Welcome to The Profits form for Caulfield! Moonee Valley last night was a bit hit and miss. Our best bet won by 6L as you would expect with a $1.45 favourite after deductions with the second favourite being scratched late in the day. Today looks to be a very tough card, but we believe there is a fair bit of value on offer and we have tried to extract it. Look wide, don’t just take the top picks today. As always, we hope your form matches up to ours. Good luck and happy punting!
Caulfield Racecard
Download our one page PDF Racecard here.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 2 Waratone
Next Best
Caulfield Race 4 Spot on Maggie (to place)
Sydney Best
Rosehill Race 5 Travolta
Best Value
Caulfield Race 6 Hotham Heights
Caulfield Race 7 Westsouthwest
Rosehill Race 7 Paramount Pete (to place)
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Caulfield Race 1
Bernardini Genie: One brother who hasn’t produced anything good yet. Market only guide. Out of Hayes yard which is always interesting. If looks good in yard, worth a spec.
Change of Honour: Went off favourite in a country meet but disappointed. Can’t have today, seemed to have every chance.
Exclusive Hour: First in the family so market is only guide.
Seriously Happy: Has a fairly handy 3YO brother who has won around 80k to date. Trialled well.
Distinctive Flyer: Market only guide.
Register: Won a trial and has a brother who isn’t ‘the worst’ you have ever seen. Could go close.
Spirits Dance: Fairly average breeding. Out of Moody Yard, could go well but ran behind Register in trials.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Might just sit and watch.
Caulfield Race 2
Module: Never placed at distance or track. 3L off last start at cup class and previous run at Flemington further off. Did run ok in the Horsham cup before that. Down in class today but up 4kg after claim.
Almodovar: Not going well enough this prep to win today off 58.5kg it seems. Does have a good record at the course and at the distance.
Waratone: Going great guns right now. Took care of Texan Warney with ease two back and won with no problems last start in a good time over 2010. With a 3kg claim today down to 55.5kg, is weighted to win.
Commanding Time: Good win last start in lesser class. Has been running very well all prep and will be hard to hold out. Big issue is never won at track from 4 and at distance from 2 starts.
Miss With Attitude: Much easier class of race today. Has ability to go well today.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Super keen on Waratone today. Looks suited and a very good price. Waratone 4 units with 0.75 units saver Commanding Time.
Caulfield Race 3
Marble Rye: Progressed very well with 4 months off and won his first up maiden easily backing that up with a similar class win by nearly 2L. Down 2kg today after claim up in class again. Certainly progressive enough to win.
Laohu: Good win last start in lesser class off a slow pace up front. Up 2.5kg today and will need to find a lot more than that run.
Caitlin’s Spirit: Can’t win on weights vs Laohu today.
Meliora: Went BANG and BANG in her last two starts last prep to win a maiden and then similar class race both by over 4L. Will go to the front again today and try and control the race. If trained on, has the ability to run well.
Babur: Good maiden win but would need to find a few extra lengths today.
Floatmyboat: On last start can’t win.
Sportscaster: Good maiden win and should have trained on. Could be value.
Mendivil: Can’t even win a maiden.
Royal Zenith: Been off for a while again but hasn’t shown near enough in all three starts to date.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Marble Rye looks the value and is worth a 1.5 unit bet. Meliora is the other horse with a big chance and deserves a 0.5 units saver.
Caulfield Race 4
Tariana: Runs well at distance and at track. Has won 3 from 4 first up (didn’t win last prep first up). Won 2 from 8 in class (no other places). On best form last start when 4.3L start to finish win over the 1200m at course and distance (on slow), simply wins this race.
Louisville Dancer: Ridden cold last start and got the perfect run at Moonee Valley to win well. Down in class and up in weight slightly, has the ability to repeat that run today.
Charlottes Mint: Very poor run first up. Can’t see winning today on that run.
City of Song: Ran better last start than has been this prep. Seems as though she will find a few too good once again, but a win wouldn’t shock.
Tykook: Had a few excuses last start. Will run well today again.
Stacy Lee: Had every chance last start. Doesn’t look good enough to win this.
Vain Attraction: Ran on nicely last start but has to improve again.
Spot on Maggie: Very poor run last start, but is weighted to win off 51.5kg meeting Stacey Lee, Louisville Dancer and others more than 4kg better off today than two back Geelong run where she beat them home. May have simply not liked the 1500m last start and back to 1200m will be the distance. Barrier 3 perfect.
Aces and Angels: Looks outclassed.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Quite a few runners in this race with ability and a shot. Quietly very keen on Spot On Maggie off the weight, but won’t be going crazy. 2.5 Units Spot on Maggie to win, 1 unit Tariana to win. I am going to put up a second strategy for this race. You should be able to get around the $2-$2.30 for Spot On Maggie to place and off the 51.5kg, it is really hard to see her missing a place if something like a City of Song or Tariana does progress past. 4 Units to place is also a good strategy.
