Welcome to The Profits write-up for Saturday 19 January 2013 covering the Flemington and Rosehill races. There are some strong fields at both venues today with a few stand outs in each. Don’t forget to also have a look at our Tennis form guide which has been VERY profitable the past two days. As always, we hope your form matches up with ours. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Flemington Race 6 Another Prelate
Next Best
Flemington Race 5 Infinite Energy
Best Value
Flemington Race 8 Minnie Downs
Best Lay
Flemington Race 3 First Command
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Flemington
Flemington Race 1
The Yowie: 4.5L 2nd to Clevadude doesn’t seem bad form when you consider the price it ran last weekend.
Bring Back: No form to go from. Rawiller on board always interesting.
Magic Mike: Breeding looks average at best.
Devil Woman: Ran on well two back behind Clevadude and then last start a little disappointing. Still a bit chance.
Kona Breeze: Super disappointing first up. Can win but needs to improve.
Badabing Badaboom: Not the worst breeding but market is only guide.
Fairlie: Boss on board always a bonus. Hard to tell how she will go. Market guides.
Metastasio: Average breeding. Market guide.
Prospect Street: Nothing stands out.
Confidence 55%
Flemington Race 2
Enchanting Waters: Never won first up and only placed once first up. Interestingly ran on well two preps back at course and distance behind Mawingo by 2.5L which seems to be nice form.. Does look to be wanting further but could shock.
Dayita: Simply wasn’t good enough last start at Caulfield. Should be at best third up today off 57kg down in class. Was still not disgraced last start. Can win well.
Unchain my Heart: Never placed from 4 starts first up and didn’t show anything last prep. Never placed from 7 at this distance.
Goldslick: Not the worst form lines behind Rose Pattern and British General but hasn’t been finishing close enough to suggest can win today.
Sensational Report: Ran on very well 2.3L behind Tariana last start at Caulfield and looks primed for a win today. Can push forward again from barrier 7 today and looks even more suited by the 1600m than the 1200m. Big chance.
Kasane: Disappointing last start over the 1200m but should be more suited by the up in distance to 1600m today. Won well at course and similar distance three back. Could be value.
Family Crest: Comes into the race with strong form lines around Princess Toshi and Oriental Ruby. Down 6kg today and way up in class, has the ability to go close today on times.
This Cat’s Magic: Doesn’t seem classy enough off previous four runs this prep.
Street Diamond: Don’t count her out today. Weighted nicely and ran a blistering 0.2L 3rd behind Rose Pattern last start. May be suited by a fast tempo if it comes on today.
Stardom: Did everything wrong last start and has the ability to improve on that run today.
Angela’s Dream: Just keeps finding ways to get beat. Happy to be against today.
Confidence 65%
Flemington Race 3
First Command: Won very well first up at Caulfield and is down 1kg today. Won by a good 1.3L but you have to believe the field that day was average at best for an Open class race. Rates nicely and good times but there is a big question mark around how he will handle the straight facing the breeze. Looks to be a lay at the price today.
Rocking Force: Meets First Command 3kg worse off today and was 1.3L off him last start. Can’t win off weights.
Good Ba Ba: The most interesting runner. Ran on strongly in a nice form race behind Adamantium. Suited more by the small field today and down 4.5kg which is a massive bonus. The 1000m is a question mark no doubt, but on that previous run, seems to be value today with Newitt on board.
Diplomatic Force: Disappointing last start but should be suited more by the 1000m than the 1200m last start. Could find the straight is favourable and will take a sit. Should finish strong late.
Belfast Boy: Won well last start in a race that was run to suit in a super fast 1000m time. Down 3kg today which looks favourable. If produces similar to last start, can go close.
Light Express: Hard to place her here today. Has the ability to go over close but must have trained on and this does look too classy.
Confidence 75%
Flemington Race 4
Crookhaven: Good win last start at course and distance but from barrier 16 and up 6kg today meeting Red Inca for example 2.5kg worse off for 0.1L today, you can’t see him progressing that much again today.
Haussmann: Meets Crookhaven 1.5kg better off today for 0.5L. Has the ability to go close.
Emperor Max: Good win last start in 3YO class at Morphetville and does look progressive but this is another step up. Can go well.
Red Inca: Well weighted today with good form lines, Looks to be the horse to beat.
Champagne Tales: Running some nice races but doesn’t seem classy enough on those runs.
Lingo: Big win last start at Cranbourne but this is much harder. Did run on well on a slowish time.
