Welcome to The Profits form guide for Ascot and Ballarat on 22 November 2014. Well what an amazing day we have card wise with a full card of Sydney and Melbourne racing to choose from and that is topped off with the features from Perth. Holy Cow finished our night off nicely at Moonee Valley so hopefully we can get a few more best bets home today.
Whenever it happens, I always offer a *Disclaimer*. I was struck down fairly heavily this evening by The Flu so the form is taking a lot longer than normal to do. I’m putting the same effort into all the races I preview, but I think it’s always worth mentioning this. Thankfully my pre-form work is all done mid-week which does cement in my mind a few prices I need for certain horses.
Best Bet
Ballarat Race 2 Danestroem
Next Best
Ballarat Race 10 Tashbeeh
Best E/W
Ballarat Race 3 Beauty’s Beast
Ballarat Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 10
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 6, 13, 14
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 5, 10
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 7, 10, 15
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Ballarat Race 1
Bm-70 over 2300m with 17 runners and form lines from all around Aus. I couldn’t bet here so won’t waste my time reviewing the form in my state. De Little Engine the tip if you want one.
Comments: Sit it out.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: De Little Engine to win.
Ballarat Race 2
Counted: Showed nothing first up. Never placed 2nd up a concern. Has ability but not here for me.
Kristy Lee: Loves to run well without winning. Weighted okay here if i’mn honest but never placed from 6 tries in this class a massive concern. Maps poorly for mine.
Vain Attraction: Very hard horse to catch. Has a short sprint and doesn’t win out of turn. Will be close enough coming into straight but have to produce peak of this prep to run them down.
Danestroem: Probably the run to follow from the Flemington carnival. Had no right to box on so well last start at Flemington with the winds and tried to get that line so hard. 54kg today, weighted to win and won’t have much issue leading or siting outside leader.
Flash of Doubt: Very lucky to win three back and not shown any form since. Happy to bet around.
Suite Sucess: Just got the win last start at MV.. but what did she beat? Sensational Report? Would be $10+ in this race. Respect consistently of this horse.
I Love It: Showed talent last prep but even though blocked at Caulfield last start, didn’t show enough to suggest the improvement.. but has had a month off so never know?
Sentfromthestars: Ran well to win first up but found out by lesser grade runners last start. No thanks.
Comments: When all else fails, go back to Jackie Beriman to get us a winner, she did last night on Holy Cow and expecting similar here with Danestroem. Will have the ability to control the race and back to 1200m the key for mine after a tough run at Flemington last start. Course will also still be wet enough to have sting out that is key.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Danestroem to win.
Ballarat Race 3
Tax Evader: Horrible barrier today. Weighted nicely and first up today off 1400m. Best seen over 1600m+ is the issue and best on dead… should stil run well.
Beauty’s Beast: Promosing type who has lost all 3 runs this prep but continues to do it running well. Last start at Flemington led all the way when it was unsuitable conditions and had breathing issues. Weighted very well here and looks value.
Mannopoly: Continues to improve on his runs this prep back after 2 years off! 57kg suitable and can handle a hot or slow tempo and win either way. No issue with 1400m. Looks a danger!
Gracious Prospect: Running very well recently and 1L 3rd to General Groove is good form lines. Maps perfectly from barrier 4.
Hunger: Been off since 2013. Only won at R-86 level is the issue in Adelaide. Have to find another gear at this distance to measure up first up.
Hinchley Wood: Shown nothing most this prep to suggest he has a win in him even when fav last start at Geelong! So well weighted against Mannopoly today it’s crazy.
Tiny’s Legacy: Very good last prep but hasn’t measured up so far into this prep yet at this level. Hard to have.
Bon Rocket: Very good 4th at Flemington and beat Floatmyboat last start. Meets Floatmyboat 2kg worse off today though.
Magnus Effect: Close 2nd at MV last start behind Holy Heart. First up run and win was worth following also. Looks the threat at weights.
Comments: Beauty’s Beast maps to lead today and looks suited by the track and tempo. Looks the value of the race. Magnus Effect probably the improver at weights who has to be watched while Gracious Prospect is the other to be respected highly. Not sure what to make of Mannopoly.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Beauty’s Beast E/W
Ballarat Race 4
Lots of runners with little to no form lines that can be worked into the form. The first of three races in a row i’m going to give you a tip but won’t be playing.
I Am The General is a good horse but showing nothing this prep. Reigning Meteor on the other hand ran well at Flemington down the straight. Respect that run. Wild Rain could be anything as well the bottom pick. Too much variance.