Caulfield Race 5
Armed for Action: Down in class today but couldn’t get close the last four runs this prep. Happy to be against.
Kolonga: Excluding 3L 2nd to Isabella Snowflake this prep, has ran very poorly. Down 1.5kg today but needs to find a lot more than has shown.
Mawaakib: Good win first up and should have trained on for the Hayes yard. This is down in class today but questionmarks always for a horse that won on Heavy. Down 2kg today after claim is a bonus.
Queen’s of Ransom: Won a very fast run race first up at Sandown on a slow track. Down 1kg today and had 6 months off. Should go close.
Burndiniburn: If Seaside wins in the earlier race, could provide good form lines for burndiniburn. Suspect it won’t help with only 1 win from 8 at distance for her. Was a nice run last start but must find more.
Miss Softhands: Very green winning first up. Has a fair bit of upside but seems outclassed today.
Good and Hot: Broke through first up in much easier class and will struggle today even off 53kg after claim.
La Tikka Rosa: Showed a lot of promise last prep. Could have trained on but happy to be against.
Octavia: Strong 6L win second up this prep leading start to finish. Won’t have it that easy today. Could sneak a place.
She Can Skate: Has ability but needs to find a few more lengths today.
Hyperventilate: Can’t win off first three runs this prep.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg one: 3, 4, 8, 10
Strategy: Many progressive horses that could steal the show today. Quite happy to stick out Queen’s Ransom off the potential and the price looks to be solid currently sitting at $9. Very happy to touch around $10 for a small 0.5 unit win bet and $3 or so for a 2 unit place bet.
Caulfield Race 6
Catapulted: 4 wins 4 places from 8 first up runs which is very impressive (last start 1L behind Were Gonna Rock first up in WFA G3!). Been off nearly 6 months and top weight today. Has the ability, no doubt, but you would be more confident with inside information. If the money comes, may be the pick.
Kulgrinda: Good win last start at Moonee Valley but should find this much harder today. Can argue that she had the best run of the race with Galbraith working two wide the whole way and Alpha Proxima meeting too many backsides.
Winter King: Has the ability to win but is certainly short today. Off the first up run, need to find a few lengths.
Alpha Proxima: Unlucky last start blocked and blocked again. Gains 1kg on Kulgrinda today and this should be enough to turn it around on a more open track.
The Soldier: Won 9 from 18 first up (9 year old) down from Darwin. Has the ability and has won 24 from 46 at this distance but only once from 6 at class. Down to 54.5kg suits big time today as has been off much more weight. Won last prep against Outstandingly who ran well in last two weeks. Don’t dismiss.
Galbraith: Didn’t get the race run to suit last start at Moonee Valley. Will have a much better run today speed mapped to take the front and down 1kg. If looks calm and ready to run in the yard, will go very close.
Undeniably: Hard to have today off recent form lines of previous preps.
Esprit De Bullet: Good winning last two starts in Adelaide but this is a much harder race. Doesn’t look classy enough. Happy to be against.
Hotham Heights: Never won at distance (placed 4 times) and never won first up (placed all 5 times) but has won 2 from 3 at track. Beat Rebel Truce last start of last prep and comes into this class today with a big chance. Don’t dismiss.
Halle Rocks: Good win last start at the valley first up. Needs to improve again today but has the ability to win off 54kg.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie leg two: 2, 3, 4, 6, 9
Strategy: Very open race once this one. Galbraith to place looks a nice pick as always, but Alpha Proxima should be going close. Off previous form, Hotham heights looks massive overs. Should be $15 at maximum yet is showing $30 totes fixed. Completely unsure how I will handle this race. Will review in morning.
Caulfield Race 7
Chasse: Ran ‘ok’ lat start over the 1600m and up 0.5kg today. Looks up against it even though 2/2 at track. Hasn’t returned in career best form. If they sit closer to the speed today, could win.
Snow Alert: Hard to place. Hasn’t shown enough in last five runs.
Eraset: Ran ‘nice’ last start without threatening. Up 0.5kg today. Need to find a length or two today.
Spacecraft: Very strong front running performance at the valley last start and also at Flemington two back. Weighted nicely once again and from barrier 2 looks suited. Could run a slowly race today and have even more up his sleeve.
Bolton: Very poor first two runs this prep. Can’t have.
Westsouthwest: Up to a winable distance today although does want further. If positions a little closer to the front today will be coming late. Weighted nicely. Has won at track previously and 2 from 5 at distance.
Full Peal: Nice win last start at Ararat in a race time that was suited to those taking a sit. Up in class today and up 2kg. Will be there at the end. Won 4 from 5 at distance!
Elusive King: No chance on previous form.
