Welcome to the weekends form. As expected we had a horrible one last weekend. There wasn’t much confidence about our tips at all. This week we are not looking at every race, but focusing on races we feel are worth looking at and the value around the four major meets. We will be updating our tips as the day goes depending on how the tracks are racing so please remember to follow us on twitter @TheProfitsComAu.
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au/tab/form/summary.php?meetingid=35665&raceid=311909
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Doomben Race 5
We collected last week on a horse we were very keen on in Shez Sinsational at $6.50. Six O’Clock News is a horse with 1.5L 3rd form behind her has it’s first start in Australia in this race. A 7 year old who can stay for days. She will run a very good race and position mid to back of field the whole way. Should be too good in the final 200m and get over the top of them.
Watch out for Ironstein who hasn’t produced any form over the last 3 runs but is due and Hume who is way overs and a favourite horse of ours.
Confidence: 80%
Doomben Race 7
With the scartching of Buffering this is how a hard race to call.
The race will be run at a tempo to suit Temple of Boom, it all depends on the track. Think others in the race are better weighted.
Woorim has been speed up for this race but you never know what you will get with the horse. Feeling is that it will be there late with Elite Falls.
Neeson is a runner we have been on the last three starts in some way and it has finished 0.4, 0.8 and 0.2L behind the winners. The switch from a Good to a Dead track may be the differnce along with barrier 9 and hopefully not a 3 wide run this time out.
Facile Tigre is the horse in the race we like the most. The only problems with the horse are major weight issues. It hasn’t carried this weight for a long time and meets many others worse off. Could surprise us all.. will be there at the end as long as it jumps well.
Beaded back into a winnable race. Can’t discount but can’t have here either!
There has been some big mail for Varenna Miss this week. She ran an ok race first up but not sure if she is up to this.
Elite Falls will get too far back and off 55kg should find it too hard to make up the ground.
Satin Shoes is the most interesting runner in this race. A horse with great potential, she has just been falling short as of late. Ran a great second to Rain Affair two back and was a little further back than normal last start. A good sit and go filly with a shot.
Finally, Sea Siren is now the favourite after two great performances behind and infront of Streama. With Cassidy onboard, you would suspect he will ride her with vigor and lead up this race and control the speed. She has a very good shot here off the weights, but may just find one with too much quality.
Confidence: 70%
Doomben Race 8
Solzhenitsyn has drawn the perfect barrier for the horse in this run. Last two runs out has just been too far back and missed out by a small margin. Should sit closer to midfield this run and get there in time provided he is given a good ride.
Confidence: 70%
Rosehill Race 4
DelaBombell has been running quality times in quality races recently. This is a big step down in grade and with the claim, she comes in very well. Expect a bold run, she will just win.
Confidence: 80%
Caulfield Race 1
Champagne Ruby was very impressive it’s last two runs with a big 4L and 5L win over 1400. Expect a bold run.
City of Song is the main danger. She will run a solid race as always.
Confidence: 80%
Caulfield Race 2
Not very keen on this race due to little form to follow but the top weight in Big Chill seems to be suited by the distance and class.
Caulfield Race 3
Not very keen on this type of quality of race. Inaura, Manila Jewel and The Night’s Hot all good chances.
Caulfield Race 4
Larry’s Never Late seems to be safely held with the 61kg on board.
Magnifique Soleil is the class runner of this race. After winning his last three and keeping a comfortable weight, he looks suited once again here. Nick Hall onboard and barrier 5, everything seems to be in his favor.
TurnItUp has been running well this prep with his last two runs and should be close in this one.
Finally, Alrouz is a very interesting runner. Has some good times to it’s name the last two starts and can go forward and lead this one out at big odds.
Confidence: 82%
Caulfield Race 5
Classy Chloe ran very well at Morphetville last week and comes in here off 54kg from barrier 6 which suits her for a leading position. Is 3 wins 2 places from the distance and has never finished outside the placings. Looks suited here, especially if the track is presenting well for forward running.
Stratgraphy is a horse that just runs well. Last prep it was running good times and hopefully it has trained on. Will be there or there abouts at the end! Does look harshly done by in the weights department though.
Finally, we can’t ignore Platelet. Another in the race who hasn’t finished outside the places. She wasn’t suited to the very very fast run 1100 race first up at Flemington and still came home with a massive 33.08 time. Down 1.5kg here, looks suited.
Confidence: 75%
Caulfield Race 6
The class runner in this race is Stratcombe. He has been head and shoulders the best horse in this class over this type of distance in Melbourne over the past month. He comes into this with an extra 2kg on his back and that shouldn’t affect him.
Confidence: 80%
Caulfield Race 7
Rue Maple was stunning in victory first up and comes into this race on the same track, in the same class, off the same weight. Will run very well here once again.
There’s Only One is a horse of the highest quality. Coming into this race off 52.5kg, she is very well weighted and looks set here first up.
Confidence: 70%
Caulfield Race 8
Pago Rock was luckless last start and should have won easily. There was absolutely no pace in the race which meant there was no way out for Pago Rock. That shouldn’t be the case here and he will get a dream run into it.
Lethal Arrow didn’t run well at all for us first up. The horse does have a much better second up record and we expect a fast pace to be set out front.
Confidence: 65%
Morphetville Race 2
Placement comes into this race off a great win last up. The big problem is that Katey Mallyon can’t claim in this race and the horse is up 6.5kg. This is a big step up.
Dance with Her is the quality horse in this race having won 3 of her last 5 races. She is wanting a wet track so if the track is Good, look elsewhere.
Confidence: 65%
Morphetville Race 5
Lucky Penny was suited by the front running tempo at Caulfield last start and given a perfect ride. Should be able to do the same here and just simply win. The horse is all quality and heart.
Confidence: 85%
Morphetville Race 7
Black Caviar – Enough said
Confidence: 110000%
Morphetville Race 8
If you are in the Quaddie here, you are certainly going wide because there are quite a few chances.
Arctic Flight was mega impressive in it’s last two runs and is actually down in class here. Comes in off the same 54kg and will try and lead this one up putting down a massive time. Boss on board is a big bonus also. Will be hard to catch.
Bonnie Mac ran well her first two runs in Australia. Winning form is good form and 4 wins in a row is hard to beat.
Golden Penny has some big form lines. Ignore the last start of Golden Penny and she is a big chance here.
All Friared Up is a quality horse over from Perth. Run well in this class and is suited by the distance. Will run very well.
Finally, Sistine Angel and Power Princess both come into this race with good runs in previous races. Both haven’t won in a while and just feel they need to produce a better run than the last few to win.
Confidence: 60%
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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