Day 4 of the Goodwood Carnival kicks off this evening from 11pm AEST. We continued on with the good run on Day 3 with Big Orange winning well at very nice odds, while our other best bet was rather unlucky showing a lot of greeness only being able to finish 2nd on the day. One clear standout plays today while two runners on the each-way also appeal. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Day 1 Result: -3.75 units
Day 2 Result: +3.75 units
Day 3 Result: +6.08 units
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Goodwood Race 1 – 2400m – Glorious Stakes Group 3
1. Ayrad: Four runs this prep. 2nd in Group 3 class three runs back. Last start won in Listed grade back to the 2000m. Best runs have him in this.
2. Berkshire: Nice enough 2nd behind Scottish last start. Group 2 winner over 1600m as a 2YO. First time over 2400m.
3. Elite Army: First up over 2400m beat Scotland in a strong display at Ascot. Disappointed the last two starts though which is a concern. Clearly has ability but has to improve onwards again.
4. Kings Fete: Moore takes the ride on this talented gelding. Fairly beaten for mine last start at Ascot when behind Kinema. Previous start also fairly beaten. Best runs in the past are still not good enough to win this… but suggestion is he will improve again today.
5. Majeed: First up winner in much easier. Hard to have on previous form.. can’t suggest beating this field.
6. Mount Logan: Very strong win first up at course and distance in listed grade. Previous preps runs in CLS2 class were also strong. Last start a little disappointing at Ascot.. 3 runs 3 wins at Goodwood. Big chance.
8. Loving Things: 3rd last start on softer surface to Endless Time in Group 2 FM grade. Previous start beat Yarrow who failed to place yesterday.
Comments: Mount Logan is the standout here on my ratings and form. Consistent type that has 3 runs for 3 wins at this track.. it’s hard to ignore the horse in this grade against this lot.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Mount Logan for 0.75 units @ $4.50 to win. Mount Logan for 1.25 units @ $1.63 to place (3 places paid with Betfair at this price).
Goodwood Race 4 – 1000m – King George Stakes Group 2
1. Cotai Glory: Close at Ascot two runs back when 0.3L 2nd to Profitable in Group 1 grade. Best run was on a soft track which won’t be found today. Went around big odds last start for a reason.
2. Finsbury Square: Been running well over in France. Group 3 winner over 1000m on a firm track.. but the ratings out of those runs are well below whats needed to measure up here.
3. Goken: Ran well for a 1.3L 3rd behind Cotai Glory and Profitable two runs back for what was a peak run of his career. Has to find a new level.
4. Goldream: Filles/Mares Group 1 winner two preps back over 1000m. Didn’t find much over in Dubai. Group 1 winner at Ascot in 2015 also over 1000m. Both best runs in the past have been on firmer tracks and goes well first up. Respect.
5. Jungle Cat: Another who ran well two back at Ascot when 4th behind Profitable in Group 1 class. Wasn’t really suited that day by the soft track as well IMO… Previous start was 2nd behind Profitable and previous run 1.8L 4th to Buffering in Dubai. Last start a disappointing run.
6. Line of Reason: Massive step up in class today for this talented type. Hard to have in this grade!
7. Move in Time: Group 3 winner on heavy in France two preps back. Has been well below his best this prep and looks hard to suggest here on this ground.
8. Muthmir: Group 2 winner last prep with a FM-Group 1 3rd behind GOldream last prep. This prep has run some good races but hasn’t been winning. Was 2L off Buffering in Dubai in the Group 1. Last start a nice run 3rd to Marsha in a high rating race.
9. Pearl Secret: Group 2 winner in 2015. Close 4th in Group 1 class last prep. Two runs this prep were far off a win. Needs to improve.
10. Spirit Quartz: Group 2 placed in the past. FOur runs this prep and was a nice run first up and won okay enough at Cork but has to find more here.