Comments: Sit this bad boy out.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Reigning Meteor to win.
Ballarat Race 5
One of those races where there isn’t enough information to fully review the fields. Two stand-outs are Shaf and Devon Princess. Lean towards Devon Princess.
Comments: Sitting it out
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Devon Princess E/W
Ballarat Race 6
I can’t bet here. No form for 4 runners and the favourite looks a very very good type. Huge prize on offer and this race is clearly being targeted by trainers. Would be backing Prompt Return if anything here… but happy to stay out.
Comments: Happy to sit this out as well.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Prompt Return to win
Ballarat Race 7
Henwood: Been up a very long time this prep, but he was a very unlucky 2nd last start at Moonee Valley. He is a proven Open class winner and off 57.5kg after claims today rates very well at the price. I like to make jokes about him losing as fav often, but he looks suited.
Limes: Every chance all 3 runs this prep. Hard to justify backing today… but chances are they probably take a sit and improves lengths?
Pago Rock: Shown his best on wet tracks. Will be crying out for the the pending storms to hit, but it doesn’t look promising. Very good chance if surface is wet.
Rebel Truce: Last win was in 2013 in Adelaide. Last prep ran well enough in a cup and a few runs at Adelaide. Decent first up record but needs to be peaking.
Ventic: Last two runs have been decent. Has to improve again here but I thought both runs had merit.
King Buddy: Never won first up an issue but has decent form over the 1200m distance last prep. Has to have improved to win this but weighted nicely.
Kosciuszko’s Side: Not the worst runner here. First up record questionable though. Could place at a price.
Mighty Like: Another runner who was winning well last prep in Adelaide but just couldn’t beat a few in town Melbourne. Decent first up record and goes well at distance, but has to find another gear to beat them all.
Tildy Lad: Won 4 in a row but up in class last start a good 2nd to Nite Rocker. Maps well enough but very short in market considering form.
Sterosonic: Didn’t beat too much last start at Kyneton but could place on the run. Has to improve.
Written Intent: Well beaten all three runs this prep. Hard to back but does like the track.
Comments: Henwood is the play here on a Good surface. The $8 before scratchings last night was a steal, with the main threat scratched the $5+ is still value though on my ratings. On a dead or worse I would also be having something on Pago Rock.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Henwood E/W
Ballarat Race 8
Fat Al: Shown nothing all prep but did win Bendigo large race in Autumn with no real form either… but was on Slow. No thanks.
Tuscan Fire: This bloke is flying. He hit the lead at the wrong time last start at Flemington from a more forward position… barrier 1 should see him get the required cover and fly late. Has a blistering late sectional and have to consider him a top chance at peak runs.
Tanby: Thought the run at Seymour was decent. Last start very poor. Hard to rate.
Hury Gurdy Man: Shown nothing this prep and not won since 2013… shown best over further.
Vilanova: Had his chances last two runs in this grade. Good barrier the key but has to improve.
At First Sight: Much better run at Ararat last start. Only ever won 1 race. Did run 10th in Melb Cup though. Hard to have from barrier.
Hvasstan: Disappointing last three runs. Wants a Dead track to find best. Barrier hurts chances.
The Inventor: Found out in similar grade last start. No thanks.
Electric Fusion: Hit and miss kinda horse who is talented. Not won since 2013 says something. Needs to still find more from last start and barrier sucks.
Mujadale: Much better run last start at Ararat turning back the poor previous runs form and winning.. but what did he actually beat considering At First Sight ran 2nd? Questionable form.
Motivado: Very very very good run two back at Seymour. Last start Respiratory issues… just ignore.. weighted nicely and has the ability at odds.
Spinderbella: Continues to improve with runs but this is a massive step up in class. Barrier is perfect, but favourite? Yikes!
You Think So: Talented gelding but his best may just be past him on what he have seen this and last prep.
Rialya: Shown nothing all prep. Can’t have.
Waltzing to Win: Actually a very good run last start behind Renew. Back to 2200m a massive issue for mine.
Happy as Hell: Very good win in Horsham two back and then last start solid at Ararat without winning. Has to improve.
Comments: Tuscan Fire rated a $5.60 chance so not MUCH edge, but enough especially if the horse peaks again.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Tuscan Fire E/W
Ballarat Race 9
Eximius: The one to clearly beat today. Unlucky in running last two runs and continues to improve. Would prefer a little sting out to find best though. Maps well.
