Welcome to The Profits form for Caulfield on Saturday 4 January 2014. An interesting card is on offer and our Best Bet today one of the most confident in a fair while with a 90% rating. The price is over the correct odds and I have gone into details why I want to be on the horse in the comments section so have a read and if you agree, then let’s cheer together. I’m expecting the rail to play fairly well for front runners in the first few races and dying away from about R5 onwards. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 6 Captain Fancypantz
Next Best
Caulfield Race 1 Romancingthestone
Best Value
Caulfield Race 3 Zlatan
Country Hustle
Bairnsdale Race 4 Observer – Take anything above $1.95.
Oh Captain My Captain Double (for fun)
R6 Caulfield Captain Fancypantz into Race 7 Gold Coast Morning Captain
Flemington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 4, 5, 10, 12
Quaddie Leg Two: 4, 9, 11, 12, 13
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 7, 12, 14
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 4, 8, 9, 18
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Caulfield Race 1
Romancingthestone: Last two runs have been super impressive. Two back just didn’t get out when ran home strongly behind Lord of the Sky and this form line has held up big time. Last start unlucky again and meets Maroon Bay much better at the weights today. The one to beat.
Maroon Bay: Strong progression from not winning a maiden to winning last start. The rail played fairly that day. Barrier 10 means won’t get it as easy and very poorly weighted.
Donna Madeira: Won a 900m race well then last two starts were horrible. Hard to tell what to make of her. Not for me.
Howdah: Finished well enough for 2nd behind Prince Stratum last start and this is a weaker level of race. Can run well at weights.
Friendwithbenefits: Ran ‘ok’ last start without threatening. Had every chance.
I Got a Turbo: Broom broooom. Ran strong enough time in maiden company last start and down 0.5kg. Maps well. Could be the main threat.
Mitzi Del Bra: Fair maiden win first up at Geelong. Been off a few months and equal weight today. Has to improve.
Lavender Bay: Hard to see placing off previous runs this prep.
Antarctic Missle: First prep didn’t show enough to suggest has the tank to win today. Could sneak a place at best though?
Leicameares: Hard to see when couldn’t win her maiden.
Alysiana: Poor first up prep run in 2YO. Not sure this much improvement to be had.
Comments: Two clear standouts in this field for me.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Romancingthestone to win. Saver on I Got a Turbo
Caulfield Race 2
Flying Hostess: Finally broke through last start for a solid win off a fairly slowly run race which suited. Weighted well again today.
Aliberani: Hard to see the turn around today based on last start. No thanks.
Spirited Will: Ran on well without threatning last start. Looks a bit more speed in this and could be better suited today. A chance.
Tully Costa: Won 2 of 4 this prep both at decent odds. Way down in class today. Never placed at track an issue but is going well enough to suggest can run well. Only issue for mine is weight.
Capalbio: From the back just snuck home for the win last start. Was a pretty good run on replay. Weighted well today. Don’t dismiss.
Yuka Joy: Not going well enough this prep on recent runs and back to 1600m very strange. Hard to have.
Roxanne of Sydney: Very poor run in city class last start. Down in weight but hard to see the improvement needed.
Spellrocker: Just ignore last start when slowly away and was gone from there. Two previous runs were fairly solid wins and off 52kg she can improve today from barrier 4.
Prie Dieu: Hard to see the progression on last three runs.
Silver Coin: Won a fairly average race last start. No thanks.
Comments: Four key chances in this race for mine with Flying Hostess, Spirited Will, Capalbio and Spellrocker. I get the feeling the rail will play well for Spellrocker here today.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Spellrocker E/W
Caulfield Race 3
Zlatan: How well is the rail playing? If your answer is very well, then this is your horse to be on. Will lead this up today and is back in class but goes well at this distance with 4 wins from 8 attempts. Is 1 win from 1 try at the track and has won firs tup in the past. Last prep and previous prep combined has not missed a place in 7 runs with 4 of those resulting in wins. Looks the value.
The Wingman: Runs this prep have been fair without getting close. Down in class again today but needs to find lengths.
Royal Mail: Doesn’t deserve to be racing in city on what it showed last start or any previous start from last two preps. Get it right then come back IMO.
