Welcome to The Profits form guide for Bendigo on 13 August 2014. Just a quick one today we there is a little bit of value on offer, i’ve looked at a race I don’t want to play in and i’ve told you why one of the best backed runners of the day is my lay of the day. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Race 4 Bendigo
Dancing Rose is the best horse on recent form in the race but will be a LONG way back in the run and need a lot of luck to get home. Very happy to take her on today with the 58kg.
Mumbeilly is the stand out on the odds for me. Very good E/W odds. Last three runs have all been very solid and is returning to her best form. Suitable distance, track and class today.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Small E/W Mumbeilly
Race 5 Bendigo
I honestly am not sure I could bet here.
Soosa Rama looked to be the goods last prep but that last start fail was a huge concern.
nadhima showed enough two and three back to suggest she could measure up.
I have a big opinion of Diamond Glow over this distance back in this grade and weighted nicely today.
Gold Heist looks the unknown of the race. After winning that maiden she beat Mrs Hadlee who is a very good horse and then ran 2nd to Atlantis Dream who is going huge this prep.
Nella Fantasia looked to be a very good horse progressing last prep but just didn’t go to the next level. Has been ok this prep.
Must be Mink looks unders today based on form this prep. Happy to bet around.
Have to respect Tawteen on what she did first prep.
Comments: This is a tricky race with too many chances. I try and avoid races where there are more than 4 winning chances unless there is clear value on offer, but i can’t spot it with so many first time runners.
Confidence: None
Strategy: Sit this one out.
Race 6 Bendigo
I can’t find a reason to not bet Devonshire Duke today. Maps perfectly from barrier 3 today and based on his last two runs when 2.5L winner over in Adelaide and then 0.8L 3rd to Digitalism last start at Moonee Valley, he finds himself in a very winable race.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Devonshire Duke E/W
Race 8 Bendigo
Very keen to be taking this guy on today. I wasn’t exactly impressed with the last start run in harder company and he meets Running Bull 2kg worse off today while also racing other horses with impressive form lines such as So Does he and Bardem (2L 4th in 3Y-GP2 to Thunder Fantasy at Caulfield etc).
Simply put, the price is wrong today and i’m very happy to be putting my money against.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: LAY Yesterday’s Song
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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