Subiaso: Simply ignore his last two starts. Is suited by the distance but may be wanting slightly further. Can’t really be on today but could surprise and win.
Pillar of Creation: Decent form lines from 2YO career but couldn’t win a maiden last start at $1.50 when blocked for run.
Righteous Ruler: Very solid run last start when you consider he lost a plate. Down 2.5kg today and is in with a big chance.
Babur: On last start can’t win today.
Eye The World: Super strong form lines behind Ferment who has gone on and won again. Could be value off 54.5kg.
General Groove: Ran on well last two starts and up in class today but down to 53kg. Win wouldn’t shock but needs to find more lengths today.
Magnapal: Not good enough.
Lissom: Not good enough.
Grade: Hard to know where he is at. Let money decide.
The Unexpected: Down 5.5kg today from very poor run last start when started $4.20 which was a stupid price. Needs to find more today.
Confidence 75%
Flemington Race 5
Bigelow: Threatened to win thre eback at Moonee Valleyb ut since then has been very disappointing. A win wouldn’t be a shock but looks to be a better horse off 1000m not 1400m.
Verdasco: Omen lay? Verdasco lost in the tennis yesterday and off 57kg with Thornton riding it is hard to see him turning it around today.
Adamon: Not good enough off weights on recent form.
Val Mondo: Looking for further distances.
Devils Force: Ran ok two back so don’t judge last start. Up 5kg today is a big negative.
Gail: Not the first first up but has to improve 2-3L today for a chance.
Giresun: Ran on nicely last two starts behind Admantium and British General. Up 3kg today but Mc Evoy goes on board which is a good booking. Does need to still find about 1.5L today.
Goldstone: Most interesting runner today. Up to 1400m should be what he is needing. Will go back from barrier 2 which may be a negative as could get stuck. Has all of the ability in the world but needs to get the right run.
Langridge Street: Ignore first up run.. Still needs further distances.
Rebel Truce: Been running some decent times recently but does seem to be not classy enough today.
Infinite Energy: Top hope today down in class and only up 1.5kg. British General form is good form. Just like Goldstone, will need a bit of luck from an inside barrier but Nolen knows hat to do.
Blue Ribbon: Not good enough on first two runs.
Karoo: Not classy enough for this on form lines.
Murdoch’s Joy: Good win last start but that was in a race 10 grades below this.
Signor Socks: Keeps putting in solid runs but this is a step up in class once again today and not good off at weights.
Captura: Form doesn’t read good enough to suggest a win.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg one: 1, 8, 10, 11
Flemington Race 6
Lord of Brazil: The class runner of the field who has missed only two places in the last 17 races. Up to 1720m today should suit but the 60kg does hurt. Suited by barrier 8 and goes well at Flemington. No doubt that he has the ability to win today.
Chasse: Been fairly over rated this prep and has been unders every race. Doesn’t look well off today either.
Lucky Eighty Eight: Ran betetr than expected second up off 60kg and down 4kg today after claims. From barrier 2 will position nicely but need to find another length today.
Buxted: Decent form lines last start but seems to be needing further.
Chasm: Last two starts have been solid but needs to find 2L today that doesn’t seem there.
Red Colossus: Good win last start in an easier race. Down 1.5kg also. Big chance today.
Spacecraft: Super disappointing last start when ridden with a sit. Schofield could ride him to a win but can’t back today.
Montgomery: Never won from 10 tries at the distance or won first up from 7 or even placed at track from 5 tries. Can’t have today first up.
Another Prelate: A bit chance today. Form lines behind Secret Liaison (0.2L) and Zabisco (0.8L) means he can win. Big chance.
Bolton: Was over rated last start and proved that he doesn’t ahve the legs. Can’t have today.
White Universe: Good run last start and nicely weighted today but finds Another Prelate only 0.5L better off today and need to make up 1.3L.
Snow Cover: Big win last start at Caulfield and today is down a further 2.5kg up in grade. Big chance.
Brehat: French form lines are nice.. but on that first up run you couldn’t back today. May simply be wanting the weight… but needs further it seems.
Under the Hat: Not good enough today on two previous runs.
The New Boy: Went close two back to beating British General and then last start took Snow Cover close also. Meets Snow Cover worse off at weights today but if gets an easy time out front, could steal it.