Bombalatomba: Average at best first up and is really wanting further than this today. Never placed from 3 starts at distance or 4 starts a track. Never won 2nd up.
Galileo Gold: I actually saw merit in his last start run. Down 3kg today and should actually run well today. Could place.
Quick Snitzel: Geez he is short today. Two back run was only fair when firs tup. Last start ran home well over 1630m at Flemington to just get beaten by Sistine Demon not having the will to win. Up 0.5kg today and will go back from barrier 6 again. I don’t see where the speed will come from to set it up so well for him to be confident enough to take the shorts. Looks a lay.
Makeadreamcometrue: On form won’t go close to placing.
Medvedev: Fairly disappointed by last start run considering last prep form. Can we forgive? Should sit further forward today from barrier 4.
Try Pickle: No excuses first up. Takes long to get into prep. No thanks.
Tigerish: CL1 winner last start. Might as well just read as a maiden win. No thanks. Can’t see this progression.
Transfer Allowance: Hasn’t been measuring up in city class. Goes ok but this does look a big step.
Comments: Very keen on Zlatan here especially if the rail is playing well for front runners.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Zlatan 2 units to place 1 unit to win.
Caulfield Race 4
Lady of Harrods: Gone around $5 or less the last two starts and will again today. 58kg after claims today with the third rider in three tries. Had every chance two starts back and wasn’t good enough. Last start did run better down the straight but up to 1200m again today. I wouldn’t be overly shocked if she did go close today but I can’t be with her.
Means A Lot: Just ignore last run of last prep and judge on three runs. Won over 1000m first up last prep at course in similar company. Equal weight today as well. Barrier 1 hurts as most likely sits forward. Never missed a place at this distance or track. If returns at best can go well.
Royal Bender: Hasn’t shown us anything since a 3rd at MV. Hard to have even at weights.
You Can Dance: Ran on well last start without threatening. Lesser company today if you ask me and better weighted. Can go close. .
Tykook: Runs this prep after the win at Bendigo have been up and down. Not sure I can back her off the last few runs to be honest. This looks a step up in class.
Counted: Run three back was solid but last two runs have been very poor considering and she has had every chance. Back to the 1200m and back to caulfield. The tempo should be hot. I’m happy to forgive to be honest and rank her a slight chance.
Beach Front: Continues to prove herself with a smart win over Five All last start at MV who was then up in class at Flemington on Wednesday and went close behind Gig. Maps to sit further back today is the only query but 54kg. Weighted to win.
Spending: Jumped poorly and showed nothing first up down the straight. Suggest you just forgive. Off 52kg today looks weighted very nicely from barrier 5.
Sinhala: Won’t be placing going off last four runs.
Valid Contract: Meets Beach Front 2.5kg better off today but needs to make up 3.5L. To be fair, it was a front runner dominated race and well in at the weights second up could be the trick? Don’t discount her. She is a 4YO Magnus after all!
Royal Scandal: Disappointing to say the least at Flemington. Two back run was solid from the back behind Frankly Fast. 51kg today looks to be weighted to win.
Lonhtime: Progressive type who hasn’t been pushed for runs. Can run well.
Comments: 8 runners in total here I think are in with a chance to win. Lady of Harrods, Means a Lot, You Can Dance, Counted, Beach Front, Spending, Royal Scandal and Lonhtime.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: I think Beach Front is the one to beat today but I’m going to take her on with THREE outsiders who all have big claims. You Can Dance on top from Counted and Royal Scandal.
Caulfield Race 5
Churchill Dancer: Last start every chance but just poor to the line. Up 3.5kg today and only ever won once. Hard to see here all things considered.
Trust In A Gust: Runs well on any surface and put in a very strong win last start on Heavy in 3YO grade. Two back a nice win in solid time at Bendigo while the 4th to Hucklebuck three back isn’t bad either. Has won $200k for a reason.
Kievann: Strong win three back then two back something went wrong it seems with the performance. Last start in much easier company got the win. Needs to step up again today. Can he do it? I have my reasons to not be with him.