Tuscan Fire: Very poor last two starts.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg three: 4, 7, 9
Strategy: Spacecraft should run on and win today if produces a similar performance to last start. The main dangers are Westsouthwest who looks really well suited at a big price and Full Peal who can’t be underestimated. 3 units Spacecraft to win. 0.75 units Westsouthwest to win and 0.60 units saver Full Peal
Caulfield Race 8
Emboldened: Good run last start, but there was a fairly large leader bias so ignore that form. Previous run has ability but this does look to be a hard field. Could go close off 3kg claim.
Outstandingly: Big run last start and probably should have won. Off 60kg again today and first time on track. Could run well and go close.
Regalmania: Very strong form lines having beaten home Launay last start over the 1400m. Down in class but up to 60kg. Did run 0.1L behind British General also three back and meets 1.5kg worse off today.
Dane The Rave: BIG run last start considering the leader bias. Don’t dismiss today and could be value.
Dash for Viz: Form lines look average at best with the greys race and then a geelong race which didn’t have the form lines hold up.
Magic Weekend: Won 1 from 7 first up and on previous form can’t win today.
Infinite Energy: BIG win two back at Flemington over the 1600m. Ignore last start when was lame after race, lost a plate and had a vet exam. If trained on, can win today.
Johnny Fiasco: Won on nicely first up and has a much better second up record. Could run well.
British General: Keeps putting in solid runs having won 3 of last 5. Won well first up and disappointed second up not winning. Down in class today but up 2.5kg. Can go close.
Le Bonsir: Hard to place. Showed a fair bit of ability but has disappointed to date. Looks outclassed today sadly.
Holy Heart: Progressive having won last four in a row making his way up the grades. Weighted nicely again today up another class. Barrier 12 a big issue but Schofield booking is positive.
King Buddy: Up in class today and keeps finding excuses.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie leg four: 2, 4, 5, 8, 10
Strategy: Not sure what we will do with this race. Very trappy and I want to see how the form lines work out throughout the day for some of the key runners, not to mention how the track plays and to get a horse that speedmaps well.
Rosehill Race 1
Very competitive race in which we are taking the Moonee Valley form lines from last night. Emergency Ward won very convincingly, a horse beaten by Arousing Suspicion by 1.8L last start. Weighted well today and from barrier 1 will get a good sit. The price looks value.
Confidence 70%
Rosehill Race 2
Not very keen on this race but the form around Choice Dawn seems to be solid at a reasonable price.
Confidence 60%
Rosehill Race 3
Good luck picking the winner in this one. Three horses all with chances coming out of the Golden Sunshine race. Grand Business looks to have the most upside of all of them down 2.5kg (gains 1.5 and 2.5kg on others in that race) while was only 1L or less behind and will appreciate the run. Heart of Tessta has some strong form lines also 0.8L win over Hidden Warrior who got the job done in similar class at Moonee Valley.
Confidence 70%
Rosehill Race 4
A few different form lines to get around here. The one we are liking is the Rose Pattern form. Titbit and Secluded are both up 0.5kg today. Both drew good barriers but Secluded will get the better run of the race from barrier 1. Both seem suited by the up to 1500m.
Confidence 70%
Rosehill Race 5
A few chance sin the race, but Travolta looks to have the most upside. That was an absolutely super win last start and he just kept finding and finding. Will be hard to beat and is best weighted today.
Confidence 75%
Rosehill Race 6
A super race with about 10 different chances so it is all about finding the horse far enough into a prep with the most upside and best weighted. Galah is one of those with a big chance. Should have won last start at Flemington and should appreciate the shorter straight from barrier 3. Cabernet has some super form lines behind Koonoomoo two back and then beating home Skyerush last start. Darci Be Good won well last start and tow back went close with excuses. Malavio and Isopach meet Darci Be Good better off at the weights and Malavio beat Isopach this prep. Due to the price and how well weighted, Isopach is the value E/W pick here.
Confidence 60%
Rosehill Race 7
Many a chance in this race but our eyes are on Paramount Pete again. Ignore last start at Canberra in a lesser race that was run in a VERY slow time. Was always going to struggle to make up that distance. Will get a pace on up front as he wants today and off 54kg will be coming late. Looks overs for the place.
Confidence 75%
Rosehill Race 8
There looks to be a big speed up the front but Zaratone is set to take the front. He didn’t handle the straight track at Flemington last start and back to the corners will appreciate the drop back in grade. Weighted very well off 58.5kg considering the drop back and barrier 8 isn’t the worst barrier to have been drawn. Will look the winner at the 200m, all about hoping out the swoopers. Suggest a lay at around the $2 mark if you are backing.
Confidence 72%
Eagle Farm Race 7
A very competitive main race of the day (Group 3). The two main runners for us are Belltone and Excellantes.
Morpheville Race 6
Sabie looks to be the best prepared for this race today
Morphetville Race 7
Draw Forward looks suited here today off the weights. The form lines hold up here. Saver bet on Rescue Mission.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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