Lordoftheparrots: Not good enough.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg two: 1, 9, 11, 12, 15
Flemington Race 7
Dame Claire: Getting up to distances that she can win from. Ran very well early in this prep over the 200m and also at Flemington. Off 57kg seems reasonable and from barrier 4 you would hope she goes forward unlike last start. When you consider her form this prep, has to be a great chance at a price today.
Hurdy Gurdy Man: Disappointing third up not getting the win. Up in class and weighted equally today, has the ability but need to find more up to the 2000m.
Elusive King: Progressive type who looks ready to win. Big run last start at course and distance but just couldn’t find enough. Will be the one to beat.
Sadalbari: Shocked us by putting in an ok run last start. Up to 2000m looks to suit as has placed 3 from 4 at distance.
Angolaner: Can’t touch on that first up run form. Looking for longer.
Westsouthwest: Not showing enough this prep for us to suggest the extra distance will make the difference.
Kutchinsky: Good run last start 2nd to Tuscan Fire at course and distance but up 1.5kg today and on previous runs needs to produce much more.
Heaven’s Riches: Looks to have trained on and down 1kg today after running on very well at Caulfield last start at massive odds. Could sneak a first 4 spot.
King’s a Star: Much harder company today but down 3.5kg. Needs to produce a career best run to place.
Beer Garden: Surprise packer that ran on strongly last start at Caulfield. Weighted nicely but does need to find a few more lengths.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg three: 1, 2, 3, 7
Flemington Race 8
Crimson Lady: Has run previous first up and at distance but looking for further it seems. 57kg seems fair.
Danish Whiskey: Big form lines coming into this race. Forgive last start where vet exam after race and look to two back. Suited here today off the 1410m.
Angelic Lass: Looks to be over the odds here. The weight does look to be the only negative but expect she can stay the distance and go close.
Folk Rock: Up to 59kg today, hard to see why she is favourite. Fierce Command didn’t win last night and the KYNE win wasn’t that impressive. Needs to find more.
Meliora: Will be pushing forward toay and on previous form can go very close. Big chance.
Baremin: Ran on niecly two back when blocked and four back 1.8L behind Danish Whiskey.
Estada: Form lines don’t read strong enough for this today.
Minnie Downs: BIG run 1L 5th to Zabisco last start. Can improve on this today down in class off only 56kg with bossy on board. The one to beat.
Nella Fantasia: Another with decent form lines who just can’t finish and win. Down to 51.5kg you know you will get a good run.
Melting Moment: Hard to back today on only one run where didn’t win.
Perfect Offering: Has to improve today off 54kg but on two back run has ability to improve.
Spirit of Soul: Not good enough on last start but could be forgiven.
Thorn Star: Doesn’t seem classy enough for this.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg four: 4, 5, 8, 11
Rosehill
Rosehill Race 1
The clear stand out in this race is General Peekay. Up from Melbourne after an impressive win.. looks to be a class above these.
Confidence 75%
Rosehill Race 2
Looks to be three main chances in this race with Frozen Rope, Disciple and Mr Edison with Feede an unknown off the last start win. Our guest blogger for this race ‘Mr Ed’ has put up Mr Edison as his best of the race. Weighted nicely today compared to Disciple and will get a strong run.
Confidence 75%
Rosehill Race 3
Several chances in this race. The key chances seem to be the top two in the market in She’s Clean and Princess Layla, both coming off failing to deliver on their form promises last start.
Confidence 70%
Rosehill Race 4
Two main hopes here and not much confidence after the scratching of That’s a Good Idea. Soapy Star looks nicely weighted up here today rom Moonee Valley but this may be a step up again today. Finally, Laser Flash could be very hard to beat.
Confidence 65%
Rosehill Race 5
Better race to be having a bet into today. That being said, Direct Charge is big overs. Expect him to sit further closer to the lead today.
Confidence 65%
Rosehill Race 6
Two main chances in this one. The first one we will look at is Masterstroke. Given a poor ride last start wide and should get a better nice today. Big chance off the 54kg. The other runner is Whitlam. Beat home Sessions last start and should improve again today.
Confidence 70%
Rosehill Race 7
It’s hard to see Kukri losing this race after that brilliant run last start at course and similar distance. main threat seems to be Secessio for us.
Confidence 65%
Rosehill Race 8
Up 4kg today after a great win last start at nice odds for us, Merlin Mustang will certainly be hard to pass. The few with a good chance are: Testarhythem who ran on very well the last two starts and keeps progressing, Gazza Guru who is absolutely weighted to win and major overs at this weight today and Circle of Power who won well last start.
Confidence 65%
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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