Written Up: Impressive maiden win by 3.3L on slow in a 11 runner race over 900m. Then next start ran Mays Dream in 2YO class to 1L over 1300m. Hasn’t been seen for 6 months and looks WAY over the odds off that form.
Colours of the Wind: Brave run from a long way back last start going around them. Up 2kg today but comes into this well. Can go close.
This Is The Show: Times suggest he isn’t up to this.
Pandyan: Blocked fo rrun first up when probably should have got the win. 2YO form was only fair. Will be comin from the back. Small chance.
Magnus Opus: Magnus 3Yo who won a fairly average maiden. Can run well but big step up.
Wild Fire: Not seen for 7 months and then wins what was only an average 3YO Maiden by 5.3 lengths. Is he good? I can’t have but could place or even win.
Star Approach: Looked progressive last prep. Ran on well at Cranbourne last run.
Comments: A few progressive types. My Best Bet from this race was scratched and this has now become a non-bet race for me .
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 4, 5, 10
Strategy: Colours of the Wind on top. Written Up second pick.
Caulfield Race 6
Finishing Card: Very poor first up. Way back in class today and has a decent record second up, at this track and at this distance. Weight is an issue and so is the fact he didn’t win a race last year.
Johnnydrama: Disappointed for run and lost a plate first up, yet didn’t go too bad if you ask me. Down 2kg today after claims and up to 1200m. Unknown but hard to ignore him.
Big Buddy: Shown nothing this prep and hard to have.
Captain Fancypantz: Oh, my nemesis. I love him but hate him. He has been a cat so to speak. Interestingly, first up is the time to get him with 2/2 for first up runs and wins and goes well at this distance. They did push him to a WFA-G1 last start just if that gives you an indication of what they think of him. Can win and maps well from 2.
Halfblood Prince: Slotted home some good wins last prep but his best was found on Heavy. Weighted ok and does run well at this distance, but wants further IMO. A long way back today?
Horacio: Ran home well without impressing me last start. Couldn’t have even at weights.
Paaratte Pat: Has been running well this prep. Won four back, then since then has ran 5th, 4th and 3rd. Destined for 2nd today? Weight is a little harsh with an extra step up today. Up to 1200m is the big negative and wide barrier.
Alert The Jeweller: First up run had merit but gone backwards since. Step down in grade helps today but needs to find at least a length from last three runs.
Cahier: First up run was solid when missing the start and was checked which got him back. Will sit further forward today from barrier and if improves today is a very good chance with 2nd up record solid and distance record solid.
The Travelling Man: Turned his poor form around last start at Mornington in a much easier race. Maps to sit further back today but why change a winning formula? Will probably go further forward than expected. Needs to improve again at these weights.
Chow Meow: Not suited down the straight so just ignore that run. Look to two back when had every chance but just failed to get there. Weighted ok.
Laohu: Huge start to finish win last start at Bendigo beating home a strong runner in Oltre Finito. The time was VERY fast and he is down 1.5kg today after claims. Big chance.
Prince Stratum: Last start run was certainly worse than his previous two runs. Down 2kg today brings him back into being a favourite for a good reason. Any slight improvement and he is the one to beat.
Cast Iron: Not going close on last start run but two and three back brings him a slight chance at weights.
Comments: I want to take the time to talk through my tip here. Captain Fancypantz cost us a bit last prep just not getting wins. This is by far his easiest test in 6 runs. He won a Country open grade 5 runs ago by 2L, then ran 6th in WFA-G3 company over 1200m at course. After that at Flemington ran 1L 5th on a Slow track over 1400m in Open Grade. Next start ran a close 3rd to Let’s Make ADeal over 1600m, a horse who was less than a length from being in the Melbourne Cup field. Finally the last start in WFA-G1 the run was just poor and is an ignore. So when you consider all the data we have, combined with his first up record of 2 from 2, seriously down in grade when he was competitive in much higher (his WFA races were off this weight), I can’t tip around him and am very keen at the price.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Two: 4, 9, 11, 12, 13
Strategy: E/W bet on Captain Fancypantz. Saver on Laohu.
