is they push this guy forward when they feel he can win a race and this is such a race. Barrier 6 and Chad Schofield, he will be making sure the Internationals don’t get away with any cheap sectionals and he is going to appreciate the 57kg today, the lowest weight has has seen in more than 10 runs.
Pros: Barrier. Track condition. Mapping. Class
Cons: 6 runs at track for 1 placing.
#4. Sea Moon
Showed enough last start to suggest he has returned with enough fitness to be competitive. Won 4 from 7 at this distance in the past and last prep won at this track and distance in the Herbert Power, in a much easier race. Horrible barrier draw though with 21 and maps very far back in the run. You may spot him stopping for a chicko roll from the Train Station with how wide he probably will be coming into the straight. Not sure he is good enough on what we have seen since coming over here to win this.
Pros: Good record at course and distance and track condition.
Cons: All runs in Australia don’t rate high enough to win this. Maps to sit very far back.
#6. The Offer
Clear best runs on record have been on rain affected tracks or further distances. Hasn’t placed in three runs this prep and while all the runs have been ‘okay’, I haven’t been impressed at all. Up to 2400m a positive but good track expected which for mine destroys his chances. Barrier 19 also doesn’t help the cause either. Interesting to look back to last prep and actually decide how classy the runners were that the horse had to beat.
Pros: up to 2400m today.
Cons: Barrier 19. Dry track.
#7. Seismos
Last start Group 3 winner at Newbury in the UK over Willing Foe + Red Cad. Group 1 winner in Germany and best runs have clearly been on Good or Dead tracks which we will get. Positions close to the speed and isn’t put off rolling forward to lead it up either. Last two big wins have seen the horse actually make a move as the tempo slowed to get to the front. Handles a turn extremely well which is important for Caulfield and stays for days. Very under-estimated horse considering the class and mapping. Not 100% sold on barrier 1 as the ‘best’ place for the horse to be, but as long as jumps well, maps to lead or just be off the lead.
Pros: Best runs seem to come 1st up and this is his best distance range and track condition
Cons: Hasn’t won in a race of this class
#8. Hawkspur
Won three runs back at Randwick leading start to finish on a heavy track. Two back then settled midfield and boxed on well but well beaten that day. Last start in the Turnbull ridden from the back and wasn’t really impressive at all. Doesn’t win or even place out of turn and has just 1 win to name in past 24 months which was the 1600m heavy win. Expect them to be on-pace at least today form a very positive barrier 9.
Pros: Barrier 9. Forward position. Damien Oliver riding.
Cons: Good track surface (hasn’t placed on one in last 6 runs)
#9. Junoob
Best ridden off the pace and best runs have been on good surfaces so conditions suit today. Won last two races beating home some ‘okay’ company, but this is certainly a step up. Tough win last start will prepare him well for this, but barrier 15 makes it a incredibly tough task to get the right run at the weights to beat all of these home.
Pros: Winning form. Track condition to suit.
Cons: Barrier. Up in class again. Melbourne Way.
#10. Moriarty
Best form has been shown on Good tracks. Goes well either way which is a positive today but doesn’t win out of turn or out of class. Run last start over again and doesn’t beat home Rising Romance again. Progressing nicely but this does look a step beyond him even from barrier 7.
Pros: Good barrier. Maps well. Good track condition.
Cons: Never measured up in similar class to this. 55kg looks a touch harsh on previous form. New jockey.
#11. Who Shot TheBarman
Won two in a row over 2000m and 2520m at Flemington. Had the race won with 200m to go last start over similar distance, so the shorter straight today shouldn’t be an issue. Barrier 16 a significant disadvantage for getting a positive enough position at midfield or better. Won 5 from 7 on a Good track surface. Group 1 winner, but last two runs were against second raters.
Pros: Winning form. Won very well last start. Good track conditions expected.
Cons: Barrier. Up in class. Glen Boss riding.
#12. Dear Demi
Settled further forward last start in the Caulfield Stakes. Was in the right position and just boxed on without showing anything to impress. Much better record on dead than Good surfaces a massive issue and maps to need a lot of luck in the run. Needs to improve significantly on last start and will be praying for a bit of rain.
Pros: Can go forward or back in run from barrier. Right distance.
Cons: Tricky barrier. Need sting out of the ground to find best.
#13. Stipulate
Never won at close to this distance previously. Good enough win first up but since then hasn’t measured up in this type of company. Barrier 5 ensures he will map to have every chance, but i’m not sure that he will stay the distance or be good enough to measure up here.
Pros: Barrier. Good track condition (only won on this).
Cons: Never won at distance. Never won in this class.
#14. Lidari
All four runs this prep have been impressive. He is a horse who doesn’t win out of turn but always gives his all. Looked home in the Turnbull and fought to the line hard to hold off Brambles, but Lucia Valentina got the luck by getting a clear run to the line. Has won at this distance previously. Barrier 4 is the key today. Maps to get almost the best run of the race just off the leaders to have a shot at them late. Will look the winner at some point in the straight.
Pros: Barrier. Won at distance. Solid prep.
Cons: Hasn’t won this prep. Hasn’t run this distance in a long time.
#15. Lucia Valentina
Notched up her first career win on a Good surface last prep (also first ever placing) and the sectionals were sensational. I believe she will appreciate any extra rain between now and then though and would be preferring a dead surface. Up from 2000m to 2400m today is certainly ideal and coming in with just 53kg off what we have seen this prep, it’s obvious why she is favourite. Gets back in the runs and will hope like the last two years that there is pace on our front. Last start positioned further forward than previously from barrier 5 and with barrier 12 today (will get taken into 10) I’d be expecting her to be pushed to get a spot similar to what Fawkner has last year 3/4 way back in the pack.