11. Take Cover: Well beaten last start. Previous run in Listed grade beating Cotai Glory was a good win. Needs to run a career peak.
12. Divine: Making her way through the grades. Big win three back over 1200m in FM-GP3 grade. Last start should have won in Group 3 class. Step back to 1000m a big disadvantage.
13. Ajaya: Horrible run first up.. disappointing. Was a good 2YO horse down the straight.. better over 1200m. Not for mine.
14. Kachy: Surprised with a good run two back in 3YO grade behind Quiet Reflection for 2nd. Last start well beaten in harder race over 1000m though for mine behind Marsha. Best has him in this.
15. Washington DC: Had his chance the last two starts and has been fairly beaten. Step back to 1000m based on last wins obviously looks to be suitable…. but i’m not convinced he is going well enough to back.
16. Easton Angel: Three runs this prep for two wins and a close 2nd. Fairly weighted again here today and has to improve onwards to beat Marsha.
17. Marsha: A group class rating was recorded in the win last start beating easton Angel coming off a nice win prior to that. Has to repeat the ratings here today which is certainly questionable for mine especially on the firmer track.
Comments: Mulrennan won’t be making the same mistake this time with Easton Angel and will be letting her go far sooner in the straight. She has the X factor in this race for mine and will be very well suited at this track condition. Expect the course record to be broken.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Easton Angel for 1 unit Each-Way @ $8.40/$3.15
Goodwood Race 6 – 1400m – Queens Plate Fillies Stakes – FM-GP3
1. Queen Catrine: Fair enough win last start with top weight in similar grade of race. Was only 6 to beat that day and the field is much harder here IMO. has ability to win.
2. Alfajer: Hasn’t won since 2014. First up showed nothing. Only run last prep well beaten in easier. Hard to have.
3. Always Smile: Class horse. Competed all three runs this prep in top quality races having won first up at York in Listed grade then placing in MS-Gp2 and FM-Gp1 class the last two starts. Back to 1400m looks well ideal here for this talented horse. Big chance.
4. Growing Glory: FM-GP3 win in much easier race than this. Step up in grade again here. Past runs suggest she has ability.
5. Namhroodah: Fairly beaten 3rd last start at Ascot in FM-listed grade behind Red Box coming off a CL3 win before that. Never measured up to this grade the issue.
6. Marenko: Group 2 placed in fillies 2YO grade last prep when 2nd in France and at Docaster. Won first up this prep before winning well 2nd up in Group 3 3F grade. Last start in Group 1 was well beaten at Ascot. Step back to 1400m looks ideal.
7. Alamode: Shown nothing both runs this prep. Her best is good enough to measure up but hasn’t shown that in a long time.
8. Al Jazi: Nice type that has been measuring up over in 3YO grade in France. 2YO winner over there and 3YO winner in those grades around these distance. Has to improve though in this grade.
9. Besharah: Nice enough run 2nd to Ridge Ranger last start over 1200m at York in FM Group 3 grade. Three runs back 1.5L 4th to La Cressonniere in France in a 3YO Group 1 race and previous run to that was a good 3rd in Group 1 class also. Previous prep won in Group 3 and Group 2 grade. Best runs have been on softer tracks.
11. Mise En Rose: Fair enough win last start to rate well here. Has to improve onwards and upwards to be considered.
12. Opal Tiara: Very strong listed grade win last start over Red Box who has since won. Group 2 placed last prep at Doncaster.
Comments: This has generally been a low grade rating race over the past couple of years with timeform ratings of 114, 121, 121 and 124 taking it out the previous four years. Always Smile and Besharah are the only two horses that have gone above 121 ratings in the past, both above the last year mark of 124. On form lines, they are the two standouts to my eye also and i’m more than happy to bet both here knowing that if a horse doesn’t jump up 5 or more ratings points, these two can run below their best to still get us a win.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Always Smile for 3 units @ $2.60. Besharah for 1 unit @ $6.20.