Caulfield Race 7
Free of Doubt: Continues to improve and impress this prep. Win three back, 0.1L defeat two back and then 0.8L win at Flemington last start. BACK inc lass today and up 3.5kg, comes into this with strong winning form. Only issue is the barrier but not much pace inside of him. Can get a good spot and go on and win.
Infinite Energy: First up run was very solid behind Flamberge then up in class down the straight was very poor. Back to Caulfield where he has a solid record and always runs well. Need to run on from way back is the issue. Weighted ok.
Giresun: Won’t be getting close to them on previous two runs this prep.
Cosentino: Had every chance out the front last start setting a closeish tempo. Expect the same today. Can’t see winning without a 5L speed lane.
General Offer: Ran well without threatening last start. 5.5kg better off today against Free of Doubt. At weights hard to ignore.
Too Deadly: 2kg better off today against Floatmyboat for 0.5L. Previous run was solid at Flemington also. Every chance today but will have to come from the back. Is there enough speed on? Doubt it.
Bradman: His one good win last year was strange. He hasn’t reproduced that since. Last few runs poor but last start was ok but still 4 beat him home. Won’t win this.
Pillar of Creation: Shown nothing this prep. Weighted well today but can’t be near him!
Meritorious: Needs further and less classy races.
Daybreak: Just ignore last start and look to run two back. 2kg better off today against Free of Doubt which is pretty serious! Barrier 4 will position much closer today than last start. Big chance at the odds!
Final Jest: Hard to see him measuring up.
Tooleybuc Kid: Not the worst run first up. Up to 1400m suits better today and 54kg is kind. Coming from a long way back.
Comments: I have my short list down to Free of Doubt, Infinite Energy and Daybreak. I think Free Of Doubt is shorter odds than he should be against Daybreak so I can’t back him today. Infinite Energy has serious questions to answer at this distance.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 7, 12, 14
Strategy: Daybreak.E/W
Caulfield Race 8
Alrouz: Went close last start without threatening really. Equal weight today which means he meets Initiator 2.5kg better off up 200m which suits. Barrier is only issue but he maps to be the only other speed in it outside of Initiator.
Canonized: Went close two back at course and distance in similar class. Off 57kg today he can run well again. Barrier a massive issue to get a good spot in running. Probably a few lengths short.
Initiator: Three back heavy win suggested he would get over the 1600m with ease.. but two back run at Caulfield saw him just fall painfully short in the last 100m. Last start he was back 200m and got to the line with ease leading all the way. They should try lead again today. Weight is the issue.
Stynes: Last few runs just not city class. No thanks.
King’s A Star: Not close.
LookLook: Showed nothing firs tup. No thanks.
Tilla Bell Rings: Outclassed last start and at weights should be outclassed again by a few. May try and sit further forward from 6 which could be the main chance to catch these?
Magnapal: Barrier the main concern today. How far back will he get shuffled? Ran well last start but needs to improve today to beat home Alrouz and Initiator at weights.
Parishon: Last three runs been too poor to measure up here.
Fresh Light: Way back in class last start and just couldn’t break them down for a win. Hard to see here.
Nisos: Continues to run ok but has to find 2 lengths at least today which doesn’t seem to be there.
Topkapi: Good win last start over 1600m at Bendigo. The yard have a strong opinion of this gelding but I doubt he is this grade.
Subiaso: Surprised us a little last start when improved significantly ridden differently. Barrier 19.. will they try lead again? I doubt it. Down 4kg back inc lass worth noting.
Aurora Lights: Very poor last start. Folded up very quickly. Super disappointing. May ride from back today. I still can’t have.
Proper Madam: Didn’t show us enough the last two runs to consider today.
Grand Slam Eagle: Showed something last prep but this prep hasn’t shown much. Up in distance the query of how far he will go.
Balayeur: Is he better on the slow? Tombola form hasn’t worked out and at weights poorly weighted vs Magnapal.
Prakticality: Very disappointing last start. hard to see measuring up here either.
Comments: A race of two again for mine in Alrouz and Initiatior. I get the feeling Alrouz is the value.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 4, 8, 9, 18
Strategy: Alrouz on top from Initiator.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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