Pros: Has a 500m sprint like none other in the race. Low weight.
Cons: Will be a long way back coming to the turn. Been racing on longer straights this prep.
#16. Rising Romance
Three runs in this prep without a win but last start should have got the win. This is much harder than that though. Did win the ATC Oaks last prep but I maintain Lucia Valentina was the run of the race and Rising Romance won it via mapping. Barrier 17 was a horrible draw for this mare and off 53kg, I think others are better suited today. Best runs seen with sting out of the ground.
Pros: 53kg. Up in distance.
Cons: Best runs with sting out of ground. Poor barrier.
#17. Big Memory
Low weight in the race, Big Memory won well enough at course and distance in the Hebert Power last start, but didn’t beat much at all really. Similar weight here and barrier 20, very hard to see him getting a positive position in running with ease.
Pros: Low weight.
Cons: Up in class. New jockey. Poor barrier.
#19. Brambles
Won well two back with 60kg beating Big Memory and meets much better at the weights. Last start in the Turnbull was bold boxing on for 3rd but Lidari toughed it out better. Meets Lidari worse off at the weights. Maps okay.
Pros: Won at distance previously. Weighted well. Decent barrier.
Cons: Has to improve again.
#20. Araldo
Ran 3rd last start in The Metrop but was never a chance of winning. Will be very far back here today and has never gone close in this class of race which is a big step up from the Metrop this year. Bad barrier.
Pros:
Cons: Bad barrier. Settle near rear. Not classy enough
#21. Unchain My Heart
Last win was at Flemington over 3200m. 6 starts 0 wins at track for only 1 win which was this prep when 3L 3rd in a much much much easier race. Since then hasn’t ever looked the winner.
Pros: Likes a firm track
Cons: Well outclassed in this race.
#22. Renew
Potential to lead this race but from barrier suggest sits midfield to front. Won at Newmarket two preps back at this distance but shown nothing of that quality since and off first up run very hard to have.
Pros: Barrier
Cons: 4th Emergency for a reason. Outclassed
The Key Chances
In no particular order, I have moved all of the runners into one of four categories. Just to explain what it all means, just because a runner is in the Medium Chance pile doesn’t necessary mean they aren’t a good bet. It means they need a fair bit of luck and the right circumstances.
High Chance
Lidari
Lucia Valentina
Seismos
Admire Rakti
Brambles
Medium Chance
Who Shot TheBarman
Hawkspur
The Offer
Rising Romance
Junoob
Low Chance
Green Moon
Moriarty
Sea Moon
Minimal Chance
Big Memory
Stipulate
Araldo
Renew
Unchain My Heart
Caulfield Cup 2014 Tips
Top Pick – Lucia Valentina
She didn’t map well last start in the Turnbull and still found a way to get the win with an explosive turn of foot. The speedmap is quite unclear for this race today and I have the % saying there will be a tough early sectional set which will give her every chance to win this. Needs luck to get a run at the right time and I wouldn’t be backing her before seeing if the backmarkers are making up ground at the track on the day.
Best Roughie – Seismos
$40 into $30 since the barrier draw. Seismos will either push forward to lead it up or get the perfect run just off the speed. Very tough European stayer who likes to roll into races. If he gets the right sectionals all the way around, he will be leading to the turn and packs an explosive punch on a firm surface.
Top 10
Lucia Valentina
Lidari
Seismos
Admire Rakti
Green Moon
Rising Romance
Brambles
Who ShotTheBarman
Hawkspur
Junoob
Comments: Wide open race this year outside of the fav who if she gets her run and tempo on as expected, she wins. Big ifs though!
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 6, 7, 14, 15
Strategy: Lucia Valentina to win. Smaller bet Seismos
Caulfield Race 10
Miss Steele: Every chance last start and just not good enough. Had her chance and just couldn’t finished off. Down in weight today but still up in class. Need a bit of rain.
Anatina: Looked to have the race run last start at course and distance off a hot tempo but just got passed late. Fitter for run and back in class today. Top chance clearly from barrier.
Cradle Me: Good horse who won for us last prep as a Best Bet. This is MUCH harder company she is stepping up to. Hard to trust in this level of class but has ability. Will run well.
Vain Attraction: Eye-catching win first up off a slow tempo. Huge late sectionals the key.. just flew! Up in class and poorly weighted but the times don’t lie. Seriously back in form.
Sino Eagle: Obviously shouldn’t have been running last start when passed fit at barriers. Judge on two previous runs that were solid form lines. Better over further imo.
Counted: Got a win last prep finally. Doesn’t win out of turn and not in this class.
It’s Poets Day: Two in a row but hard to see the step up again here. Not for mine.
Awasita: Had her chance last start. Average at this track on record and has to find much more. Poor barrier.
Lonhruge: Can’t see her going close here on form. .
The Messina Nymph: Big win first up this prep have to respect but didn’t beat much. barrier hurts chances.
Nicamorae: Every chance first up even though hampered concluding chances. This is a large step in class that won’t be taken to win.
Follow My Lead: Couldn’t win in BM-64 grade last few runs so hard to see at weights.
I Love It: Last prep progressed well enough in 3YO class. Has some ability… goes well first up.
Comments: Hard to see anything outside the quaddie numbers winning. Taking on Cradle Me here due to pricing it looks wrong.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 4, 5, 11
Strategy: Anatina hard to ignore. Deserves our money today. Vain Attraction the value and receives a small backing also.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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