Backstedt: Almost shocked last start from out the front with a very good run 2nd up. Have to respect on that run!
Freshwater Storm: Showed nothing at MV last start and not a shock. Horse has shown best runs at Caulfield. Never won here a concern.
Fulgur: Doesn’t win out of turn and best runs have all come on slow or heavy tracks. Won’t get that today.. would like it wet.
Our Hand of Faith: Just no luck last start at Flemington and didn’t well show much either. Rate on two and three back runs. Rates nicely but struggle to see what happened last start.
Outlandish Lad: Turned back the clock a bit and ran very well off top weight in the greys race last start at MV. Has to improve again though but rates okay.
Zuma Roc: Doesn’t like to win for us. Best shown over further.
Sadaqa: Surprise winner for mine last start at Flemington. Got the dream run. Big improvement. Have to respect.
King of Dudes: Just here for the run. Could place but not win.
Comments: Eximus maps to win today and comes in with the best form lines.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Eximus to win.
Ballarat Race 10
Scaredymac: Been racing in Picnics. Back to city today, outclassed on form.
Human League: Decent enough runs last two. Meets Astro Damus 4kg better off today though compared to 0.4L defeat two back. Comes into this weel and can make forward from barrier 3 to be just off speed.
Smashing Doubt: Led at Flemington and was never winning or placing doing that. Back in class here and weighted okay. Respect on the fact last start wasn’t typical. No wins on Good though.
Jahan: Been racing at Ararat and Hamilton in BM-64 grade. Step up in class and weighted poorly.
Corporate Takeover: Decent horse with city class form lines.. but gone backwards since 3YO win early in the year. Has to find lengths.
Tronador: Not being able to beat home Kincaple Chief last start says it all. Outclassed but could place and run a strong race.
Miss Maggiebeel: Strong run 2nd last start at Flemington but beaten fairly going to the line. Will be a long way back from barrier 1 a massive concern.
Savvy Henry: Needs further. Not classy enough on form lines.
Seul Spirit: Had his chance last start at Geelong in higher class and was found out. Surprise if won this.
Aestro Damus: Running well enough over in Adelaide but weighted poorly compared to Human League today. Not for mine from barrier.
Aurora Lights: Shown nothing first two runs this prep. Will be a long way back.
Tashbeeh: Super 3rd to Petrology who has franked the form since last start. Not the most genuine horse though finding ways to win.. should push to a handy spot from barrier. The horse to beat.
Mount Beckworth: Hard to see placing on previous form.
Comments: Strange old race with a LACK of tempo outside of Tronador so look for horses that can position forward. Tashbeeh rates to win.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Tashbeeh to win.
Ascot Race 7
Moment of Change: Very good run for 5th last start at Flemington. We rated it a F4 chance and he just missed unfortunately. Last win was in Feb of this year but hardly ever runs a bad race, especially on a Good or Dead track.. Respect his class and more importantly his ability to lead.
Sidestep: Well beaten last start at Flemington first up and Moment of Change has his measure. Will improve on that run and would really enjoy even more rain but that won’t happen. Respect his class.
Bel Sprinter: Missed start by 5L last start and run was better than it looked. How can you trust him though? Back in running as long as they are making up ground on the leaders all day. Wants a good track.
Watermans Bay: Every chance last few runs. Not good enough for this class on ratings.
Testamezzo: Awkward barrier. Good run last start 2nd in Group 3 class. Has to step up big time to win this.
Shining Knight: Very strong win first up over 1100m. Step up to 1200m no issues and loves a good track. Cocncern on what his best really is. Prefer the raiders.
Tiger Pete: Hard to see Pete measuring up in this class. Place at best and that is a stretch.
Eclair Big Bang: Very good horse and just got there last start at Flemington. Issue with the class of runner he beat though and also the fact this is a step up in class, up in weight and a shorter straight. Will need luck if they dont push forward hard early (mapped to do so but big question if they get in).
Rock Magic: Continues to improve through the grades. Found out last start at Ascot but wasn’t far off them. Find best on Dead tracks or wetter.
Windswept: Decent 5YO who has been measuring up in city grade before flying over for a campaign. Both runs had merit this prep but i’d be surprised to see them try and lead today. May get 1/1 spot.
Ysmael: Hasn’t measured up all prep just keeps finding a few too good but last start swooped well at Ascot. Has ability. Smokey?
Magnifisio: Very good win last start over Fuchsia Bandana. Been competing in WFA and winning. Loves it good. Respect and pushing forward.
Angelic Light: Huge win first up, huge run two back and even huger last start when was very unlucky not to beat them all over in the Manikato. The price being bet today is crazy and unders on my ratings.. that being said, I’ve gone very hard on the horse to win in the futures market at $8.50 when they announced they were going, it wasn’t hard to see she would be the best horse in the race. Best horse, best jockey. Rates to win.
Comments: My ratings have Angelic Light a $3.35 chance, which means the $3.15 being bet right now is under what I would need to bet the horse. A drift to $3.70 would mean i’d be betting. I think this race is a watch and see. If the leaders are winning and the rail playing very well, Moment of Change is a huge chance and the $5.2 currently on offer has to be taken. Sidestep is now unders at the $7.4 being bet but has to be respected while Bel Sprinter is not trustable to jump well (if keen back at lower in-play when jumps 1L or less off them). Eclair Big Bang has to be respected, but with the barrier draw, will need to work hard to get a spot.. will be tough to the line, but may lack the dash required to beat Angelic Light. Ysmael looks the value of the locals but Magnifisio is the one to respect and watch back to 1200m today (barrier an issue).
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Angelic Light at $3.70 if available. If leader bias is clear, back Moment of Change down to $4.40 odds. Very happy to play around these two in the race no matter what happens.
Ascot Race 8
The Cleaner: Very very very good run last start at Flemington holding on for 3rd when you consider how many front runners placed during the carnival due to the winds at Flemington. Barrier 8 was the perfect draw as if he misses the start he can still roll to the lead. Maps to lead and if the rail is playing strongly for front runners, then he may just be impossible to pass.. so pay close attention to early races.
Moriarty: Running around in a Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate last two runs. Back to 1600m today. Beat Rising Romance over 2000m three back in WFA-G3 company which is a valid form line. Barrier 19 a pain.
Smokin’ Joey: Continues to run well without going close. Too wide last start at Flemington… I respect those runs he put in but think with such a pace on he will need massive improvement.
Alma’s Fury: Ran Hucklebuck to 0.8L just 7 days before The Cleaner ran 3rd. Step up to 1600m probably have to be a bit of a query, but has won 3 times at distance in the past. Is going very well. Pushing forward from barrier 18… need a lot of luck to get a run with cover.
Mr Moet: Hasn’t won since 2012 and over further. Did run some okay races from the back last prep but that isn’t where u want to be with The Cleaner. No thanks.
Ihtsahymn: Hasn’t shown enough on all three runs this prep even at the weights for mine to suggest he is peaking here and can run down The Cleaner. Barrier does help though.
Elite Belle: Beat some very good horses last prep and this prep including Barakey. Injured during race last start at Ascot a fair excuse. Barrier an issue but have to consider ability.
Amorino: Massive step up in class to place here. Hard to see.
Balmont Girl: Group 3 winner last start. Never won at 1600m but always placed. Looking for further than 1400m with win over 2400m last prep. Weighted nicely and probably push forward from barrier. Have to respect this class.
Bass Strait: I backed him in last start and was very thankful for the win. Proved outclassed in this league over in Melbourne and i’ll consider that applys here also.
Chester Road: Hasn’t raced since 2012. Hard to back off that even though was measuring up in WFA races (not winning).
Fancy Feet: Outsider for a reason. Two runs this prep solid but not good enough to beat this field.
Fuchsia Bandana: Three strong runs all prep but didn’t beat much two back. Not suited by tempo today.
Platnium Rocker: Will position outside THe Cleaner or just off him. didn’t measure up in FM-GP quality last prep and beaten fairly last two starts this prep.
Ranger: Not the same horse as 2011. No thanks even if suited by tempo, too far back.
Respondent: Every chance last start and not good enough. Big step up in class as well and even at weights not sure he has the staying turn of foot required. Only positive is barrier 1.
Comments: Elite Belle is the best chance of the locals for mine on recent runs and previous form lines, but still has to improve and is a query off the tempo. Alma’s Fury looks the value of the raiders after two very solid runs and up to 1600m here… remember even down the Flemington straight he ran 4L off Chautauqua first up. Weighted nicely and will enjoy the tempo. The Cleaner is the top dog here for me as long as the track is playing well for front runners. Alma’s Fury is rated close to a $12 chance than the $18 currently on offer and has to be bet while The Cleaner who is currently $5.20 is a $3.80 chance as long as the rail is favouring leaders OR playing fair.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: The Cleaner to win. Smaller bet Alma’s Fury.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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